As Wall Street kicks off the final month of 2025, US stock futures are pointing lower, global data is flashing mixed signals, and investors are bracing for a big week of economic releases and Federal Reserve messaging. Here’s what you need to know before the US markets open on Monday, December 1, 2025.
1. Futures signal a weak start after a strong Thanksgiving week
US equity futures are in the red this morning, suggesting a softer open after a powerful rally into the end of November.
- Dow futures are down roughly 0.4%.
- S&P 500 futures are lower by around 0.5%.
- Nasdaq 100 futures are off about 0.6–0.7%, leading the decline as investors trim risk in high‑growth tech. [1]
This pullback comes after a holiday‑shortened week that delivered some of the best Thanksgiving‑week gains since 2008, fueled by renewed rate‑cut hopes and a broad risk‑on mood. [2]
Big picture, the S&P 500 is still up around the mid‑teens percentage year‑to‑date in 2025, depending on whether you look at price or total return – roughly 16–18% by most estimates. [3] Tech and AI‑linked names continue to be the main engines of that performance.
What it means: Today’s early weakness looks more like profit‑taking and positioning at the start of a data‑heavy month than a clear trend reversal – but the tone of incoming data (and the Fed) could quickly change that narrative.
2. Global risk-off mood: Asia and Europe hand off mixed signals
Overnight moves outside the US are setting a cautious tone:
- In Asia, stocks were mixed. Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell about 1.9% as weaker‑than‑expected corporate investment and ongoing manufacturing contraction weighed on sentiment. [4]
- China’s factory activity remained in contraction for an eighth straight month, underscoring lingering growth headwinds despite a tentative trade truce with the US. [5]
- Hong Kong’s Hang Seng managed modest gains, while other regional markets like Seoul, Sydney and Mumbaislipped. [6]
Fresh PMI data emphasize the patchy global backdrop:
- Japan’s manufacturing PMI for November stayed below 50 (contraction territory) for a fifth month, though the pace of decline slowed slightly. [7]
- India’s manufacturing PMI cooled to a nine‑month low as new export orders softened, hurt in part by recently imposed US tariffs that dented demand. [8]
In Europe, equity futures are lower and cash markets have opened on the back foot, with a “risk‑off” tilt after what one desk called a “blue‑ribbon week” of gains. Financials and rate‑sensitive sectors like real estate are under pressure, mirroring declines in US futures. [9]
Why it matters: A synchronized soft patch in global manufacturing — from Asia’s factories to US ISM data later today — heightens concerns that growth momentum is fading just as markets are priced for a soft‑landing and aggressive rate cuts.
3. Today’s key US data: Manufacturing and construction in focus
The first trading day of December brings a busy US economic calendar, with markets laser‑focused on fresh readings from the industrial and construction sectors:
- 9:45 a.m. ET – S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI (final, November)
- 10:00 a.m. ET – ISM Manufacturing Index (November)
- 10:00 a.m. ET – Construction Spending (October) [10]
The ISM Manufacturing PMI is the marquee release. The index has been stuck below 50 – the threshold between expansion and contraction – for months. October’s reading came in at 48.7, signaling mild contraction in factory activity. [11]
Economists expect November’s ISM to edge higher but stay below 50, implying that manufacturing remains a drag rather than a growth engine, even if the worst of the downturn is past. The S&P Global survey, released just before ISM, will give an early hint as to whether conditions are stabilizing.
Meanwhile, construction spending data will offer a look at how interest‑sensitive sectors like commercial building and residential projects are coping with higher borrowing costs. [12]
Why it matters for markets today:
- A stronger‑than‑expected ISM (closer to or above 50) could challenge aggressive rate‑cut pricing, potentially lifting Treasury yields and weighing on growth stocks.
- A weaker ISM would reinforce the slowdown narrative and could support rate‑cut bets, helping rate‑sensitive sectors but raising recession worries.
- Construction data will be watched as a proxy for real‑economy resilience, especially given high mortgage rates and tighter credit conditions.
4. Fed watch: Powell speaks tonight as rate-cut odds climb
Even though today’s trading session will be driven by data, the Federal Reserve remains the main character in December’s story.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak this evening at 8:00 p.m. ET at the Hoover Institution’s Shultz Lecture Series, with remarks expected to cover the economic outlook, inflation and policy. [13]
Derivatives markets are currently pricing in roughly an 80–90% probability of a rate cut at the Fed’s December meeting, according to estimates cited by market strategists. [14] Powell’s tone tonight — especially on:
- how quickly inflation is converging toward target,
- the planned end of quantitative tightening (QT), and
- the balance of risks between growth and inflation,
could either cement those expectations or prompt a hawkish reassessment. [15]
What traders will listen for:
- Any pushback against aggressive rate‑cut odds.
- Hints about how the Fed is reading softer labor and spending data. [16]
- Clarity on the timing and pace of QT’s end, which has implications for liquidity, bond yields and equity valuations.
