Robinhood (HOOD) Stock Today: Prediction-Market Bet Meets Crypto Selloff

As of December 1, 2025, Robinhood Markets, Inc. (NASDAQ: HOOD) is trading in the mid‑$120s per share after a choppy open, with crypto‑linked stocks under pressure as Bitcoin slides below $86,000 and Wall Street shifts into a “risk‑off” mood. ^[1]

Despite today’s pullback, Robinhood remains one of 2025’s standout winners: various analyses estimate the stock is up more than 200% year‑to‑date, vastly outpacing the broader financial sector. ^[2] The company is now an S&P 500 constituent after a surprise inclusion in September, a milestone that cemented its transition from meme‑stock broker to mainstream fintech heavyweight. ^[3]

Below is a deep dive into today’s news, the latest forecasts, and what analysts and institutions are saying about HOOD stock.

Key Takeaways on Robinhood (HOOD) Stock – December 1, 2025

HOOD is volatile but elevated: Shares sit in the mid‑$120s after a multihundred‑percent run in 2025 and an intraday drop alongside other crypto‑exposed names. ^[4]
Q3 2025 was a blowout quarter: Revenue doubled year over year to $1.27 billion, with net income surging and margins expanding above 50%. ^[5]
Prediction markets are now a core growth story: Robinhood is acquiring a 90% stake in LedgerX/MIAX derivatives infrastructure, planning a new futures and prediction‑market exchange with Susquehanna in 2026 after more than 9 billion contracts traded in the first year of launch. ^[6]
Big money is piling in – and cashing out: Vanguard, State Street and BlackRock have all dramatically increased holdings, even as insiders have sold hundreds of millions of dollars in stock in recent months. ^[7]
Analysts are bullish but divided on upside: Consensus ratings cluster around “Moderate Buy,” with 12‑month price targets ranging roughly from $120 to $150 on average and extremes stretching from $47 to $181. ^[8]

Robinhood Share Price Today: Volatility Returns as Crypto Slumps

The first trading session of December opened on a sour note. Major U.S. stock indices fell at the bell, with crypto‑tied stocks such as Coinbase, Marathon, Riot Platforms and Robinhood all down several percent as Bitcoin retreated toward the mid‑$80,000s. ^[9]

Robinhood’s beta sits well above 2, and its 21‑day average true range signals that daily swings of roughly 7% are not unusual. ^[10] That high volatility cuts both ways:

On the upside, HOOD has been one of the best‑performing S&P 500 components this year, with some sources pegging its 2025 gain around 210–235%. ^[11]
On the downside, social‑media and alternative‑data trackers note the stock is still roughly 40% below recent peaks despite strong fundamentals, underscoring how sentiment can whipsaw the name. ^[12]

For traders and long‑term investors, HOOD remains a high‑beta pure play on retail trading, crypto activity and now prediction markets.

Q3 2025: Revenue Doubles, Profits Surge

Robinhood’s rally isn’t just meme‑era nostalgia – it’s being fueled by genuinely strong fundamentals.

In Q3 2025, Robinhood reported: ^[13]

Net revenues: $1.27 billion, up about 100% year over year, and ahead of consensus estimates.
Net income: roughly $556 million, up more than 270% from the prior year.
Diluted EPS: $0.61 versus about $0.17 a year earlier and well above forecasts (MarketBeat cites a $0.41 consensus).
Net margin: just above 50%, with return on equity above 20%.

Operational metrics were equally impressive:

Funded customers rose to about 26.8 million, up 2.5 million year‑over‑year. ^[14]
Platform assets surged to roughly $330–340 billion, more than doubling versus 2024. ^[15]
Net deposits hit a record ~$20 billion in Q3 alone, with last‑twelve‑month deposit growth near 45%. ^[16]

Crucially, revenue is now well diversified:

Transaction‑based revenue was about $730 million in the quarter, driven by a huge rebound in crypto trading volumes (up more than 400% year over year).
Net interest revenue climbed to roughly $450 million as higher rates and margin lending kicked in.
The premium Robinhood Gold subscription base neared 4 million members, contributing meaningfully to recurring revenue. ^[17]

Management highlighted a “Rule of 40” score (growth plus margin) north of 130% over the last 12 months – a level more often associated with top‑tier software companies than retail brokerages. ^[18]

From Meme Stocks to Prediction Markets: Robinhood’s New Growth Engine

The biggest narrative shift around HOOD in late 2025 is its aggressive bet on prediction markets and derivatives.

