Nebius Stock Price Today (NBIS): Meta and Microsoft AI Deals, Q3 Earnings Shock, and 2026 Forecast

Ticker: Nebius Group N.V. (NASDAQ: NBIS)
Date: 30 November 2025

Nebius (NBIS) stock price today: quick snapshot

As of the close of U.S. trading on Friday, 28 November 2025, Nebius Group N.V.:

Last close: about $94.87 per share, with after‑hours trading nudging it to roughly $95.00. ^[1]
Market cap: around $23.9 billion. ^[2]
Day range (last session): roughly $93.44 – $97.08. ^[3]
52‑week range: approximately $18.31 – $141.10, underlining how violently the stock has moved in 2025. ^[4]
YTD performance: depending on which start date you use, Nebius is up roughly 240–300% in 2025, yet still trades about 30% below its recent high near $141. TechStock²+2Nasdaq+2
Liquidity & volatility:
- 30‑day average volume in the tens of millions of shares. ^[5]
- Beta readings vary by provider, but all point to a stock that moves far more than the market—TS2 cites a beta above 3, while some screeners show ~1.1 based on a shorter trading history. TechStock²+2StockAnalysis+2

On basic valuation measures, Nebius looks expensive by traditional standards:

Price‑to‑sales (P/S): several data providers put Nebius around 60× trailing sales, far above most tech peers. TechStock²+1
P/E ratio: depending on how legacy Yandex‑era earnings are treated, trailing P/E shows up in the high double to triple digits, and in some GAAP screens it doesn’t make much sense at all because of one‑off items and losses. TechStock²+2GuruFocus+2

So, Nebius stock today is a classic hyper‑growth AI story: huge run‑up, big swings, and valuations that assume the company can keep executing almost perfectly.

What Nebius actually does

Nebius is a Dutch technology company building full‑stack cloud infrastructure for AI, not a consumer‑internet or ad business. ^[6]

Key points:

Headquartered in Amsterdam, listed on Nasdaq as NBIS, with R&D hubs across Europe, North America and Israel. ^[7]
Provides GPU‑dense cloud capacity for AI training and inference, with large clusters of NVIDIA GPUs (including H100, H200 and B200) and high‑speed InfiniBand networking. ^[8]
Wraps that hardware in higher‑level services:
- Nebius AI Cloud – its core AI‑native cloud platform.
- Nebius Token Factory – a new production inference platform for open‑source and custom models.
- A growing ecosystem of tools and partners (Hugging Face, Anyscale, SkyPilot, etc.). ^[9]
Owns or controls other businesses such as:
- Avride (autonomous vehicles and delivery robots),
- TripleTen (ed‑tech bootcamps),
- plus stakes in Toloka and ClickHouse. ^[10]

Nebius emerged out of a complex restructuring of Yandex N.V., with the AI infrastructure business carved out into a new Western‑focused vehicle. That history partly explains why different data vendors disagree on earnings and margins—the accounting is still settling as the “old Yandex” fades from the numbers. TechStock²+1

2025’s defining news: mega AI deals with Microsoft and Meta

1. The $17.4–19.4 billion Microsoft agreement

In September 2025, Nebius announced a five‑year deal with Microsoft valued at about $17.4 billion, with options that could lift the total to $19.4 billion. ^[11]

Under the agreement:

Nebius will supply GPU capacity from a new data center in Vineland, New Jersey, dedicated to supporting Microsoft Azure’s AI workloads. ^[12]
Microsoft effectively locks in long‑term AI compute capacity, turning Nebius into a kind of “AI utility provider” for at least part of its demand. ^[13]
The announcement sent NBIS shares soaring ~40–50% intraday and helped push them to record highs in October. ^[14]

A widely cited 24/7 Wall St. piece grouped Nebius with IREN and Cipher Mining as three companies attacking the “bright line bottlenecks” of AI: power and data‑center space. That article highlighted Nebius data centers as running roughly 20% more power‑efficiently than typical cloud facilities, a big deal when energy can be ~40% of operating costs. ^[15]

