TJX Stock Outlook Before the Bell on December 1, 2025: Near Record Highs as Wall Street Stays Bullish

Published: December 1, 2025 – Pre‑market overview for The TJX Companies, Inc. (NYSE: TJX)

The TJX Companies, Inc. (NYSE: TJX) heads into the first trading day of December sitting just below record territory, buoyed by a clean earnings beat, raised guidance, and a cluster of bullish analyst calls and TV shout‑outs over the November 28–30 weekend.

TJX closed on Friday, November 28, at $151.92 per share, with a day’s range of $151.52–$153.06 and volume of about 2.5 million shares, according to the company’s own historical quote data. ^[1] That’s only a few dollars below its 52‑week high of $154.66, hit on November 26. ^[2]

Ahead of Monday’s U.S. market open on December 1, investors are digesting three days of fresh data: institutional trading updates, valuation upgrades, and new commentary from high‑profile market voices – all against the backdrop of a tight U.S. consumer and a crucial holiday shopping season.

TJX stock price snapshot heading into Monday’s open

Price & valuation

Last close (Nov 28, 2025): $151.92
52‑week range: $112.10–$154.66 ^[3]
Market cap: roughly $170–171 billion at current levels ^[4]
Trailing P/E: about 34–35x earnings; PEG ratio around 3.1 ^[5]
Dividend: quarterly $0.425 per share (about 1.1% yield annualized). ^[6]

Several data providers show a small after‑hours slip on Friday to roughly $151.83, but overall the stock is essentially flat versus the official close and remains near its highs. ^[7]

Performance vs peers and the Dow

Barchart’s November 28 analysis notes that TJX has: ^[8]

Gained 12% over the past three months, versus about 4.4% for the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
Risen 21.3% over the past 12 months, outpacing both the Dow (about 5.7%) and rival off‑price retailer Ross Stores.

The stock has traded above its 200‑day moving average since late July and above its 50‑day moving average since early November, underscoring solid medium‑term momentum. ^[9]

What changed for TJX between November 28 and 30?

1. Hedge funds trim – and add – around the edges

Teca Partners LP cuts stake (Nov 28)
MarketBeat reported on November 28 that Teca Partners LP reduced its TJX position by 23.5%, selling 24,282 shares and retaining 79,229 shares valued at about $9.78 million. ^[10] The article also highlights:

TJX stock recently trading around $153, near a one‑year high of $154.66.
A still‑lofty valuation near 35x earnings and PEG around 3.14.
A quarterly dividend of $0.425, implying a yield of around 1.1%. ^[11]

Boston Partners trims holdings (Nov 30)
On November 30, MarketBeat disclosed that Boston Partners sold 4,104 shares, cutting its stake by 13.9% to 25,412 shares worth roughly $3.14 million. ^[12]

XTX Topco opens new position (Nov 29)
Balancing those reductions, XTX Topco Ltd opened a new TJX position in Q2, buying 11,128 shares valued around $1.37 million, according to another MarketBeat alert on November 29. ^[13]

Across these filings, MarketBeat notes that about 91% of TJX’s shares are held by hedge funds and other institutional investors, underscoring the stock’s status as a core institutional name rather than a speculative play. ^[14]

Takeaway: The late‑November 13F updates show portfolio‑level fine‑tuning – modest trimming from some holders and fresh buying from others – not a broad institutional exit.

2. Street raises and reaffirms bullish forecasts

Consensus 12‑month price targets

Different analyst aggregators updated or reiterated their TJX views over the last few days:

Barchart (Nov 28) reports a “Strong Buy” consensus from 20 analysts, with a mean price target of $163.36, implying about 6.7% upside from current levels. The Street‑high target of $181 suggests roughly 18% potential upside. ^[15]
StockAnalysis.com shows 17 analysts with a “Strong Buy” and an average target of $161.06, or +6.02% over the next year (range $145–$181). ^[16]
Futu/Futubull’s forecast page, last updated November 30, shows 15 analysts, 100% rated “Buy”, with an average target of $165.62 and a range of $154–$181. ^[17]

MarketBeat’s coverage of the institutional trades also recaps recent target hikes from Wells Fargo, TD Cowen, Evercore ISI, JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs, pointing to a consensus target around $158.90 and a broad “Buy” rating profile (one Strong Buy, 23 Buys, one Hold). ^[18]

Fair value estimates edge higher

On November 29, Simply Wall St published a deep‑dive titled “The Bull Case For TJX Companies (TJX) Could Change Following Raised 2026 Sales and Earnings Guidance.” The piece highlights: ^[19]

Management’s raised outlook for Fiscal 2026, with sales now guided as high as $59.9 billion.
A narrative projecting $68.6 billion in revenue and $6.3 billion in earnings by 2028, implying roughly 5.8% annual revenue growth from current levels.
A fair value estimate of about $159.16 per share – roughly 5% upside from where TJX currently trades.

