Home Depot (HD) Stock Outlook Before the December 1, 2025 Open: Zacks “Strong Sell,” Holiday Tailwinds and a New Legal Probe

As U.S. markets prepare to reopen on Monday, December 1, 2025, Home Depot, Inc. (NYSE: HD) heads into the week at a critical crossroads: the stock is down year‑to‑date, guidance has just been cut, a prominent research house now calls the shares a “Strong Sell,” yet most Wall Street analysts still see double‑digit upside over the next 12 months. Add in record Black Friday spending, an aggressive holiday promotion campaign and a fresh investor lawsuit investigation, and HD is set up for a potentially volatile start to December. ^[1]

Below is a structured look at everything that moved the Home Depot story between November 28–30, 2025, and how it sets the stage for trading before Monday’s opening bell.

Where Home Depot Stock Stands Going Into December 1

Price, performance and valuation snapshot

Last close (Friday, Nov. 28, 2025):
Home Depot closed at $356.92, up 0.4% on the day, its last print before the weekend. ^[2]
Market value and trading range:
At that price, HD’s market capitalization sits around $355 billion, with a 52‑week range of roughly $326–$439. ^[3]
Returns:
Over the past 12 months, HD shares are down about 15%, and roughly 6–7% lower year‑to‑date, underperforming the S&P 500 despite modest revenue growth. ^[4]
Income angle:
Home Depot declared a quarterly dividend of $2.30 per share, with an upcoming ex‑dividend date of December 4, 2025. At Friday’s close, that implies a forward dividend yield of about 2.5–2.6%. ^[5]

Technical backdrop

Short‑term price damage since the November earnings report has left the stock trading below all its major moving averages. TipRanks’ technical dashboard flags HD as a “Sell”: the 50‑, 100‑ and 200‑day moving averages all sit comfortably above the current share price, underscoring a downtrend that has yet to fully reverse. ^[6]

For traders heading into Monday’s open, that means any early strength will be pushing up into overhead resistance, not breaking out from a clear base.

Q3 2025 Earnings: The Overhang That Still Matters

Although the user‑requested focus is news from Nov. 28–30, most of that coverage is still reacting to Home Depot’s third‑quarter 2025 results, released on November 18—so it’s worth summarising the core numbers.

Headline results

For the quarter ended November 2, 2025:

Net sales: $41.4 billion, up 2.8% year‑on‑year, helped by roughly $900 million of revenue from the recently acquired GMS Inc. ^[7]
Comparable sales: up 0.2% overall and 0.1% in the U.S., essentially flat on an inflation‑adjusted basis. ^[8]
Net earnings: $3.6 billion, or $3.62 per diluted share, slightly below last year’s $3.67. ^[9]
Adjusted EPS:$3.74, down from $3.78 a year earlier and about $0.10 below Wall Street expectations, marking the third straight quarterly EPS miss. ^[10]

Guidance cut – and why it matters now

Management used the Q3 release to cut its full‑year profit outlook:

Adjusted EPS is now expected to decline about 5% year‑on‑year, versus the prior forecast for a 2% decline. ^[11]
Total sales are now expected to grow about 3% (up slightly from a prior 2.8% forecast).
Comparable sales are guided to be “slightly positive”, instead of roughly +1%. ^[12]

CEO Ted Decker pointed to a “deep funk” in the U.S. housing market, fewer severe storms, and anxious consumers cutting back on big‑ticket projects. ^[13]

Those comments are precisely what analysts and law firms have latched onto in the November 28‑30 news flow.

Fresh Headlines From November 28–30: What Changed for HD?

1. Zacks turns very bearish: “Strong Sell” on Home Depot

The most dramatic shift in sentiment over the weekend came from Zacks Research, which downgraded Home Depot from “Hold” to “Strong Sell” in a research note cited by several outlets. ^[14]

Key points behind the downgrade:

Repeated EPS misses and a weaker profit outlook post‑Q3. ^[15]
Ongoing pressure from a soft housing market and more cautious discretionary spending. ^[16]

Zacks’ move is notable because it stands in sharp contrast to the broader analyst community, which still labels HD a “Moderate” to “Strong Buy” with 12‑month targets well above the current price (more on that below).

For traders, the Zacks call is exactly the sort of headline that can weigh on pre‑market sentiment Monday—even if the underlying earnings story has been known for nearly two weeks.