2. The $3 billion Meta Platforms contract

On 11 November 2025, alongside Q3 earnings, Nebius unveiled a five‑year, $3 billion AI infrastructure deal with Meta Platforms to provide high‑performance GPU capacity. ^[16]

Reuters’ coverage of the announcement highlighted that:

Q3 revenue jumped 355% year‑over‑year to $146.1 million, driven by hyperscaler demand. ^[17]
Nebius is targeting $7–9 billion in annualized run‑rate revenue by the end of 2026, with the Microsoft and Meta contracts providing most of that visibility. ^[18]
Demand from Meta was so strong that the contract size had to be capped by Nebius’ available capacity, reinforcing that the constraint is supply (power, land, GPUs), not interest. ^[19]

Together, the Microsoft and Meta deals sit at the core of the bull case: Nebius has pre‑sold huge chunks of capacity years in advance, at a time when many hyperscalers are scrambling for power and racks.

Q3 2025 earnings: explosive growth, bigger losses

Nebius’ Q3 2025 report (fiscal quarter ended 30 September 2025, released 11 November) looked like a textbook AI‑infrastructure hyper‑growth story. ^[20]

Headline numbers

Revenue: $146.1 million, +355% vs. Q3 2024. ^[21]
Net income: roughly –$120 million, a materially wider loss than about –$40 million a year earlier. ^[22]
Capital expenditures: about $955.5 million in the quarter, up from roughly $172 million a year before, as Nebius spent aggressively on GPUs, land and power infrastructure. ^[23]
Cash & balance sheet (post‑raise):
- Cash and equivalents around $4.8 billion,
- Total assets about $10.1 billion,
- Total liabilities roughly $5.3 billion, including over $4 billion of non‑current debt. ^[24]

Benzinga and other outlets emphasize that gross margin has already moved above 70%, with gross profit north of $100 million in Q3. That’s closer to a mature cloud provider than a small infrastructure builder, and it’s a key part of the thesis that once these data centers are built and filled, incremental capacity will be very profitable. TechStock²+1

However:

Q3 revenue missed some consensus estimates (~$155 million),
Adjusted profitability metrics remained deeply negative,
And the stock sold off sharply following the release, even though the Meta deal is transformational. ^[25]

This mix—surging revenue + rising losses + heavy capex—is exactly why commentators keep framing Nebius as high‑risk, high‑reward, not a “sleep‑well‑at‑night” AI utility.

Funding the build‑out: $4.2 billion raise and an ATM program

To finance its data‑center build‑out and GPU purchases, Nebius has leaned hard on capital markets in 2025.

September share and convertible note offerings

In September 2025, Nebius completed a combined raise of about $4.2 billion, consisting of: ^[26]

A $1 billion underwritten public offering of Class A shares at $92.50 per share, plus a potential $150 million over‑allotment.
$2.75 billion of convertible senior notes in two tranches:
- 1.00% notes due 2030,
- 2.75% notes due 2032, later upsized from an originally planned $2.0 billion total.

Company estimates in the Nasdaq and Nebius releases suggest:

Net proceeds of roughly $979.5 million from the share sale and about $2.7–3.1 billion from the notes, after underwriting discounts and expenses. ^[27]

The stated use of proceeds: more GPUs, more land, more power, and more data centers—essentially, fuel for the hyperscaler contracts.

At‑the‑market (ATM) equity program

Alongside Q3 results, Nebius also filed for an at‑the‑market (ATM) share program covering up to 25 million additional Class A shares, allowing management to drip new stock into the market over time as funding needs arise. TechStock²+2TechStock²+2

Analysts at AInvest and TS2 note that this gives the company flexibility but also creates ongoing dilution risk if the ATM is used aggressively, especially in the event of a market downturn or a lull in AI enthusiasm. TechStock²+2TechStock²+2

This is a central theme in more cautious coverage: Nebius’ business model requires huge, continuous capital investment, so its fate is tightly linked to the health of equity and credit markets.

