Palantir Stock (PLTR) Before the Bell on December 1, 2025: Worst Month in Two Years, Analyst Downgrades and Big-Money Moves

As U.S. markets prepare to reopen on Monday, December 1, 2025, Palantir Technologies Inc. (NYSE: PLTR) heads into the new month with a mix of blockbuster fundamentals and bruised sentiment after its worst monthly performance since 2023.

Palantir closed Friday, November 28, at $168.45, up about 1.6% on the day and around $169.03 in after-hours trading, valuing the company at roughly $401 billion with a trailing P/E above 360x and forward P/E near 180x. ^[1]

Yet despite those lofty numbers, shares fell about 16–17% in November, marking Palantir’s sharpest monthly decline since the August 2023 AI sell-off. ^[2] That slump came even as the company delivered one of the strongest AI earnings prints of the year.

Below is a news-driven rundown of what happened between November 28 and 30, 2025, and what it could mean for PLTR heading into Monday’s pre-market session.

Key Takeaways Before the December 1 Open

November was ugly: Palantir stock dropped roughly 16–17% in November, its worst month in two years, even though Q3 results crushed expectations. ^[3]
Valuation is the flashpoint: Multiple outlets now highlight Palantir trading at 100x+ sales, 200x+ forward earnings, and more than 60x book value, with several models calling the stock significantly overvalued at current prices. ^[4]
Analysts are split but cautious: Wall Street consensus sits at “Hold”, with average 12‑month price targets clustered around $167–$187, only slightly above or even below Friday’s close. ^[5]
Big money is both buying and selling: Recent filings show some institutions adding to PLTR while others trim exposure; at the same time, insiders sold roughly $180+ million of stock in the last quarter, and ARK Invest continued to reduce its position in late November. ^[6]

Where Palantir Stock Stands After Friday’s Close

According to real-time data from StockAnalysis, Palantir ended the November 28 session at: ^[7]

Last close: $168.45 (+1.62% on the day)
After-hours quote: $169.03 (+0.34%)
52-week range: $63.40 – $207.52
Market cap: ~$401.5 billion
Trailing EPS (ttm): $0.43
Valuation:
- Trailing P/E: ~366x
- Forward P/E: ~183x
- Analyst consensus rating: Hold
- Consensus 12‑month target on that platform: $166.90 (slight downside vs. Friday’s close)

MarketBeat’s pre-weekend recap paints a similar picture: Palantir traded up about 1.6% on Friday, hitting an intraday high of $168.80 on much lighter-than-normal volume. The article highlighted a P/E around 401x, a market cap just over $401 billion, and reiterated that most covering analysts remain cautious despite recent target hikes. ^[8]

In simple terms: fundamentals are surging, but the valuation remains extreme, and the stock is still sitting roughly 18–20% below its early-November all-time high near $207.

November 28–30: The Headlines That Set Up December for PLTR

November 28: AI Rally Ends, but Palantir’s “Worst Month” Story Emerges

On Friday, broader U.S. indices extended a five-session winning streak, even as investors digested a volatile November marked by heavy rotation within high-multiple tech and AI names. ^[9]

For Palantir specifically, several outlets framed the day in the context of November’s drawdown:

CNBC, via Ground News, noted that Palantir posted strong Q3 earnings but still fell 16% in November, its worst month in two years, as investors questioned rich AI valuations and reacted to a short position disclosed by Michael Burry, the famed “Big Short” investor. ^[10]
TipRanks echoed that theme, pointing out that PLTR’s roughly 16% slide over the last four weeks coincided with a broader pullback in AI-linked equities and that the stock still trades at “nosebleed” valuation levels—by their estimate, nearly 700x future earnings depending on the forecast used. ^[11]
A MarketWatch round‑up of November’s laggards in tech put Palantir among the worst performers in the sector, pegging its monthly drop at about 17.3%. ^[12]

Yet on the same day, MarketBeat highlighted Palantir trading 1.6% higher to about $168.44, still above its 200‑day moving average and supported by a string of post‑earnings target bumps from firms like Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, and Mizuho, even as overall consensus remains a cautious Hold. ^[13]

Bottom line for November 28: The market ended the month acknowledging Palantir’s phenomenal year, but the narrative pivoted decisively toward “excellent company, brutal month, demanding valuation.”

