Woolworths Group (ASX:WOW) Share Price: JPMorgan Upgrade, New Class Action and What to Expect Before 1 December 2025

As the ASX prepares to open on Monday, 1 December 2025, Woolworths Group Ltd (ASX: WOW) is firmly in the spotlight.

In the space of three days (28–30 November), investors saw:

A 3.2% share price spike on Friday after a JPMorgan upgrade
Fresh bullish and defensive long‑term commentary from several analysts and outlets
The launch of a new shareholder class action over staff underpayments
Updated valuation and earnings forecasts that show Woolworths as defensive – but far from cheap

Here’s how the story looks heading into Monday’s session.

Where Woolworths shares closed before the 1 December open

Woolworths Group shares closed on Friday, 28 November 2025 at A$29.32, up 3.24% for the day, on heavy volume of about 5.3 million shares. ^[1]

According to StockAnalysis and other market data providers, that price: ^[2]

Marks a weekly gain of roughly 4.4% versus A$28.08 a week earlier
Caps a rebound of around 8–9% for November, from late‑October levels near A$27
Leaves the stock still below its highs earlier in 2025, after a sharp sell‑off in August following softer‑than‑expected sales and profit numbers ^[3]

On Friday, Woolworths was one of the stand‑out movers within the S&P/ASX 200, helping the consumer staples sector outpace the broader market. A news.com.au market wrap noted that while the index finished little changed on the day, Woolworths rallied more than 3% after a broker upgrade. ^[4]

By contrast, rivals have had a much stronger year:

A recent analysis pointed out that Coles Group Ltd (ASX: COL) is up about 18% in 2025, while Woolworths is down around 7% year to date, underlining how far Woolworths is still playing catch‑up. ^[5]

That underperformance sets the stage for why the late‑November bounce – and the new risks – matter heading into December.

The 28 November catalyst: JPMorgan’s upgrade and price target hike

The main driver of Friday’s jump in the Woolworths share price was a JPMorgan rating upgrade.

On 27 November 2025, JPMorgan: ^[6]

Upgraded Woolworths from Neutral to Overweight
Raised its 12‑month price target from A$29.50 to A$31.00
Cited improving sales momentum under the retailer’s new commercial leadership

A deeper write‑up by Sharecafe on 28 November expanded on the note: ^[7]

The broker pointed to stronger sales trends after changes to Woolworths’ commercial team
It highlighted initiatives such as:
- Sharper focus on impulse categories
- More aggressive loyalty and promotional campaigns
- Enhanced online offerings
- A more dynamic “high‑low” pricing strategy
JPMorgan expects these tactics to give a short‑term “sugar hit” to second‑quarter sales as Woolworths rolls into the crucial Christmas trading period

Markets liked what they saw: within a day of that note, Woolworths stock had shrugged off much of its August–September gloom and re‑rated towards that A$31 target.

What other commentators said about Woolworths on 28 November

Friday was also busy for long‑term takes on Woolworths shares, much of it framed around the stock as a defensive anchor:

1. A “decade‑long” defensive compounder

In an article titled roughly “3 ASX stocks I’d trust with $10,000 for the next decade” on 28 November, The Motley Fool included Woolworths alongside higher‑growth names. Their Woolworths pitch, in summary: ^[8]

Woolworths is unlikely to match tech‑style hyper‑growth, but
As Australia’s largest supermarket operator, it enjoys steady demand for groceries and essentials in almost any economic climate
That makes its earnings defensive and its dividends relatively dependable, which can be attractive over a 10‑year horizon

The focus wasn’t on short‑term catalysts, but on resilience, market dominance and income.

2. Kalkine Media: blue‑chip staple for income seekers

Also on 28 November, Kalkine Media published “A2M and WOW Shares: Key ASX Stocks Capturing Investor Attention.” Its take on Woolworths: ^[9]

Describes Woolworths as a “blue‑chip staple” of the ASX
Emphasises its leading market share across Australian groceries
Notes its diversified revenue streams (supermarkets, Big W, PFD foodservice, and other B2B operations)
Highlights its history of consistent dividend payments, casting WOW as a defensive dividend stock suitable for more conservative portfolios

In other words, while short‑term price action may be choppy, the long‑term investment case is still often framed around stability and cash flows rather than explosive growth.

29 November: a new shareholder class action lands

If Friday’s story was all about upgrades and momentum, Saturday 29 November brought potentially more serious news for shareholders:

A fresh underpayments‑related shareholder claim

The Australian Financial Review reported that Woolworths has been hit with a new underpayments‑related shareholder class action, funded by litigation house Litigation Lending Services, and that the company intends to defend the claim. ^[10]

While that article sits behind a paywall, more detail is available from the dedicated claim website woolworthsshareholderclassaction.com, run by law firm Dutlaw. ^[11]

According to that site, the class action:

Is filed in the Federal Court of Australia under proceeding NSD1995/2025
Is brought on behalf of Woolworths shareholders who bought shares between 2010 and 2025
Alleges that during this period Woolworths failed to properly record and pay entitlements owed to many salaried employees
Claims that by not recognising those wage liabilities in its financial statements, the company:
- Understated expenses,
- Overstated profits, and
- Therefore artificially inflated its share price

The action alleges that this amounted to misleading or deceptive conduct and other disclosure breaches, causing loss to investors who bought at those inflated prices.

