Boeing (BA) Stock: Defense Orders, Airbus Recall and Mixed Forecasts Set the Stage for December 1 Open

As U.S. markets prepare to reopen on Monday, December 1, 2025, The Boeing Company (NYSE: BA) is entering the new week with a very crowded narrative.

Boeing stock ended the shortened Black Friday session on November 28 at $189.00, up about 1.1% on the day, with after-hours trading nudging the price to $189.11. That puts BA comfortably above its recent lows but still well under its 50-day and 200-day moving averages around the mid‑$200s, underscoring how sharp the recent pullback has been. ^[1]

Between November 28 and 30, investors saw:

• A sweeping recall of around 6,000 Airbus A320-family jets over a flight‑control software issue, threatening near‑term disruption across global airlines. ^[2]
• Ongoing coverage of Boeing’s multi‑billion‑dollar Apache helicopter deal with Poland and a U.S. Air Force contract for 15 additional KC‑46 tankers, strengthening its defense backlog. ^[3]
• Fresh analyst and algorithmic Boeing stock forecasts pointing to sizable upside over 12 months but far more cautious technical and quant models. ^[4]
• New institutional ownership filings showing some managers increasing BA to a core holding while others trimmed exposure after the post‑earnings slide. ^[5]

Here’s what all of that means for BA heading into the December 1, 2025 open.

Boeing Stock Price Snapshot Before the Bell

Price & volatility

• Last close: $189.00 (Nov 28, 2025, Black Friday early close)
• After-hours: $189.11 ^[6]
• 52‑week range: roughly $128.88–$242.69
• Market cap: about $144 billion
• Beta: ~1.44 (meaning BA tends to move more than the broader market) ^[7]

According to Danelfin’s performance data, Boeing shares: ^[8]

• Gained ~5.4% over the last week,
• Are down about 19–20% over the last quarter, and
• Still show double‑digit gains over the past year.

That profile is classic “high‑beta recovery stock”: BA rebounded into the Thanksgiving week, but the chart still reflects a painful correction from peaks above $240 earlier in 2025. ^[9]

Crucially, BA is trading below both its 50‑day and 200‑day simple moving averages (around $205–$214), a technical configuration that many chart watchers interpret as an ongoing downtrend despite the recent bounce. ^[10]

Fresh Defense Deals: Apaches and Tankers Support the Long-Term Story

Even as Boeing’s commercial business works through quality and certification issues, the Defense, Space & Security (BDS) segment has been building momentum — and that theme has only strengthened going into December.

96 Apache helicopters for Poland

Coverage during this past week continued to focus on Boeing’s deal to build 96 AH‑64E Apache helicopters for Poland under a U.S. Foreign Military Sales (FMS) arrangement. ^[11]

Key points from the deal:

• The contract is worth roughly $4.7 billion, according to multiple reports. ^[12]
• It is the largest Apache order yet from a non‑U.S. operator, reinforcing the platform’s status in NATO’s eastern flank. ^[13]
• The agreement includes airframes, support and training, creating multi‑year revenue visibility. ^[14]

For Boeing, the deal plugs directly into a BDS backlog that already stood at $76 billion at the end of Q3, with defense margins finally back in positive territory after a long period of cost overruns. ^[15]

Additional KC‑46 tanker orders

Separately, the U.S. Air Force recently awarded Boeing a contract for 15 additional KC‑46A Pegasus refueling tankers, a package valued at around $2.4–$2.5 billion, according to defense‑sector reporting. ^[16]

This award:

• Extends a program that ultimately envisions up to 179 tankers,
• Bolsters BDS revenues tied to U.S. defense budgets, and
• Signals ongoing confidence in the KC‑46 despite its early‑life technical issues.

Combined, the Apache and tanker wins add roughly $7 billion in incremental defense revenue to Boeing’s long‑term book — a meaningful offset to the volatility in commercial jets.

Airbus A320 Recall: Competitive Tailwind or Shared Warning?

If there was one headline that dominated Nov 28–29, it was not about Boeing at all — it was about Airbus.

