As of the close on 1 December 2025, Experian PLC stock sits well below its 2025 highs, even after reporting strong half‑year results, raising guidance and continuing share buybacks. At the same time, investors are weighing new competitive risks from FICO’s direct‑licensing move, ongoing regulatory scrutiny and a still‑rich valuation.
This article pulls together the latest news, forecasts and analysis on Experian PLC (LON: EXPN / OTC: EXPGF, EXPGY) up to 1 December 2025, using data from Experian itself, major newswires and leading analyst‑consensus platforms. It is informational only and not investment advice.
Experian share price on 1 December 2025
On 1 December 2025, Experian PLC closed in London with a bid/offer around 3,313p / 3,314p, giving a market capitalisation of roughly £30.3bn. The stock traded between 3,283p and 3,335p during the session, with relatively light volume of about 88k shares. Over the last year it has moved in a 52‑week range of 3,049p–4,101p, with the high hit on 18 July 2025. [1]
Looking at longer‑term performance and valuation:
- 1‑year performance: roughly –11–12%
- Year‑to‑date (2025): about –3.7%
- 5‑year price return: about +24%
- Trailing P/E: around 28–29x
- Dividend yield: about 1.4–1.5%
- FY revenue (latest full year): ~£5.9bn, net income ~£0.9bn [2]
In other words, Experian currently trades:
- Well below its mid‑2025 peak (over 4,100p),
- Well above the April 2025 low (just above 3,000p), and
- At a premium multiple to the broader FTSE 100, reflecting expectations of continued high‑single‑digit organic growth.
2025 trading: strong first quarter and upgraded half‑year guidance
Q1 FY26: a solid start
Experian’s financial year ends 31 March. For the first quarter to 30 June 2025 (Q1 FY26), the group reported:
- Total revenue growth: +12% at constant currency
- Organic revenue growth: +8%
- By region (organic):
- North America: +9%
- Latin America: +5%
- UK & Ireland: +1%
- EMEA & Asia Pacific: +7%
Management kept the full‑year outlook unchanged at that point. [3]
An Investing.com transcript of the Q1 call highlights that acquisitions completed in the prior year were integrating well and that consumer services growth, excluding one‑off data‑breach‑related work, was significantly stronger than the headline numbers. [4]
H1 FY26: double‑digit growth and guidance raised
The big inflection came with half‑year results for the six months to 30 September 2025, released on 12 November 2025. According to Experian’s H1 FY26 results announcement and subsequent coverage: [5]
- Revenue:
- US$4.07bn, up from US$3.63bn a year earlier
- +12% total revenue growth from ongoing activities at constant currency
- +8% organic revenue growth
- By region (organic revenue growth, H1):
- North America: +10%
- Latin America: +4%
- UK & Ireland: +1%
- EMEA & Asia Pacific: +6%
- By business line:
- Business‑to‑Business (B2B): +8% organic
- Consumer Services: +9% organic; excluding a roughly 4‑percentage‑point drag from one‑off data‑breach services, Consumer Services growth was closer to +13%
- Profitability and cash:
- Benchmark EBIT from ongoing activities up 14%
- Benchmark EBIT margin up about 50 basis points at constant currency
- Statutory profit before tax up 36% to US$975m
- Benchmark EPS up 12–13% (depending on FX basis)
- Benchmark operating cash flow up 25%, with cash conversion improving from 71% to 77%
- Dividend:
- First interim dividend 21.25 US cents, up 10% year‑on‑year
Reuters summarised the update as Experian guiding full‑year total revenue growth of 11% and organic growth of 8%, both at the top end of the previous 9–11% and 6–8% ranges. [6]
The company also reiterated that margin expansion of 30–50 bps remains the target for the year, even while it continues to invest heavily in technology and new product development. [7]
Strategy: AI, analytics and the KYC360 acquisition
A recurring theme in Experian’s communications this year has been artificial intelligence and advanced analytics.