The claim is third‑party funded by Litigation Lending Services, which means group members don’t pay legal costs out of pocket; instead, the funder seeks reimbursement and a commission if there is a successful recovery, subject to court approval. ^[12]

How this ties into Woolworths’ underpayment saga

The new shareholder suit builds on years of wage‑underpayment issues at Woolworths and Coles:

Woolworths first disclosed widespread underpayments to salaried supermarket staff back in 2019. ^[13]
In September 2025, the Federal Court handed down a major decision in combined regulatory and class action proceedings against both chains, finding long‑running underpayments of store‑based managers under the retail award. ^[14]
Subsequent reporting suggested Woolworths’ total wage remediation bill could exceed A$1 billion, once interest, super and on‑costs are included – well above its original estimates. ^[15]

The new shareholder action effectively argues that equity investors also deserve compensation if they overpaid for shares because the wage problem wasn’t fully reflected in past accounts.

Heading into 1 December, the market has yet to fully price whether this case will be another expensive distraction or a manageable legal overhang. But it adds a fresh layer of uncertainty on top of the existing regulatory and employee claims.

How strong is Woolworths’ operating performance right now?

Behind the legal noise, Woolworths has been trying to rebuild trading momentum.

Q1 FY26 sales: modest growth, lots of discounting

On 28 October 2025, Woolworths reported first‑quarter FY26 sales of A$18.48 billion, a 2.7% increase on the prior year and slightly ahead of analyst forecasts. ^[16]

Key details from Reuters and industry outlets include: ^[17]

Australian Food sales rose 2.1% year on year
Food sales excluding tobacco were stronger, up around 3.8%, thanks to deeper promotions and price cuts
Group e‑commerce sales jumped 13.2%, as customers increasingly used online channels and delivery
Early in Q2, Australian food retail sales were tracking around 5% higher (excluding tobacco), suggesting some acceleration into the Christmas quarter

RetailWorld’s detailed wrap of the result emphasised that management sees progress but “more to do”, noting that: ^[18]

Customer value metrics have improved as Woolworths added more products to its “Lower Shelf Price” program
Prices in food (ex‑tobacco) have now been falling for seven consecutive quarters, as the group leans on price cuts to repair public trust and recapture market share
The business is “cautiously optimistic” about the key Christmas trading period, but warns that the full benefit of its strategic reset will take time to appear in earnings

This mix of slightly better‑than‑expected sales but margin pressure from promotions is central to how brokers and valuation models are now viewing the stock.

What brokers and consensus forecasts say (as at 28–30 November)

Across several data platforms, the analyst consensus as of late November paints a consistent picture:

1. Target prices: modest upside from here

Multiple aggregators report a 12‑month average price target for Woolworths around A$30–31 per share, only slightly above Friday’s A$29.32 close: ^[19]

TradingView: about A$30.2–30.3 (range ~A$28.25–33.00)
TipRanks: average near A$30.0, with high around A$33 and low in the A$28s
Futu / Futunn: average roughly A$30.4, max A$33.0, min A$28.25
ValueInvesting.io / FNArena consensus: around A$30.9, implying mid‑single‑digit upside from current levels
FNArena specifically lists a consensus target of A$30.12, about 2.7% above the A$29.32 last price. ^[20]

In short, most brokers see only limited upside from here, even after the rally – albeit with JPMorgan now more bullish at A$31.

2. Earnings and dividends

FNArena’s consensus data (FYs to June) summarises the earnings path as follows: ^[21]

FY25 actual EPS (already reported): about 78.9 cents per share
FY26 consensus EPS: around 124–125 cents, implying strong growth as one‑offs roll off and Big W recovers
FY26 dividend per share: about 93 cents, up from 84 cents in FY25
That implies a forward dividend yield near 3–3.3% at the current price, fully franked

Citi, for example, retains a Neutral rating with a A$31 target, but warns that Q1 trends were softer than hoped, margins remain unclear, and that management still has plenty of work to do to deliver a full turnaround. ^[22]

3. Valuation multiples: defensive, but expensive

If you look at valuation ratios rather than broker targets, Woolworths doesn’t look cheap:

Trailing PE (TTM) of around 37.4x based on a A$29.32 share price and trailing EPS of roughly A$0.78, according to GuruFocus. ^[23]
Simply Wall St estimates Woolworths is trading on about 35.8x earnings, versus a peer average near 23x and sector average around 17x, suggesting the share price embeds a large quality and defensiveness premium. ^[24]

That combination – modest upside to consensus target and a high earnings multiple – is why many analysts still class WOW as a “Hold” rather than an outright bargain. ^[25]

