Deere & Company Stock Outlook Before the December 1, 2025 Open: Earnings Shock, Tariff Hit and Fresh Analyst Price Targets

Deere & Company (NYSE: DE) heads into the first trading day of December under pressure. After a volatile week driven by fiscal 2025 earnings, a weaker‑than‑expected 2026 profit outlook and a wave of analyst revisions, investors will be watching how Deere stock trades when U.S. markets reopen on Monday, December 1, 2025.

As of the early close on Friday, November 28, 2025, Deere shares finished at $464.49, down 1.14% on the day and roughly 13% below their 52‑week high of $533.78, but about 15% above the 52‑week low near $403. ^[1]

Below is a deep dive into what changed for DE between November 28 and 30, 2025, and what that might mean before the bell on Monday.

Where Deere Stock Stands Heading Into December 1

Last close (Nov 28, 2025): $464.49
1‑day move (Nov 28): –1.14%
30‑day performance: roughly –1.9%
Year‑to‑date (YTD): about +10.7%
52‑week range: $403.01 – $533.78 ^[2]

The current level reflects the market’s reaction to November 26 earnings and guidance. The stock fell about 5% immediately after Deere flagged a larger tariff hit and weaker 2026 profit outlook, with Reuters noting that management now expects a $1.2 billion pre‑tax tariff impact in fiscal 2026, double the roughly $600 million headwind in 2025. ^[3]

Technically, the picture turned more cautious late in the week:

A technical note from broker XTB highlighted that DE has fallen below its 200‑day EMA, signaling a return to a medium‑term downtrend.
Analysts there also pointed to a potential bearish head‑and‑shoulders pattern with a neckline near $430, suggesting that a decisive drop below that area could invite further selling, while a sustained move back toward $480 would help negate that risk. ^[4]

In short: Deere stock is off the highs, but not broken, trading in a zone where both bulls and bears can make a case heading into December.

Earnings Recap: Strong Q4 Top Line, Weak Full‑Year Trend

Deere’s fiscal Q4 2025 report (ended November 2, 2025) is the starting point for nearly all the late‑November commentary.

Headline numbers

Q4 net sales & revenues: about $12.4 billion, up ~11% year over year, beating analyst expectations. ^[5]
Q4 net income: roughly $1.07 billion, or $3.93 per share, down about 14% from $4.55 per share a year earlier. ^[6]
Zacks notes that Q4 EPS missed its consensus by a thin margin (around 0.8%), even though revenue beat expectations. ^[7]

For the full fiscal year 2025:

Revenue: about $45.7–46.0 billion, down roughly 11–11.5% versus 2024. ^[8]
Net income:$5.03 billion or $18.50 per share, down about 29% from $7.10 billion ($25.62 per share) in fiscal 2024. ^[9]

So while top‑line growth returned in Q4, profitability compressed over the year, mainly due to higher production costs and tariffs, especially in large agricultural equipment. ^[10]

Segment performance

Zacks’ breakdown of the quarter shows a mixed picture across Deere’s segments: ^[11]

Production & Precision Agriculture
- Sales: +10% YoY to ~$4.74 billion
- Operating profit: –8% YoY, as tariffs and higher production costs offset volume & pricing gains
Small Agriculture & Turf
- Sales: +7% YoY to ~$2.46 billion
- Operating profit: down about 89%, hit by warranty costs, tariffs and production expenses
Construction & Forestry
- Sales: +27% YoY (around $3.38 billion)
- Operating profit: +6%, aided by strong volumes despite tariff‑driven cost pressure
Financial Services
- Revenue: +2% YoY
- Net income: up sharply to about $293 million, helped by better financing spreads and lower credit loss provisions

In other words, Deere is still growing, but margin pressure is real, especially in ag segments most exposed to tariffs and weak farmer sentiment.

2026 Guidance: Tariff Headwinds and a Deep Ag Downturn

What really moved the stock — and what analysts focused on from November 28–30 — is Deere’s outlook for fiscal 2026.

