XRP Price Today, December 1, 2025: 7% Drop Tests Key Support as ETFs, Stablecoin News and AI Models Clash on Forecasts

XRP is starting December on the back foot. After a strong year of fundamentals but choppy price action, the token has been hit by a fresh market-wide sell‑off, leaving traders watching a tight band of support just above $2 and debating whether December brings a relief rally or deeper correction.

XRP Price Today: Sharp Pullback as December Opens

As of December 1, 2025, XRP is trading around $2.0–$2.1, down roughly 6–7% over the past 24 hours. It slipped alongside the broader crypto market, with Bitcoin dropping to about $86k and Ethereum to roughly $2.8k, while total crypto market capitalization fell around 5% to just over $3 trillion. More than $600 million in crypto derivatives positions were liquidated in the move, mostly long bets. ^[1]

The decline comes after XRP spent much of late November consolidating in the low‑$2 range following a months‑long correction from its July all‑time high near $3.65. That new high capped what many analysts called Ripple’s “best year ever,” but XRP now trades slightly below its 2025 opening price of around $2.32, meaning the token is still negative year‑to‑date despite the big summer rally. ^[2]

Put simply: fundamentals have improved dramatically, but the price is still catching its breath.

Why XRP Is Falling Today: Security Incident + Macro Shock

Today’s drawdown isn’t just about XRP – it’s a broader risk‑off move across crypto.

1. DeFi exploit hits sentiment

A security incident at Yearn Finance’s yETH liquidity pool triggered fresh volatility to open the month. The exploit allowed an attacker to mint a large amount of yETH in a single transaction, draining roughly $9 million in assets and sending around 1,000 ETH through mixers, according to blockchain security firms. The event coincided with a wave of forced liquidations across crypto futures markets, including XRP. ^[3]

In that early Asian session, XRP, SOL and DOGE all fell more than 4%, reinforcing the view that altcoins remain highly sensitive to DeFi shocks and derivatives positioning. ^[4]

2. Macro pressure from Japan and the Fed

At the same time, macro forces are weighing on risk assets:

Japan’s 2‑year government bond yield briefly touched ~1.01%, the highest since 2008, as markets price in a possible Bank of Japan rate hike this month. ^[5]
Rising Japanese yields are unwinding the yen carry trade, historically a major source of cheap leverage flowing into crypto and other risk assets.
Traders are also watching the U.S. Federal Reserve’s December meeting, with shifting expectations for rate cuts and quantitative tightening shaping liquidity conditions. ^[6]

As liquidity shrinks and leveraged longs get flushed, XRP is behaving more like a high‑beta macro asset than a self‑contained story.

Technical Picture: XRP Balances on a Narrow Ledge

Today’s move has pushed XRP into a cluster of critical technical levels that most short‑term analyses are focused on.

Key support zones

$2.00–$2.05:
Multiple market updates put XRP’s intraday low near this zone, which has repeatedly acted as a short‑term pivot over the past two months. ^[7]
$1.90–$1.95 (“line in the sand”):
Several analysts – and even AI models – see this area as the major accumulation and support region that has repeatedly halted deeper sell‑offs in recent months. ^[8]
21‑month EMA around $1.91:
Market technician Egrag Crypto highlighted XRP’s 21‑month exponential moving average (EMA) at roughly $1.907 as a key long‑term level. In his view, a monthly close below this EMA would signal an “intense capitulation” scenario, potentially opening downside toward $1.55. ^[9]
$1.80:
Multiple reports point to $1.80 as the lower boundary of the recent corrective structure – and as the target in several bearish scenarios if current support zones fail. ^[10]

Resistance and breakout levels

On the upside, technical analyses converge around a tight band of resistance:

$2.30–$2.31:
Near‑term resistance that XRP needs to reclaim to confirm a clean bounce from late‑November lows, according to BeInCrypto’s December outlook. ^[11]
$2.445–$2.46:
On‑chain data shows a dense cost‑basis cluster around $2.445–$2.460, representing roughly 1.7 billion XRP in realized supply. This zone has repeatedly acted as a ceiling, and breaking above it is seen as critical for any sustained uptrend. ^[12]
$2.60–$2.61:
BeInCrypto’s analysis, echoed by several independent technicians, identifies $2.60–$2.61 as the first “real” bullish confirmation zone. It lines up with Fibonacci retracement levels, cost‑basis clusters, and ETF‑driven targets. ^[13]

In short: $1.90–$2.00 is the floor traders are terrified of losing, while $2.45–$2.60 is the ceiling that needs to break for the bull case to gain traction.

What AI and Quant Models Are Predicting for XRP in December

December 2025 might be the first month where AI models are as loud as human analysts in shaping XRP narratives. Their predictions are all over the map.

1. ChatGPT and “conservative” Wall Street targets (~$2–$3)

A Finbold report using OpenAI’s ChatGPT model projects XRP at about $2.02 on December 1, 2025, with a range between $1.85 and $2.15, assuming the current bearish but stabilizing trend continues. ^[14]
The model emphasises the $1.90 support zone and notes that XRP remains below its 50‑ and 200‑day moving averages, making sideways or slightly higher price action its “base case.” ^[15]
A separate Yahoo Finance piece contrasts ChatGPT’s cautious $2.02 December target with traditional analyst forecasts closer to $2.85, arguing that AI is under‑weighting ETF momentum and macro upside. ^[16]

2. “Three AIs” panel: modest December upside, limited fireworks

CryptoPotato asked three different AI systems (including ChatGPT, Perplexity and Grok) for their December view on XRP: ^[17]

ChatGPT
- Sees XRP as “fragile but stabilizing” after losing momentum in Q4.
- Bull case: climb toward $2.85 if ETF inflows remain strong and the broader market recovers.
- Bear case: another slip below $2.00 with a potential December bottom near $1.80.
Perplexity
- More optimistic, suggesting a bull scenario up to $3.00–$3.40 if conditions turn risk‑on.
- Even its downside case doesn’t see a sustained break below $2.00.
Grok
- Focuses heavily on macro risk: Fed policy, geopolitical tensions and whale behaviour.
- Warns that if macro deteriorates, XRP could revisit $1.80 again.

All three broadly agree on one thing: they don’t expect a parabolic move this month. Most scenarios cluster around ±5–20% from current levels rather than explosive price discovery.

3. Chinese KIMI AI: $2.05 bear, $10 bull

CryptoNews highlighted a new Chinese ChatGPT‑style model, KIMI AI, which gives dramatically wider scenarios: ^[18]

Bearish case for December: XRP drifts down toward $2.05 by Christmas – essentially a mild continuation of the current pullback.
Bullish case: XRP surges as high as $10, driven by ETF adoption, regulatory clarity and new partnerships.

KIMI explicitly ties its optimistic path to:

The SEC’s approval of multiple spot XRP ETFs;
Ongoing regulatory clarity after the SEC lawsuit;
The idea that strong institutional inflows might push XRP to double‑digit pricing by 2026.

That said, even the article presenting KIMI’s view stresses that this is highly speculative and that December could still be “unusually turbulent.”

4. Algorithmic projections: slow grind higher

A fresh Changelly update shows XRP at roughly $2.20 with sentiment labelled “bearish” (89% on their internal gauge) and a Fear & Greed Index reading of 28 (Fear), echoing the risk‑off mood. ^[19]

Their short‑term model for December projects:

Near‑term prices mostly between $2.13 and $2.23 during the first half of the month.
A potential grind toward $2.30–$2.47 around December 18–23, implying a mid‑teens percentage rebound from today’s lows if the market stabilizes. ^[20]

These algorithmic forecasts are more muted than AI mega‑bull scenarios, but broadly match the “short rally inside a bigger range” view shared by many human analysts.