November 29: Downgrades, “Worst Month in Two Years,” and ARK’s Selling

Saturday’s news cycle drilled deeper into why Palantir suffered such a steep pullback.

1. TipRanks: Worst Month Since August 2023, Burry vs. Karp

TipRanks ran a widely cited piece titled “Palantir Stock (PLTR) Suffers Worst Month in Two Years During November.” Key points: ^[14]

Performance: PLTR plunged 16% over the last four weeks, the worst monthly showing since August 2023.
Drivers:
- Investors rotated out of expensive AI trades amid growing bubble fears.
- Michael Burry disclosed a large short position in Palantir, amplifying concerns about valuation.
Valuation metrics:
- Forward P/E estimated at levels high enough that even after the sell‑off, Palantir still trades at hundreds of times forward earnings.
Street view: TipRanks tallied a consensus Hold rating, based on a mix of Buy, Hold and Sell calls, with a mean price target around $187.87, implying roughly 10–12% upside from recent levels.

The article also cited commentary from Jefferies and Deutsche Bank describing Palantir’s valuation as “extreme” and “very difficult to wrap our heads around,” underscoring how polarizing the stock has become on Wall Street.

2. MarketBeat: Wall Street Zen Cuts Rating to “Hold”

On November 29, MarketBeat reported that Wall Street Zen downgraded Palantir from “Buy” to “Hold”, reinforcing the sense that analysts are pumping the brakes after the stock’s massive 2025 run. ^[15]

MarketBeat’s numbers:

Consensus rating: Hold
- 5 Buy
- 17 Hold
- 2 Sell
Average price target:$172.28
Valuation snapshot:
- Market cap around $401.5B
- P/E near 401x
- Strong Q3 beat (EPS $0.21 vs. $0.17 est.; revenue $1.18B, +62.8% YoY), but with heavy insider selling—about 1.15 million shares worth ~$186 million over the last quarter.

The downgrade didn’t change the overarching Street stance—Palantir is still seen as a high-growth AI leader, but one priced as if almost nothing can go wrong.

3. ARK Invest Trims Palantir

A detailed aggregation from ts2.tech pulled together several November data points and reported that Cathie Wood’s ARK ETFs sold roughly 354,955 shares of Palantir on November 26, worth about $58 million, continuing a multi‑day pattern of trimming the position as the stock rallied earlier in the month. TS2 Tech

That selling landed alongside confirmation that corporate insiders had disposed of about 1.15 million shares in the prior quarter, keeping insider ownership around 9.2%. TS2 Tech+2MarketBeat+2

4. Bulls vs. Bears, in One Day’s Coverage

The ts2.tech wrap‑up framed November 29’s Palantir news as a tug‑of‑war: TS2 Tech

Bullish side:
- Q3 delivered 63% revenue growth, a Rule-of-40 score of 114, and record total contract value of about $2.8B. ^[16]
- U.S. commercial business continues to explode, with triple‑digit growth and accelerating AI adoption across industries. ^[17]
- Several large institutions and pension funds have been adding to positions, signaling deep-pocketed conviction in Palantir as an “AI operating system” for enterprises and defense. ^[18]
Bearish side:
- November’s 16–17% drop despite a blowout quarter suggests expectations may simply be too high. ^[19]
- High-profile skeptics, led by Burry, are openly shorting PLTR and other AI names, calling the sector a bubble. ^[20]
- ETF selling (ARK) plus heavy insider sales raise questions about how much upside remains at current prices. TS2 Tech+2MarketBeat+2

November 30: Valuation Warnings, Long-Term Scenarios and Fresh 13F Filings

Sunday’s coverage focused less on price action (markets are closed) and more on valuation models and fund flows.