1. LedgerX / MIAX deal and new exchange

In late November, Robinhood and Susquehanna International Group agreed to acquire a 90% stake in LedgerX, a regulated futures and options exchange now operated by Miami International Holdings (MIAX). MIAX will retain a 10% stake. ^[19]

At the same time, Robinhood is forming a joint venture with Susquehanna to launch a fully regulated futures and derivatives exchange and clearinghouse focused on prediction markets and event contracts. The JV will operate using the acquired CFTC‑licensed Designated Contract Market (DCM) and Derivatives Clearing Organization (DCO) frameworks, with operations expected to begin in 2026. ^[20]

Key points from recent coverage:

Robinhood will be the controlling partner and primary retail distributor for the new exchange. ^[21]
Prediction markets – contracts tied to outcomes like elections, macro data or sports – are already Robinhood’s fastest‑growing revenue line, with over 9 billion contracts traded by more than 1 million customers in the first year of launch. ^[22]
Analysts at Zacks and others see prediction markets as a structural growth pillar that could smooth the cyclicality of traditional trading and push annualized revenue for this segment toward the mid‑hundreds of millions over time. ^[23]

Following the announcement, HOOD briefly led the entire S&P 500, with the stock jumping more than 8–10% over a few sessions as investors cheered the deal. ^[24]

2. Broader product expansion

Prediction markets sit on top of a wider transformation of the Robinhood platform:

Crypto expansion: In June, Robinhood closed its $200 million acquisition of Bitstamp, gaining over 50 crypto licenses worldwide and a customer base spanning the EU, UK, US and Asia – its first major institutional‑grade crypto business. ^[25]
Canadian push: Robinhood agreed to acquire Canadian crypto firm WonderFi for about C$250 million (≈$179 million), adding the Bitbuy and Coinsquare exchanges as it deepens its presence in Canada. The deal is now expected to close in the first half of 2026 after a delay. ^[26]
New trading tools: Industry research highlights a growing suite of features including a generative‑AI assistant, advanced event contracts, personal banking features, and the Robinhood Legend active‑trading platform with futures, improved options tools and forthcoming short selling. ^[27]
Social investing: “Robinhood Social” aims to add a community layer with public profiles, live trade feeds and the ability to follow notable investors and politicians – effectively turning the app into a hybrid of trading platform and social network. ^[28]

Taken together, these moves show management’s intent to evolve from a U.S. commission‑free broker into a global, multi‑asset trading and banking ecosystem. Analysts have been quick to frame prediction markets and international crypto as the next major revenue legs after equities, options and interest income. ^[29]

Institutions vs. Insiders: Who’s Buying HOOD Now?

Big institutions step in

Alternative‑data platform Quiver Quant reports that in the latest quarter, 834 institutional investors added HOOD shares while 533 reduced positions. Major index and asset managers have moved decisively toward the long side: ^[30]

Vanguard, State Street and BlackRock all increased their holdings by 25–100%+, committing billions of dollars to the name. ^[31]
MarketBeat’s latest institutional snapshots show institutional ownership around 93%, indicating HOOD is now deeply embedded in mainstream portfolios rather than sitting on the fringes of retail speculation. ^[32]

Smaller advisors are also active. For example, Wealthedge Investment Advisors recently boosted its Robinhood stake by nearly 49% in Q2, while firms like LPL Financial and Avantax have also added. ^[33]

ARK Invest trims but stays bullish

Cathie Wood’s ARK Investment Management, one of Robinhood’s highest‑profile backers, cut its HOOD position by roughly 36% in Q3, lowering its stake to about 5 million shares. Even after the trim, Robinhood still represents about 4.3% of ARK’s disclosed portfolio and appears in lists of top ten ARK holdings to buy now. ^[34]

That combination – reduced exposure but continued top‑10 status – suggests position‑sizing discipline rather than a fundamental change of heart.