Independent valuations and algorithmic forecasts: divided views

Away from traditional brokers, valuation and forecasting sites are split on whether Woolworths is over‑ or under‑valued:

ValueInvesting.io’s discounted cash flow model pegs intrinsic value around A$20.3 per share as of late November, implying the stock might be overvalued by roughly 25–30% versus prices near A$28–29. ^[26]
AlphaSpread, using a different blend of valuation models, sees upside – suggesting Woolworths is around 25–30% undervalued versus a price in the high A$20s. ^[27]

Technical and purely quantitative services are equally mixed:

StockInvest.us currently flags Woolworths as a “Buy or Hold candidate”, noting positive signals from short‑ and long‑term moving averages but only modest price momentum overall. ^[28]
WalletInvestor, by contrast, warns that on its statistical models, the stock could be a “high‑risk” one‑year prospect, with its base case not ruling out share price declines over the next 12 months, even though its 14‑day target hovers near current levels. ^[29]

The takeaway: models agree that Woolworths is stable, but disagree sharply on what that stability is worth.

How the market is framing Woolworths vs Coles

The Coles–Woolworths rivalry is a key part of the investment story.

Several recent pieces – including commentary from Morningstar, Firstlinks and The Motley Fool – highlight that: ^[30]

Coles has outperformed Woolworths on the ASX so far in 2025
Woolworths has faced more intense public and political criticism over pricing and underpayments
That has left Woolworths trading on a higher P/E multiple but with a weaker recent share price track record

Some income‑focused commentators earlier in 2025 argued that, after being “trounced” by Coles and guided by new management, Woolworths could be ripe for a comeback, citing: ^[31]

A solid, fully franked dividend yield
Depressed earnings due to one‑offs and legal costs
Scope for a margin recovery once strategic changes and cost initiatives bed in

Friday’s JPMorgan upgrade, paired with improving Q1 trading data, fits neatly into that “turnaround but still defensive” narrative – though the fresh class action risk complicates the picture.

Key risks and watchpoints before the ASX opens on 1 December 2025

Heading into Monday’s session, here are the main issues investors are likely to focus on:

Immediate share price reaction to the new shareholder class action
- The claim won’t be resolved quickly, but the market may price in a higher legal and reputational overhang.
- Any Woolworths response or ASX announcement clarifying potential financial impacts would be market‑moving. ^[32]
Whether the JPMorgan upgrade triggers copy‑cat broker moves
- If other major brokers shift from Hold to Buy or push targets up towards A$32–33, it would reinforce Friday’s rerating.
- Conversely, more cautious commentary – like Citi’s measured stance after Q1 – could cap near‑term upside. ^[33]
Valuation vs defensiveness debate
- With a mid‑30s PE multiple and only low‑single‑digit upside to consensus targets, some investors may decide to take profits into strength.
- Long‑term holders who prize defensive earnings and dividends may be more inclined to hold or add on dips, especially if volatility picks up elsewhere in the market. ^[34]
Christmas‑quarter trading updates
- Markets will watch closely for any early December sales commentary, especially around:
  - Grocery volumes vs deflation
  - Online growth and fulfilment costs
  - Performance at Big W and newer banners like Petstock/W Living
- Strong December trading could underpin broker upgrades to FY26 and FY27 earnings estimates. ^[35]
Regulatory and political pressure on supermarket pricing and underpayments
- The wage underpayment saga and ongoing scrutiny from regulators and politicians remain a headline risk. Any new rulings or inquiries that raise Woolworths’ cost base or damage its brand could weigh on the share price despite its defensive profile. ^[36]

Bottom line: how Woolworths shares look before the 1 December open

Putting it all together:

Momentum has turned positive: Woolworths enters Monday’s trade on the back of a 3%+ one‑day rally and an upgrade from a major global broker, with Q1 numbers showing solid if unspectacular progress on sales and e‑commerce. ^[37]
The stock is priced for quality: At around A$29–30, Woolworths trades on a rich earnings multiple, with the average 12‑month target only a few percent higher. That suggests the market already pays up for its defensive, cash‑generative profile. ^[38]
Legal risk has increased: The new shareholder class action over underpayments adds to existing regulatory and employee claims, raising questions about future cash outflows and management bandwidth. ^[39]
Analysts are split but mostly neutral: Consensus skews to “Hold”, with some seeing modest upside and others warning the shares are overvalued on DCF assumptions, even as technical and quantitative models send mixed signals. ^[40]

For investors watching before the 1 December open, Woolworths looks like a classic defensive blue chip at a crossroads:

Short‑term: the tug‑of‑war between upgrade‑driven optimism and class‑action‑driven caution may dictate price moves.
Long‑term: the story still hinges on whether new leadership can rebuild margins and trust faster than legal and political risks erode them.

Either way, Woolworths is likely to remain one of the most closely watched names on the ASX 200 as December trading kicks off.

This article is general information only and does not constitute financial advice. Consider your own objectives, financial situation and needs, and seek professional advice before making investment decisions.