As U.S. markets prepare to reopen on Monday, December 1, 2025, Texas Instruments Incorporated (NASDAQ: TXN) heads into the week with a mix of positive price momentum, cautious earnings guidance, and a flurry of new institutional activity between November 28–30, 2025.
Below is a full rundown of what has changed for Texas Instruments stock in the last three days – including price action, analyst forecasts, valuations, and recent fund flows – to help investors frame the setup before the bell.
Texas Instruments stock into December: five-day rally, still well below its highs
At the final close of trading on Friday, November 28, 2025, Texas Instruments shares finished at $168.27, up 1.77% on the day. That move marked the fifth straight session of gains for TXN. [1]
Key details from the last session:
- Close: $168.27
- Daily move: +1.77% vs. roughly +0.5% for the S&P 500
- Intraday range: about $165–$169.25
- Volume: roughly 4 million shares, about half its 50‑day average around 8.1 million [2]
- 52‑week range: roughly $139.95 – $221.69, leaving TXN still more than 24% below its July 11 peak [3]
Friday’s performance was not just a quiet drift higher: TXN outperformed many major chip peers. NVIDIA fell around 1.8%, while Broadcom and Qualcomm gained about 1.4% and 1.8% respectively. [4]
Zacks and other outlets highlighted the stock’s short‑term momentum, noting roughly a 5–6% gain over the prior week, and that TXN has been “outperforming the broader market” in the latest session. [5]
Takeaway for Monday’s open:
Technically, TXN enters December with improving momentum but subdued volume and still trading well below its mid‑year highs. That suggests traders are cautiously rebuilding positions rather than chasing an overheated move.
Earnings beat vs. cautious guidance: the core TXN story
Most of the research and commentary published between November 28–30 continues to circle back to Texas Instruments’ October Q3 2025 earnings report.
Q3 2025 snapshot
On October 21, 2025, TI reported: [6]
- Revenue: about $4.74 billion,
- up ~7% quarter‑over‑quarter
- up ~14% year‑over‑year.
- EPS: around $1.48, essentially in line with consensus.
- Q4 2025 guidance: EPS of roughly $1.13–$1.39 and revenue guidance with a midpoint below Wall Street expectations.
Immediately after the report, shares sold off about 5–6%, as investors reacted more to the soft outlook and commentary about a slower‑than‑hoped recovery in analog chip demand than to the headline beat. Reuters and other outlets framed the guidance as reinforcing fears of a “drawn‑out recovery” in the analog chip market amid tariff uncertainty. [7]
While that post‑earnings drop weighed on TXN through late October and early November, the recent rally into the end of November suggests some investors are now willing to look past the near term and refocus on the company’s structural strengths.
Fresh analysis (Nov 28–30): valuation checks and catalysts
Several new notes and articles published from November 28–30, 2025 reassessed TXN’s valuation and medium‑term outlook.
1. Simply Wall St: “Earnings beat, cautious outlook – is TXN overvalued?”
On November 29, Simply Wall St published “Texas Instruments (TXN): Assessing Valuation After Earnings Beat and Cautious Outlook.” [8]
Key points from that analysis:
- The article reiterates that Q3 revenue and earnings topped expectations, but the cautious Q4 guidance and tariff concerns remain a headwind for sentiment.
- Using its discounted cash flow (DCF) model, Simply Wall St estimates a fair value around $150.90 per share, below the current price near $168.
- From that lens, TXN screens as modestly overvalued, even after the October pullback.
In other words, from this viewpoint the recent rebound may have moved the stock slightly ahead of its base‑case intrinsic value, though not wildly so.
2. More bullish long‑term forecasts out to 2028
Another widely circulated piece, republished on platforms like Webull over the last two days, highlights more optimistic analyst scenarios. [9]
In that bullish camp:
- Some analysts see potential for annual revenue approaching ~$27.9 billion and earnings around $11.7 billion by 2028,
- Assumptions include a stronger‑than‑consensus rebound in industrial and automotive demand and sustained margin expansion.
By contrast, the “cautious consensus” assumes a slower, bumpier recovery, more in line with management’s own guidance and the recent sector pressure.