In its H1 FY26 statement, Experian emphasised that both customer experiences and internal processes are being improved via AI‑driven automation and personalisation, and that growth is increasingly coming from analytics, decisioning software and fraud‑prevention solutions layered on top of core data. [8]
Two recent deals underscore this direction:
- KYC360 acquisition (October 2025)
Experian acquired KYC360, a Jersey‑based regtech providing anti‑financial‑crime and customer‑lifecycle‑management (CLM) SaaS to over 1,000 organisations, including major financial and professional‑services firms. Experian plans to integrate KYC360’s onboarding and screening tools into its Ascend platform, enhancing its fraud and compliance offering for UK & Ireland clients from 2026 onwards. [9] - NeuroID integration (2024–25)
Earlier, Experian bought US‑based NeuroID, a behavioural‑analytics start‑up whose technology is now embedded in the CrossCore component of Ascend. Combined with KYC360, this points to a clear push into AI‑powered fraud detection and friction‑reduced onboarding. [10]
Reuters notes that Experian has spent around US$1.2bn on acquisitions to bulk up services such as fraud prevention, particularly in Australia, New Zealand and Brazil, and that these efforts are now contributing meaningfully to the group’s growth beyond traditional credit scoring. [11]
Shareholder returns: dividend growth and ongoing buybacks
Experian combines dividend growth with share repurchases:
- The first interim dividend for FY26 was raised 10% to 21.25 US cents, following a multi‑year record of progressive payouts. [12]
- At the current share price and trailing distribution, the headline dividend yield is roughly 1.4–1.5%. [13]
On the buyback side, a recent update highlighted that Experian has:
- Repurchased 19,000 shares in one transaction as part of its ongoing programme,
- Bringing total repurchases to over 2.4 million shares, and
- Raised treasury holdings to more than 56 million shares. [14]
TipRanks characterises the intention of the programme as managing share capital and “enhancing shareholder value”, while also noting that the stock’s valuation is high and that technical indicators remain somewhat bearish in the short term. [15]
Regulatory and legal backdrop: CFPB case dismissed, but scrutiny remains
Regulation is an ever‑present risk for credit bureaus. In August 2025, a notable U.S. legal overhang eased when a Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) lawsuit against Experian over credit report accuracy was dismissed without prejudice by a federal judge in California. [16]
Key points from Reuters’ coverage: [17]
- The case, originally filed in January, alleged that Experian had failed U.S. consumers who challenged aspects of their credit reports.
- Judge Michelle Williams dismissed the suit without prejudice, meaning the CFPB can attempt to refile an amended complaint.
- The decision removed an immediate courtroom threat but does not eliminate regulatory risk in the U.S. consumer‑credit ecosystem.
Separately, Reuters has reported that the CFPB is looking to transfer many of its remaining enforcement cases to the U.S. Department of Justice due to funding constraints, highlighting a fluid enforcement environment that could still affect Experian and peers. [18]
Competitive shock: FICO’s direct‑licensing move and bureau earnings risk
A major piece of industry news in October 2025 came not from Experian itself but from Fair Isaac (FICO).
FICO announced plans to sell mortgage credit scores directly to lenders and resellers, bypassing credit bureaus, which had traditionally added a markup to FICO scores they resold. [19]
According to Reuters’ report: [20]
- Experian, Equifax and TransUnion fell sharply on the day of the announcement; Experian shares closed about 4% lower in London.
- Analysts at Jefferies suggested the new model could hit credit‑bureau earnings by 10–15% on average, assuming lenders avoid bureau markups where possible.
- Raymond James estimated that lenders currently pay roughly double the base FICO price once bureau markups are included.
- The move is limited to mortgage scores, but it raises questions about the longer‑term economics of bureau‑FICO relationships and the potential for similar changes in other products.
For Experian, the main risks are:
- Margin pressure in U.S. mortgage‑related scoring and data services;
- The need to lean harder on proprietary analytics and alternative scores (including its role in VantageScore) to defend pricing power; and
- A market narrative that the traditional bureau “toll booth” on FICO scores may be structurally challenged.