On November 28, Airbus ordered immediate repairs to about 6,000 A320‑family jets after an incident tied to flight‑control software that can be corrupted by solar flares. ^[17]

According to Reuters’ report: ^[18]

• The recall touches more than half of the global A320 fleet, the world’s most widely used single‑aisle jet.
• Airlines across the U.S., Europe, India and Latin America warned of delays and cancellations while the software is rolled back to an earlier version.
• For around two‑thirds of affected jets, the fix is a short software procedure, but over 1,000 aircraft may also require hardware changes, creating a more prolonged maintenance burden.
• The emergency directive from the European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) requires the fix to be completed before the planes can fly passengers again, aside from repositioning flights.

The article explicitly links the recall to the A320’s rivalry with the Boeing 737 MAX, which itself suffered a long grounding after two fatal crashes tied to flawed flight‑control software. ^[19]

Implications for BA:

• In the very short term, the recall does not automatically translate into new orders for Boeing; airlines are focused on keeping existing Airbus fleets flying.
• The episode does, however, remind investors that software and systems risk is not unique to Boeing, potentially softening the “only Boeing has safety problems” narrative that has weighed on BA since 2019. ^[20]
• If the disruption persists, some carriers might seek to diversify their narrow‑body fleets over time, which could incrementally help Boeing’s 737 MAX order pipeline — but that is a multi‑year, not a pre‑market‑Monday, story.

For Monday’s open, the Airbus news is more about sentiment and relative perception than about Boeing’s near‑term revenue.

Q3 2025 Earnings: Big Revenue, Bigger Charge

Boeing’s third‑quarter 2025 results (released October 29) still frame much of the debate around BA. ^[21]

Highlights from the official release:

• Revenue: $23.3 billion, up 30% year over year, driven by 160 commercial deliveries, the highest quarterly total since 2018. ^[22]
• 737 program: Production stabilized at 38 jets per month, with FAA approval to increase to 42 per month. ^[23]
• 777X program: Boeing booked a $4.9 billion pre‑tax charge due to an updated certification timeline, pushing GAAP EPS to –$7.14 and core EPS to –$7.47 for the quarter. ^[24]
• Free cash flow: Positive at about $0.2 billion, with operating cash flow of $1.1 billion, reflecting higher deliveries and working‑capital timing. ^[25]
• Backlog: Roughly $636 billion, including over 5,900 commercial airplanes and a growing defense backlog. ^[26]

Zacks’ post‑earnings analysis, updated on November 28, noted that BA shares were down roughly 6–7% since the report, even though revenue beat estimates. The research firm highlighted the huge 777X charge, persistent losses and downward revisions to earnings estimates, assigning Boeing a Zacks Rank of “Sell” despite the growing backlog. ^[27]

In short: fundamentals are improving on the top line and cash flow, but the market is still grappling with program‑specific risks and heavy losses, which helps explain the elevated volatility in BA’s share price.

Delivery Pace: Solid Progress, Still Behind Airbus

Beyond one‑off charges, investors are laser‑focused on how many airplanes Boeing actually ships.

A Reuters report on November 11 showed that Boeing: ^[28]

• Delivered 53 jets in October, bringing year‑to‑date deliveries to 493.
• Included 39 737 MAX jets, plus 13 wide‑bodies (seven 787 Dreamliners, two 777 freighters and four 767s).
• Logged 320 Dreamliner orders in 2025 through October, the second‑highest annual total ever for the 787.
• Ended October with an order backlog of 5,911 jets, continuing a post‑pandemic recovery trend.

However, Airbus still leads on deliveries, with 585 aircraft delivered in the first 10 months of 2025, according to the same piece. ^[29]

For Monday’s trading session, this context matters because it underscores a “catch‑up” thesis: Boeing is clearly ramping, but Airbus retains the production lead, even before the A320 recall impact is fully known.

Wall Street View: Strong Upside Targets but Not Unanimous

Consensus 12‑month price targets

Several data providers updated or highlighted Boeing forecasts during the November 28–30 window:

• StockAnalysis reports that 18 analysts covering Boeing have a consensus rating of “Strong Buy” with an average 12‑month price target of $239.56. From the latest close around $189, that implies roughly 27% upside, with targets ranging from $140 (bearish) to $282 (bullish). ^[30]
• Quiver Quantitative aggregates 14 recent price targets with a median of $255, reflecting bullish calls such as $275 from UBS, $282 from Bernstein and $250 from RBC, alongside more cautious numbers around the low‑$220s. ^[31]
• MarketBeat’s analyst‑rating digest still characterizes Boeing as a “Moderate Buy”, but notes three Strong Buys, fifteen Buys, three Holds and six Sells, with an average price target near $232. Firms like UBS, JPMorgan and Freedom Capital Markets remain positive, while BNP Paribas and independent service Weiss Ratings are among the bears with lower targets or outright Sell ratings. ^[32]

Put together, the Street view is:

Broadly bullish with average targets clustered in the low‑to‑mid $230s, but with a meaningful minority of analysts who either see limited upside or still view BA as too risky at current levels.

