Dominion Energy Stock Forecast 2025–2026: AI Data Centers, Offshore Wind and Rate Hikes Push NYSE:D to New Highs

Published: December 1, 2025 – This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

Dominion Energy stock (NYSE: D) has quietly turned into one of 2025’s more interesting utility stories. A year ago it was still viewed as a “problem child” after asset sales, a dividend reset and offshore wind uncertainty. Today, the shares are trading around $62, near a fresh 52‑week high, up roughly 15% in 2025 as investors warm to its AI‑driven data center growth and cleaner balance sheet. ^[1]

At the same time, the stock now sits in a valuation gray zone: Wall Street targets imply only modest upside on average, while some cash‑flow and dividend models flag overvaluation. ^[2]

Here’s a deep dive into the latest news, earnings, offshore wind updates, regulatory decisions and analyst forecasts as of December 1, 2025, plus what they collectively suggest for Dominion Energy’s stock outlook into 2026 and beyond.

Dominion Energy Stock Today: Price, Valuation and Dividend Snapshot

Share price: ~$62 intraday on December 1, 2025 ^[3]
52‑week high: about $62.63, set on November 27, 2025 ^[4]
Market cap: roughly $53 billion ^[5]
Trailing P/E: ~21.6x
PEG ratio: ~2.1x
Dividend: $0.6675 per quarter (annual $2.67) – yield about 4.3% at current prices ^[6]
Payout ratio (based on earnings): ~91% ^[7]
Debt‑to‑equity: about 1.35 ^[8]

For income‑oriented investors, a regulated utility yielding ~4.3% with visible earnings growth is compelling. But that high payout ratio – combined with huge capital needs – is a central part of the debate on whether D stock still offers an attractive risk‑reward after its 2025 rally.

Q3 2025 Earnings: Solid Beat and Tighter Guidance

Dominion’s third‑quarter 2025 results at the end of October were a turning point for sentiment: ^[9]

GAAP EPS: $1.16 vs. $1.09 a year earlier
Operating EPS (non‑GAAP): $1.06 vs. $0.98 last year
Operating revenue: $4.53 billion, up ~15% year‑on‑year (though a bit below consensus estimates) ^[10]
Year‑to‑date 2025 operating EPS: $2.74 vs. $2.19 in 2024 – roughly 25% growth ^[11]

Crucially, management narrowed its 2025 operating EPS guidance to $3.33–$3.48 per share, keeping the original midpoint of $3.40, and said it expects to land at or above the midpoint, assuming normal weather. ^[12]

The company also reaffirmed its long‑term guidance for 5–7% annual operating EPS growth through 2029, starting from a 2025 baseline of about $3.30 per share (excluding certain tax credits). ^[13]

That combination—a clean beat, tighter guidance and a steady long‑term growth plan—underpins recent upgrades and more constructive analyst commentary.

Data Centers and AI: The New Growth Engine

If there’s one phrase you now hear constantly in Dominion’s story, it’s “data centers.”

A $50 Billion Capex Plan Driven by Digital Load

Back in February, Dominion raised its 2025–2029 capital spending plan to about $50.1 billion, up from $43.2 billion, specifically to meet rapidly accelerating demand from data centers in its Virginia service territory. ^[14]

Highlights from that update: ^[15]

Data centers added 19 GW of contracted power capacity in December alone, an 88% jump versus July.
Dominion connected 15 new data centers in the prior year and plans to connect a similar number this year.
The company serves the world’s largest concentration of data centers in northern Virginia, a hub for cloud computing and AI workloads.
Management reaffirmed 5–7% long‑term operating EPS growth through 2029 despite weather headwinds and large capital needs.

In an updated long‑range planning filing with Virginia regulators in October, Dominion projected electricity demand growing about 5% annually and doubling by 2045, much of it tied to digital infrastructure and electrification. ^[16]

To meet that growth, Dominion forecasts adding roughly 33 GW of new capacity over the next 20 years, with a mix of: ^[17]

53% solar
25% natural gas
10% wind
6% battery storage
6% small modular nuclear reactors (SMRs)

For investors, the message is clear: AI, cloud computing and electrification are transforming Dominion from a slow‑growth regulated utility into a capital‑intensive infrastructure story.

Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind: Giant Project, Rising Bill

Dominion’s 2.6 GW Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind (CVOW) project remains one of the largest single variables in the investment case.

