As investors prepare for the U.S. trading session on Monday, December 1, 2025, MercadoLibre, Inc. (NASDAQ: MELI) enters the new week as a classic high‑growth, high‑expectation story: explosive revenue expansion, pressured margins, and a share price that has pulled back since earnings but still commands a premium valuation.
Between November 28–30, 2025, several fresh pieces of research and commentary landed on MercadoLibre, including a Zacks Research rating upgrade, bullish long‑term takes from stock pickers, and new model‑driven price forecasts that paint a more cautious near‑term technical picture. Here’s how the setup looks before the bell on Monday.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice.
MercadoLibre stock price today: where MELI stands before December 1
- Last regular-session close (Friday, November 28, 2025):
MercadoLibre closed at $2,071.78, after trading between roughly $2,050.00 and $2,090.86 during Friday’s session. [1] - After-hours on November 28:
In after-hours trading at 5:00 p.m. ET on Friday, MELI was quoted around $2,076.80, a modest 0.24% gain from the regular close. [2] - Market cap and range:
MercadoLibre’s market capitalization is about $105 billion, and over the past 12 months its market value has grown a little over 20%, even after the recent pullback. [3]
The stock’s 52‑week range runs from about $1,646 on the low end to an all‑time high near $2,645 reached earlier in 2025, placing Friday’s close roughly in the middle of that band. [4]
With U.S. markets closed over the weekend, these Friday levels are the key reference points heading into Monday’s open on December 1, 2025.
News and analyst commentary from November 28–30, 2025
1. Zacks Research upgrade: from “strong sell” to “hold”
On November 30, 2025, MarketBeat reported that Zacks Research upgraded MercadoLibre from “strong sell” to “hold.” The article notes: [5]
- Zacks shifted its stance to neutral after revisiting the Q3 numbers and the stock’s post‑earnings decline.
- Across Wall Street, 19 analysts now give MELI an average rating of “Moderate Buy,” with 16 buys (including 1 strong buy) and 3 holds. [6]
- The average 12‑month price target sits around $2,848.82, implying roughly 37% upside from a reference price around $2,082. [7]
The same piece highlights a trailing P/E ratio near 51, a market cap around $105.5 billion, and a beta above 1.5—useful reminders that MercadoLibre remains a high‑growth, higher‑volatility name. [8]
2. Zacks/Nasdaq: “Why Is MercadoLibre Down 13.9% Since Last Earnings Report?”
On November 28, 2025, Zacks Equity Research, via Nasdaq, published an article explaining why MELI shares were down about 13.9% in the month following the Q3 2025 earnings release. [9]
Key points from that analysis:
- EPS miss despite strong growth: Q3 2025 earnings per share of $8.32 missed the Zacks consensus by roughly 12%, even though EPS still grew about 6% year‑on‑year. [10]
- Revenue beat: Revenue climbed to $7.41 billion, up 39.5% year‑over‑year (49% FX‑neutral), beating estimates and driven by both commerce and fintech. [11]
- Commerce & fintech momentum:
- Commerce revenue around $4.2 billion (+33% YoY).
- Fintech (Mercado Pago) revenue roughly $3.2 billion (+49% YoY). [12]
- User metrics:
- Unique buyers reached nearly 77 million, up about 26% year‑on‑year.
- Mercado Pago monthly active users hit about 72 million, up 29%. [13]
Zacks frames the post‑earnings pullback as investors digesting the profit miss and margin pressure, rather than doubting the top‑line growth story.
3. The Motley Fool: MELI as an “ultimate growth stock”
On November 29, 2025, a Motley Fool contributor ran a piece titled roughly “The Ultimate Growth Stock to Buy With $2,000 Right Now”, arguing that MercadoLibre stands out as a long‑term growth opportunity. [14]
While the full article is paywalled, the snippets and syndication summaries emphasize:
- MercadoLibre is described as the leading e‑commerce company in Latin America, with a long runway as online retail and digital payments penetrate the region. [15]
- The thesis leans on the company’s integrated ecosystem (marketplace, payments, credit, logistics, and advertising) and the fact that it continues to grow revenue near 40% year‑on‑year at scale.
This is clearly an opinion piece, but its publication over the weekend ensures MELI is front‑of‑mind for growth‑oriented retail investors heading into December.
4. Short‑term options and trading commentary
An options‑focused trading note dated November 28, 2025 highlights that analysts covering MELI carry a consensus recommendation close to “strong buy” and a mean price target around $2,847, signaling substantial upside from current levels. [16]
That view broadly aligns with the more detailed MarketBeat and StockAnalysis data, which also cluster consensus price targets in the $2,850–$2,900 range. [17]
5. Algorithmic technical forecast turns cautious
A separate, model‑driven forecast from CoinCodex, updated late on November 30, 2025, adds a contrasting, more cautious angle: [18]
- Current reference price: $2,071.78.
