As Wall Street heads into the final month of 2025, Chevron Corporation (NYSE: CVX) enters Monday’s U.S. session trading just above $151 per share, about 10.5% below its 52‑week high near $168.96 and comfortably above its spring lows around $132. [1]
The stock has underperformed the S&P 500 over the past year, weighed down by softer oil prices and company‑specific operational and legal issues, yet it still offers a dividend yield around 4.6% and an aggressive share‑repurchase program – a combination that keeps Chevron firmly on the radar of income and value‑oriented investors. [2]
Below is a detailed, news‑driven look at Chevron’s stock price, latest headlines (28–30 November 2025), fundamental backdrop and near‑term forecast before the U.S. market opens on Monday, December 1, 2025.
1. Chevron (CVX) Stock Price Recap Heading Into December 1, 2025
Because U.S. markets were closed over the weekend, the reference point for Monday’s open is Friday, November 28, 2025:
- Close: CVX gained about 1.1% on Friday to close at $151.13, marking its second consecutive day of gains and outpacing many of its integrated‑oil peers. [3]
- Intraday range: Shares traded roughly between $149–$151.5, consistent with reported day ranges on multiple data providers. [4]
- Volume: Around 3.8 million shares changed hands, about half of Chevron’s 50‑day average volume near 7.6–8.6 million, suggesting stabilisation rather than a high‑conviction breakout. [5]
On a longer horizon:
- 52‑week range: Approximately $132.04–$168.96, with Friday’s close leaving the stock about 10.5% below its March 26 high. [6]
- Total return: Over the last year, Chevron’s total return is roughly –6–7%, even as year‑to‑date total return is a modest positive, reflecting a strong first half followed by weaker energy markets. [7]
Earlier in the week, CVX had traded in the red for seven straight sessions, sliding to around $148.58 on Tuesday, before recovering into Friday’s close – a pattern that underscores how fragile sentiment has been around the stock. [8]
2. Macro Backdrop: Oil Prices, OPEC+ and the Energy Tape
Chevron’s near‑term outlook is tightly linked to crude:
- Brent crude futures ended the week around $63 per barrel, down roughly 1.7% over the past month and more than 12% year‑on‑year, a clear headwind for upstream earnings even as volumes rise. [9]
- Oil prices slipped late last week on growing expectations of a ceasefire in Ukraine, which could eventually relax sanctions and bring more Russian barrels back to market, adding to supply concerns. [10]
- Over the weekend, OPEC+ decided to keep current output policy steady into early 2026, maintaining production cuts of roughly 3.24 million barrels per day while prioritising stability. [11]
The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s latest Short‑Term Energy Outlook projects that Brent will average around $54–55 per barrel in 2026 as global inventories continue to build, a forecast that helps explain why many analysts are cautious about long‑term oil prices even as they remain constructive on Chevron’s balance sheet and assets. [12]
3. Chevron Headlines: What Happened Between 28–30 November 2025?
3.1 Sunday, November 30: Record Output, High Yield and Strategic Partnerships
a) Record output and a “high‑yield test” for investors
TechStock² published an in‑depth piece on November 30 framing Chevron as a classic “high‑yield test” for investors: the company is delivering record oil and gas production and has articulated a clear target of >10% annual free cash flow growth through 2030 at $70 Brent, but its share price has lagged amid weak oil prices and concerns about integrating the Hess acquisition. TS2 Tech+2Stock Titan+2
The article synthesizes recent data showing:
- Record Q3 production of about 4.1 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, up roughly 21% year‑on‑year. [13]
- Management’s formal plan to grow both free cash flow and earnings per share by more than 10% annually through 2030 while keeping spending disciplined (see Section 4 below). [14]
b) Chevron still a “top oil stock to research”
MarketBeat’s “Top Oil Stocks To Research – November 30th” list once again highlighted Chevron alongside Exxon Mobil and ConocoPhillips as core large‑cap oil names for investors to watch, emphasizing their scale, liquidity and dividend profiles. [15]
c) Institutional rotation: Scotia trims, others adjust
A separate MarketBeat alert reported that Scotia Capital Inc. reduced its Chevron stake by about 34% in the second quarter, selling 20,276 shares. [16] While the dollar value is trivial relative to Chevron’s ≈$304 billion market cap, it underscores the active rebalancing occurring among institutional holders after the stock’s earlier 2025 rally. [17]
Other filings (discussed further under November 29 news) show that some wealth managers are adding to CVX while others pare back, pointing to rotation rather than a one‑way stampede.
