Is Northern Star Resources (ASX:NST) Still a Buy After a 64% Rally? Latest News, Price Targets and Gold Outlook as of 1 December 2025

Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX:NST) heads into December 2025 as one of the standout winners of this gold super‑cycle. The stock has surged about 64% in 2025, riding record bullion prices and a wave of sector consolidation — but also taking on big capital projects and higher costs. ^[1]

With fresh broker calls, AGM votes, and new valuation work landing in late November, investors now face a sharper question: at around A$27 a share, is Northern Star still a buy, or has most of the good news already been priced in?

Share price check: where Northern Star stands in early December 2025

Market data from the last trading day of November shows Northern Star closing at A$27.16 on 28 November 2025. Over the past month, the stock has traded between A$22.98 and A$27.92, with a 52‑week range of A$15.06 to A$27.92. ^[2]

According to recent technical summaries, the stock is:

Up roughly 64% in 2025 and near its all‑time highs ^[3]
One of the top‑performing large‑cap gold miners on the ASX this year ^[4]

In other words, anyone buying today is not early to the party. The share price already reflects a powerful rerating driven by both company‑specific moves and a historic move in the gold price.

Gold boom backdrop: record prices and sector consolidation

Northern Star’s 2025 story can’t be separated from the metal it digs out of the ground.

Spot gold has pushed to fresh all‑time highs in 2025, with one recent print around US$3,500–3,600/oz and equivalent Australian prices above A$5,300–6,000/oz, thanks to geopolitical tension, rate‑cut expectations and intense safe‑haven demand. ^[5]
Commentary from sector analysts suggests gold is on track for its best year since the late 1970s, with prices up around 40% in 2025. ^[6]
Central banks have been buying over 1,000 tonnes of gold annually for a third straight year, reinforcing structural demand. ^[7]

Within that macro environment, Northern Star has climbed into the ranks of the top 10 gold miners globally by output, producing 784,000 ounces in the first half of 2025, only slightly down on the prior year. ^[8]

High gold prices and scale are powerful tailwinds. The question is whether Northern Star’s execution and capital allocation are strong enough to translate that into sustainable free cash flow per share — not just headline ounces.

What Northern Star did in 2025: deals, projects and production

1. Transformational De Grey acquisition and the Hemi project

The defining strategic move of 2025 was Northern Star’s A$5 billion all‑share acquisition of De Grey Mining, completed on 6 May 2025. ^[9]

Key points:

De Grey shareholders received 0.119 NST shares per DEG share, implying roughly a 30% premium at announcement. ^[10]
The deal hands Northern Star the Hemi gold project in Western Australia’s Pilbara — widely regarded as one of the most significant new gold discoveries in the country. ^[11]
Industry estimates cited in the acquisition analysis suggest Hemi could ultimately deliver 300,000–500,000 ounces of gold per year once in full production. ^[12]
Integration analysis notes that Northern Star now controls around 15% of Western Australia’s gold output, cementing its status as a national heavyweight. ^[13]

Hemi is still a development asset. A typical timetable outlined in the deal commentary suggests 5–7 years from advanced studies through construction to full commercial production, with capex likely in the A$1.5–2.0 billion range. ^[14]

Northern Star’s November European roadshow emphasised that Hemi’s Ore Reserves and Mineral Resources are still being re‑worked under Northern Star’s ownership, with a formal statement promised by May 2026. ^[15]

2. FY25: record cash flow… and rising costs

Operationally, the company delivered a record financial year to June 2025, but not without friction.

From the June‑quarter operational update and July earnings call: ^[16]

FY25 gold sold: 1.634 million ounces
All‑in sustaining cost (AISC): ~A$2,163/oz for the year
Net mine cash flow: about A$1.19 billion
Cash and bullion: ~A$1.9 billion
Net cash position: ~A$1.0 billion

An earlier March‑quarter update told the other half of the story:

Near‑term operational issues at KCGM (Kalgoorlie) forced a cut to FY25 production guidance to 1.63–1.66Moz (from 1.65–1.80Moz).
FY25 AISC guidance was pushed up to A$2,100–2,200/oz from A$1,850–2,100/oz, driven by delayed access to high‑grade ore, higher maintenance costs and richer royalties from high gold prices. ^[17]

In short: the company hit its revised numbers and produced record free cash flow, but margins were squeezed by inflation, royalties and heavy growth capex.