New platforms: Token Factory and AI Cloud 3.0 “Aether”

Beyond raw GPU capacity, Nebius is pushing two higher‑level platforms that could deepen its moat and margins.

Nebius Token Factory: production‑grade open‑source inference

Launched on 5 November 2025, Nebius Token Factory is a managed platform for serving open‑source and custom models in production. ^[28]

According to Nebius’ launch release and early customer stories:

Token Factory allows enterprises to run popular open models (including DeepSeek, Llama, NVIDIA Nemotron, Qwen and others) with sub‑second latency and 99.9% uptime at very high request volumes. ^[29]
Early adopters like Prosus and Higgsfield AI have reported dramatic cost reductions, with one case study citing up to 26× lower inference costs versus some proprietary alternatives. ^[30]
Integration with partners such as Hugging Face positions Nebius as an infrastructure backend for the broader open‑source AI ecosystem. ^[31]

If Token Factory gains traction, Nebius becomes less of a commodity GPU vendor and more of a software‑ and platform‑driven business, which could help justify premium valuation multiples.

Nebius AI Cloud 3.0 “Aether”: compliance and governance as a moat

On 16 October 2025, Nebius introduced AI Cloud 3.0 “Aether”, branding it as an AI cloud built for heavily regulated enterprises. ^[32]

Key features highlighted by Nebius and Nasdaq’s coverage:

Security & compliance:
- Certifications such as SOC 2 Type II (including HIPAA) and ISO 27001, with alignment to NIS2, DORA, ISO 27032, ISO 27701 and ISO 27799.
- Built‑in secrets management for API keys and credentials. ^[33]
Governance & observability:
- Fine‑grained IAM controls,
- Full observability (logs, metrics, auditing) to satisfy banks, healthcare providers and governments. ^[34]
Developer workflow:
- Updated UI, preconfigured VMs and integrations with tools like SkyPilot Server and Anyscale, aiming to keep developers productive while security teams stay in control. ^[35]

Analysts see Aether as a way for Nebius to differentiate vs. hyperscalers in Europe and parts of the U.S. where regulatory assurances and data‑residency matter as much as raw GPU counts. ^[36]

How Wall Street rates Nebius stock right now

Despite breathtaking volatility, sell‑side analysts remain broadly bullish.

Consensus ratings and targets

Different platforms show slightly different numbers, but the picture is consistent:

MarketBeat:
- 11 analysts, average rating “Buy” (2 Strong Buy, 7 Buy, 2 Hold, 0 Sell).
- Average 12‑month price target: $144.71, implying about 52% upside from ~$94.9. ^[37]
TipRanks:
- 6 analysts tracked in the past three months,
- Consensus: Strong Buy,
- Average target: $164.20 (range $130 – $211), about 73% above the last close. ^[38]
Other sources:
- eToro quotes an average target around $161.50, also framed as Strong Buy. ^[39]
- Stockanalysis aggregates a somewhat lower but still bullish target around $157.20, or roughly 65–66% upside. ^[40]
- Sites like Stocksguide summarise 12 analysts with a Buy‑heavy skew and an estimated 2026 upside potential of ~57%. ^[41]

In short, most formal analyst models still assume material upside from today’s price, even after the massive run‑up in 2025.

Not everyone is enthusiastic

CNBC’s Jim Cramer recently characterised Nebius as “too speculative,” pointing to its losses and capital intensity and steering more conservative investors toward mature names like Dell instead. TechStock²+1
A widely shared investing note (syndicated via Investing.com and GuruFocus) framed Nebius as “running out of runway—or about to take off,” underlining that the same leverage and capex that can juice returns can also amplify downside if markets turn. TechStock²+2GuruFocus+2
A Seeking Alpha article that previously described a “brutal reckoning” for investors who chased the October peak upgraded the stock only after a 30–40% pullback, highlighting just how sensitive the story is to entry price. TechStock²+1

Quant and technical models: a more cautious near‑term view

While human analysts lean bullish, some quantitative models and technical screeners flash caution.