d) Deepening collaboration with TotalEnergies
Nigerian outlet Champion News reported that Chevron, via its Nigerian deepwater subsidiary Star Deep Water Petroleum Limited, is strengthening its global collaboration with TotalEnergies, building on ongoing discussions about global upstream opportunities. [18]
While details remain limited, the announcement reinforces Chevron’s commitment to offshore and deepwater projects, which are central to its long‑term production and cash‑flow growth story.
e) Buffett’s backing and free‑cash‑flow strength
Two high‑profile Motley Fool articles over the weekend reinforced investor interest:
- One piece citing Chevron among “3 Non‑AI Stocks to Buy” highlighted that in the most recent quarter the company generated about $7 billion in adjusted free cash flow and returned roughly $6 billion to shareholders via dividends and buybacks. [19]
- Another article on Warren Buffett’s five biggest holdings showed that Chevron now makes up about 5.9% of Berkshire Hathaway’s $312 billion public‑equities portfolio, sitting alongside Apple, American Express, Bank of America and Coca‑Cola in the top tier. [20]
Together, these pieces underscore the appeal of Chevron’s cash return profile to long‑term, income‑oriented investors – even as shorter‑term traders remain wary of commodity‑price volatility.
3.2 Saturday, November 29: Mixed Institutional Flows and “Hold”‑Level Targets
a) Northwestern Mutual buys, Virtue Capital sells
MarketBeat’s institutional‑ownership alerts for November 29 pointed to offsetting moves:
- Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Co. disclosed additional purchases of CVX shares, increasing its holdings during the second quarter. [21]
- Virtue Capital Management LLC, by contrast, reported selling Chevron shares, trimming its stake. [22]
These filings, along with the Scotia Capital sale, paint a picture of portfolio reshuffling rather than wholesale abandonment or accumulation – consistent with Chevron’s status as a widely held blue chip.
b) “Hold”‑tilted analyst adjustments around $155
The Virtue Capital note also recapped several recent sell‑side rating moves:
- TD Cowen raised its Chevron price target from $150 to $155, maintaining a “Hold” rating.
- Melius Research initiated coverage with a “Hold” rating and a $155 target. [23]
These targets sit only a few dollars above Friday’s close, signalling that a number of analysts view CVX as fairly valued in the near term, with most of the expected double‑digit upside pushed into the 12‑month horizon.
3.3 Friday, November 28: Trending, Yet Underperforming
a) A “Bear of the Day” despite strong operations
On November 26, Zacks Investment Research named Chevron its “Bear of the Day”, assigning the stock a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell) even after a solid third‑quarter earnings beat. [24] Key points from that analysis:
- Q3 2025 EPS of $1.85 topped the consensus estimate of around $1.66–$1.69, marking Chevron’s third straight earnings beat. [25]
- The company reported record production of about 4.1 million BOE/day, up roughly 21% year‑on‑year, thanks in part to the Hess acquisition and strong performance in the Permian Basin. [26]
- Yet earnings fell sharply versus 2024, and Zacks expects another year of declines in 2025, with consensus EPS estimates cut by multiple analysts in recent months before a modest rebound expected in 2026. [27]
Zacks argues that this two‑year earnings slump, driven largely by lower oil prices, underpins the “Strong Sell” rank even though Chevron still boasts a forward P/E around 20.5 and a dividend yield near 4.6% on an annual payout of about $6.84 per share. [28]
b) Chevron as a “trending stock”
A separate Zacks piece on November 28, flagged via Finviz, labelled Chevron “a trending stock” and encouraged investors to study earnings‑estimate revisions and fundamentals “before betting on it”, highlighting that the name is drawing unusual attention despite mixed sentiment. [29]
c) Underperformance vs the S&P 500
An article syndicated through Barchart and Yahoo Finance noted that Chevron stock has been underperforming the S&P 500, pointing to falling global oil prices and company‑specific operational and legal challenges as key drivers of that lag. [30]
d) Friday’s bounce: stabilisation, not a breakout
MarketWatch’s recap of November 28 emphasized that CVX’s 1.08% gain to $151.13:
- Outperformed the S&P 500’s 0.54% rise and the Dow’s 0.61% move.
- Still left Chevron 10.55% below its 52‑week high of $168.96.
- Came on sub‑average volume, with roughly 3.8 million shares traded vs a 50‑day average of about 7.6 million. [31]
That profile is consistent with short‑term stabilisation after a losing streak, rather than a decisive change in trend.
4. Fundamentals and Strategy: What Investor Day Told Us
Chevron’s November 12, 2025 Investor Day in New York is central to how analysts are modelling the stock going into 2026.