- Short‑term forecast: Their technical model expects MELI to drift lower over the next week, projecting a move down to around $1,917.96 by December 5, 2025 (about ‑7.4%).
- End‑of‑December projection: An average December price near $2,139.55, with a range between $1,917.96 and $2,402.86—roughly 16% higher than the model’s reference point.
- Indicators:
- Overall sentiment tagged as “bearish”,
- Fear & Greed Index at 39 (“Fear”),
- MELI trading below several key moving averages (50‑ and 200‑day SMAs above $2,190 and $2,270, respectively).
CoinCodex itself notes that these are algorithmic projections, not investment advice, but for traders they reinforce the idea of elevated volatility and near‑term downside risk even within a long‑term bullish narrative.
Earnings backdrop: Q3 2025 still driving the story
The Q3 2025 results, released on October 29, remain the central fundamental driver behind November’s price action.
From MercadoLibre’s own press release and follow‑up coverage: [19]
- Net revenue:
- $7.4 billion, up 39% year‑on‑year,
- 27th consecutive quarter of revenue growth above 30% YoY.
- Profitability:
- Income from operations: $724 million,
- Operating margin: 9.8%,
- Net income: $421 million, 5.7% net margin.
- Commerce segment:
- Commerce net revenue: $4.2 billion, up 33% in USD,
- GMV: $16.5 billion (+28% in USD, +35% FX‑neutral),
- Items sold: 635 million, up 39%, with about 80% of fast deliveries within 48 hours.
- Fintech (Mercado Pago):
- Net revenue: $3.2 billion, up 49% in USD,
- Total payment volume above $71 billion, up 41%,
- Credit portfolio: about $11.0 billion, up 83%,
- Monthly active users: ~72 million, up 29%.
Reuters singled out two important margin headwinds: [20]
- Brazil free‑shipping push:
Lowering the free‑shipping threshold in Brazil boosted growth (GMV +34% and the fastest unique‑buyer growth since early 2021), but pressured EBIT margins, which fell to 9.8%, the lowest since Q4 2023. - Argentina macro stress:
Currency devaluation and weaker demand in Argentina further weighed on profitability, even as Mexico remained margin‑accretive.
Put simply, growth is not the issue—the debate is about how much margin MercadoLibre must give up to defend and extend its leadership in Latin American e‑commerce and fintech.
Analyst sentiment and MELI stock forecast
Despite the post‑earnings pullback, sell‑side sentiment remains broadly positive.
Wall Street price targets
Different data providers show slightly different analyst counts, but the message is consistent:
- MarketBeat:
- 19 analysts covering MELI,
- Consensus rating: “Moderate Buy”,
- Average 12‑month target:$2,848.82,
- Target range: roughly $2,300–$3,500, implying around 37% upside from ~$2,080. [21]
- StockAnalysis:
- 18 analysts,
- Consensus rating: “Strong Buy,”
- Average target near $2,874, implying close to 39% upside. [22]
- Public.com:
- 16 analysts,
- Consensus rating: Buy,
- Average 2025 price prediction around $2,876.88. [23]
Notable recent analyst moves
In November, several high‑profile brokerages updated their MELI targets: [24]
- UBS (Nov 24):
Cut its target from $3,000 to $2,900, still implying roughly ~49% upside when issued, while maintaining a Buy rating. [25] - BTIG (Nov 14):
Reiterated Buy with a target of $2,750. [26] - Morgan Stanley (Nov 3):
Raised its target to $2,950 and kept an Overweight rating. [27] - JPMorgan, Barclays, Benchmark (late October / early November):
Issued targets generally between roughly $2,650 and $2,900, also with positive ratings. [28]
Overall, Wall Street’s 12‑month view still imagines MELI trading roughly one‑third higher than Friday’s close, assuming the company can sustain high‑30s revenue growth while gradually stabilizing margins.
Technical and quantitative picture into early December
While fundamental analysts remain mostly bullish, technical and quantitative indicators are more mixed heading into December 1.
According to CoinCodex and other data sources: [29]
- MELI trades below its 50‑day and 200‑day simple moving averages (around $2,193 and $2,275), a setup many technicians view as a sign of a medium‑term downtrend or at least overhead resistance.
- The 14‑day RSI around 34 sits near the lower end of neutral, hinting at lingering selling pressure but not extreme oversold conditions.
- The site’s quantitative model flags bearish short‑term sentiment and projects a potential 7% pullback during the first week of December, even while calling for a higher average price by year‑end. [30]
Traders watching these signals may interpret the current zone near $2,050–$2,100 as a potential battleground between dip‑buyers leaning on fundamentals and technically driven sellers focused on the broken trendline and moving averages.
Strategic and competitive context
Beyond the week‑to‑week moves, several structural themes continue to shape how investors value MELI.