1. Simply Wall St: “Overvalued by 129.5%”

Simply Wall St published an in‑depth piece asking whether Palantir is still a smart bet after a 124% year‑to‑date gain and a slew of new AI partnerships. ^[21]

Highlights from their analysis:

Performance snapshot:
- Up 124% YTD and 151% over the last 12 months.
- Down 13.4% over the past month, but up 8.8% in the last week—underscoring the volatility.
Discounted cash flow (DCF):
- Estimated fair value of about $73.41 per share, vs. a market price around $168.
- They conclude Palantir is trading at roughly 129.5% above its DCF value, labeling it “OVERVALUED.”
Price-to-book (PB):
- PLTR PB ratio: ~60.9x
- Software industry average: ~3.4x
- Peer average: ~40.4x
- Again, the stock screens as significantly overvalued on their metrics.

The article doesn’t dispute Palantir’s growth engine—it explicitly notes the company’s powerful AI tailwinds—but it frames the current valuation as requiring near‑perfect execution for years.

2. Nasdaq / Motley Fool: “Too Much Growth Baked In”

A separate analysis, syndicated on Nasdaq and authored by The Motley Fool, tackled the question “Where Will Palantir Stock Be 3 Years From Now?”. ^[22]

Key takeaways:

Palantir trades at roughly 106x sales and 224x forward earnings, making it “one of the most expensive stocks in the market.”
Even under a very bullish scenario—60% compound annual revenue growth over three years and a 40% profit margin—Palantir’s earnings in that model would justify a market cap around $320B at a generous 50x earnings multiple.
Since Palantir’s current market cap is already in the neighborhood of $390–401B, that math implies little or even negative price appreciation over the next three years if the stock ever re‑rates to a more “normal” premium multiple.

The conclusion: great business, questionable entry point at today’s price.

3. 24/7 Wall St: Still One of 2025’s Top Performers

24/7 Wall St reminded readers that even after November’s slump, Palantir remains one of the top‑performing stocks of 2025, with shares climbing roughly 123% this year on surging demand for its AI data‑analytics platforms. ^[23]

The piece framed Palantir as a benchmark for AI‑driven returns, then profiled other stocks that managed to outperform even PLTR this year. The message for Palantir investors: the stock has already priced in a lot of success relative to the rest of the market.

4. New 13F Filings: Mixed but Net Institutional Interest

MarketBeat’s Sunday filings round‑ups revealed a mixed picture among institutional investors: ^[24]

VestGen Advisors LLC
- Sold 17,738 shares in Q2, cutting its PLTR stake by 9.4% to 171,616 shares (~$23.4M), still its 17th‑largest holding.
Schroder Investment Management Group
- Added 49,735 shares, boosting holdings by 4% to about 1.30M shares (~$177.7M) and underscoring continued institutional conviction.
First National Advisers LLC
- Opened a new position of 2,149 shares worth roughly $293,000.

Across these reports, MarketBeat notes that about 45.7% of Palantir’s float is held by institutions, while insiders retain around 9.2% after significant selling, including large November transactions from CEO Alex Karp and other senior executives. ^[25]

Fundamentals: “Otherworldly” Growth Still Intact

All of this volatility sits against a backdrop of exceptional operating performance.

According to Palantir’s Q3 2025 results and related coverage: ^[26]

Q3 revenue:$1.18 billion
- +63% year‑over‑year
- +18% sequentially
Adjusted EPS:$0.21 (vs. $0.17 consensus)
Rule of 40 score:114 — an unusually high figure even among top‑tier software names.
U.S. commercial revenue:
- Up 121% YoY to about $397 million, driving much of the overall growth.
Government revenue:
- Up roughly 50%+ YoY, with continued strength in defense and intelligence contracts.
Profitability:
- Net income surged to around $475 million for the quarter.
Guidance:
- Q4 revenue guided to roughly $1.327–$1.331 billion, again ahead of Street estimates.
- Full‑year 2025 revenue outlook raised to around $4.396–$4.4 billion, marking the third consecutive guidance hike.