Heavy insider selling… with a twist

If institutions are mostly buying, insiders are mostly selling. The picture here is nuanced:

MarketBeat and Quiver data show 109 insider sale transactions versus just 1 purchase in the last six months, including sizable disposals by CEO Vlad Tenev, co‑founder Baiju Bhatt and multiple C‑suite executives. ^[35]
Over just one recent month, insiders sold more than $280 million worth of stock, with about 96% of that from Bhatt alone, according to a syndicated MarketBeat analysis that flagged the activity as a “moderately negative” signal. ^[36]
MarketBeat’s filings show insiders unloaded roughly 3.97 million shares worth over $500 million in the last 90 days, even after Q3 numbers beat expectations. ^[37]

Yet there is one notable exception: Director Christopher Payne bought about $2 million of HOOD shares earlier this year, the first significant open‑market insider purchase since the IPO, a move many commentators interpreted as a strong vote of confidence. ^[38]

Overall, insider activity leans clearly bearish in the short term, even as institutions and a minority of insiders continue to accumulate.

Analyst Ratings and HOOD Stock Forecast

Wall Street coverage of Robinhood has exploded alongside its market cap. Across major datasets, the message is broadly bullish – but there’s meaningful disagreement on how much upside is left.

Consensus ratings

MarketBeat: 23 analysts, with 14 Buys, 8 Holds and 1 Sell – overall “Moderate Buy”. ^[39]
TipRanks: 21 analysts over the last three months, also skewed toward Buy with a similar distribution (14 Buy, 6 Hold, 1 Sell). ^[40]
Zacks: Currently lists HOOD as a Rank #1 (Strong Buy), reflecting both momentum and earnings surprise strength. ^[41]

Price targets

Where analysts really diverge is on the 12‑month price target for HOOD stock:

MarketBeat: Average target $136.95, implying roughly low‑double‑digit upside from recent trading, with a high of $180 and a low of $47. ^[42]
StockAnalysis: Average target $119.62, actually below the current price, indicating some analysts think HOOD has outrun its near‑term fundamentals. High: $180, low: $47. ^[43]
TipRanks: Average target $151.63, indicating around 18% upside from about $128, with a high of $181 and a low of $68. ^[44]
Quiver Quant: Median target sits near $149, with big-name analysts like Citizens at $180, Mizuho at $172, Barclays at $168, Cantor Fitzgerald at $155 and Needham at $145. ^[45]

Put simply:

Analysts almost unanimously see Robinhood as an above‑market‑growth financial stock, but opinions range from “slightly overvalued” to “multi‑year compounder with big upside.”

For SEO‑minded readers, the headline summary is:

Most recent HOOD stock forecasts cluster between $120 and $155 over 12 months.
The bull case reaches as high as $180+, while the most pessimistic targets fall below $50, implying extreme downside if sentiment or regulation turn sharply against the business. ^[46]

Risk Factors: What Could Go Wrong for HOOD?

Even fans of Robinhood stock acknowledge that this is not a low‑risk, slow‑and‑steady compounder. Key risk themes show up repeatedly across analyst notes and news coverage.

1. Crypto and market‑volume dependence

Today’s selloff is a reminder that HOOD trades like a leveraged bet on risk appetite and crypto prices. When Bitcoin and high‑beta tech names stumble, Robinhood often drops faster than the broader indices. ^[47]

If:

Crypto volumes shrink,
Meme‑stock style trading cools, or
Volatility collapses,

then transaction‑based revenue and interest income (from margin) could both soften, pressuring earnings.

