Bitcoin Price Today, December 1, 2025: BTC/USD Crashes Below $86K as BOJ Shock, DeFi Hack and ETF Outflows Hit Crypto

Bitcoin kicked off December deep in the red. At the time of writing on December 1, 2025, BTC/USD is trading around $85,800–$86,000, down roughly 5–6% in the last 24 hours and almost 32% below its October all‑time high near $126,000. ^[1]

The move extends a bruising correction that has already erased all of Bitcoin’s gains for 2025 and wiped more than $1 trillion off the broader crypto market’s peak value. ^[2]

In this article you’ll find:

Today’s Bitcoin price overview and key BTC/USD levels
The main reasons BTC is falling right now
A look at the technical picture: death cross, support and resistance
Short‑term forecasts for December 2025 from leading analysts
Medium‑ and long‑term outlooks for 2026 and beyond
The key risks and catalysts to watch next

Bitcoin price today: BTC/USD slides under $86,000

Real‑time crypto and derivatives data show BTC/USD last near $85,860, with an intraday high around $91,900 and a low just under $85,700, implying a one‑day loss of about 5.9%.

Newswires broadly agree on the scale of the slump:

Reuters reports Bitcoin fell nearly 5% to about $86,750, marking its sharpest daily decline in a month and extending November’s $18,000 slide. ^[3]
Bloomberg notes BTC briefly traded beneath $88,000 in a “risk‑off start to December.” ^[4]
UK business live coverage says Bitcoin has sunk below $86,000, down from an October peak above $126,000 as leveraged positions unwind. ^[5]

From a broader perspective:

Bitcoin opened 2025 around $93,500, meaning it now sits roughly 8% lower year‑to‑date. ^[6]
The drawdown from October’s record near $126,000 is close to 32%, in line with historical bear‑phase corrections of around 30%. ^[7]

Sentiment has turned notably cautious. Crypto exchange Changelly shows an 80% bearish technical bias, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index at 28 (“Fear”) and just 43% green days over the last month. ^[8]

Why is Bitcoin dropping today?

Today’s sell‑off is not driven by a single headline but by a cluster of macro, structural and crypto‑native shocks hitting at once.

1. BOJ shock and the yen carry‑trade unwind

The most immediate macro trigger came from Japan.

Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda signaled that a rate hike is on the table for the December 18–19 meeting, sending the yen sharply higher and pushing Japanese bond yields to their highest levels since 2008. ^[9]
This threatens the long‑standing “yen carry trade”, where investors borrow cheaply in yen to fund positions in risk assets like tech stocks and crypto. As that trade unwinds, leverage is cut and high‑beta assets such as Bitcoin are among the first to be sold. ^[10]

One detailed market note describes Bitcoin’s move as a liquidity shock: as the yen rallies and Japanese yields climb, speculators face higher funding costs and begin deleveraging across crypto, amplifying downside volatility. ^[11]

2. Yearn Finance DeFi hack rattles confidence

At the same time, crypto is dealing with a fresh DeFi security incident:

Yearn Finance’s yETH product suffered an unlimited‑mint exploit, allowing an attacker to drain its pool in a single transaction. Estimates suggest millions of dollars in liquid‑staking tokens were stolen and routed through Tornado Cash‑linked addresses. ^[12]
Yearn has confirmed the incident, stressing that its main V2 and V3 vaults remain secure, but the hack has undermined trust in DeFi risk management just as markets were trying to stabilize. ^[13]

Macro‑focused desks, including Saxo’s, note that crypto “opened December under pressure” after the Yearn hack, with Bitcoin trading in the mid‑$80k area, down about 5% in 24 hours, while major altcoins slid 6–8%. ^[14]

Investing.com headlines sum it up bluntly: “Bitcoin price today: plunges to $86k as Yearn Finance pool breach rattles markets.” ^[15]

3. ETF outflows and institutional de‑risking

Today’s drop also continues a broader institutional shake‑out:

Reuters reports that U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw record November outflows of about $3.43 billion, reversing much of the inflow euphoria seen earlier in the year. ^[16]
Separate analysis highlights over $1.2 billion of ETF outflows during a previous leg lower, as the much‑celebrated ETF era cuts both ways: large passive inflows on the way up, but equally powerful outflows during stress. ^[17]

Several analysts argue that Bitcoin’s sharp swings in late 2025 are now tightly linked to ETF and derivatives flows, rather than purely retail speculation.