The Intellectia AI forecast page for NBIS, updated with the latest price data, shows: ^[42]

Short‑term predictions (from ~$94.9):
- 1‑day target: around $94.47 (–0.4%),
- 1‑week: roughly $92.75 (–1.2%),
- 1‑month: about $90.54 (–4.6%).
Longer‑term AI forecast:
- 2026 projection: near $42, suggesting the model sees a meaningful chance of a deep pullback by then,
- 2030 projection: around $142, roughly 50% above today’s price.
Quant rating: based on moving averages, momentum and short‑interest data, Intellectia currently tags NBIS as a “Strong Sell” candidate in the near term, citing a falling trend, high volatility and elevated short‑selling.

Separately, the same data show:

A short‑sale ratio above 20% of volume as of late November, indicating aggressive speculation on both sides of the trade. ^[43]
Options markets pricing implied volatility close to 100%, according to TS2’s November 25 analysis—traders expect very large swings in either direction. TechStock²+1

Technical coverage on Investopedia, focused on the Microsoft breakout, even projects a potential upside target near $176using a pennant “measured move,” but also highlights support zones in the mid‑$50s to high‑$80s that could come into play if sentiment turns. ^[44]

Taken together: Wall Street’s fundamental models are mostly bullish, but quant/technical tools flag meaningful downside risk in the short run.

Valuation and risk: growth priced for (near) perfection

A few themes crop up again and again in recent deep dives from TS2, Barron’s, GuruFocus and others. GuruFocus+3TechStock²+3TechStock²+3

Valuation highlights

Revenue multiples:
- Trailing price‑to‑sales around 60×, with enterprise‑value‑to‑revenue ratios in the high‑50s, higher than ~98% of companies in similar “interactive media / cloud” peer groups. TechStock²+1
P/E and earnings:
- Depending on the dataset, Nebius screens as either:
  - high‑triple‑digit P/E on a small, noisy profit base, or
  - effectively loss‑making if you focus strictly on GAAP results and exclude spin‑off distorts. ^[45]
One‑year performance:
- 1‑year share price gain in the 200–330% range; 52‑week low near $18, high around $141. TechStock²+2TechStock²+2
Volatility metrics:
- Beta estimates ~3+ in some screens, and options with implied vol near 100%, marking NBIS as far more volatile than the broad market. TechStock²+2TechStock²+2

The common conclusion: Nebius is priced like a high‑growth, capital‑intensive AI rocket, not like a slow, regulated utility.

Structural risks

Recent analyses (TS2, AInvest, GuruFocus, Barron’s and 24/7 Wall St) tend to focus on several key risk buckets: Investors.com+4TechStock²+4TechStock²+4

Execution & build‑out risk
Nebius must:
- Build multiple large data‑center campuses on time and on budget,
- Secure huge volumes of GPUs and power,
- And keep downtime, latency and reliability within tight SLAs for Microsoft, Meta and future customers.
Any major delay or cost overrun could hurt both its contracts and its funding options.
Customer concentration
Two tech giants—Microsoft and Meta—anchor a large portion of forward revenue. That’s great for visibility, but it also means:
- Contract renegotiations, technical issues or strategic shifts at these customers could have outsized impact on Nebius’ numbers. ^[46]
Capital‑market dependence & dilution
Nebius’ model is capital‑hungry:
- It just raised ~$4.2 billion via equity and convertibles,
- It has an ATM program that can add up to 25 million shares over time,
- And it already carries over $4 billion in non‑current debt. ^[47]
If markets turn hostile or AI enthusiasm cools, it could face tough choices between slowing expansion, refinancing at worse terms, or heavier dilution.
Regulatory and political risks
Large AI data centers are increasingly in the crosshairs of energy regulators and local politics, especially in Europe and parts of the U.S. Nebius’ focus on efficiency and certifications via Aether helps, but doesn’t eliminate risk around:
- Power caps,
- Zoning and permitting,
- AI‑specific regulation. ^[48]
Competitive pressure
Nebius operates in a fiercely competitive space:
- Other “neocloud” players like CoreWeave,
- Hyperscalers like AWS, Azure, Google Cloud,
- And crypto‑to‑AI converts like IREN and various data‑center REIT‑style plays. ^[49]
Its edge in efficiency and its pre‑sold contracts are important, but not unassailable.