3. FY26 guidance and the KCGM mill expansion

Northern Star is in the late stages of a multi‑year investment phase centred on the KCGM mill expansion in Kalgoorlie and growth projects across Yandal and Pogo.

The July 7, 2025 operational update laid out FY26 guidance: ^[18]

Gold sold:1.7–1.85Moz in FY26
AISC:A$2,300–2,700/oz, expected to improve through the year
KCGM output:550,000–600,000oz, as underground volumes hit ~3Mtpa and open‑pit productivity improves
Major growth capex includes:
- KCGM tailings facilities: A$180–220m in FY26, plus another similar tranche in FY27
- Additional processing and underground infrastructure at all three production centres

The September‑quarter 2025 report (Q1 FY26) showed: ^[19]

381,055oz gold sold at an elevated AISC of ~A$2,522/oz
Group revenue around A$1.7 billion
Cash and bullion: about A$1.51 billion
Net cash: ~A$616 million, even after ongoing project spend

Importantly, management reaffirmed FY26 guidance, signalling confidence that higher early‑year costs are transitional as projects are completed.

The November European roadshow deck reinforced Northern Star’s pitch: ^[20]

Around 22.3Moz of Ore Reserves and ~70Moz of Mineral Resources across the group
A 10+ year reserve‑backed production profile
A three‑centre structure (Kalgoorlie, Yandal, Pogo) aimed at improving capital efficiency and free cash‑flow generation once capex peaks and rolls off

4. Copper-gold optionality: the Alaska Range and PolarX

While gold remains the core, Northern Star has quietly added a copper‑gold growth option in the US.

In August, Northern Star expanded an earn‑in agreement with PolarX (ASX:PXX) over the Alaska Range project: ^[21]

Northern Star already owns about 14% of PolarX.
It can spend up to US$39 million to earn as much as 70% of the Alaska Range project.
Existing resources at Caribou Dome and Zackly total roughly 595 million pounds of copper, 213,000 ounces of gold, and 3.13 million ounces of silver.
A 2024 scoping study envisaged a 9.5‑year operation with US$147m capex, ~US$1.5bn revenue and ~US$825m life‑of‑mine EBITDA (using commodity prices below current spot). ^[22]

For Northern Star, this is option value rather than a core driver today — but it adds future diversification into copper at a time when many large miners are chasing the same theme.

5. Gold Fields sells out: a A$1.1 billion stake hits the market

In late September, South African major Gold Fields launched a block sale of its entire ~4.5% stake in Northern Star, inherited via its takeover of Gold Road Resources. ^[23]

Around 49.3 million Northern Star shares were auctioned with a floor price of A$21.85, a 2–3% discount to the prior close. ^[24]
The stake had appreciated from about A$891m to A$1.1bn thanks to Northern Star’s share price rally. ^[25]

The sale was not a vote on Northern Star’s fundamentals so much as a portfolio decision by Gold Fields — but it did create a temporary overhang and highlight how strongly NST has rerated alongside record gold prices.

6. AGM and executive incentives: governance snapshot

Northern Star’s 2025 AGM on 18 November saw shareholders: ^[26]

Approve the remuneration report with about 96.6% of votes in favour
Approve FY26 long‑term and short‑term performance rights for CEO Stuart Tonkin, but with more modest support:
- LTI performance rights: ~64.4% for / 35.6% against
- STI performance rights: ~68.8% for / 31.2% against
Re‑elect director Nick Cernotta with 97% support

A Simply Wall St review framed this as leadership continuity plus some shareholder tension around incentive size and performance hurdles, coming on the heels of the De Grey acquisition and strong FY25 results. ^[27]

Latest forecasts and valuation: what the models say in December 2025

Consensus broker price targets

Across mainstream data providers, Northern Star now looks close to consensus fair value:

Stockopedia reports a consensus 12‑month target of A$28.34, about 4.3% above the last close of A$27.16, with EPS for the next financial year forecast around A$1.50. ^[28]
Investing.com puts the average target at ~A$27.39, with a range of roughly A$13.7–35 and 12 Buy vs 2 Sell ratings, resulting in an overall “Buy” recommendation but essentially flat implied upside from current levels. ^[29]
A note summarised by IG highlights Macquarie’s upgraded target of A$27, up from A$24, after lifting FY25 and FY26 EPS estimates by 36% and 59% respectively on a bullish gold view. ^[30]
A late‑October report carried via Motley Fool says Bell Potter retains a A$30 target price on NST and expects further upside as gold prices and production scale feed through to earnings. ^[31]

In other words, traditional broker research clusters around A$27–30, implying low‑to‑mid single‑digit upside from current levels.

DCF / intrinsic value models

Valuation models tell a more scattered story:

A Simply Wall St fundamental model projects Northern Star reaching A$9.1bn in revenue and A$2.0bn in earnings by 2028, implying around 12.3% annual revenue growth from current levels. On that basis, they estimate a fair value of A$27.26, about 7% above the share price at the time of writing. ^[32]
Community fair value estimates on the same platform (13 submissions) range from A$13.56 to A$43.11, underlining how sensitive outcomes are to gold price, project timing and discount rates. ^[33]
AlphaSpread’s DCF work is more bullish, suggesting a base‑case intrinsic value of roughly A$39.13 per share, implying the stock is about 30% undervalued versus prices around A$27. ^[34]

The spread between “fair values” — from deep discount to rich premium — is itself a useful signal: this is a highly path‑dependent story, where small changes in gold assumptions or project timing can swing valuation outcomes dramatically.

Performance and technical context

Technical data for late November underline how far the stock has already run:

Closing price (28 Nov): A$27.16
30‑day trading range: A$22.98–27.92
52‑week range: A$15.06–27.92 ^[35]
Commentary from StocksDownUnder points out that Northern Star is up about 64% in 2025, and recently pulled back to around A$25.50 before bouncing — prompting the question of whether to “buy the dip” or wait for a better entry. ^[36]

Taken together, valuation work says:

Quant and DCF models: skew towards moderate undervaluation, especially if gold stays higher for longer. ^[37]
Sell‑side brokers: see limited but positive upside, mostly in the single‑digit to low‑teens % range from here. ^[38]

How analysts and commentators are framing the stock now

The latest wave of commentary into late November and 1 December 2025 strikes a more nuanced tone.

In The Bull’s 1 December “18 Share Tips”, John Athanasiou of Red Leaf Securities rates Northern Star a HOLD, praising its strong fundamentals, cash generation and project pipeline, but warning that:
- Major projects like the KCGM mill expansion and Hemi are capital‑intensive and carry execution risk
- Earnings remain highly sensitive to volatile gold prices
- Until there is more clarity on delivery and commodity stability, a hold stance is prudent. ^[39]
Macquarie, by contrast, remains constructive, arguing that higher gold prices and growing production justify higher EPS forecasts and a lifted target to A$27. ^[40]
A recent IG “Macro Intelligence: spotlight on gold” note flags that some gold majors, including Northern Star, look “materially overvalued” on certain metrics after the 2025 rally, even as brokers raise targets in response to gold’s strength. ^[41]
Simply Wall St’s November narrative focuses on fresh executive incentives and the De Grey deal, arguing that the Northern Star story is now mostly about successful execution at KCGM and Hemi and management’s ability to maintain discipline under rising cost pressure. ^[42]

In short, sentiment remains broadly positive, but the easy value phase appears to be over. Investors and analysts are now increasingly focused on project delivery, cost control and capital discipline, not just ounces and the spot gold price.