Fundamentals: ETFs, Stablecoins and Regulatory Wins Still Tilt Long‑Term Bullish

While the daily chart looks uncomfortable, XRP’s fundamental story in 2025 is arguably the strongest it has ever been.

1. SEC lawsuit finally ends

After nearly five years of legal limbo, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission formally ended its lawsuit against Ripple in August 2025. Ripple agreed to pay a $125 million civil penalty, and both sides dropped their appeals, closing the case. ^[21]

Key takeaways from the final legal outcome:

Courts had already ruled that XRP is not a security when traded on public exchanges (programmatic sales), a huge win for secondary‑market liquidity. ^[22]
Institutional sales by Ripple did violate securities laws, which is why the penalty was imposed – but the fine was far lower than the nearly $2 billion originally sought by the SEC. ^[23]

This legal clarity removed one of the biggest overhangs on XRP and paved the way for ETF approvals and new institutional partnerships.

2. Spot XRP ETFs and institutional flows

The post‑settlement environment has already delivered a wave of spot XRP ETF activity:

Canary Capital’s XRPC ETF, launched in mid‑November, set the record for highest first‑day trading volume of any U.S. ETF in 2025 and, according to both company statements and independent coverage, now manages more assets than all other U.S. spot XRP ETFs combined. ^[24]
CryptoPotato reports that four U.S. spot XRP ETFs together have attracted more than $660 million in net inflows in just a few weeks, even as XRP’s spot price trended lower. ^[25]

Analysts interviewed by BeInCrypto and other outlets say these flows are a key reason XRP has held above the $1.80–$1.90 support zone despite heavy volatility and macro headwinds. ^[26]

3. RLUSD stablecoin goes global

Ripple’s dollar‑pegged stablecoin RLUSD is rapidly becoming a major pillar of the ecosystem:

RLUSD has just been designated an “Accepted Fiat‑Referenced Token” by Abu Dhabi’s ADGM, allowing licensed firms in the UAE’s key regulatory hub to use it in regulated financial activities. ^[27]
The token now has a circulating supply above $1.2 billion, placing it around the 10th‑largest stablecoin by market cap and making it attractive to banks and payment firms that want clear reserve rules and redemption rights. ^[28]
RLUSD is already being integrated by several regional banks and payment providers as a settlement asset inside Ripple’s cross‑border payment stack. ^[29]

In parallel, Ripple just secured expanded approval from Singapore’s Monetary Authority (MAS) to offer end‑to‑end, fully licensed payment services under its Major Payment Institution licence – another big step in cementing its presence in Asia. ^[30]

4. Hidden Road acquisition and the institutional “stack”

Ripple is also building a powerful institutional pipeline around XRP:

In April 2025, Ripple announced it would acquire prime broker Hidden Road for about $1.25 billion, making Ripple the first crypto company to own a global, multi‑asset prime broker. ^[31]
Hidden Road clears roughly $3 trillion in trading volume annually for over 300 institutional clients, offering services such as securities lending, collateral management and trade execution. ^[32]
Ripple has since rebranded the platform as Ripple Prime, explicitly positioning it to connect traditional finance with XRP Ledger settlement and RLUSD. ^[33]

Add to that a series of acquisitions – including GTreasury and Rail, as reported by CryptoPotato – plus a planned SPAC‑backed digital asset treasury (DAT) vehicle focused on accumulating XRP, and you have a company very deliberately building institutional rails around its token. ^[34]

From a fundamentals perspective, that’s the guts of many bullish long‑term theses, even if the chart doesn’t reflect it yet.

December Scenarios: How Analysts Are Framing XRP’s Next Moves

Pull all of today’s analysis together and three broad December scenarios emerge. None are guaranteed, but they outline how traders are thinking about risk.