Progress: Two‑Thirds Complete

As of late November, Dominion and its partner Stonepeak report the CVOW project is roughly 66% complete, moving toward a planned commercial operation date at the end of 2026. ^[18]

The project, located about 43 km (27 miles) off Virginia Beach and consisting of 176 turbines, is designed to supply enough carbon‑free power for hundreds of thousands of homes and help Virginia meet its clean energy mandates. ^[19]

Cost Overruns and Tariff Shock

But the price tag has climbed:

Recent filings and industry reports indicate the total project cost is now around $11.2 billion, up from earlier estimates. ^[20]
New U.S. tariffs on imported wind components announced this fall are expected to add about $690 million in costs through 2026, of which roughly $218 million would fall on Dominion, with the rest borne by Stonepeak. ^[21]

In its Q3 earnings materials, Dominion also recognized about $112 million in charges tied to CVOW costs that it does not expect to recover from customers—an early reminder of regulatory and cost‑overrun risk. ^[22]

Still, management insists the project is on schedule and positioned as a cornerstone of Dominion’s net‑zero strategy and Virginia’s clean energy law.

Regulation Watch: Gas Peaker Approval, Rate Hikes and Data Center Contracts

Dominion’s fortunes are tightly linked to Virginia regulators. Two recent decisions by the State Corporation Commission (SCC) are especially important for investors.

1. Chesterfield Gas Plant Gets the Green Light

On November 25, 2025, the SCC approved Dominion’s controversial Chesterfield Energy Reliability Center (CERC): ^[23]

A 944 MW gas peaker plant on the site of a retired coal plant near Richmond.
Estimated cost about $1.47 billion.
Dominion is allowed to add a CERC rider to customer bills to recover project costs.
The plant is expected to operate only around 37% of the year, primarily during peak demand in extreme hot and cold weather.

Environmental and community groups strongly opposed the plant, arguing that building new fossil capacity is inconsistent with the Virginia Clean Economy Act (VCEA), which calls for retiring gas plants by 2045. ^[24]

Regulators, however, cited an “imminent reliability threat” and concluded the project serves the public interest given severe grid constraints driven by data centers and import dependence. ^[25]

Investor takeaway: CERC expands Dominion’s rate base and supports earnings growth, but it also heightens ESG controversy and regulatory risk around future gas projects.

2. Rate Hike and a New Class for Data Centers

In the same decision, the SCC also approved: ^[26]

A base rate increase for residential customers:
- About +$11.24 per month starting January 2026
- Another +$2.36 per month in January 2027
A modest increase in allowed return on equity to 9.8% (below Dominion’s 10.4% request).
Creation of a new rate class for “high‑load customers” (typically data centers), with:
- Thresholds over 25 MW and high load factors
- 14‑year “take‑or‑pay” contracts, meaning those customers must cover a large share of their projected costs even if usage falls or projects don’t materialize
- Minimum demand charges of 85% for transmission, 85% for distribution, and 60% for generation

For shareholders, this is significant:

It protects residential customers from subsidizing data centers.
It locks in long‑term revenue streams from some of Dominion’s most power‑hungry clients.
It reduces, but doesn’t eliminate, risk that forward‑booked demand could evaporate.

Strategy and Sustainability: Refocused and “Greener,” But Still Gas‑Heavy

Dominion has spent the last several years executing a strategic business review, shedding non‑core gas distribution businesses and simplifying its portfolio. Recent disclosures and sustainability updates emphasize: ^[27]

A focus on regulated electric utilities in Virginia and the Carolinas plus contracted energy projects.
A commitment to net‑zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, across Scopes 1, 2 and 3.
Heavy planned investment in solar, offshore wind, storage and nuclear, alongside selective gas plants to backstop reliability.

At the same time, Dominion’s latest integrated resource plan acknowledges that retiring all gas plants by 2045 while meeting data‑center‑driven demand is extremely challenging. The company anticipates needing SMRs, large‑scale nuclear and significant grid investment to make the math work. ^[28]

This tension—between clean energy goals and gas‑fueled reliability—is likely to remain a recurring theme in future rate cases and could influence allowed returns and cost recovery.

What Wall Street Says: Ratings, Targets and Growth Forecasts

Zacks: Rating Upgrade to “Buy”

On November 28, 2025, Zacks upgraded Dominion Energy to a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy), citing: ^[29]

steadily rising 2025 EPS estimates, now around $3.40 per share,
and a positive trajectory in earnings revisions over the past three months.

In Zacks’ framework, that places D among the top 20% of its coverage universe in terms of estimate revision momentum—historically a strong indicator of near‑term stock performance.