Nebius stock forecast for 2026 and beyond: what the numbers imply

Bringing the forecasts together:

Analyst 12‑month price targets (late 2026 time frame):
- Cluster mostly in the $145–165 range,
- Implied upside from ~50% to over 70% versus ~$95 today,
- High targets run to ~$200–211, lows around $84–130. ^[50]
Quant/AI model (Intellectia):
- Short‑term: mild downside over the next week and month,
- 2026 “fair value” around $42 (down ~55%),
- 2030 “fair value” around $142 (up ~50%), suggesting a highly volatile path even if the long‑run trend is higher. ^[51]

So you effectively get three overlapping stories:

Bullish Street scenario
Nebius fills out its data centers on schedule, ramps the Microsoft and Meta deals, signs additional hyperscaler or enterprise contracts, and starts to look like an AI infrastructure utility with software‑like margins. In this world, the current share price could be a way‑station to higher levels.
Base‑case volatility scenario
Execution remains solid, but:
- Discount rates stay high,
- AI enthusiasm swings in cycles,
- And valuation multiples compress.
In this world, analysts might still be roughly right on long‑term direction, but investors could see multiple 30–40% drawdowns along the way.
Bearish liquidity/competition scenario
If:
- Execution stumbles,
- AI compute demand grows more slowly than expected,
- Or capital markets shut the door on further cheap funding,
then Nebius’ leverage and capex could work in reverse, making quant models that project much lower 2026 prices look prescient.

Bull vs. bear case at a glance

Bull case highlights

Pure‑play AI infrastructure provider with full‑stack capabilities (GPU clusters + cloud + platform tools). ^[52]
Multi‑billion‑dollar Microsoft and Meta contracts that:
- Lock in demand,
- Provide revenue visibility out to 2030,
- And validate Nebius’ technical capabilities. ^[53]
Explosive revenue growth (355% in Q3) with >70% gross margins, suggesting a powerful operating model at scale. ^[54]
Strong analyst support, with no mainstream Sell ratings and price targets often 50–75% above the current price. ^[55]

Bear case highlights

Valuation that assumes near‑flawless execution: P/S around 60×, EV/revenue in the high‑50s, and P/E that’s either triple‑digit or not meaningful at all. TechStock²+2StockAnalysis+2
Massive capex and debt load, with a continuous need for external financing and the potential for shareholder dilution via the ATM program. ^[56]
Heavy concentration in a few giant customers and intense competition from other neoclouds and traditional hyperscalers. ^[57]
Extremely high volatility: beta well above 1, options implying huge swings, and recent drawdowns of ~30–40% from peak. TechStock²+2TechStock²+2

What this means if you’re watching Nebius stock

Nebius (NBIS) has quickly become one of the purest AI‑infrastructure plays on public markets:

If you believe AI compute demand will keep exploding and that Nebius can execute on its Microsoft/Meta backlog while scaling Token Factory and Aether, the long‑term narrative is powerful—which is why analysts cluster in Strong Buy territory.
If you’re more focused on capital structure, macro risk and valuation, it’s easy to see why some commentators call Nebius “too speculative” for conservative portfolios and why quant models flag it as a near‑term strong sellcandidate.

Either way, this is not a stock that behaves like a bond proxy. It’s a high‑beta, high‑valuation, execution‑sensitive AI infrastructure bet.

Important: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Always do your own research, consider your risk tolerance, and, if needed, consult a licensed financial adviser before making investment decisions.

Why I Invested Over $100K in Nebius Stock [NBIS]