2. TD Cowen and others cut targets – but keep mostly bullish ratings

Several other analyst updates were highlighted between November 28–30, painting a more nuanced picture:

TD Cowen kept a Buy on HD but cut its price target from $470 to $410, citing a softer housing backdrop, inventory build‑up and a more cautious macro view after Q3. ^[17]
A MarketBeat summary notes a cluster of target reductions around November 19, including:
- Goldman Sachs: $444 → $406, rating “Buy”.
- BNP Paribas Exane: $391 → $353, “Neutral”.
- JPMorgan: $444 → $423, “Overweight”.
- Telsey Advisory Group: $455 → $430, “Outperform”. ^[18]

Despite the cuts, the average 12‑month price target across major brokers still sits well above Friday’s close:

MarketBeat’s tally of 30+ analysts shows an average target around $404–405, implying low‑to‑mid‑teens upside from recent prices. ^[19]
StockAnalysis’ compilation of 23 analysts is even more optimistic, with a $425 average target—roughly 19% potential upside—and a consensus rating of “Strong Buy.” ^[20]

Bottom line: the Street is trimming expectations, but not abandoning the name. Monday’s pre‑market tape will likely show investors deciding whether Zacks’ bearish stance or the broader “buy on weakness” view carries more weight.

3. Simply Wall St: cautious outlook, AI push and valuation questions

Between November 28–29, Simply Wall St published two deep‑dive pieces on Home Depot that were widely syndicated and are likely to surface in investor feeds on Monday morning:

“Home Depot (HD): Assessing Valuation as Investor Sentiment Shows Signs of Stabilizing” (Nov. 28)
- Highlights HD’s modest trading range in late November as investors digest Q3.
- Notes that sentiment has stabilised after the sharp post‑earnings drop but remains fragile. ^[21]
“What Home Depot (HD)’s Cautious Outlook and AI Innovation Mean for Shareholders” (Nov. 29)
- Reiterates Q3 numbers: roughly $41.35 billion in sales and $3.60 billion in net income. ^[22]
- Emphasises the updated full‑year outlook of 3% sales growth but a 5% decline in adjusted EPS amid weak storm activity, housing pressure and consumer uncertainty. ^[23]
- Flags the company’s AI initiatives, including the new Blueprint Takeoffs tool launched on November 19, which uses AI to automate material lists and quotes for professional builders—potentially supporting long‑term Pro growth and margin efficiency. ^[24]

A related valuation piece concludes that a discounted cash flow (DCF) model suggests HD may be overvalued by about 14–15% at current prices, in part because the market could be underestimating the earnings drag from supply‑chain expansion and housing weakness. ^[25]

For Monday’s open, that sets up a classic tug of war: optimistic Wall Street targets vs. more conservative, DCF‑driven models.

4. Institutional investors reshuffle their Home Depot exposure

A cluster of 13F‑driven headlines between November 28–30 shows institutions rebalancing, not fleeing, HD:

Norges Bank, Norway’s sovereign wealth fund, disclosed a new position in Home Depot, signalling that at least one long‑term, fundamentals‑focused investor is buying the dip. ^[26]
West Family Investments Inc. increased its stake by about 65% in Q2, now holding 3,630 shares after adding 1,438. ^[27]
On the other side of the ledger:
- Virtue Capital Management cut its HD position by 41.8%,
- New York State Common Retirement Fund and Schroder Investment Management both trimmed holdings, ^[28]
- And on November 30, Railway Pension Investments Ltd reported selling 13,800 HD shares, reducing its stake by 9.7% to 128,958 shares. ^[29]

Taken together, late‑November data show mixed but orderly institutional repositioning rather than a wholesale rush for the exits.

5. New legal overhang: Pomerantz investigates claims on behalf of HD investors

On November 30, law firm Pomerantz LLP announced it is investigating potential claims on behalf of Home Depot shareholders, a standard first step toward a possible securities‑class‑action suit. ^[30]

While details are limited publicly, such investigations typically focus on whether management misled investors regarding demand trends, housing market risks or profitability—issues at the center of November’s guidance cut.

These legal headlines rarely move the stock dramatically on day one, but they add perceived headline risk and may add to pre‑market caution on Monday, especially with Zacks already waving a red flag.

Holiday Season Tailwinds: Record Black Friday, Cyber Monday and Home Depot’s Deals

Consumer spending is stronger than feared

Macro data released over the weekend paints a somewhat brighter picture for consumer demand:

Black Friday 2025 online sales in the U.S. hit a record $11.8 billion, up 9.1% from last year, according to Adobe Analytics, with AI‑powered shopping tools playing a major role in driving traffic and conversions. ^[31]
Mastercard’s SpendingPulse data suggests overall retail sales (ex‑autos) rose about 4.1% year‑on‑year on Black Friday, signalling that consumers are still spending despite tariff concerns and a weak labor market. ^[32]

A Barron’s piece notes that retail stocks have historically risen in the week after Black Friday, highlighting Home Depot among the names that often benefit from strong post‑holiday sentiment, even though 2025 commentary focuses more on buy‑now‑pay‑later players like Affirm. ^[33]