Fundamental forecasts: revenue & EPS

StockAnalysis also aggregates Wall Street fundamental forecasts, and the numbers help explain why bulls are willing to look past near‑term losses: ^[33]

• Revenue 2025: projected around $90.6 billion, up roughly 36% from 2024.
• Revenue 2026: forecast to grow another ~11% to $100.3 billion.
• EPS 2025: still negative at around –$8.60, but far less negative than 2024.
• EPS 2026: expected to turn positive at about $2.57, implying that analysts see 2025 as the last “deep loss” year before normalization.

That said, these are consensus projections, not guarantees — and the 777X charge is a reminder that program delays can shift timelines quickly.

Technical & Quant Models: Cautious in the Near Term

Not all the recent analysis has been upbeat.

CoinCodex: Bearish technicals, modest short-term gains

On November 30, CoinCodex’s updated Boeing stock forecast put the current algorithmic picture this way: ^[34]

• Spot price: $189.03
• 5‑day prediction: ~$191.05
• 1‑month prediction: ~$196.99 (about 4.2% potential upside)
• End‑2025 average price: around $196.01, implying a mid‑single‑digit gain from current levels.
• 1‑year forecast: roughly $167.54, which would be an 11% decline from current prices.
• Technical sentiment: explicitly flagged as “Bearish”, with about 65% of tracked indicators negative and only 35% bullish.
• 50‑day and 200‑day SMAs both sit well above the current price (around $206 and $201, respectively), reinforcing the downtrend signal.

In other words, the CoinCodex model sees some short‑term rebound room but a higher probability of lower prices over the next twelve months, at least based on pure technicals.

Danelfin AI Score: Short-term edge over the market

By contrast, Danelfin’s AI‑driven stock scoring system currently assigns Boeing: ^[35]

• An AI Score of 9/10 (Buy),
• A 66.34% probability of outperforming the S&P 500 over the next three months,
• An “advantage” of about 11 percentage points versus the average U.S. stock, once again emphasizing BA as a high‑potential name in the Industrials and Aerospace & Defense universes.

The platform breaks the score into Fundamental (8/10), Technical (7/10) and Sentiment (8/10) components and notes relatively low short interest and high institutional ownership.

So while CoinCodex’s price‑path model is cautious, Danelfin’s alpha‑probability model sees BA as statistically attractive over a 60‑day to 90‑day horizon. That split is one reason December 1 could bring active trading as different strategies act on different signals.

Institutional Flows and Insider Activity

The most recent 13F‑style filings summarized over the weekend highlight how professional money is repositioning around BA. ^[36]

New and increased positions

• Dilation Capital Management LP increased its Boeing stake by 26.3% in Q2, to 86,599 shares valued at about $18.1 million. BA now makes up roughly 9.7% of the firm’s portfolio, its single largest position — a strong vote of conviction from that manager. ^[37]
• Scotia Capital Inc. lifted its BA holdings by 20.7%, buying 5,150 additional shares to reach 30,069 shares worth about $6.3 million. ^[38]

Both MarketBeat pieces note that institutional investors as a group own roughly 64.8% of Boeing stock, a level consistent with BA’s role as a large‑cap core holding. ^[39]

Trimmed stakes

Not every institution is adding:

• Groupama Asset Management cut its Boeing position by 40.1%, selling 1,719 shares in Q2 and ending the period with 2,569 shares worth about $551,000. ^[40]

QuiverQuant’s broader institutional holdings dashboard shows: ^[41]

• 1,246 institutional investors increased their BA stakes in recent quarters,
• 927 decreased their positions,
• With large moves in both directions from major asset managers such as Capital Research, FMR, UBS Asset Management and BlackRock.

Insider transactions

Recent insider moves are modest but directionally informative: ^[42]

• SVP Dana S. Deasy purchased 554 shares around $178.88 on November 24, signaling some internal confidence after the pullback.
• EVP Uma M. Amuluru sold 1,366 shares at roughly $197.66 earlier in November, trimming her position.
• Overall, insiders hold about 0.09% of shares, while institutions control the bulk of the float.