4.1 Five‑year plan: more cash, less spending
According to Chevron’s own Investor Day release and subsequent coverage, management laid out a five‑year roadmap to 2030 built around capital discipline and cash‑flow growth: [32]
- Free cash flow & EPS: Targeting >10% annual growth in adjusted free cash flow and earnings per share at $70 Brent. [33]
- Capex: Cutting capital‑expenditure guidance to a range of $18–$21 billion per year, while still growing production. [34]
- Breakeven: Aiming to keep the combined capex + dividend breakeven below $50 Brent through 2030, which would allow Chevron to cover its dividend and reinvestment even in weaker price environments. [35]
- Production growth: Planning to grow oil and gas production by about 2–3% annually through 2030, with key contributions from the Permian Basin, Kazakhstan’s Tengiz field and the Hess‑acquired assets in Guyana. [36]
- Synergies and cost cuts: Increasing targeted Hess synergies to $1.5 billion and structural cost reductions to $3–4 billion by the end of 2026, improving returns on capital. [37]
- AI power projects: Planning to deliver its first AI data‑center power project in West Texas by 2027, supplying natural‑gas‑fired power to large data centres – a new revenue stream that leverages Chevron’s gas assets. [38]
4.2 Shareholder returns: dividends and buybacks
Chevron reinforced its reputation as a shareholder‑friendly major:
- Over the last 25 years, Chevron has delivered an average 7% annual growth in its dividend per share, and it has repurchased stock in 18 of the past 22 years. [39]
- The company expects to repurchase $10–$20 billion of shares per year through 2030, assuming oil prices in the $60–$80 Brent range. [40]
Zacks and Benzinga both note that, at current prices, Chevron’s dividend yield is around 4.6–4.7%, positioning CVX among high‑yield large‑cap energy names, with room for continued payout growth if the cash‑flow plan is met. [41]
4.3 Recent financial performance
StockAnalysis data show that in 2024 (the latest completed fiscal year), Chevron generated revenue of about $195.6 billion, up modestly year‑on‑year, while earnings fell about 17% as oil prices normalised from the post‑pandemic boom. [42]
For Q3 2025 specifically:
- EPS was $1.85 versus expectations of roughly $1.69, a comfortable beat.
- Chevron’s production reached record levels, but earnings were still down substantially compared with the same quarter a year earlier, reflecting lower commodity prices despite volume growth. [43]
That combination — rising volumes but falling earnings — is at the heart of the debate about Chevron’s valuation heading into 2026.
5. Analyst Ratings, Price Targets and Dividend Profile
5.1 Street consensus: upside, but not a slam‑dunk
On the MarketBeat forecast page, 23 analysts covering Chevron have an average 12‑month price target of about $165.58, implying roughly 9.5% upside from recent prices around $151. [44]
- Target range: Estimates span from $124 on the low end to $204 at the high end. [45]
- Rating mix: MarketBeat characterises the consensus as “Hold”, with 10 Buy, 9 Hold and 4 Sell ratings, reflecting a notably wide spread of opinion. [46]
Other aggregators are slightly more bullish:
- StockAnalysis reports that 16 analysts currently rate CVX a “Buy” on average, with a 12‑month price target of $171.44 — about 13.4% above the latest price. [47]
- A DailyForex technical and fundamental review from early November pegged the average analyst target near $172 and noted that Chevron’s P/E multiple in the low‑20s looks inexpensive against an S&P 500 P/E above 30, though still richer than some energy peers. [48]
5.2 High‑yield status and broker commentary
A Benzinga feature on “3 energy stocks with over 4% dividend yields” highlighted Chevron’s 4.61% yield and pointed to supportive, if not euphoric, views from top‑ranked analysts: [49]
- Piper Sandler: Overweight, target trimmed slightly from $169 to $168.
- Morgan Stanley: Overweight, target raised from $177 to $180 after Investor Day.
These calls generally endorse Chevron’s long‑term cash‑flow story while acknowledging that near‑term oil price weakness justifies some valuation restraint.
6. Short‑Term Chevron Stock Forecast: The Week of December 1, 2025
6.1 Quant models: expecting a tight trading range
Algorithmic forecasts from CoinCodex project that Chevron shares will likely trade in a narrow band around current levels over the next several sessions:
- The model sees CVX hovering around $151.5 on November 30–December 2 and peaking just below $153 (about 0.8–0.9% above current prices) by mid‑week before drifting slightly lower again. [50]
In other words, no big directional move is implied; instead, quants are signalling low‑single‑digit percentage fluctuations in the very short term. As always, these are statistical extrapolations from past price behaviour, not guarantees.