1. Bearish / breakdown scenario (retest $1.80 or lower)

Drivers:

Continued macro stress (BoJ tightening, weak risk sentiment, disappointing Fed signals). ^[35]
ETF inflows slow or reverse, removing a key source of structural demand. ^[36]
Long‑term holders continue to sell into every bounce, as on‑chain HODL wave data currently suggests. ^[37]

Targets and levels:

A decisive move below $2.00 triggers a test of the $1.90 support zone and the 21‑month EMA around $1.907. ^[38]
A monthly close below that EMA would validate the “capitulation” scenario discussed by Egrag Crypto, opening room for $1.55 in the medium term. ^[39]
KIMI AI’s bear case of ~$2.05 by Christmas effectively mirrors this scenario but with a shallower decline. ^[40]

2. Base case / range‑bound recovery ($2.10–$2.60)

This is where most human and AI models cluster:

AI forecasts from ChatGPT, Perplexity, and Changelly’s quant models all see modest upside or sideways action, typically between $2.10 and $2.60 for December. ^[41]
Technical analyses from BeInCrypto and TheCryptoBasic highlight a double‑bottom structure near $1.77, with today’s price hovering just above that second bounce. As long as $2.00–$2.10 holds on a closing basis, a retest of $2.30 then $2.45–$2.60 remains plausible. ^[42]
Changelly’s near‑term table explicitly projects a move toward $2.30–$2.47 in late December, which would equate to a mid‑teens rebound from current levels. ^[43]

In this scenario, December looks like a digestion month – unstable, but ultimately constructive if ETFs keep attracting inflows and macro doesn’t deteriorate further.

3. Bullish breakout scenario (toward $2.60–$3.40, outlier: $10+)

This is the least likely in the short term but the most talked‑about.

Closer‑in “realistic” bull case:

BeInCrypto frames $2.60–$2.61 as the first real bullish validation, aligned with both Fibonacci and on‑chain cost‑basis clusters. A daily close above $2.459 followed by acceptance above $2.60 would signal a new leg higher, with potential to revisit or exceed $3.00 in the coming months. ^[44]
Egrag Crypto’s “super‑bullish” map has XRP closing above $3.40, re‑testing the January high and opening the way for “unprecedented prices” further out. ^[45]

Extreme outliers:

KIMI AI’s $10 December target and public comments from some high‑profile industry figures talking about XRP “someday” reaching triple‑digit or even $1,000 prices fall firmly into outlier territory – interesting for narrative, but not grounded in any near‑term technical or macro structure. ^[46]

In practice, analysts stress that sustained ETF inflows and broad risk‑on liquidity would be needed to fuel even the modest version of this bull case, and that altcoins remain tightly correlated to Bitcoin’s path for now. ^[47]

What This Means for Traders and Long‑Term Holders

For anyone following XRP into December, the key themes are:

Macro matters
XRP is trading like a macro asset: BoJ policy, Fed expectations and global liquidity are driving daily swings as much as anything Ripple‑specific. ^[48]
The legal and regulatory overhang has cleared
The SEC settlement and subsequent ETF approvals have materially improved XRP’s structural outlook, even if the short‑term chart doesn’t show it yet. ^[49]
ETF and stablecoin infrastructure is real – but needs time
RLUSD adoption, Ripple Prime’s institutional push, and the growth of XRPC and other ETFs collectively create new, durable demand channels, but they are unlikely to erase volatility overnight. ^[50]
Short‑term tone: cautious, not hopeless
With fear gauges elevated, technical momentum negative, and macro uncertain, most reputable analyses lean toward cautious range‑bound expectations, not imminent collapse or moonshots. ^[51]

Risk Disclaimer

This article is for information and news purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, trading advice, or any other kind of financial recommendation. Cryptocurrencies, including XRP, are highly volatile assets. You can lose all of the capital you invest. Always do your own research, consider your risk tolerance, and, if needed, consult a licensed financial professional before making investment decisions.