Ethereum’s price is under heavy pressure on December 1, 2025, trading around $2,820 after a sharp overnight sell‑off that shook the entire crypto market. Over the last 24 hours, ETH has dropped roughly 6%, with the broader crypto market losing more than 5% of its value and seeing over $600 million in leveraged positions liquidated. [1]
At the same time, the network is days away from Fusaka, Ethereum’s next major upgrade, scheduled to go live on December 3, 2025, keeping long‑term sentiment far more optimistic than today’s price action might suggest. [2]
Quick Snapshot: Ethereum Price on 1 December 2025
- ETH price today: around $2,820
- 24h change: approximately ‑6%, underperforming Bitcoin’s ~‑5% drop [3]
- Intraday range: high near $3,050, low just above $2,800, according to market data. [4]
- 30‑day performance: down about 27% over the past month. [5]
- Drawdown from cycle high: more than 40% below the August peak, where ETH reached new all‑time highs before rolling over. [6]
This combination of a deep monthly pullback, a violent daily move, and a looming network upgrade has made Ethereum the center of attention for traders, analysts and long‑term investors alike.
Why Did Ethereum Drop? Today’s Main Drivers
Fresh analysis published on December 1 points to a cluster of structural and psychological shocks rather than a single cause.
1. Market‑wide risk‑off and macro jitters
A broad flush hit crypto overnight:
- Global crypto market capitalization dropped by about 5.2% to just above $3 trillion.
- 96 of the top 100 coins fell in the last 24 hours.
- ETH slid ~6% to about $2,823, while BTC dropped ~5.3% to the mid‑$80,000s. [7]
Analysts tie the move to rising macro uncertainty:
- Investors are watching upcoming U.S. economic data and Federal Reserve communication to determine whether this is a sharp correction or the start of a longer downtrend. [8]
- At the same time, markets are reacting to a potential December rate hike from the Bank of Japan, which has sent Japanese government bond yields to their highest levels since 2008 and triggered concerns about a global liquidity squeeze. [9]
If major central banks tighten more aggressively than expected, risk assets—including crypto—tend to suffer as leveraged trades unwind.
2. Yearn Finance exploit and a wave of leveraged liquidations
A detailed breakdown from 99Bitcoins links today’s slide to a DeFi exploit and aggressive derivatives positioning: [10]
- A Yearn Finance exploit acted as the immediate spark, hitting sentiment at a time when crypto leverage was already stretched.
- As news spread, ETH futures were aggressively unwound, contributing to more than $600 million in total crypto liquidations, with about $154 million tied to Ethereum positions alone. [11]
- Highly leveraged traders, including well‑known “whales,” saw large parts of their positions forcibly closed as prices cascaded lower. [12]
This kind of forced deleveraging often overshoots fair value in the short term, but it can also reset the market by flushing out excessive risk.
3. An old ICO whale wakes up
On‑chain data this morning also highlighted a 2015 ICO wallet that had been dormant for a decade:
- The address moved 40,000 ETH that were originally bought for about $12,400 at roughly $0.31 per ETH, now worth around $120 million. [13]
- Blockchain sleuths note that the transfer appears to be internal, not a deposit to an exchange, so there is no clear evidence of an imminent selloff. [14]
Historically, these “ancient whale” movements tend to spook retail traders and dominate headlines, but they rarely translate into immediate spot selling. In this case, they mostly added to the sense of unease during an already tense session.
4. ETF outflows: $1.4 billion pulled in November
Spot Ethereum ETFs, launched earlier this year to much fanfare, have just recorded their worst month on record:
- US‑listed spot ETH ETFs saw roughly $1.4–1.42 billion in net outflows in November. [15]
- Outflows were concentrated in major products such as BlackRock’s iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA) and Fidelity’s Ethereum Fund (FETH). [16]
These redemptions have likely added steady sell pressure throughout the month as issuers rebalance their holdings, even though there have been brief inflow days—for example, a reported $104 million net inflow into Ethereum ETFs on November 26 and a week with roughly $312 million of net inflows more recently. [17]
The picture: November was net negative for ETH ETF flows, but not uniformly bearish every day.
5. Sentiment shock plus structural fragility
Commentators emphasise that Ethereum’s fundamentals have not dramatically changed in the past week—staking remains robust, Layer‑2 activity is high, and the Fusaka upgrade is imminent—but market structure clearly was fragile:
- Spot volume has thinned out across major exchanges.
- Funding rates and open interest metrics still show a tilt toward leverage, even after the selloff. [18]
That combination—thin liquidity, heavy leverage, and scary headlines—sets the stage for oversized price moves in both directions.
Technical Picture: Is $2,800 the Line in the Sand?
Today’s price action brings Ethereum into what several analysts describe as a make‑or‑break zone.