5. Crypto and commodities: Bitcoin slides, oil pops higher
Risk appetite is also being tested in crypto and commodities:
- Bitcoin is down about 4–5%, trading just below $87,000, with other major tokens following it lower. [17]
- Analysts point to a combination of profit‑taking, regulatory overhang and nerves ahead of US data and Powell’s speech as drivers behind the drop. [18]
On the commodity side:
- Oil prices are up more than $1 a barrel in early Monday trade as traders react to supply headlines and the broader macro backdrop. [19]
For equities, the message is twofold:
- Crypto weakness is a classic sign of investors dialing back on the riskiest corners of the market.
- Rising oil can add a layer of inflation concern if gains are sustained, potentially complicating the rate‑cut narrative.
6. Early stock movers: small caps jump, watchlist stocks in play
Premarket screens are lighting up with volatile small‑cap movers, many of them driven by company‑specific news:
- Vision Marine Technologies (VMAR) is up by double digits after reporting its fiscal‑year results and highlighting revenue contributions and strategic expansion following its Nautical Ventures acquisition. [20]
- WeBuy Global (WBUY) and Direct Digital Holdings (DRCT) are among the biggest gainers, soaring on momentum and deal headlines. [21]
- INVO Fertility (IVF) is higher after announcing plans to acquire Family Beginnings Clinic, while New Fortress Energy (NFE) is rising despite warning it may need further restructuring if strategic alternatives fall short. [22]
- On the losers side, SMX (Security Matters) and Springview Holdings (SPHL) are giving back some of last week’s outsized gains and reacting to corporate actions like reverse splits. [23]
Beyond the small caps, Wall Street remains laser‑focused on the mega‑cap AI complex — think Nvidia, Microsoft and Apple — which continue to dominate index‑level performance and feature prominently in year‑end “top picks” lists from big banks and brokers. [24]
Individual pre‑bell narratives to watch today include:
- TJX Companies, which some analysts highlight as trading near record highs on resilient off‑price demand and defensive characteristics. TS2 Tech
- Zscaler (ZS), where investors are debating whether a sharp post‑earnings sell‑off has gone too far, setting up a potential rebound if sentiment turns. TS2 Tech
Takeaway for traders: Liquidity can be thin in premarket trade, especially in small caps. Moves can be exaggerated — useful for short‑term set‑ups, but risky if you’re chasing headlines without a plan.
7. December playbook: valuations, AI and strategist targets
Heading into December, investors are trying to balance strong year‑to‑date returns with lingering unease about valuations and the durability of the AI‑driven rally.
A few themes shaping the broader outlook:
- The S&P 500’s 2025 total return is approaching 18%, powered heavily by mega‑cap tech. [25]
- Market strategists at major banks remain surprisingly bullish further out.
- At the same time, commentators warn that equities are trading at elevated multiples, with a large share of gains concentrated in a handful of AI‑linked names. [28]
For today and this week, the key questions for investors are:
- Does incoming data confirm a soft landing?
- If manufacturing and later‑week employment/service data show moderate cooling, they bolster the “gentle slowdown plus rate cuts” narrative. [29]
- Does the Fed validate current rate‑cut pricing?
- Any hint that cuts could be delayed or shallower than expected may pressure high‑growth and richly valued stocks.
- Will market leadership broaden?
- Some strategists argue that for the rally to extend into 2026, gains need to spread beyond a narrow AI cohort into cyclicals, financials and small caps. [30]
Quick checklist before the bell
For a fast pre‑open rundown, here are the key things to watch today:
- Index futures: Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 all pointing lower by about 0.4–0.7% in early trade. [31]
- Global mood: Mixed Asia, softer Europe, and weaker global PMIs keep risk appetite in check. [32]
- Data calendar:
- 9:45 a.m. ET – S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI (final)
- 10:00 a.m. ET – ISM Manufacturing Index (November)
- 10:00 a.m. ET – Construction Spending (October) [33]
- Fed: Powell’s 8:00 p.m. ET speech could reshape expectations for the December meeting and 2026 rate path. [34]
- Crypto & oil: Bitcoin down around 5%, oil up more than $1 a barrel — a risk‑off but inflation‑watch mix. [35]
- Premarket movers: Vision Marine, WeBuy Global, Direct Digital, INVO Fertility and others posting big percentage moves on company‑specific news. [36]
Important: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendation or an offer to buy or sell any security. Always do your own research or consult a licensed financial professional before making investment decisions.
References
1. www.tipranks.com, 2. www.marketwatch.com, 3. www.slickcharts.com, 4. apnews.com, 5. apnews.com, 6. apnews.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.tradingview.com, 10. fred.stlouisfed.org, 11. www.investing.com, 12. fred.stlouisfed.org, 13. www.financialexpress.com, 14. www.mexc.com, 15. finance.yahoo.com, 16. www.bbh.com, 17. apnews.com, 18. www.bloomberg.com, 19. apnews.com, 20. www.benzinga.com, 21. www.benzinga.com, 22. www.benzinga.com, 23. www.benzinga.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.slickcharts.com, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. seekingalpha.com, 29. www.bbh.com, 30. www.barrons.com, 31. www.tipranks.com, 32. apnews.com, 33. fred.stlouisfed.org, 34. www.financialexpress.com, 35. apnews.com, 36. www.benzinga.com