Investment case: bull vs bear arguments as of December 2025

Bull case highlights

Supporters of Northern Star in December 2025 typically point to:

Leverage to a powerful gold upcycle
Gold prices are near record highs, with many institutional forecasts — including a recent Goldman‑linked survey — expecting further gains into 2026. ^[43]
Scale and quality of assets
Northern Star is now a top‑10 global producer with a long‑life portfolio in tier‑one jurisdictions (Australia and Alaska) and a massive reserve and resource base. ^[44]
Strong balance sheet
The group holds over A$1.5bn in cash and bullion and remains in net cash despite heavy capex, leaving considerable flexibility for Hemi and other projects. ^[45]
Transition from capex to free cash flow
Company presentations emphasise that Northern Star is nearing the “free cash‑flow transition”, where KCGM expansion and other growth capital begin to drop away, allowing more cash to flow to dividends and buybacks. ^[46]
Hemi as a multi‑decade growth engine
The De Grey acquisition gives Northern Star a world‑class development project that could add hundreds of thousands of ounces per year in a low‑cost, long‑life operation. ^[47]
Copper exposure via Alaska Range
The PolarX earn‑in creates low‑risk optionality to copper and silver, commodities that may benefit from electrification and US supply‑security policies. ^[48]

Bear case and key risks

More cautious voices highlight a different set of issues:

Rising cost base
AISC stepped up from ~A$2,163/oz in FY25 to A$2,522/oz in the September quarter, with FY26 guidance of A$2,300–2,700/oz. ^[49]
Heavy capital commitments
KCGM’s mill expansion, tailings dams, Pogo development and future Hemi capex mean sustained high investment through at least FY27 and likely beyond. ^[50]
Execution risk
Hitting production and cost targets at KCGM, integrating De Grey, and delivering Hemi on time and budget are all non‑trivial tasks; any slip could erode the free‑cash‑flow story. ^[51]
Gold price sensitivity
With leveraged exposure to gold and a heavier cost structure, Northern Star’s earnings and valuation are very sensitive to any pullback in the gold price. ^[52]
Valuation after a huge run
After a ~64% rally this year, the stock trades near consensus targets, with only modest upside implied by most brokers, and some commentators now explicitly calling it expensive relative to peers. ^[53]
Share overhangs and governance optics
The Gold Fields selldown shows large blocks can still hit the market, while the AGM vote split on CEO performance rights highlights some shareholder unease about incentive structures in a boom period. ^[54]

Key catalysts to watch after 1 December 2025

Looking forward from the start of December, investors eye several major milestones:

December‑quarter FY26 production update – This will show whether elevated AISC is peaking and if guidance for 1.7–1.85Moz remains realistic. ^[55]
Progress on KCGM mill expansion – Any update on costs, timing or ramp‑up assumptions will feed directly into medium‑term cash‑flow models. ^[56]
Hemi resource / reserve statement (by May 2026) – This is the big one: a formal Northern Star‑style JORC statement for Hemi will crystallise just how much growth the acquisition has bought. ^[57]
Further gold price moves – With strategic surveys pointing to potential new highs into 2026, any sharp move in bullion — up or down — will quickly flow into broker models and sentiment on NST. ^[58]
Updates on PolarX’s Alaska Range drilling – Successful copper‑gold results would strengthen the diversification narrative. ^[59]

Bottom line: buy, hold or take profits?

As of 1 December 2025, the market seems to be landing on a nuanced verdict:

Most brokers:positive on the business, with targets in the high‑20s and some outliers at A$30+, but generally seeing only moderate upside from here. ^[60]
Quant / DCF models: often show larger theoretical upside, especially if gold stays near record levels and Hemi delivers at the upper end of expectations. ^[61]
Independent commentary (e.g. The Bull): leaning to “hold”, citing capital intensity, cost risks and gold price volatility as reasons not to chase the rally without clearer project delivery. ^[62]

For growth‑oriented investors who believe gold can remain elevated and who are comfortable with large‑scale project risk, Northern Star still looks like a high‑quality, leveraged way to play the theme with a strong balance sheet and a deep pipeline.

For more conservative or valuation‑driven investors, the risk‑reward trade‑off is less obvious after a 64% run, especially with AISC elevated and capex still climbing. Here, treating NST as a core hold rather than an aggressive new buy is a position many professionals are openly adopting.