6.2 Key catalysts to watch before and after the open
Heading into Monday’s U.S. session, traders in Chevron will likely focus on:
- Overnight moves in Brent and WTI following the latest OPEC+ decision to hold production policy steady and ongoing headlines about a possible Ukraine ceasefire, which could influence expectations for Russian supply. [51]
- Follow‑through from Investor Day: Any new commentary from management or analysts digesting Chevron’s 2030 roadmap – especially around Hess integration, Guyana production, and AI data‑center power projects. [52]
- Fresh analyst or institutional moves: Additional 13F filings, rating changes or target revisions similar to those from TD Cowen, Piper Sandler, Morgan Stanley and Melius. [53]
- Macro data and Fed expectations, which can influence risk appetite and sector rotation between defensives, growth names and cyclicals like energy.
Given Friday’s close near the upper end of its intraday range but on light volume, Chevron could see a small gap in either direction at the open depending on crude futures and index futures, but there is no dominant technical signal pointing to a dramatic move on day one of December.
7. Bull vs. Bear: What the Latest Data Suggest for Chevron
7.1 The bullish case (as of November 30, 2025)
Supportive arguments, echoed across the Investor Day materials and pro‑Chevron commentary, include: [54]
- Strong income profile: A 4.5–4.7% dividend yield plus sizeable and recurring buybacks make CVX attractive for investors seeking high, growing cash returns, particularly compared with the broader market.
- Clear long‑term roadmap: Management has explicitly targeted double‑digit annual growth in free cash flow and EPS through 2030 at moderate oil prices, with concrete levers (Hess synergies, cost cuts, project ramp‑ups).
- World‑class asset base: The Hess‑enabled Guyana position, the Permian Basin, Kazakhstan’s Tengiz field and global LNG and deepwater assets provide multiple avenues for growth. [55]
- Balance‑sheet strength and capital discipline: Reduced capex guidance, breakeven below $50 Brent and a history of disciplined spending give Chevron flexibility to navigate oil downturns. [56]
- High‑quality shareholder base: Major holders such as Berkshire Hathaway and large pension and wealth managers suggest patient, long‑term capital in the name. [57]
7.2 The bearish case
Sceptical views, highlighted most clearly by Zacks’ “Bear of the Day” call and more cautious “Hold”‑rated research, focus on: [58]
- Earnings pressure from weaker oil prices: Brent and WTI have spent much of 2025 well below the 2022–23 peaks, and official forecasts anticipate further softening into 2026, making it harder for Chevron to deliver its 10% growth targets without flawless execution. [59]
- Two straight years of earnings decline: Zacks expects Chevron’s earnings to fall again in 2025 after a steep drop in 2024, before rebounding in 2026 – a trajectory that, in their model, justifies a Strong Sell rank despite the dividend. [60]
- Valuation vs. energy peers: While CVX looks cheap relative to the S&P 500, a forward P/E near 20 still leaves it more expensive than several rivals, especially given the earnings downtrend. [61]
- Execution and integration risk: Integrating Hess, delivering on AI power projects, and managing complex assets in places like Guyana and Kazakhstan all carry operational, political and regulatory risks. [62]
- Legal and environmental overhangs: Articles highlighting Chevron’s underperformance also mention ongoing legal and environmental challenges, which could impact long‑term cash flows. [63]
Taken together, recent coverage paints Chevron as neither a consensus bargain nor a clear avoid: it is a high‑quality, high‑yield integrated major whose stock path will hinge on oil prices, execution of its 2030 plan and how much volatility investors are willing to tolerate.
8. What This Means Before the Bell on December 1, 2025
Heading into Monday’s open:
- Price context: CVX sits around $151, near the upper half of its 52‑week range but still roughly 11% below its high, with most 12‑month analyst targets clustered between $165 and $175. [64]
- Income appeal: A mid‑4% dividend yield, coupled with management’s commitment to buybacks and long dividend‑growth record, continues to draw income investors, as highlighted by Benzinga, Motley Fool and Zacks itself. [65]
- Short‑term outlook: Quant models foresee small, mostly sideways moves in the days immediately ahead, but headline risk around oil, geopolitics and macro data can easily override those patterns. [66]
For Google News and Discover readers, the simple takeaway is:
Chevron enters December 2025 as a high‑yield, cash‑rich energy giant trading at a modest discount to Wall Street’s long‑term targets, but its stock is still at the mercy of oil prices and execution on an ambitious 2030 growth plan.
Important note: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Always perform your own research or consult a licensed financial adviser before making trading or investment decisions.
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