4. The Fed just ended quantitative tightening — but markets are in “wait and see” mode

Ironically, the sell‑off arrives on the day that should, in theory, be supportive for risk assets:

On October 29, the Federal Reserve announced it would end balance‑sheet runoff on December 1, effectively halting quantitative tightening (QT) after shrinking its holdings by more than $2.2 trillion since 2022. ^[18]
As of today, QT2 is now officially over; the Fed is stabilizing its balance sheet around $6.6 trillion, which many strategists see as a bullish liquidity shift for risk assets over the medium term. ^[19]

Crypto‑focused outlets have hailed this as the potential start of a “new liquidity super‑cycle”, drawing parallels to 2019 when the last QT pause helped fuel a major BTC rally. ^[20]

For now, though, the BOJ shock, DeFi hack and ETF outflows are overwhelming that positive backdrop. The result: Bitcoin is selling off into what might eventually prove a supportive macro shift, a pattern that often defines market bottoms—but only in hindsight.

BTC/USD technical picture: death cross, $80K support and downside targets

Technically, BTC/USD is in a clear corrective phase.

Death cross signals trend deterioration

Several big‑name analysts and outlets have highlighted a “death cross” on Bitcoin’s daily chart:

On November 16, Bitcoin’s 50‑day moving average dropped below its 200‑day moving average, forming the classic death‑cross pattern that often signals a transition from bullish to bearish trend. ^[21]

This has reinforced the narrative that the October spike above $120K may have been an exhaustion move, rather than the start of a sustained new leg higher. ^[22]

Key support: $80K, then $74K and lower

Technical breakdowns from multiple research desks cluster around similar zones:

Immediate “danger zone” is around $80,000–$81,000, a level that has already been tested and briefly held but is now considered fragile. ^[23]
A confirmed break of $80K opens the door to the next major support band near $74,000–$76,000, which corresponds to prior high‑volume consolidation and key Fibonacci levels. ^[24]
Some longer‑horizon bear scenarios map potential panic lows toward the mid‑$60K area and even around $50K, if macro conditions worsen and ETF outflows accelerate. ^[25]

In other words, $80K is a critical line in the sand for bulls right now. Strength above that level suggests a range‑bound consolidation; a decisive break below it would likely force another round of forced deleveraging.

Resistance: reclaiming $90K–$100K is crucial

On the upside, analysts flag several important hurdles:

Short‑term resistance sits around $90,000–$92,000, where previous bounces have failed. ^[26]
Above that, the $98,000–$102,000 zone is seen as a key pivot; a breakout there would signal that the correction is giving way to a new attempt at trend resumption. ^[27]

For now, with price stuck in the mid‑$80Ks, the path of least resistance in the very short term still tilts slightly lower, unless macro sentiment stabilizes.

Short‑term Bitcoin price forecasts for December 2025

Analysts are split on how the rest of December will play out, but most agree on one thing: volatility is not going away.

Bear‑leaning tactical calls

DailyForex’s BTC/USD signal for December 1 adopts a bearish tactical stance, recommending shorts with a take‑profit target around $80,000 and a stop near $90,000 over a 1–2 day horizon. The analysis notes that BTC, at about $85,800, remains well below its $126,300 year‑to‑date high, and that recent gains were mostly a “buy‑the‑dip” bounce driven by expectations of a Fed rate cut and modest ETF inflows. ^[28]
Forex24.pro’s weekly BTC/USD forecast for December 1–5 also leans bearish, envisaging a possible test of the $95,000 resistance area before a continuation lower that could, in an extreme scenario, stretch toward $55,000 if the downtrend accelerates. A decisive break above $105,000 would invalidate that view and reopen a path toward $120,000, underscoring how wide the scenario tree remains. ^[29]

More balanced weekly outlooks

NordFX’s multi‑asset forecast for December 1–5 highlights a tug‑of‑war between improving Fed‑related liquidity (thanks to the end of QT) and lingering macro and ETF‑driven headwinds. Their base case keeps Bitcoin in a wide $80,000–$100,000 range, with volatility spikes around upcoming U.S. data and central‑bank meetings. ^[30]
FXStreet’s Asian crypto wrap describes Bitcoin, Ethereum and Ripple as off to a “bearish start to December” with more than 4% losses by Monday morning, but stops short of calling for an outright collapse, instead emphasizing event‑driven swings. ^[31]

Overall, short‑term research tilts slightly bearish to neutral: many desks expect at least one more test of $80K, with any rebound toward $90K–$100K likely to face heavy selling unless macro conditions improve.

Medium‑ and long‑term Bitcoin forecasts: from $50K doom to $500K dreams

Zooming out, the spread of 2026 price targets is enormous, reflecting how uncertain the new macro/liquidity regime really is.

Bearish scenarios: $50K floor?