3. Yahoo Finance: “What catalysts could shift the story for TI?”
A new piece on November 29 looked at “What Catalysts Could Shift the Story for TI Amid Margin Pressure”, focusing on what needs to go right for the stock to re‑rate higher. [10]
The article emphasizes:
- Mizuho’s recent downgrade of TXN to Underperform, with a price‑target cut from $200 to $150, citing weaker‑than‑expected guidance and slower demand in key end markets. [11]
- Ongoing margin headwinds from tariffs, pricing pressure in mature‑node chips, and heavy capital expenditure as TI expands 300‑mm manufacturing.
- Potential positive catalysts, including:
- faster‑than‑expected demand recovery in industrial and automotive,
- clearer tariff and trade policy,
- better utilization and ramp of newer fabs, and
- stabilization of inventory corrections at customers.
Overall, the late‑November research tone can be summarized as:
Fundamentals are solid, but the timing and strength of the upturn remain uncertain, which keeps valuation debates very active.
Analyst ratings and price targets: a “Hold” consensus with big disagreement
Several updated forecast and consensus pages were referenced in articles dated November 28–30, and a fresh aggregation from MarketBeat on November 26–30 is being cited heavily. [12]
Across major data providers (MarketBeat, Zacks, Investing.com, TipRanks and others), the picture looks roughly like this:
- Consensus 12‑month price target:
- generally clustered around $189–$192 per share
- with estimates from various platforms ranging from the high‑180s to low‑190s.
- Average implied upside from the current ~$168 share price:
- roughly 10–18%, depending on the source.
- High / low target range:
- High: about $245
- Low: about $125. [13]
- Ratings mix (from a MarketBeat tally of 31 firms):
- about 6 Sell, 11 Hold, 12 Buy, and 2 Strong Buy,
- leading to an overall “Hold” or “Moderate Buy” consensus, depending on the methodology. [14]
Recent single‑firm actions that color this consensus:
- Mizuho: cut its target from $200 to $150 and downgraded TXN to Underperform in mid‑November, citing weak guidance and end‑market softness. [15]
- Goldman Sachs, TD Cowen and others: trimmed targets but still maintain Buy or Overweight stances in many cases, with targets often in the $190–$210 range. [16]
What this means for investors before the open
The headline consensus of modest upside masks unusually wide dispersion in views:
- Bearish camp: sees a prolonged analog downturn, tariff risk, and potential valuation compression – and points to targets near or even below current levels (e.g., Mizuho’s $150).
- Base‑case camp: aligns with the ~$190 target cluster – expecting a gradual recovery and steady margins.
- Bullish camp: anchors on 2028‑type scenarios with revenue and EPS well above today’s levels, supporting targets in the low‑to‑mid $200s if the cycle turns decisively.
For Monday’s trade, that disagreement sets the stage for headline‑sensitive moves: any new macro data, tariff news, or sector read‑through could quickly be used to validate one side of the debate.
Institutional investors ramp up TXN positions (Nov 29–30 filings)
One of the most notable developments between November 28–30 is the cluster of institutional ownership updates.
MarketBeat’s recent alerts show several funds increasing or initiating positions: [17]
- Schroder Investment Management Group
- Boosted its TXN stake by roughly 28%, to a position worth about $767 million, according to a filing highlighted on November 30. [18]
- Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Co.
- Increased its holding by about 2.6%, to roughly 270,000 shares (around $56 million at recent prices). [19]
- BLI Banque de Luxembourg Investments
- Reported a new or expanded position in TXN in a filing dated November 30. [20]
- Vinva Investment Management Ltd.
- Disclosed additional share purchases in a note published November 29. [21]
Across these and other institutions, recent filings underscore that roughly 85% of TXN shares are held by institutional investors, a figure that has been reiterated in late‑November reports. [22]
Interpretation
- The direction of flows over the last few days clearly leans toward incremental buying, not wholesale liquidation.
- Large, diversified asset managers are typically focused on multi‑year cash‑flow and dividend streams rather than quarter‑to‑quarter volatility, so their increased exposure tends to be read as a long‑term vote of confidence in TXN’s business model – even if near‑term demand is choppy.