Yahoo Finance’s “recent developments” note similarly points out that TJX’s Fair Value Estimate has been lifted from roughly $151.84 to $159.16, reflecting analysts’ more optimistic view after the Q3 beat and guidance raise. ^[20]

Bottom line on forecasts: Across data providers, Wall Street’s one‑year price targets cluster in the $160–$166 zone, with bull cases around $181 and only a small handful of Hold ratings. That implies mid‑single‑digit to high‑single‑digit upside on top of the dividend, assuming earnings and margins stay on track.

3. High‑profile commentary: Cramer, Brown, and the “anti‑tech” narrative

Jim Cramer: “TJX is at its highest, tremendous momentum” (Nov 29)

In a November 29 recap, Insider Monkey highlighted comments from CNBC’s Jim Cramer, who reiterated his positive stance on TJX for his Charitable Trust. He described TJX as being at its “highest” with “tremendous momentum”, and emphasized that the off‑price chain tends to “thrive when the rest of retail’s in trouble.” ^[21]

Cramer praised the company’s most recent quarter – top‑ and bottom‑line beats and 5% same‑store sales growth versus roughly 3.7% expected – while arguing that occasional post‑earnings pullbacks have historically been buying opportunities. ^[22]

Josh Brown & Invezz: one of the “best retail stocks” into the holidays (Nov 30)

On November 30, Invezz (via CryptoRank) named TJX Companies one of the “best retail stocks to own heading into the 2025 holiday season,” alongside Ulta Beauty. ^[23] Key TJX points from that piece:

Operates over 5,000 stores worldwide, many positioned near Target locations, making it a convenient value alternative for cost‑conscious shoppers.
Relies on a decentralized pricing model, letting local merchants adjust ticket prices to maintain a strong “bargain” perception – a core driver of traffic and loyalty.
EPS has climbed from $2.97 in fiscal 2023 to $4.26 in fiscal 2025, with fiscal 2026 EPS guidance raised to $4.34–$4.43. ^[24]
Comparable sales grew 5% in the latest quarter, even as consumers cut back in other categories. ^[25]

Brown also highlighted technical “risk levels” around $140 and $134, suggesting those as key support zones traders should watch, while longer‑term investors may focus more on the company’s steady habit of raising guidance and its roughly 1.1–1.2% dividend yield. ^[26]

Financial Times: TJX as the $166bn “anti‑tech” stock (around Nov 28)

A recent Financial Times column labeled TJX a kind of “anti‑tech” stock, noting that:

TJX has grown to a market cap near $166 billion with about $56.3 billion in global sales, roughly doubling in value over the last two years. ^[27]
Less than 2% of its sales come from e‑commerce; the model is built on in‑store “treasure hunt” shopping and a constantly changing mix of discounted branded inventory. ^[28]
In a world where many retailers are pouring capital into AI and digital initiatives, TJX’s edge remains analog – skilled buyers, flexible store managers, and a loyal base of value‑driven customers. ^[29]

Together, these commentaries reinforce a common theme: TJX is being framed as a high‑quality, resilient compounder, not a speculative holiday trade.

Fundamentals still driven by a strong Q3 FY26 and raised guidance

Most of the late‑November coverage ties back to TJX’s Q3 Fiscal 2026 results, released on November 19.

According to the company’s press release and follow‑up reports: ^[30]

Net sales:$15.12 billion, up 7–7.5% year‑on‑year, beating consensus expectations around $14.8–14.9 billion.
Comparable sales: up 5% overall, with especially strong momentum at the Marmaxx (T.J. Maxx & Marshalls) and TJX Canada banners. ^[31]
Pretax profit margin:12.7%, above internal plans.
EPS:$1.28, ahead of the ~$1.22 consensus and up more than 12% year‑over‑year. ^[32]

Management also raised Fiscal 2026 guidance, now calling for: ^[33]

Full‑year EPS:$4.63–$4.66 (up from prior guidance and about 9% growth versus FY25).
Q4 FY26 EPS:$1.33–$1.36, with comparable sales expected to grow 2–3%. ^[34]

StockAnalysis’ consensus forecast broadly lines up with this guidance, modeling FY26 revenue at about $60.3 billion and EPS around $4.65, rising to $63.7 billion and $5.12 the following year – mid‑single‑digit revenue growth and low‑double‑digit EPS growth. ^[35]

In short, the earnings story currently supporting TJX near record highs is:

Healthy traffic and comps across key banners.
Margin expansion despite freight and wage pressures.
Consistent guidance raises, reinforcing management’s confidence heading into the holiday quarter.