Home Depot’s own holiday push

On the promotional side, Home Depot’s Black Friday and Cyber Monday “blowout” has featured steep discounts on big‑ticket pro tools and home gear—such as large Milwaukee tool combo kits and mechanics’ sets—aimed at both professional contractors and DIY shoppers. ^[34]

Strong holiday traffic could help:

Offset some of the drag from weak big‑ticket remodel projects, and
Support management’s forecast for slightly positive comp‑store sales in fiscal 2025. ^[35]

However, with HD already leaning heavily on promotions, investors will be watching whether margin pressure worsens in Q4—an issue flagged by TD Cowen and others when they cut price targets. ^[36]

Dividends, Capital Returns and the December Calendar

Several near‑term catalysts are front and center as we head into the December 1 open:

Ex‑Dividend Date – December 4
- HD goes ex‑dividend for its $2.30 quarterly payout on December 4, with payment later in the month. ^[37]
- Morningstar estimates Home Depot could return around $75 billion to shareholders over the next five years via dividends and buybacks, reinforcing its reputation as a capital‑return powerhouse even amid near‑term earnings pressure. ^[38]
Investor & Analyst Day – December 9
- Home Depot will host its 2025 Investor and Analyst Conference on December 9, a key venue for management to expand on the Q3 outlook, discuss AI and Pro initiatives, and potentially reset medium‑term targets. ^[39]
Ongoing AI and Pro‑market initiatives
- The AI‑powered Blueprint Takeoffs tool, announced November 19, is the latest example of how Home Depot is trying to deepen its grip on professional contractors by embedding itself earlier in the project lifecycle. ^[40]
- Combined with broader efforts like Adobe’s AI Foundry partnership, which Home Depot has signed on to leverage for customer engagement, the company is clearly investing to keep its competitive edge even while the housing market is soft. ^[41]

For longer‑term investors, these events may matter more than the immediate post‑Black‑Friday trading noise.

How Analysts and Models See HD From Here

Putting all the late‑November commentary together:

Street consensus:
- Average 12‑month price targets in the $405–425 range imply mid‑teens to high‑teens upside from Friday’s close, with most analysts rating HD a Buy or Strong Buy despite the Q3 stumble. ^[42]
Skeptical views:
- Zacks’ “Strong Sell” stands out, focusing on slowing earnings, multiple EPS misses and macro risk. ^[43]
- DCF‑based analysis from Simply Wall St suggests the stock might be ~15% overvalued, arguing the market could be too optimistic about margins while Home Depot spends heavily on supply‑chain expansion. ^[44]
Valuation vs. history:
- Trefis data show that over the last year, HD’s share price has fallen about 15–16%, even as revenues rose and net margins dipped only modestly; most of that decline is attributed to P/E multiple compression, not collapsing fundamentals. ^[45]

In other words, Home Depot isn’t a broken business—but the price investors are willing to pay for its earnings has come down, and some models still argue it has further to fall.

What to Watch in HD Before Monday’s Opening Bell

Heading into the December 1, 2025 open, here’s how the late‑November news flow shapes the near‑term setup for Home Depot stock:

Sentiment vs. fundamentals
- Fundamentals are mixed: slow but positive sales growth, flat comps, pressured margins and a softer earnings outlook. ^[46]
- Sentiment is split: a high‑profile “Strong Sell” call and a new legal probe on one side, dominant Buy ratings and steady institutional interest on the other. ^[47]
Macro cross‑currents
- Record Black Friday and strong early holiday spending suggest near‑term demand is healthier than many feared. ^[48]
- But Home Depot’s results and commentary still tie its fortunes closely to a sluggish housing market and fewer weather‑driven repair projects—trends that don’t turn overnight. ^[49]
Key price levels
- With the stock at $356–357, it trades well below recent highs and key moving averages, leaving room for a relief rally if holiday data stay strong—or more downside if investors conclude Zacks and the DCF models are right and the multiple still needs to reset lower. ^[50]
Upcoming catalysts
- Ex‑dividend on December 4 and the Investor Day on December 9 will give management two high‑visibility chances to reassure shareholders—or confirm that a slower earnings era is here for a while. ^[51]

Final Word (and a quick disclaimer)

For investors and traders watching the tape before the December 1 open, Home Depot sits at a “show me” moment:

Bulls will point to record holiday spending, strong cash returns and long‑term AI and Pro‑market initiatives.
Bears will focus on guidance cuts, housing‑market headwinds, legal noise and a valuation that some models still see as rich.

Nothing in this article is financial advice; it’s a news‑style synthesis of the latest public information as of November 30, 2025. Anyone considering trading HD around Monday’s open should weigh these developments against their own risk tolerance, time horizon and independent research.