Several institutional and independent analysts warn that the current drawdown may not yet be over:

Research compiled by BitcoinWorld / CryptoRank highlights forecasts of a potential 60% crash from the all‑time high, down to around $50,000 by 2026, if tightening financial conditions and ETF outflows persist. ^[32]
Bloomberg Intelligence strategist Mike McGlone similarly sees risk of a slide towards $50,000, pointing to worsening ETF flows and a macro backdrop that doesn’t yet justify sustained risk‑on behavior. ^[33]
A series of death‑cross‑focused analyses argue that previous instances of this pattern have often led to corrections in the 30–50% range, consistent with a possible path toward the mid‑$60Ks or lower if $80K fails. ^[34]

Ultra‑bullish calls: $250K–$500K

On the opposite side, some of the crypto space’s most prominent bulls remain unshaken by the current drop:

Arthur Hayes, co‑founder and former CEO of BitMEX, has reiterated his view that Bitcoin could reach $250,000 by the end of 2025, arguing that recent dips reflect technical basis trade unwinds rather than a structural exit of big money. He cites improving dollar liquidity and the end of QT as major tailwinds. ^[35]
In a separate forecast, Hayes has gone even further, suggesting BTC could climb toward $500,000 by 2026 as global liquidity expands and a handful of “Magnificent” crypto assets dominate the next bull cycle. ^[36]
Some JPMorgan research, highlighted in Forbes coverage, frames Bitcoin as increasingly competing with gold’s multi‑trillion‑dollar market, implying upside potential of several times today’s price over the long run if adoption continues. ^[37]

The realistic middle ground

Between those extremes lies a broad middle band of forecasts, many of which see:

Choppy trading between roughly $70K and $130K through 2026, contingent on how quickly central‑bank easing resumes and how ETF flows stabilize. ^[38]
Bitcoin continuing its slow evolution from a pure speculative “beta trade” toward a core component of digital financial infrastructure, albeit with periodic 30–40% drawdowns remaining “normal” for the asset class. ^[39]

Surveys of public forecasts show 2026 targets ranging from about $60K on the low end to around $500K on the high end, underlining just how uncertain—and narrative‑driven—Bitcoin valuation still is. ^[40]

What traders and investors are watching next

Regardless of your bias, several upcoming events and metrics are front‑and‑center for Bitcoin market participants:

Federal Reserve decisions and communication
- The next scheduled FOMC meeting and any hints on future cuts will be crucial, especially now that QT has formally ended. Markets currently price a high probability of at least one more cut within the next few months. ^[41]
Bank of Japan meeting (December 18–19)
- A confirmed BOJ rate hike or even stronger hawkish guidance could deepen the carry‑trade unwind, potentially pressuring BTC and other risk assets further. ^[42]
Bitcoin ETF flows
- Persistent outflows would reinforce the bear case; a return to sustained inflows would suggest institutions view current levels as attractive. ^[43]
Resolution of the Yearn Finance exploit and broader DeFi security
- How quickly Yearn and other DeFi projects restore confidence will help determine whether this episode remains a short‑term shock or becomes a longer‑lasting drag on crypto sentiment. ^[44]
Key technical levels on BTC/USD
- On most traders’ dashboards today: $80K (major support), $90K (short‑term resistance), and the $98K–$102K area as the line separating a sustained recovery from a simple bear‑market bounce. ^[45]

Takeaways: What today’s move means for Bitcoin

Bitcoin has started December on the back foot, trading below $86,000 after a near‑6% daily drop and roughly 32% correction from October’s highs. ^[46]
The sell‑off is driven by a toxic mix of macro and crypto‑native shocks: BOJ tightening signals, the unwinding of leveraged carry trades, a high‑profile DeFi hack at Yearn Finance, and heavy Bitcoin ETF outflows. ^[47]
Technically, BTC/USD is in a post‑death‑cross correction, with $80K as a critical support. A break below that zone would bring $74K–$76K and potentially even lower levels into view, while bulls need to reclaim $90K–$100K to stabilize the chart. ^[48]
In the very short term, many traders see scope for continued choppy downside or range‑bound action, especially around upcoming Fed and BOJ meetings. ^[49]
Over the medium and long term, forecasts are extraordinarily wide—from $50K crash scenarios to $250K–$500K super‑bull calls—with the end of Fed QT acting as a potential long‑run tailwind, but not an immediate cure‑all for volatility. ^[50]

As always, Bitcoin remains a highly volatile, speculative asset. Nothing in this article is financial advice: anyone considering exposure to BTC or related instruments should carefully assess their risk tolerance, time horizon, and diversification, and be prepared for large price swings in both directions.

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