Key support: $2,800 and the “cost‑basis wall”
BeInCrypto’s latest technical analysis notes: [19]
- ETH has fallen more than 6% in 24 hours and is down roughly 27% over the last 30 days.
- Price has broken down from a bear‑flag pattern, opening a measured downside target near $2,140—about 28% below the breakdown level.
- On‑chain cost‑basis data shows a concentrated band of support between $2,801 and $2,823, where over 3.5 million ETH were accumulated.
If Ethereum fails to reclaim the $2,840 area soon and continues to close below $2,800, the analysis warns that sellers remain firmly in control, with a possible cascade through support levels at $2,690, $2,560, $2,440, $2,260, and ultimately $2,140.
CCN: Range midpoint now under siege
A separate December 1 piece on CCN frames $2,800 as the midpoint of a long‑term horizontal range between $1,500 and $4,000: [20]
- Ethereum is now down roughly 43% from its August all‑time high, having briefly dipped to $2,623 before bouncing.
- The current price sits at the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the multi‑month uptrend.
- If $2,800 breaks decisively on a weekly closing basis, the charts point to potential downside toward the $1,500 range low, effectively completing the rotation across the entire range.
In this view, bulls are making a last stand at $2,800. A sustained hold keeps the long‑term structure intact; a failure could extend the bear phase significantly.
Short‑term levels to reclaim
Across multiple analyses, similar reclaim levels keep appearing:
- $2,840 – reclaiming this would put ETH back above its strongest recent cost‑basis wall. [21]
- $2,990–$3,090 – a cluster of resistance that must be broken to weaken the current bear flag structure. [22]
- $3,240–$3,500 – if bulls retake this region, several bearish patterns are effectively invalidated, opening the door to a more constructive December rally. [23]
For now, ETH trades below all of these thresholds.
December 2025 Price Forecasts: Wide Range, High Uncertainty
Even as the price breaks down, forecasting models and analysts are publishing dramatically different scenarios for how December could unfold.
AI models: Missed the mark, but reasons still matter
On November 29, Finbold reported that an AI model (based on ChatGPT) expected Ethereum to: [24]
- Hold above the $3,000 support on December 1.
- Trade around $3,360, within an estimated range of $3,300–$3,420.
The logic behind the forecast is still instructive:
- Exchange reserves were near multi‑year lows, suggesting less immediate sell pressure.
- Staking and DeFi / Layer‑2 activity continued to reduce effective circulating supply.
- Market sentiment looked cautiously optimistic heading into the Fusaka upgrade.
Reality has diverged from the exact price call—the market overshot to the downside—but those structural factors may still underpin any eventual rebound once the current shakeout passes.
Pintu: Fusaka as a pivot between $2,800 and $3,400
Indonesian exchange Pintu published a same‑day analysis titled “Ethereum Price Plunges to $2,800 Today: Can Fusaka Upgrade Push ETH to $3,400?”: [25]
- If ETH holds above $3,000 after the upgrade, analysts there see room for a move toward $3,400.
- If it fails to sustain $3,000, the price could revisit $2,800—precisely where it sits now.
A second Pintu article, referencing research from CoinGape, notes that some forecasters still see $4,200 by the end of 2025 as a feasible upside scenario if Ethereum regains momentum. [26]
Quant models: Modest bounce, not a moonshot
Algorithmic forecasts from CoinCodex suggest a more modest near‑term path:
- Their latest model projects ETH could recover about 10% to trade near $3,100–$3,150 in the first week of December, assuming support holds and macro conditions don’t deteriorate further. [27]
This is essentially a “dead‑cat bounce vs. true bottom” scenario: a respectable short‑term rally that still leaves ETH well below recent highs.
Extremely bullish cycle views: $9,000 in December?
On the more aggressive end, a long‑form forecast from CryptoDnes lays out a highly optimistic cycle thesis: [28]
- Their base table sees Ethereum averaging around $4,899 in 2025, with a maximum near $5,956.
- In a strong repetition of past four‑year cycles, they argue ETH could approach $9,000 in December 2025 if macro conditions and adoption line up similarly to previous bull peaks.
These projections depend on Ethereum sustaining and extending a powerful bull run, and they assume that today’s correction is a larger‑cycle buying opportunity rather than the early stage of a longer bear market. They should be treated as high‑risk scenarios, not baselines.
The Fusaka Upgrade: Why It Matters So Much for ETH Price
Despite today’s painful candles, one of the biggest stories of the week is Ethereum’s Fusaka upgrade, which is now just days away.
Timing and structure
According to the Ethereum Foundation and multiple ecosystem partners: [29]
- Mainnet activation:
- Scheduled for 3 December 2025 at 21:49:11 UTC, at slot 13,164,544.
- Follow‑up “Blob Parameter Only” forks (BPO):
- BPO1: December 9, 2025
- BPO2: January 7, 2026
Unlike prior upgrades, Fusaka unfolds as three sequential events, gradually increasing data throughput while letting tooling and infrastructure adapt.
