As U.S. markets get ready to open on Monday, December 1, 2025, investors in Linde plc (NASDAQ: LIN) are digesting a flurry of fresh institutional filings, a new debt issue, and updated valuation models – all released between November 28 and 30, 2025. Here’s a comprehensive look at where the Linde stock price stands now, what changed over the weekend, and what the latest forecasts suggest heading into December.
Linde Stock Price Snapshot Before the December 1 Open
As of the close on Friday, November 28, 2025, Linde shares:
- Closed at:$410.32
- Daily move: +0.59% vs. the prior session [1]
- After-hours indication: Around $410.7 in late trading on Friday [2]
- Market cap: Roughly $191–192 billion [3]
- 52-week range: About $406.09 (low) to $486.38 (high) [4]
- Distance from extremes:
- ~+1% above the 52‑week low
- ~15–16% below the 52‑week high [5]
Turnover on November 28 was sizeable, with trading value around $476 million, even as the stock remains down roughly 11% over the last year and modestly negative year‑to‑date. [6]
In short, Linde enters the first December session priced near the lower end of its yearly range but still carrying a premium large‑cap industrial gases valuation.
Fundamental Backdrop: Q3 Beat, Cautious Q4 and Europe Weakness
The October 31, 2025 earnings report still frames much of the current debate around LIN stock:
- Q3 2025 results:
- Adjusted EPS: $4.21, above the $4.18 consensus
- Sales: $8.62 billion, up about 3% year over year [7]
- Regional pressure: Volume in the Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA) region fell roughly 3%, and management signaled this weakness is likely to continue. [8]
- Q4 2025 guidance:
- Adjusted EPS forecast: $4.10–$4.20, compared to analyst expectations around $4.23 at the time, implying 3–6% EPS growth (1–4% excluding FX tailwinds). [9]
- Full‑year 2025 outlook: Linde reaffirmed 5–6% adjusted EPS growth despite European industrial softness. [10]
Commentary from GuruFocus and other fundamental screens highlights still‑strong profitability: net margin around 20%, operating margin in the high‑20s, an Altman Z‑score indicating healthy balance sheet strength, and an ROE near 18–19%. [11]
This sets the stage: structurally attractive margins and a strong backlog, but a near‑term headwind from Europe and slightly underwhelming Q4 guidance.
What Changed November 28–30, 2025? Key News Round‑Up
Between Friday and Sunday (Nov. 28–30), most of the new information around Linde came from institutional ownership disclosures, capital markets activity, and updated valuation work by analysts and data platforms.
1. Institutional Investors: Continued Interest With Some Rebalancing
A series of MarketBeat filings over the weekend show large investors tweaking Linde positions, mostly on the buy side:
- Quadrant Capital Group LLC
- Increased its Linde stake by 26.4% in Q2.
- Now owns 13,231 shares, worth roughly $6.21 million. [12]
- Groupama Asset Management
- Lifted its holding by 6.8%, adding 2,001 shares.
- Total position: 31,386 shares, valued near $14.56 million. [13]
- West Family Investments Inc.
- Boosted its LIN stake by 44.3% in Q2.
- Now holds 2,908 shares, about $1.36 million in value. [14]
- BLI Banque de Luxembourg Investments
- Increased its position by a striking 296%, adding 15,400 shares.
- Now owns 20,600 shares, valued around $9.55 million. [15]
Offsetting some of that buying:
- New York State Common Retirement Fund
- Trimmed its Linde position by around 3.3%, selling 19,356 shares.
- Still holds about 572,146 shares, worth roughly $268 million, or ~0.12% of the company. [16]
Across these filings, institutional ownership remains very high at about 82.8% of Linde’s shares outstanding, underlining that LIN continues to be treated as a core holding by professional investors rather than a speculative trade. [17]
2. New Euro‑Denominated Debt: €1.75 Billion Multi‑Tranche Notes
On November 30, 2025, Simply Wall St published an analysis of Linde’s recently issued €1.75 billion multi‑tranche euro notes, sold on November 20 with maturities in 2027, 2032 and 2038 and listed on the Luxembourg Stock Exchange. [18]
Key takeaways from that piece:
- The financing supports “general corporate purposes” and underscores Linde’s continued access to deep European capital markets.
- The authors argue that this does not materially change the short‑term investment thesis, which is still driven mainly by backlog conversion in clean energy and infrastructure, and by how the company navigates lingering weakness in European industrial demand. [19]
From a balance‑sheet perspective, Linde already runs with moderate leverage (debt‑to‑equity around 0.5) and strong cash flow generation, so the new notes look more like opportunistic refinancing and growth capital than emergency funding. [20]
3. Dividend and Calendar Catalysts: Ex‑Dividend and Conferences
Linde’s dividend and upcoming investor events are also in focus as December begins:
- Dividend:
- Quarterly dividend: $1.50 per share (annualized $6.00).