2. Regulatory and political risk

Robinhood’s core businesses – trading, crypto and now event‑based contracts – sit under intense regulatory scrutiny:

In 2024, analysts highlighted that expanding products like a credit card and futures trading platform would be essential for growth, but also warned that regulatory risk could cloud the near‑term outlook. ^[48]
In 2025, the U.S. SEC closed an investigation into Robinhood’s crypto arm without enforcement action, a positive signal but also a reminder of how quickly the regulatory climate can shift. ^[49]
Prediction markets themselves are a moving legal target – a federal court recently opened the door to regulated election betting, but agencies remain cautious. Robinhood’s aggressive push here is innovative, yet depends on regulators staying comfortable with event contracts. ^[50]

Any adverse ruling or renewed enforcement wave in trading, crypto or prediction markets could hit both operations and sentiment.

3. Valuation and execution risk

At current levels, Robinhood trades at:

A price‑to‑earnings multiple in the mid‑50s on trailing results. ^[51]
A 52‑week range of roughly $30 to $154, underscoring how much air can be under the stock if growth disappoints. ^[52]

To justify that valuation, Robinhood must:

Successfully integrate Bitstamp and WonderFi,
Launch and scale its own prediction‑market exchange,
Grow internationally while keeping compliance solid, and
Maintain high customer engagement even if markets calm down.

If revenue growth slows sharply from recent triple‑digit rates, the stock could see meaningful multiple compression.

4. Insider selling optics

While insider sales often reflect personal diversification rather than doom, the scale and concentration of Robinhood’s insider selling – particularly from the co‑founder and CEO – is hard for some investors to ignore. ^[53]

That’s partly offset by institutional buying and at least one large insider purchase, but it remains a talking point in bearish theses.

Is Robinhood Stock a Buy, Hold, or Watch in December 2025?

Whether HOOD is attractive right now depends heavily on your time horizon and risk tolerance, but today’s news and forecasts offer a clear framework:

Reasons bulls like HOOD here

Explosive fundamentals: Revenue and earnings are growing triple digits with strong margins, and customer and asset growth remain robust. ^[54]
Prediction‑market optionality: Robinhood is early in what could become a mainstream asset class, with a head start in user numbers and a coming in‑house exchange and clearinghouse. ^[55]
Global crypto footprint: Bitstamp and WonderFi give Robinhood international scale and institutional crypto exposure that many fintech peers lack. ^[56]
Index and institutional demand: S&P 500 inclusion and rising positions from mega‑asset‑managers create ongoing demand for HOOD shares. ^[57]

Reasons bears (and cautious investors) hesitate

Valuation is rich: Even supportive analysts acknowledge that the stock is expensive on standard metrics and heavily priced for continued high growth. ^[58]
Insider selling is intense: Multi‑hundred‑million‑dollar sales by founders and executives hang over the story. ^[59]
Macro sensitivity: HOOD is tied to risk assets and crypto cycles; today’s selloff shows how quickly sentiment can reverse. ^[60]
Regulatory overhang: Event contracts, crypto, and retail leverage are all favored themes for future regulation – and Robinhood sits at the crossroads of all three. ^[61]

Bottom Line

For December 2025, Robinhood sits at a crossroads:

It’s a high‑growth, high‑volatility S&P 500 fintech that has successfully expanded beyond meme stocks into crypto, banking and prediction markets.
Analysts mostly agree HOOD deserves a Buy or Moderate Buy rating but disagree sharply on how much further it can run from current levels. ^[62]
Today’s pullback looks more like a reflection of broader crypto risk‑off sentiment than a company‑specific blowup – but the same sensitivity cuts both ways when markets get frothy.

If you’re evaluating HOOD stock today, the key questions are:

Do you believe prediction markets and global crypto trading will keep growing – and that Robinhood will remain a top platform in both?
Are you comfortable owning a stock whose daily swings can be 5–7% in either direction?
How much weight do you put on heavy insider selling versus strong institutional inflows?

This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Consider your own objectives, risk tolerance and, ideally, consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.