Consensus Price Targets: Mild Upside… or Mild Downside

Analyst price targets vary depending on the dataset you look at:

MarketBeat (covering 12 analysts) reports: ^[30]
- Average target: $64.22
- Ratings: 2 Buys, 9 Holds, 1 Sell – overall “Hold”
- Implied upside vs. ~$62 share price: roughly 3–4%
Benzinga’s broader sample of 20 analysts shows: ^[31]
- Consensus target: $59.25
- Target range: $52 (low, Mizuho) to $70 (high, RBC Capital)
- Implied downside of about 4% vs. current price

Recent moves include: ^[32]

RBC Capital reaffirming a $70 target (high on the Street).
Wells Fargo initiating coverage with an “Overweight” rating and a $67 target.
BMO Capital nudging its target from $65 to $67 with a “Market Perform” rating.

Taken together, the most recent large‑bank calls cluster around $67–$70—about 9–13% above current levels—while the broader consensus is more muted.

Quant and Model‑Based Views: Mixed Messages

Model‑driven services offer a more divided picture:

Simply Wall St’s growth forecasts suggest Dominion’s earnings and revenue could grow around 9.1% and 5.2% per year, with EPS up about 7.6% annually and return on equity trending toward ~9.8% in three years—well above the utility sector average. ^[33]
However, a dividend discount model (DDM) analysis recently highlighted by Sahm Capital estimated Dominion might be about 58% overvalued on a purely dividend‑based intrinsic value basis. ^[34]
Separately, a discounted cash flow (DCF) model cited by Simply Wall St indicates the stock could be trading above its DCF‑implied fair value, even as analyst forecasts portray modest undervaluation. ^[35]

In short: fundamental growth prospects look better than in recent years, but not everyone agrees the current share price fully reflects the risks tied to megaprojects and heavy capital spending.

Technicals: Improving but Not Perfect

Investor’s Business Daily recently lifted Dominion’s Relative Strength (RS) Rating from 69 to 72, citing about 15% EPS growth and 9% sales growth in the latest quarter. That signals improving momentum, though it’s still short of the RS 80+ zone IBD typically associates with top leaders. ^[36]

Bull Case for Dominion Energy Stock

Supporters of D stock point to several key arguments:

1. AI and Data Center Demand as a Long‑Run Tailwind

Dominion sits at the heart of “Data Center Alley” in northern Virginia, serving the world’s largest data center cluster. Every large language model, cloud service or streaming app running there helps anchor Dominion’s load growth and capital plan. ^[37]

With the SCC now requiring high‑load users to sign 14‑year contracts and shoulder a larger share of costs, much of that demand is effectively contracted and de‑risked from a revenue standpoint. ^[38]

2. Visibility Into Multi‑Year Earnings Growth

Management’s 5–7% EPS growth guidance through 2029, tied to a detailed $50+ billion capex plan, provides a clearer runway than many peers. The strong Q3 2025 beat and narrowed guidance range reinforce credibility after a messy 2023–2024 restructuring phase. ^[39]

3. Attractive Yield and Progress on “De‑Risking”

At a ~4.3% yield, Dominion still pays more than many large utilities and far more than the S&P 500 average. ^[40]

After selling multiple gas distribution assets and simplifying its business, the company is more focused on regulated electric utilities and contracted projects, which generally supports a more predictable earnings and dividend profile. ^[41]

4. “Utility With AI Upside” Narrative

Several recent articles and reports—from Wall Street research to financial media—have started to frame Dominion as a “utility play on AI infrastructure”, arguing that rising data‑center load can drive faster rate‑base expansion and earnings growth than traditional utilities, without fully abandoning the stability of a regulated model. ^[42]

For investors looking for defensive exposure with a structural growth kicker, that’s a powerful narrative.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

Skeptics of Dominion Energy stock have their own list of concerns.

1. Valuation Already Baking In a Lot of Good News

At ~21–22x trailing earnings and a payout ratio around 90%, Dominion looks more expensive than many regulated peers, especially given the risks attached to CVOW and heavy reliance on capital‑intensive growth. ^[43]

Model‑based valuations (like DDM and DCF) that assume conservative dividend growth and cost of capital tend to show limited margin of safety or outright overvaluation at current prices. ^[44]

2. Execution and Regulatory Risk on Mega‑Projects

CVOW is massive, complex and politically visible.

Costs have already risen due to tariffs and other factors.
Dominion has acknowledged hundreds of millions of dollars in costs that may not be recoverable from ratepayers. ^[45]
Future cost overruns or policy shifts could force additional write‑downs or squeeze returns.

Similarly, the Chesterfield gas plant approval shows regulators are willing to back Dominion’s reliability strategy—but also that environmental opposition is intense. Political shifts could change the tone of future approvals or limit further gas investments. ^[46]

3. Rate and Affordability Pressures

Virginia Mercury’s coverage of Dominion’s long‑range plan highlights that residential bills could rise substantially through 2035 and 2045 under current assumptions, even as data centers pay a growing share of costs. ^[47]

If customer bills climb too quickly, regulators may:

Clamp down on allowed returns or disallow certain costs.
Slow approval of new projects.
Revisit how much of the bill is attributable to data‑center‑driven investments.