What Fusaka actually changes
Core technical improvements include:
- Massive gas‑limit increase – from about 45 million to 150 million gas per block, dramatically raising how much data and transaction activity each block can carry. [30]
- Peer Data Availability Sampling (PeerDAS) – validators can verify samples of data instead of downloading entire blobs, keeping node requirements manageable even as capacity jumps. [31]
- Verkle trees – a more compact way to store and prove Ethereum’s state, enabling smaller proofs and more efficient nodes. [32]
- Higher blob throughput and fee‑burn tweaks – additional blob‑capacity upgrades (BPO1 and BPO2) and fee mechanisms designed to stabilise costs while strengthening long‑term ETH value alignment. [33]
Collectively, these changes aim to support 100,000+ transactions per second via Layer‑2 rollups, while preserving Ethereum’s decentralisation and security model. [34]
Market expectations around Fusaka
A range of reports—from SwissBorg, CCN and infrastructure monitors like Metrika—argue that Fusaka is less about short‑term price spikes and more about cementing Ethereum’s role as the base layer for rollups, tokenization and DeFi. [35]
Geekstake’s latest market recap, for example, notes that: [36]
- ETF outflows have created short‑term price pressure, but
- On‑chain and developer activity remain solid, with validators, dev teams and infrastructure providers actively preparing for the upgrade.
In other words: today’s price pain hasn’t stopped the “builders’ market” that often sets the stage for the next cycle.
Long‑Term Ethereum Outlook: Between Caution and Conviction
Even with today’s crash, many research desks and exchanges keep a constructive multi‑year view, while acknowledging huge uncertainty.
Bullish structural themes
Across CryptoDnes, CoinDCX and other analyses, several recurring bullish drivers stand out: [37]
- Network dominance: Ethereum still leads in DeFi, NFTs and real‑world‑asset tokenization, with tokenized assets on Ethereum estimated in the double‑digit billions of dollars.
- Developer activity: 2025 has seen a strong influx of new developers to Ethereum, underpinning continued innovation and app growth.
- Institutional adoption: Spot ETFs, tokenization funds (such as BlackRock’s on‑chain products) and corporate staking flows have turned ETH into a core holding for many institutions.
- Roadmap execution: From The Merge to Shanghai, Dencun, Pectra, and now Fusaka, Ethereum has a credible track record of shipping complex upgrades that enhance scalability and security. [38]
Some long‑term tables project Ethereum averaging between $3,800–$4,900 in 2025, with gradually higher ranges through 2030 if adoption keeps growing. [39]
Bearish risks and reasons for caution
On the other side, today’s breakdown has highlighted key risks:
- Technical vulnerability: As BeInCrypto and CCN both emphasise, a decisive loss of $2,800 could open the door to $2,260–$2,140, and in more aggressive bearish scenarios, even toward $1,500. [40]
- Regulatory overhang: While ETF approvals have brought legitimacy, debates around staking, security classifications and DeFi regulation are still far from settled. [41]
- Competition: Rival Layer‑1s like Solana continue to push hard on throughput and user experience, even as Ethereum leans into rollup‑centric scaling. [42]
- Macro shocks: Events like a potential Bank of Japan rate hike and continued U.S. tightening could keep pressure on all risk assets, crypto included. [43]
Taken together, the long‑term thesis for Ethereum remains fundamentally strong but far from risk‑free.
What to Watch Next
For traders and longer‑horizon investors following ETH over the coming days and weeks, several key catalysts stand out:
- Fusaka mainnet activation – December 3, 2025
- Watch for any technical issues, node or rollup instability, or unexpected forks. Smooth upgrades in the past have often been long‑term bullish, even if short‑term price action is noisy. [44]
- ETF flow data for early December
- Daily inflow / outflow numbers will show whether November’s $1.4B+ net outflows were a one‑off capitulation or the start of a longer trend. [45]
- Macro calendar
- Technical levels
- How ETH behaves around $2,800, $2,840, and $3,000–$3,100 will reveal whether today’s candle is a capitulation low or simply another step down in a larger correction. [48]
Final Thoughts and Disclaimer
Ethereum’s price on December 1, 2025 tells two stories at once:
- In the short term, ETH is in a fragile, leverage‑driven selloff, with ETF outflows, DeFi exploits and macro shocks amplifying every move.
- In the long term, the network is days away from a major upgrade aimed at scaling it for millions of users and trillions in on‑chain value, with institutional infrastructure continuing to deepen around it.
Whether December 2025 ultimately marks a cycle bottom or a mid‑cycle correction will depend on how these forces balance out over the next few weeks.
Important: Nothing in this article is financial or investment advice. Cryptocurrencies are highly volatile and you can lose all of the money you invest. Always do your own research, consider your risk tolerance, and, if needed, consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.
References
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