Holiday and macro backdrop: big retailers confident, value still in demand

The 2025 holiday shopping season is a key catalyst for TJX, and late‑November coverage suggests a split retail landscape:

A MarketWatch feature on large U.S. retailers – including Walmart, Best Buy, and TJX – notes that big chains are projecting confidence as they enter the season, citing steady inventories and resilient demand despite higher tariffs and uneven small‑business conditions. ^[36]
The Financial Times and other outlets emphasize that TJX is benefiting from consumers trading down, as shoppers feel the pinch from higher everyday costs but still want branded merchandise. ^[37]
Invezz’s holiday stock pick article stresses that TJX’s value positioning and flexible pricing give it an edge as consumers hunt for bargains – and that the company has successfully translated that dynamic into rising EPS and comp sales. ^[38]

For now, the macro message from the Street is that value‑oriented, off‑price retailers like TJX are on the right side of the consumer divide, even as other discretionary names struggle.

Key risks highlighted in the latest analyses

Even bullish coverage flags several medium‑term risks investors should keep in mind:

Supply of off‑price inventory
Simply Wall St warns that if major brands and full‑price retailers improve their inventory management, the flow of high‑quality excess stock that feeds TJX’s buying model could shrink over time – potentially pressuring margins and the “treasure hunt” appeal. ^[39]
Shift towards e‑commerce and digital retail
With less than 2% of TJX sales currently online, the company remains very store‑centric. That’s part of its charm – and its risk – in a world of rising digital expectations. The FT’s “anti‑tech” framing captures that tension: analog strengths can be a moat, but they can also look outdated if consumer behavior shifts faster than TJX adapts. ^[40]
Valuation risk at near‑record highs
At roughly 34–35x trailing earnings, TJX trades at a premium to many other retailers. MarketBeat and Barchart both underscore that the stock is near its one‑year high and that upside to consensus targets is now measured in single‑digit percentages – leaving less room for error if comps or margins disappoint. ^[41]
Technical support levels
Josh Brown, via Invezz, highlights $140 and $134 as levels traders are watching on the downside, implying that a break below those zones could signal a deeper pullback. ^[42]

TJX stock forecast: what to watch before the December 1 open

Putting it all together, here’s how TJX looks heading into Monday’s U.S. session:

Momentum: Strong. The stock has outperformed the Dow and key peers over the past year and six months, riding a powerful post‑earnings rally. ^[43]
Fundamentals: Solid. Q3 FY26 delivered better‑than‑expected sales, comps and EPS, and management raised full‑year guidance, with Street consensus now modeling continued revenue and EPS growth in FY26 and FY27. ^[44]
Street view: Constructive. Multiple datasets show a “Strong Buy” or “Buy” consensus and a 12‑month price target range centered around $160–$166, with high‑case targets at $181. That translates into modest but positive upside from current levels, plus a ~1% dividend. ^[45]
Flows & positioning: Institutional ownership is high (~91%), with late‑November filings showing a mix of trimming and new buying rather than wholesale de‑risking. ^[46]
Risks: A rich valuation, reliance on off‑price inventory availability, and a still‑small digital channel could amplify volatility if the macro backdrop deteriorates or if the holiday quarter underwhelms. ^[47]

For traders and investors watching TJX before the bell on December 1, the key near‑term questions are:

Does early holiday data confirm the 5% comp‑sales momentum seen in Q3?
Do analysts push targets higher again if Q4 guidance proves conservative – or start trimming them if traffic softens?
Can the stock hold support in the mid‑$140s to high‑$130s if the broader market stumbles, given current valuation? ^[48]

At today’s levels, TJX is being treated by Wall Street more as a high‑quality, steady compounder than a deep‑value bargain – a status that brings both comfort and higher expectations.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always do your own research or consult a licensed financial professional before making investment decisions.