From Deere’s own guidance, Zacks’ summary, and Reuters’ coverage: ^[12]

Net income forecast:
- $4.0–$4.75 billion for fiscal 2026
- Down from about $5.03 billion in fiscal 2025
- Below many pre‑earnings Street estimates (around $5.1–5.3 billion)
Segment outlook (2026 sales vs 2025)
- Production & Precision Agriculture:–5% to –10%
- Small Agriculture & Turf: roughly +10%
- Construction & Forestry: roughly +10%
- Financial Services net income: expected around $830 million
Tariff impact
- 2025 pre‑tax tariff hit: ~$600 million
- 2026 expected pre‑tax tariff hit: about $1.2 billion, double the prior year. ^[13]

Management, including CEO John May, has framed 2026 as the likely bottom of the current large agriculture equipment cycle, citing lower crop prices, rising farm operating costs and continued trade policy uncertainty. ^[14]

That “lower for longer” message is central to how Wall Street is repositioning DE going into December.

What Changed Between November 28 and 30: New Ratings, Price Targets and Flows

Between Friday, November 28 and Sunday, November 30, the news flow around Deere concentrated on three themes:

Analysts recalibrating price targets and ratings
Zacks focusing on ETF and industry implications
Ownership and sentiment shifts at the margin

Wall Street price‑target reset (Nov 28)

A Benzinga‑syndicated note on November 28 pulled together several post‑earnings calls: ^[15]

Truist Securities – Jamie Cook
- Rating: Buy
- New price target:$612 (up from $609)
- Implies roughly 30% upside from DE’s recent price in the high‑$460s
- Truist’s note, summarized by FinancialModelingPrep, frames Deere as a long‑term winner despite cyclical pressure.
RBC Capital Markets – Sabahat Khan
- Rating: Outperform
- Price target trimmed slightly from $542 to $541
- A MarketScreener summary says RBC still sees Deere “well positioned for a fiscal 2026 inflection” despite tariff impacts. ^[16]
Evercore ISI – David Raso
- Rating: In‑Line
- Price target cut from $487 to $458
- Investing.com highlights concerns about elevated valuation (P/E about 25.4x) and pressure on large ag demand. ^[17]

Other sources, including QuiverQuant and GuruFocus, note that several houses are now clustered between roughly $458 and $612 in their 12‑month DE targets, with Oppenheimer at $531, Wells Fargo at $543 and RBC at $541, while UBS sits around the mid‑$540s with a Buy. ^[18]

Despite this dispersion, aggregated data from StockAnalysis shows that as of late November: ^[19]

Average analyst rating: roughly “Buy”
Average 12‑month price target: about $526, implying around 13% upside from the latest close

Zacks: From stock ranking to ETF and industry stress

Zacks’ coverage around November 28 adds more nuance:

A detailed post‑earnings note assigns Deere a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell), citing the EPS miss, higher costs and a downbeat 2026 outlook as reasons to be cautious near term. ^[20]
An industry outlook released the same day places the Farm Equipment group in the bottom 9% of all Zacks industries (rank #220 of 243), pointing to weak commodity prices, soft crop receipts and rising production expenses as headwinds, even as long‑term food demand and mechanization trends remain supportive. ^[21]
Zacks also notes that the industry trades at a trailing EV/EBITDA of about 25.4x, above the S&P 500’s 18.25x and the sector’s 24.41x, suggesting valuation is not cheap at this point in the cycle. ^[22]

On the ETF side, a November 28 Zacks article titled “ETFs in Spotlight as Deere Slumps After Q4 Earnings Fall 14% Y/Y” warns that DE’s post‑earnings drop could meaningfully impact ag‑heavy ETFs. Key facts from that piece: ^[23]

DE shares fell about 5.7% on the day after earnings.
Q4 EPS fell roughly 14% year over year due to higher production costs and tariffs.
Deere is a top holding in several agribusiness ETFs:
- VEGI (iShares MSCI Agriculture Producers ETF): Deere is ~25.5% of the portfolio.
- MOO (VanEck Agribusiness ETF): DE is ~8.15%.
- FTWO (Strive Natural Resources and Security ETF): ~8.32%.
- FTAG (First Trust Indxx Global Agriculture ETF): ~10.0%.
- KROP (Global X AgTech & Food Innovation ETF): ~11.8%.

For ETF investors, that means Deere’s weakness can drag entire ag‑themed funds, and conversely, ETF inflows or outflows around the December 1 open could amplify moves in DE.

MarketBeat: Mixed signals on rating and ownership (Nov 29)

On November 29, MarketBeat flagged several items relevant to sentiment: ^[24]

Research platform Wall Street Zen cut Deere from “hold” to “sell”, adding a more bearish voice to the mix.
At the same time, UBS reaffirmed a Buy stance earlier in the week, arguing the earnings downturn should end in 2026 with a recovery in 2027. ^[25]
Filings highlighted:
- Wealthquest Corp initiated a new position in DE. ^[26]
- Johnson Financial Group sharply reduced its DE holdings (by about 68% of its prior stake). ^[27]

These flows are small relative to Deere’s ~$124 billion market cap, but they illustrate how institutions are actively repositioning around the new guidance.