Any of those outcomes would be negative for earnings and valuation.

4. Balance Sheet and Interest‑Rate Sensitivity

With a debt‑to‑equity ratio around 1.35 and an enormous capex pipeline, Dominion is sensitive to: ^[48]

Interest rate levels and credit spreads.
Rating agency views on its leverage and project risk.
Equity issuance (including at‑the‑market programs) that can dilute shareholders if done at modest valuations. ^[49]

While current rates are more benign than in 2023, a renewed spike in borrowing costs would pressure returns.

Dominion Energy Stock Forecast 2025–2029: Scenario Thinking

No one can predict Dominion’s share price with certainty, but the current data support a few reasonable scenarios:

Base Case (What the Market Seems to Be Pricing)

EPS grows around the midpoint of the 5–7% range through 2029 as the $50.1B capex plan is executed mostly on time and on budget. ^[50]
CVOW completes in late 2026, with limited additional cost surprises; regulators continue to allow recovery, though some costs remain unrecoverable.
Data center demand remains robust, but growth gradually normalizes from extreme levels.
The dividend grows slowly or stays flat as the company prioritizes balance sheet strength.

In this scenario, today’s ~4.3% yield plus mid‑single‑digit EPS growth could support mid‑ to high‑single‑digit annual total returns from here—broadly consistent with consensus price targets a few percent above current levels. ^[51]

Bull Case

AI and cloud workloads keep data center demand extremely strong, pushing load growth and rate base expansion toward the high end of expectations. ^[52]
Offshore wind and key gas projects achieve better‑than‑expected cost control and regulatory outcomes.
Interest rates drift lower, boosting utility valuations and reducing financing costs.

Here, RBC‑style targets around $70 (roughly 13% above current levels) might prove conservative, and some bullish forecasts that see D re‑rating toward the high‑60s or even $80 over a multi‑year period could come into view. ^[53]

Bear Case

Additional CVOW cost overruns or delays spark more write‑downs and political backlash. ^[54]
Regulators react to bill pressures by trimming allowed returns or restricting recovery of certain investments. ^[55]
Data center growth slows sharply or projects are cancelled, leaving Dominion over‑built or stuck with underutilized assets.
Rates stay high, forcing more equity issuance and weighing on valuation multiples.

Under this scenario, model‑based fair values in the mid‑50s or lower from DDM/DCF analyses could become more realistic, implying downside risk from current levels. ^[56]

Is Dominion Energy Stock a Buy, Hold or Sell Now?

From the latest news and forecasts as of December 1, 2025, a few things are clear:

The business is fundamentally stronger and clearer than it was two years ago.
The 2025 strategic review, asset sales and narrowed EPS guidance have improved transparency, while data centers and clean energy projects offer a long runway for growth. ^[57]
The stock is no longer “cheap,” but it isn’t obviously in bubble territory either.
Consensus targets suggest modest upside; recent big‑bank targets point to mid‑single‑digit to low‑double‑digit potential, but valuation models warn that much of the good news may already be priced in. ^[58]
Risk is concentrated in a handful of big, politically sensitive projects.
CVOW, the Chesterfield gas plant and future nuclear/SMR plans will determine whether Dominion can deliver on its growth promises without eroding returns. ^[59]

For income‑oriented, long‑term investors comfortable with regulated utility risk and the politics of energy transition, Dominion Energy today looks like a reasonable “hold to moderate buy” candidate:

A solid ~4.3% yield,
credible mid‑single‑digit earnings growth,
and a unique position in powering the AI and data center boom.

For value‑focused or more cautious investors, the message from DDM/DCF models and a high payout ratio is more conservative: you may prefer to wait for a pullback or clearer evidence that major projects will come in on time and on budget.

How to Think About Dominion in Your Portfolio

If you’re evaluating whether to add or adjust a position in D stock, some practical questions to ask yourself:

Do you want utility exposure with a structural growth angle, or would you prefer a simpler, lower‑risk regulated utility?
How comfortable are you with multi‑billion‑dollar megaproject risk and the potential for regulatory or political surprises?
Is a 4%+ yield with modest growth attractive enough given your view on interest rates and alternative income opportunities?

As always, align any decision with your time horizon, risk tolerance, diversification needs and overall financial plan.

Disclosure: This article is for general informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment or other professional advice. Always conduct your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.

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