Net‑net, the flow data suggest active but not panicked repositioning: some funds are clearly leaning into Boeing’s weakness as a buying opportunity, while others are taking profits or reducing risk after the post‑earnings volatility.

How the Airbus Recall and Defense Orders Feed Into the Boeing Story

Looking across the news from November 28–30, several themes stand out for investors considering BA before Monday’s open:

1. Defense as a stabilizer.
   Multi‑billion‑dollar Apache and KC‑46 contracts underscore Boeing’s role as a key defense prime, somewhat decoupled from airline cycles. With BDS finally posting positive margins again and defense backlogs rising, that side of the house is becoming a more reliable earnings contributor than it was a few years ago. ^[43]
2. Commercial jets: progress with caveats.
   Deliveries are at their highest level since 2018, and the 737 and 787 programs are stabilizing at higher production rates. But the massive 777X charge and ongoing quality oversight mean that good quarters can still be overshadowed by one big negative surprise. ^[44]
3. Airbus’s software problem doesn’t erase Boeing’s own history.
   The A320 recall blunts the “Boeing alone has safety issues” narrative, yet it simultaneously puts software safety back under the regulatory microscope — something that could tighten standards across the industry, including for the 737 MAX and future Boeing programs. ^[45]
4. Forecasts say “up,” technicals say “careful.”
   Wall Street’s 12‑month price targets and fundamental forecasts still imply mid‑20s percent upside from Friday’s close, while AI‑driven scoring systems see a short‑term probability edge versus the broader market. But technical models like CoinCodex’s expect only modest near‑term gains and a potential drift lower over the next year, reflecting the damage already done to BA’s trend. ^[46]
5. Flows and ownership show a divided but engaged investor base.
   With some institutions making Boeing a top portfolio holding while others scale back, and with insider buys and sells roughly balancing, the market clearly doesn’t see BA as either a clear‑cut disaster or a slam‑dunk bargain. It’s a high‑conviction battleground stock. ^[47]

What to Watch on December 1, 2025

Heading into Monday’s open, Boeing shareholders and traders may want to focus on a few key watch points:

• Pre‑market reaction to Airbus headlines
  Any further guidance from Airbus or regulators on the duration and operational impact of the A320 recall could influence sentiment toward both Airbus and Boeing, particularly for investors viewing the pair as a relative value trade. ^[48]
• Follow‑through on defense names
  MarketBeat highlighted Boeing alongside GE Aerospace, Lockheed Martin, RTX and Northrop Grumman as key defense stocks to watch, noting strong recent trading volumes and the sector’s perceived resilience in volatile markets. Any broad defense‑sector rally or pullback could spill into BA at the open. ^[49]
• Updates on deliveries and year‑end guidance
  With October deliveries already disclosed and November nearly finished, investors will look for any hints about whether Boeing is on track to meet its full‑year delivery and cash‑flow goals, or if the company signals fresh headwinds. ^[50]
• Price action around key technical levels
  Traders will be watching whether BA can build on last week’s bounce and move closer to the $200 area, or whether selling pressure reasserts itself, confirming CoinCodex’s bearish read of the trend. ^[51]

Bottom Line: A High-Conviction, High-Risk Name Into December

As of the close on November 28, Boeing sits at a crossroads:

• Long‑term bulls see a company with a massive backlog, rising deliveries, stabilizing defense margins and Street forecasts that finally show a path to positive EPS by 2026. ^[52]
• Skeptics point to the 777X charge, ongoing quality issues, leverage and regulatory overhangs, plus technical indicators that still flash caution despite the recent bounce. ^[53]

The news flow from November 28–30, 2025 doesn’t resolve that tension — it sharpens it. The Airbus recall slightly shifts the competitive lens, and fresh defense wins underline Boeing’s strategic value, but the stock remains a volatile, execution‑sensitive bet.

For investors considering Boeing before the market opens on December 1, the message embedded in this week’s data is simple:

BA is still a bold choice, not a boring one. The potential rewards are significant, but so are the risks, and outcomes will hinge on whether Boeing can keep ramping deliveries and executing on its defense programs without new, costly surprises.

As always, this article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. Anyone considering an investment in Boeing should review the company’s official filings, earnings calls and risk disclosures, and weigh them against their own risk tolerance and time horizon.

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