- Yield: about 1.5% at current prices.
- Record date: December 3, 2025
- Payment date: December 17, 2025 [21]
- Upcoming investor conferences (Dec 2–4):
- UBS Global Industrials and Transportation Conference – December 2
- Citi 2025 Basic Materials Conference – December 3
- Goldman Sachs Industrials and Materials Conference – December 4
- Linde’s CFO and Investor Relations leadership are scheduled speakers. [22]
These events could bring incremental commentary on European demand, project backlog timing, and clean‑energy initiatives, any of which might influence the stock later in the week.
4. UBS 2026 EPS View: Faster Growth Coming?
A November 29 article from Insider Monkey revisited UBS’s bullish stance on Linde: [23]
- UBS reaffirmed its Buy rating on November 19 with a $500 price target.
- The bank expects adjusted EPS growth to accelerate, from around 6% in 2025 to roughly 9–10% in 2026, assuming headwinds such as softer base volumes and low helium/rare gas prices start to ease.
- The note characterizes Linde as having a favorable “up/downside skew” to earnings when growth re‑accelerates and project wins come online.
This dovetails with the broader view that 2025 is a transition year, with more attractive growth potential in 2026–2027 if industrial demand normalizes and new projects ramp.
5. Fair Value and Price Target Updates: Valuation Still Screened as Attractive
Several platforms updated or reiterated their LIN stock forecasts during the Nov. 28–30 window:
TickerNerd (updated November 30, 2025)
- Compiles 31 Wall Street analysts covering Linde.
- Median 12‑month price target:$516
- Target range: $381–$560
- Rating mix: 22 Buy, 2 Hold, 1 Sell – a clearly bullish consensus.
- Implied upside from $410.32: ~25.8%. [24]
Public.com (data as of November 30, 2025)
- Based on 9 analysts, Linde carries a “Buy” consensus.
- Analyst mix: 44% Strong Buy, 56% Buy, 0% Hold or Sell.
- Average price target: about $504.44. [25]
Simply Wall St (November 30, 2025 Euro note article)
- Their intrinsic value model suggests a fair value around $505.61, roughly 23% above the current share price.
- Community fair value estimates span approximately $300–$505, reflecting both optimism and concern over European industrial risk. [26]
Sell‑side price target context
TickerNerd also lists recent calls from major brokers: [27]
- UBS: $500 (Buy, raised from Neutral in November).
- RBC Capital: $540 (Outperform; modestly trimmed from a prior $576 earlier in 2025).
- Citigroup: $520 (Buy).
- JPMorgan: $455 (Overweight).
- Bernstein: around $516 (Outperform).
Across sources, Linde generally screens as undervalued by 20–30% relative to consensus and fair‑value models, despite trading at a premium multiple to the broader market.
Quant and Technical Views: What Algorithms Are Seeing
While human analysts are broadly constructive, some algorithmic and technical tools are more cautious on the near‑term path of LIN stock:
- A quantitative forecast from PandaForecast (as of late November) targets a price in the high $410s for late November, with commentary that “negative dynamics” might dominate near term and day‑to‑day volatility of roughly 2%. [28]
- TickerNerd data shows:
- 1‑week change: about ‑0.6%
- 1‑month change: ‑4.6%
- 1‑year change: ‑11%
- About 15.6% below the 52‑week high. [29]
- Moving averages from MarketBeat reports:
- 50‑day moving average in the low‑ to mid‑$440s
- 200‑day moving average around the mid‑$450s [30]
Together, these suggest:
- Short‑term trend: Downward/sideways since the Q4 guidance underwhelmed.
- Near‑term support area: The $406–$410 zone, which combines the recent 52‑week low with the current price cluster.
- Initial resistance: The $440–$450 range, where major moving averages and pre‑earnings levels converge.
This is market color, not a trading plan – but it frames what many technical traders are likely watching into the December 1 session.
Longer‑Term Linde Stock Forecasts: Backlog, Hydrogen and AI‑Driven Efficiency
Beyond the next few days, several deep‑dive models attempt to project Linde’s returns over a multi‑year horizon.