This helps explain why Experian stock has struggled to revisit its July highs despite robust reported growth.
Consensus expectations for FY26 and beyond
Company‑compiled analyst estimates
Experian publishes a company‑compiled consensus on its investor website for the year ending 31 March 2026 (FY26). The latest table (last updated by the various covering brokers in mid‑ to late‑2025) shows: [21]
- Average total revenue:US$8,416m
- Average organic revenue growth:8.0%
- Average Benchmark EBIT:US$2,397m
- Average Benchmark EPS:178.5 US cents
- Average dividend per share (DPS):70.0 US cents
The range of revenue forecasts runs from about US$8.27bn to US$8.51bn, with organic growth assumptions mostly between 7–9%, broadly aligned with management’s upgraded guidance. [22]
External analyst‑target data
Several independent data providers also track Experian:
- Financial Times forecasts
- 15 analysts provide 12‑month price targets.
- Median target: ~4,501p, with a high near 5,551p and a low around 3,050p.
- The median implies roughly 35% upside from a reference price of 3,323p. [23]
- MarketBeat
- Based on 6 recent ratings, consensus is “Moderate Buy” with 5 Buys and 1 Hold.
- Average target price: about 4,320p, implying around 30% upside from a price just over 3,300p. [24]
- TipRanks
- Aggregating 9 “Wall Street” analysts over the last 3 months, TipRanks reports a “Strong Buy” consensus, with 8 Buy, 0 Hold, 1 Sell.
- Average target: about 4,479p; range roughly 3,162p–5,571p.
- TipRanks estimates this represents around 34.8% upside from a current price near 3,323p. [25]
- MarketScreener (global consensus in USD)
- 17 analysts, mean consensus rating “Buy”.
- Average target price:US$57.49 versus a last close near US$43.99, implying about 31% upside.
- Target range runs from about US$41.45 (near current levels) to US$73.09 at the high end. [26]
- Fintel (ADR EXPGF)
- Average one‑year price target of about US$59.58, with a range US$40.10–US$75.87, implying around 24% upside vs the ADR’s recent price. [27]
Overlaying these sources, the central tendency of analyst opinion is:
High‑single‑digit revenue growth, mid‑teens EPS growth and 30%‑ish upside to fair value over 12 months, albeit with meaningful dispersion between the most bullish and most cautious views.
Technical and sentiment indicators
On the quantitative side:
- TradingView “Key stats” show a trailing P/E of ~29x, dividend yield around 1.46%, beta around 1.28 and a 5‑year price return of ~24%. [28]
- TradingView’s performance summary has YTD returns around –3.7% and one‑year performance around –11.7%, reflecting a pullback from mid‑year highs. [29]
On the sentiment and “AI‑powered rating” side:
- TipRanks’ Spark AI Analyst currently labels EXPN an “Outperform” idea, citing strong financial performance and positive earnings‑call sentiment, but also flags bearish technicals and elevated valuation that limit short‑term attractiveness. [30]
- StockInvest’s automated model recently projected fair opening levels around 3,322p and reiterates that the 52‑week high and low sit at 4,101p and 3,049p respectively, with a market cap near £30.4bn. [31]
How the market narrative is evolving
Recent coverage paints a nuanced picture:
- Reuters’ November 12 piece emphasises that Experian is benefiting from a “nascent recovery” in U.S. lending and robust demand for consumer services, helped by acquisitions in fraud prevention and analytics. [32]
- MarketScreener/AlphaValue have run pieces with titles such as “AI to drive the next leg of Experian’s growth” and, earlier in 2025, commentary questioning whether FY26 guidance might be “over‑optimistic”, signalling that even optimistic analysts see execution risk. [33]
- Retail‑facing commentary on Yahoo Finance has described Experian as a “world‑class FTSE 100 stock” whose recent bounce may still leave room for long‑term investors, despite earlier declines of around 6% from local peaks. [34]
- A separate Yahoo‑syndicated market report projects solid growth for the credit‑score tracking and monitoring market, highlighting Experian, Equifax, TransUnion and others as key beneficiaries of rising consumer demand for personalised credit insights. [35]
