Canada Stock Market Today, December 1, 2025: TSX Futures Ease as Bank Earnings Loom and Metals Rally

Canada’s stock market is stepping into December from a position of strength but with a cautious tone. After the S&P/TSX Composite Index closed out November at record highs, futures are slightly lower this morning as investors look ahead to a packed week of bank earnings and closely watched central-bank decisions, while powerful rallies in gold, silver, and oil continue to support the commodity-heavy index. ^[1]

TSX Enters December Near Record Highs

Canada’s main stock benchmark just wrapped one of its strongest stretches in years:

Friday (Nov. 28) close: The S&P/TSX Composite ended up about 186 points, or 0.6%, at 31,382.78, a fresh all‑time closing high. ^[2]
November performance: The index gained roughly 3.7% in November, its seventh straight monthly advance, the longest winning streak since 2021. ^[3]
Year to date: On a total‑return basis, the TSX has delivered close to 30% gains in 2025, outpacing many global peers. ^[4]

The latest leg of the rally has been driven heavily by:

Precious metals miners, benefiting from surging gold and silver prices. ^[5]
Energy producers, helped by firmer oil prices and fresh support from OPEC+’s decision to hold output steady. ^[6]
Financials, with Canada’s big banks rallying strongly into year-end ahead of their fourth‑quarter results. ^[7]

Put simply, the TSX is starting December from a high base, which makes today’s slight pullback in futures less about panic and more about digestion after an exceptional run.

Futures Slip as Investors Brace for Bank Earnings

Pre‑market tone: mild risk-off, but no panic

In early pre‑market trade, S&P/TSX 60 futures were down about 0.3% around 06:20–07:45 a.m. Eastern, according to both Reuters and Investing.com. Higher commodity prices cushioned the decline, but investors are clearly taking a breather after November’s surge. ^[8]

The story is similar globally: U.S. stock futures are also lower as markets wait for a speech from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and key manufacturing data later today, with traders pricing in a high probability of a Fed rate cut in December.

Banks in the spotlight – and priced for perfection

A major reason for the cautious tone is that Canada’s Big Six banks are about to report fourth‑quarter and full‑year 2025 results:

Collectively, their shares are up roughly 32% year to date, outpacing the TSX’s roughly 27% price gain. ^[9]
They are trading around 12.9× forward earnings, about 23% above their 10‑year average, leaving little room for disappointment. ^[10]
Net income for Q4 is projected to grow between 3.5% and over 40%, while loan‑loss provisions are expected to rise at most banks, except at BMO where provisions are forecast to drop sharply. ^[11]

Analysts are watching particularly closely for:

Credit quality, including exposure to U.S. regional banks, private credit, and non‑bank financial institutions. ^[12]
U.S. operations, which have become a key growth driver, especially for banks like BMO, while Scotiabank has the smallest U.S. footprint among the Big Six. ^[13]

Earnings calendar: what lands when

This week is stacked with bank results and could set the tone for the TSX through the rest of December:

Tuesday, Dec. 2: Scotiabank (Q4 2025 results before market open). ^[14]
Wednesday, Dec. 3: Royal Bank of Canada and National Bank report before the open. ^[15]
Thursday, Dec. 4: BMO, CIBC, and TD all report, rounding out the Big Six. ^[16]

With financials making up nearly a third of the TSX, even small surprises—positive or negative—can move the entire index. ^[17]

Commodities Still Doing the Heavy Lifting

Gold near six‑week highs, silver at a record

Precious metals are reinforcing Canada’s stock rally:

Gold is trading near a six‑week high, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar and rising expectations of a Fed rate cut as soon as this month.
Silver has been even more explosive. It recently touched a record near $57.8 per ounce and is now up more than 100% year‑to‑date, driven by looser policy expectations, strong industrial demand and a softer dollar.

A Cryptonews analysis notes that investors are rotating toward metals as crypto markets suffer one of their sharpest pullbacks since 2022, with Bitcoin down more than 30% from its recent peak.

For the TSX, these trends are particularly important because:

Gold and silver miners carry significant weight in the index.
Precious metals rallies typically boost index heavyweights in the materials sector, offsetting any weakness in growth or rate‑sensitive stocks. ^[18]

Oil edges higher on OPEC+ stance and supply risks

Oil prices are also supporting Canadian equities:

Brent and WTI crude are up around 0.5–1% today, adding to a modest rebound after recent volatility. ^[19]
Gains are being attributed to OPEC+ reaffirming a pause on output changes and ongoing concerns about global supply disruptions.

Higher crude prices are a tailwind for Canadian energy producers and help explain why futures are only mildly lower despite nerves around bank valuations.

Macro Backdrop: Rate Cuts, GDP Rebound and Soft‑Landing Hopes

Bank of Canada: one cut delivered, another on the table

The Bank of Canada (BoC) cut its policy rate by 25 basis points to 2.25% on October 29, citing slower growth and elevated trade uncertainty. ^[20]

Key points:

The Bank signalled it may be nearing the end of its easing cycle, but left the door open to further cuts if growth slows materially. ^[21]
The next rate decision is scheduled for December 10, 2025, and markets are currently pricing in a high chance that the BoC will stay on hold, barring a major growth shock. ^[22]

Canadian economy: surprisingly solid, but not booming

TD Economics’ latest Weekly Bottom Line, published November 28, paints a nuanced picture:

Q3 2025 GDP rebounded 2.6% annualized, far stronger than forecasts, after a contraction in Q2.
However, the rebound was driven heavily by government spending, while underlying domestic demand remains soft.
Export‑reliant sectors such as manufacturing and parts of resource production are still lagging, and early data point to a possible dip in activity in October.
Overall, the economy is tracking close to the BoC’s forecast of roughly 1% growth over the next several quarters, a pace consistent with a “soft landing” rather than a deep recession.