1. Logistics and Brazilian expansion (including Casas Bahia)
MercadoLibre is still plowing cash into logistics and free‑shipping in Brazil, its largest market. Q3 saw: [31]
- A big expansion in fulfillment capacity (total capacity up 41% YoY).
- Record levels of same‑day and next‑day deliveries in key markets.
- An 8% quarter‑over‑quarter drop in unit shipping costs in Brazil in local currency, showing early efficiency gains despite the higher service level.
Additionally, a new long‑term partnership with Brazilian retailer Casas Bahia went live in November: [32]
- MercadoLibre will list Casas Bahia’s electronics and home appliances on its marketplace in Brazil.
- Casas Bahia will handle much of the logistics for large items such as TVs and refrigerators.
- The deal is intended to boost MercadoLibre’s share of large appliances, a segment where it has historically under‑indexed relative to its overall Brazilian market share.
If the partnership scales smoothly, December and Q1 2026 data could show incremental GMV growth in Brazil’s higher‑ticket categories, which may support the bull case.
2. Competition: Amazon, Shopee, and others
The competitive landscape remains intense, especially in Brazil and Mexico.
A recent report from Investor’s Business Daily highlighted Amazon’s rollout of a low‑cost “Amazon Bazaar” app in 14 countries across Asia, Africa and Latin America, including markets where MercadoLibre competes. The app allows direct shipments from Chinese merchants and emphasizes ultra‑low prices, putting pressure on local players like MercadoLibre and Shopee. [33]
Combined with aggressive promotions from Shopee, Magazine Luiza and others, this keeps pricing and logistics in the spotlight—exactly where MercadoLibre is already investing heavily.
3. Fintech growth vs. credit risk
Mercado Pago, the company’s fintech arm, is increasingly central to the investment story:
- Credit portfolio up 83% YoY to about $11 billion, led largely by credit cards, with improving delinquency rates. [34]
- Assets under management jumped 89% YoY to around $15.1 billion, reflecting broader adoption of MercadoLibre’s financial products. [35]
The flip side is credit risk and macro exposure:
- Argentina’s economic instability and currency issues can quickly affect both loan performance and consumer purchasing power.
- A global risk‑off move or regional recession could test just how resilient Mercado Pago’s underwriting really is.
For now, both company disclosures and third‑party analyses suggest credit quality is holding up, but it remains a core risk investors will watch as 2026 approaches. [36]
Short‑term outlook for MELI before the December 1 open
Heading into Monday, December 1, 2025, the setup for MercadoLibre looks like this:
Bullish factors
- Exceptional growth at scale:
Nearly 40% revenue growth on a $7+ billion quarterly top line, with strength in both commerce and fintech. [37] - Powerful ecosystem:
Integrated marketplace, payments, credit, logistics and advertising form a defensible, multi‑revenue engine across 18 countries in Latin America. [38] - Analyst support:
Wall Street remains broadly constructive, with most analysts rating MELI a Buy/Strong Buy and clustering price targets in the $2,800–$2,900 range—about 35–40% above Friday’s close. [39] - Structural tailwinds:
E‑commerce penetration and digital payments in Latin America still lag developed markets, leaving a long runway for MercadoLibre’s core businesses. [40]
Bearish and cautious factors
- Valuation risk:
A P/E near 50 and premium multiples leave little room for disappointment if growth slows or margins fail to recover. [41] - Margin pressure:
Investments in free shipping, logistics and credit expansion have compressed margins, and management has signaled willingness to trade near‑term profitability for growth. [42] - Technical headwinds:
The stock trades below its major moving averages, with model‑driven forecasts calling for potential single‑digit downside in early December even while projecting higher prices into year‑end. [43] - Macro and FX exposure:
Heavy exposure to countries like Argentina and Brazil means earnings are sensitive to currency swings, inflation, regulatory moves and political risk. [44]
Bottom line
As of Sunday night, November 30, 2025, MercadoLibre stock sits around $2,070 per share, well below its mid‑year highs but still valued as one of the premier growth platforms in emerging‑markets e‑commerce and fintech.
- Fundamental analysts largely see the recent pullback as a reset after an EPS miss rather than a thesis‑breaker, and their 12‑month targets point to meaningful upside if current growth trends persist.
- Short‑term technical and quantitative models, however, are flashing a more cautious signal, suggesting the path into early December could be choppy, with downside volatility possible before any renewed uptrend.
For investors watching before the December 1, 2025 market open, MELI remains exactly what it has been for years: a high‑conviction growth story for those willing to stomach macro, competitive and valuation risk—and a stock that can move sharply in either direction on even subtle changes in sentiment or guidance.
Again, this overview is informational only, not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold MercadoLibre. Anyone considering an investment should evaluate their own risk tolerance, time horizon and consult a qualified financial professional if needed.
References
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