At the same time, an August Reuters Breakingviews column flagged that European “AI adopter” stocks, including data‑rich platforms, have at times traded like momentum names vulnerable to sharp pullbacks when investors question the durability of their competitive edge. [36]
Bull vs bear case for Experian PLC stock
Bull case: structural growth, diversification and data moat
Supporters of Experian typically highlight:
- Structural tailwinds: Increasing digitisation of finance, e‑commerce and identity verification should keep demand for credit data, fraud detection and decisioning analytics growing faster than GDP. [37]
- High‑quality growth: H1 FY26 organic revenue growth of 8%, with double‑digit growth in North America and healthy gains in EMEA/APAC, suggests the business can deliver high‑single‑digit to low‑double‑digit top‑line growth through the cycle. [38]
- Margin and cash discipline: Benchmark EBIT up 14% with margin expansion and better cash conversion underpins double‑digit EPS growth and supports rising dividends and buybacks. [39]
- Diversification beyond credit reports: Heavy investment and M&A in fraud prevention, CLM and AI‑driven analytics (NeuroID, KYC360, Ascend, CrossCore) broaden the revenue base and can partially offset any commoditisation of core scores. [40]
- Analyst support: Across FT, MarketScreener, MarketBeat, TipRanks and Fintel, the average 12‑month upside is in the 25–35% range, with a clear skew toward Buy/Outperform ratings. [41]
Bear case: valuation, FICO risk and regulatory overhang
Sceptics point to:
- Rich valuation: A trailing P/E near 28–29x and a forward multiple still comfortably above the FTSE average leave less room for disappointment, especially with a sub‑2% dividend yield. [42]
- FICO direct‑licensing threat: If lenders embrace buying mortgage FICO scores directly, the 10–15% earnings hit projected by some analysts for credit bureaus could ultimately materialise, forcing Experian either to lower prices, accept volume loss, or lean even harder on alternative products. [43]
- Regulatory risk: While the CFPB case was dismissed without prejudice, it can potentially be re‑filed, and the broader U.S. regulatory environment for consumer credit remains fluid. [44]
- Macroeconomic exposure: Parts of Experian’s portfolio are sensitive to credit cycles and consumer health, especially in the UK and some Latin American markets. Organic growth in those regions has been notably lower than in North America. [45]
- Technical picture: The stock is still down double‑digits year‑on‑year and trading below its summer peak; AI‑driven sentiment tools like TipRanks Spark highlight bearish technicals and valuation concerns, even while labelling the fundamental outlook “Outperform”. [46]
Bottom line
As of 1 December 2025, Experian PLC is a classic “quality growth vs valuation risk” story:
- Operationally, the company is executing well: delivering 8% organic growth, expanding margins, compounding earnings and shifting its mix toward higher‑value analytics and fraud solutions. [47]
- Strategically, Experian is leaning into AI and regtech via platforms like Ascend and deals such as KYC360 and NeuroID, aiming to ensure that it is building the tools that could disrupt its own legacy business before others do. [48]
- From a market perspective, the share price has de‑rated from its 2025 highs but still prices in a premium to the market, while external shocks (FICO’s direct‑licensing model, regulatory noise) create an uneasy backdrop. [49]
Most sell‑side analysts remain positive, seeing Experian as a long‑term compounder and assigning 12‑month targets roughly 30% above current levels. But the investment thesis now hinges on whether Experian can prove that its AI‑ and analytics‑driven diversification more than offsets both regulatory risk and the FICO‑related squeeze on traditional bureau economics.
Anyone considering Experian PLC stock needs to weigh those opposing forces, match them to their own risk tolerance, time horizon and portfolio mix, and, ideally, cross‑check the latest filings and local regulations or tax considerations before making any move.
References
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