In commentary following earnings, CEO Alex Karp described Palantir’s AI‑driven growth as “otherworldly” and called the commercial business a “juggernaut,” as the company’s Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP) bootcamps continue to rapidly convert pilots into multi‑year deals. ^[27]

A recent MarketBeat feature went further, arguing that Palantir is not just riding the AI boom but “orchestrating” it, acting as the software layer on top of NVIDIA’s AI hardware and benefiting from the same demand that’s powering GPU sales. The article also notes that commercial customers now make up roughly 45% of Palantir’s revenue, up sharply from past years. ^[28]

How the Market Is Framing Palantir Ahead of Monday’s Open

Putting the weekend headlines together, three narratives dominate the conversation going into December 1:

1. The Bull Case: Category Leader in Enterprise AI

Bulls argue that Palantir is one of a small handful of “must‑own” AI platforms:

Triple‑digit growth in U.S. commercial revenue and a Rule-of-40 score above 100 suggest a rare combination of hyper‑growth and expanding profitability. ^[29]
A long runway remains: Palantir’s total commercial customer count is still in the low hundreds, leaving a huge potential base across industries. ^[30]
The stock, even after November’s pullback, is up well over 100% YTD, reflecting strong execution rather than mere hype—at least in the bull view. ^[31]
MarketBeat and other outlets suggest recent price action may have established a technical “floor” near $150, with the current level around $168 representing a pullback from highs rather than a broken story. ^[32]

2. The Bear (or Cautious) Case: Bubble-Level Valuation

Skeptics counter that even great businesses can be terrible investments at the wrong price:

Valuation metrics like 100x+ sales, 200x+ forward earnings, and 60x+ book value are historically associated with bubble conditions, making Palantir exquisitely sensitive to any slowdown in growth or shift in AI sentiment. ^[33]
DCF models from Simply Wall St and others suggest the stock may be trading well over 100% above intrinsic value, even under optimistic scenarios. ^[34]
Michael Burry’s short, plus cautious notes from firms like Jefferies and Deutsche Bank, have turned Palantir into a symbol of froth in the AI trade. ^[35]
Heavy insider selling and ETF trimming (notably from ARK Invest) reinforce the perception that some sophisticated holders are taking profits after a huge run. TS2 Tech+2MarketBeat+2

3. The Middle Ground: Great Business, “Hold” Rating

Most professional research lands somewhere in between:

Across platforms like StockAnalysis, MarketBeat and TipRanks, Palantir’s average rating is “Hold”, with price targets generally clustered around the mid‑$160s to high‑$180s—not far from Friday’s close. ^[36]
Articles from outlets like MarketBeat and Simply Wall St acknowledge Palantir’s elite fundamentals, but argue that much of that success is already reflected in today’s price, leaving a narrow margin of safety. ^[37]

What to Watch for PLTR in Early December (Information Only, Not Advice)

As trading resumes on Monday, December 1, investors watching Palantir may focus on:

AI Sentiment and Macro Risk Appetite
If the broader AI complex—NVIDIA, other high-multiple software names—stabilizes or rebounds, Palantir could benefit. Conversely, any renewed de‑rating of expensive growth stocks could keep pressure on PLTR given its extreme multiples. ^[38]
Follow‑Through on Institutional Flows
New 13F updates, ETF holdings reports and further insider transaction disclosures will help clarify whether November’s selling was a one‑off or the start of a larger de‑risking trend. ^[39]
Contract Wins and AI Bootcamp Updates
Additional government or large commercial deals, or new data on AIP bootcamp conversion, could bolster the bull case that Palantir is still in the early innings of monetizing enterprise AI. ^[40]
Valuation Re‑Rating – Up or Down
Any shift in analyst targets or ratings—particularly if more firms join Wall Street Zen in downgrading PLTR, or if major banks upgrade it on the back of Q3 momentum—could influence how the market balances growth vs. valuation. ^[41]

Final Word

Heading into the December 1, 2025 open, Palantir stands at a crossroads:

Operationally, it is delivering record revenue, surging AI demand, and rising profitability.
From a market perspective, it just endured its worst month in two years, weighed down by stretched valuation metrics, short‑seller attention, and notable insider and ETF selling.

For traders and long‑term investors alike, the next leg in Palantir’s story may hinge less on whether the business continues to grow—most coverage assumes it will—and more on whether the market remains willing to pay a massive premium for that growth.

This article is for informational and news purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Always perform your own research or consult a licensed financial adviser before making investment decisions.

References