Dividend and income profile: a key part of the TXN thesis
Even though there was no brand‑new dividend news between November 28–30, several analyses over the weekend reiterated Texas Instruments’ role as a dividend stalwart.
The board previously declared a Q4 2025 dividend of $1.42 per share, payable on November 12, 2025, to shareholders of record as of October 31. [23]
At the current share price near $168, that payout annualizes to $5.68 per share, implying a forward dividend yield of roughly 3.3–3.4%. [24]
Important context often highlighted in recent coverage:
- TI has a two‑decade track record of annual dividend increases, underscoring management’s confidence in the durability of free cash flow. [25]
- The company continues to emphasize shareholder returns via dividends and buybacks alongside heavy capital spending on manufacturing.
For income‑oriented investors, this yield plus quality profile is a central reason TXN appears on many “dividend growth” and “quality compounder” lists, even while cyclicals in semiconductors remain under pressure.
Risk factors still front and center
The late‑November research published between the 28th and 30th does not downplay the risks. Common themes across multiple notes include: [26]
- Tariffs and geopolitics
- Chinese and U.S. tariff changes have complicated supply chains and pressured analog chip pricing, especially in mature process nodes where competition from China is ramping.
- Some analyses argue this could prolong the downturn or cap margin expansion if TI needs to be more aggressive on pricing or adjust its manufacturing footprint.
- Industrial and automotive demand uncertainty
- Third‑party commentary highlights that the rebound in industrial and auto chips is lagging previous cycles, which matters because these are core end markets for TXN.
- Capex and fab ramp execution
- TI is in the middle of a large, multi‑year investment cycle to expand 300‑mm capacity in the U.S.
- If end‑market demand disappoints, investors worry about under‑utilized fabs and weaker near‑term returns on capital.
- Valuation risk
- Even after the October drop, some models (like Simply Wall St’s DCF) suggest limited upside or mild downside from current prices, while others see attractive long‑term value. That spread in fair‑value estimates adds to potential volatility if macro conditions change.
What to watch as Texas Instruments opens on December 1, 2025
Going into Monday’s session, the key moving pieces for TXN can be summarized as follows:
- Price action and levels
- TXN has rebounded to the high‑$160s, coming off a five‑day winning streak and modest weekly gains, but is still well below its 52‑week high. [27]
- Short‑term traders will be watching whether the stock can hold the mid‑$160s area, where it traded before the latest push higher.
- Sentiment vs. fundamentals
- Flows and ownership
- Late‑November filings show multiple large institutions adding to or initiating positions, reinforcing the idea that “patient capital” remains interested at current levels. [30]
- Macro and sector headlines
- Any news on tariffs, China tensions, or industrial demand could have an outsized effect on TXN because the stock sits at the crossroads of cyclical analog demand and policy‑driven trade risks. [31]
Bottom line
Between November 28 and 30, 2025, the story around Texas Instruments stock has sharpened:
- Price momentum is positive, with TXN closing Friday at $168.27 after five straight daily gains. [32]
- Research updates stress a tug‑of‑war between strong fundamentals and cautious guidance, with fair‑value estimates ranging from around $150 to well above $200 depending on how quickly industrial and automotive demand recover. [33]
- Analyst consensus still sits near “Hold” with mid‑190s price targets, but the spread of Buy vs. Sell ratings is unusually wide for a mature blue‑chip. [34]
- Institutional investors are quietly adding exposure, reinforcing the long‑term appeal of TXN’s moat, margins and dividend, even as cyclical and macro risks persist. [35]
As trading begins on December 1, 2025, investors watching Texas Instruments should focus less on the last few dollars of share price noise and more on three big questions:
- How quickly will analog demand in industrial and automotive truly recover?
- Will tariffs and geopolitical frictions ease or intensify over the next 12–24 months?
- Can TXN’s expanding manufacturing footprint deliver the returns needed to justify today’s valuation plus the bullish 2028 scenarios?
How the market answers those questions – not just Monday’s opening print – will likely determine whether TXN’s late‑November rally marks the start of a sustained recovery or just another pause in a longer consolidation.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Always do your own research or consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
References
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