That backdrop—slower but positive growth, fading inflation and a policy rate already well off its peak—helps explain why strategists remain broadly constructive on Canadian equities even after a big run‑up.

Global context: Fed and AI worries set the tone

On the global side:

Futures and options markets are assigning roughly 80–90% odds to a Fed rate cut in December, according to recent market‑based measures cited by TD Economics and Reuters.
U.S. markets ended November with solid gains for the S&P 500 and Dow, but the Nasdaq finished lower as investors reassessed the durability of the AI boom.

Canadian stocks—especially banks, energy companies and miners—are all sensitive to this mix of Fed expectations, risk appetite, and commodity trends.

What Strategists Are Saying About the Canadian Market

1. Healthy profit growth, but likely slower returns

Edward Jones’ 2025 market outlook argues that both the TSX and S&P 500 should see continued but moderating gainsnext year. They expect: ^[23]

Healthy earnings growth for Canadian companies, particularly in financials and energy.
A backdrop of ongoing economic expansion in Canada and the U.S., supported by lower policy rates and positive real wage growth.
TSX returns that remain positive but likely lag U.S. equities, given Canada’s heavier weight in banks and commodities.

The firm frames volatility as an opportunity for investors to rebalance and add quality holdings rather than a reason to flee risk assets.

2. EPS growth around 8% for the TSX in 2025

Institutional manager Connor, Clark & Lunn (CC&L) forecasts about 8% earnings‑per‑share growth for the S&P/TSX Composite in 2025, compared with roughly 12% EPS growth for the S&P 500. ^[24]

Their base case assumes:

Continued stability across most Canadian sectors.
No severe recession, but a moderation in growth as higher past rates filter through.

This level of earnings growth, combined with today’s elevated but not extreme valuations, supports the idea of mid‑single‑digit to high‑single‑digit total returns—though as today’s rich bank multiples show, the market will likely punish any major earnings misses.

3. Non‑U.S. markets—and Canada—have finally caught a bid

A fall 2025 market outlook from RBC Global Asset Management highlights that Canada’s S&P/TSX, along with emerging markets and developed markets outside the U.S., has outperformed the S&P 500 by roughly 10 percentage points this year. ^[25]

RBC GAM argues that:

This may mark the early stages of a longer period of non‑U.S. outperformance, after more than a decade of U.S. dominance.
A still‑wide valuation discount versus U.S. large‑caps provides room for further catch‑up, especially in dividend‑rich markets like Canada.

4. Early‑year targets have already been blown away

Back in January, a Raymond James outlook projected the TSX Composite would finish 2025 around 26,300, implying an 8.5% total return. ^[26]

Instead, by late November the index had already surged above 31,000, far surpassing that target and underscoring how powerful 2025’s rally has been for Canadian stocks. ^[27]

5. Trade risk and U.S. policy remain wild cards

A Canada Life 2025 market outlook notes that while the TSX has been resilient, protectionist U.S. trade policies and tariffs remain a key risk for Canada, given its role as the United States’ largest trading partner. Sectors reliant on exports—like autos, steel, lumber and some energy segments—could feel the strain if trade tensions intensify. ^[28]

Key Themes for Investors to Watch in December

Without offering individual investment advice, here are the main market drivers to monitor as December unfolds:

Big Six bank earnings
- Net interest margins, loan growth, and fee income from wealth and capital markets.
- Loan‑loss provisions and any signs of stress in consumer, commercial or U.S. loan books. ^[29]
Central‑bank meetings
- The Fed’s December decision, where markets expect a rate cut that could further lift rate‑sensitive and growth assets.
- The BoC’s December 10 announcement, where a “hold with a dovish tone” could support banks, utilities and real‑estate equities.
Commodity prices
- Whether gold and silver can hold their breakouts, which is crucial for Canadian miners.
- The path of crude oil, which directly affects Canadian energy earnings and the loonie.
AI and tech sentiment
- The global AI trade has become more volatile, and any sharp swings in U.S. tech can spill over into Canadian growth names and the broader risk environment. ^[30]
Trade and tariff headlines
- Ongoing negotiations and policy moves between the U.S. and its trading partners, including Canada, will shape the medium‑term outlook for export‑heavy Canadian sectors. ^[31]

Bottom Line

Canada’s stock market is entering December on a high, with the TSX sitting near record levels after seven consecutive monthly gains and a year‑to‑date total return around 30%. ^[32]

Today’s modest dip in futures reflects healthy caution rather than outright fear:

Valuations—especially for the big banks—are full, so this week’s earnings could trigger sharp moves in either direction. ^[33]
At the same time, surging gold and silver, firmer oil prices, and a still‑plausible soft‑landing scenario for the Canadian and U.S. economies are providing powerful support underneath the market. ^[34]

For now, the story of the Canadian stock market on December 1, 2025 is one of momentum meeting high expectations: the rally has been spectacular, the backdrop remains broadly favourable, but the bar for good news—particularly from the banks—is higher than it has been in years.

(This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice.)