Long‑Term Bull Case Emerging: AI and Precision Agriculture

Amid the near‑term gloom, some research published in the same window leans heavily into Deere’s technology and AI story.

An Invezz analysis (via TradingView) on November 27 titled “Deere stock: six ways AI could drive it much higher in 2026” argues that DE’s innovation stack could justify upside even with weaker cyclical fundamentals. Highlights: ^[28]

Precision agriculture: AI‑powered tools like “See & Spray” use computer vision to distinguish crops from weeds, potentially cutting herbicide use by up to two‑thirds, boosting farmer ROI and equipment demand.
Autonomous machines: Deere is automating tractors, combines and tillage equipment, enabling premium pricing and deeper customer lock‑in.
Satellite connectivity: A 2026 initiative aims to connect around 1.5 million machines via satellite, bringing real‑time AI capabilities even to low‑connectivity regions.
Predictive maintenance & digital twins: AI‑based monitoring and digital modeling reduce downtime and support recurring service revenue.
DeereAI platform: An internal framework to ensure responsible AI deployment, addressing regulatory and reputational risks.

The article underscores that Deere’s equipment touches about one‑third of the Earth’s surface annually, so small efficiency gains at the machine level can translate into meaningful economic and sustainability impacts over time — a key argument for long‑term investors weighing Monday’s open against a multi‑year horizon. ^[29]

Sector Backdrop: Farm Equipment Still in a Tough Spot

Deere doesn’t operate in a vacuum. The farm equipment industry is working through its own challenges:

The latest Zacks Industry Outlook on November 28 points to:
- Lower crop receipts for corn, soybeans and wheat, even though U.S. net farm income in 2025 is supported by higher government payments.
- Rising production expenses, squeezing farmer margins and delaying big‑ticket purchases like large tractors and combines.
- An industry EV/EBITDA multiple above the S&P 500 despite these pressures — a combination that often leads to valuation compression when cycles turn down. ^[30]

At the same time, the same report emphasizes structural growth drivers — global food demand, mechanization, labor scarcity and the adoption of precision agriculture — which align with Deere’s AI and automation strategy.

Key Levels and Storylines to Watch on December 1

When markets open on Monday, December 1, 2025, here are the focal points traders and investors are likely to watch:

Price action around $460–$480
- A rebound toward or above the $480 region could suggest some bargain hunting as investors look past 2026 toward a hoped‑for 2027 recovery. ^[31]
- A breakdown toward the $430 “neckline” highlighted in technical commentary would increase the risk of a deeper correction.
ETF flows
- With DE holding double‑digit weightings in several agriculture ETFs (particularly VEGI and MOO), inflows or redemptions in these funds could magnify early‑session moves. ^[32]
New research headlines
- Additional target tweaks or rating changes could still trickle in as more analysts digest management’s 2026 guidance details and tariff assumptions.
Macro and policy signals
- Any weekend or Monday morning headlines around tariff policy or agricultural trade could move the stock, given the projected $1.2 billion 2026 tariff headwind. ^[33]
Positioning between bulls and bears
- Bull camp: focuses on Deere’s tech lead in precision ag and AI, disciplined capital returns (buybacks) and the idea that 2026 could mark the cycle low before a recovery. ^[34]
- Bear camp: highlights a shrinking profit base, rich valuation, tariff overhang and the risk that the large ag downturn lasts longer than management expects. ^[35]

Bottom Line: Risk–Reward Skewed to the Long Term

Going into the December 1, 2025 open, Deere & Company sits at the crossroads of:

Near‑term cyclical pain
(lower 2026 profit, big tariff headwinds, weak large‑farm demand, tough Zacks industry rank), and
Longer‑term structural strengths
(AI‑driven precision agriculture, automation, a strong construction/forestry franchise and a still‑supportive Street consensus on 12‑month upside).

With DE trading around the mid‑$460s, below many recent price targets but not exactly “cheap” by historical multiples, how investors weigh those forces will likely set the tone for Monday’s session.

Important: This article is for informational and news purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, a recommendation to buy or sell securities, or a prediction of future performance. Investors should consider their own financial situation and, if needed, consult a qualified financial adviser before making investment decisions.