TIKR Valuation Model (Updated November 13, 2025)
A valuation piece from TIKR argues that Linde’s $10 billion project backlog, expansion into electronics and commercial space, and extensive use of AI to improve operations give the company a strong long‑term runway: [31]
- Base case assumptions:
- Revenue growth: ~5.4% per year
- Net income margin: ~24–25%
- Exit P/E multiple: ~26x
Under those inputs:
- LIN shares could move from roughly $429 to about $528 over the next 4+ years, implying ~23% total return or around 10% annually. [32]
- More optimistic scenarios, assuming stronger industrial recovery and accelerated electronics demand, point to potential prices as high as $600–$640 by 2029, while a bearish case might still deliver mid‑single‑digit annual returns due to the contracted backlog and pricing power. [33]
Importantly, TIKR emphasizes that Linde has:
- Grown EPS through multiple economic cycles,
- Expanded margins via pricing and productivity, and
- Built high switching costs through on‑site gas infrastructure and long‑term contracts. [34]
Simply Wall St Narrative Forecast to 2028
Simply Wall St’s narrative engine projects Linde to reach approximately $38.9 billion in revenue and about $9.1 billion in earnings by 2028, requiring roughly 5.4% annual revenue growth and a sizeable increase from current profit levels. [35]
On that basis, they estimate a fair value around $505–$506 per share, again implying low‑20s percent upside versus the late‑November price.
Analyst Consensus: 12‑Month vs Multi‑Year
Taking the full range of models together:
- 12‑month Street consensus:
- Median target: $504–$516 (Public.com and TickerNerd). [36]
- Extended horizon modeling (e.g., TIKR, Simply Wall St):
- Base cases generally aim for high single‑digit to low double‑digit annual returns through 2028–2029, assuming backlog conversion and stable or improving margins. [37]
None of these projections are guarantees, but they explain why LIN still appears on many lists of defensive compounders despite the recent pullback.
Key Risks: Why the Market Has Marked the Stock Down
If the story is so strong, why is Linde trading near its yearly lows? The recent commentary points to several risks:
- European de‑industrialization and weak demand
- Guidance that under‑whelmed the market
- Q4 EPS guidance of $4.10–$4.20 came in below consensus, which likely contributed to the stock’s slide from the mid‑$450s to the low $410s. [40]
- Valuation premium vs. cyclicals
- Even after the pullback, Linde trades around 27–30x earnings, several turns above many industrial or chemical peers. [41]
- That premium requires investors to stay confident in high return on capital and steady growth despite macro headwinds.
- Sector‑specific and regulatory risks
- Analyst summaries point to potential pressure from regulations, carbon policy, and shifts in industrial gas demand, plus the usual FX and commodity price swings (especially for helium and rare gases). [42]
These risks go a long way toward explaining why, despite bullish analyst targets, LIN stock has de‑rated from earlier highs.
What to Watch at the December 1, 2025 Open and Through the Week
Going into Monday’s session, here are the main signposts traders and long‑term investors are likely to watch:
- Price Action Around Support (~$406–$410)
- With the stock hovering just above its 52‑week low, any break below that area on heavy volume could signal that investors are still re‑pricing European risk.
- Conversely, stabilization or a modest bounce near current levels would fit the narrative that fundamentals remain intact and that much of the bad news is already priced in. [43]
- Dividend and Ex‑Dividend Dynamics
- The December 3 ex‑dividend date typically leads to a mechanical drop in the share price roughly equal to the dividend amount, all else equal. Investors focused on income may be positioning ahead of (or after) that date. [44]
- Commentary from UBS, Citi and Goldman Sachs Conferences
- Any updated commentary on:
- European volume trends
- New project wins in hydrogen, clean fuels or electronics
- Capital allocation (buybacks vs. capex vs. M&A)
could move the stock as the week unfolds. [45]
- Any updated commentary on:
- Street and Quant Models vs. Reality
- Quant tools flag near‑term choppiness, while the analyst consensus and valuation models still project 20–30% upside over the next year. How the stock trades around macro headlines and these December conferences will help show which camp is gaining the upper hand. [46]
Bottom Line: Linde Stock Entering December at an Inflection Point
Heading into the December 1, 2025 market open, Linde plc finds itself in a classic setup:
- Near‑term reality:
- The stock is under pressure, Europe is soft, and Q4 guidance disappointed.
- Institutional behavior:
- Large investors continue to accumulate or modestly trim, not abandon, their positions, keeping institutional ownership near 83%. [47]
- Forecasts and valuations:
- Most 12‑month and multi‑year models point to meaningful upside from current levels, backed by a record backlog, strong margins and a growing role in clean energy and electronics. [48]
For now, the market is weighing near‑term macro risk against long‑term compounding potential. How LIN trades around the $410 zone, the December dividend dates, and next week’s conference commentary will be key signals for how that debate is being resolved.
Disclaimer:
This article is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial or investment advice. Stock prices, forecasts, and analyst targets are inherently uncertain and may change rapidly. Always conduct your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before making investment decisions.
References
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