Carvana (CVNA) Stock on December 1, 2025: UBS Buy Rating, Wedbush Upgrade and Q3 Earnings Fuel a High‑Risk Rally

Updated: December 1, 2025 – 11:20 a.m. ET

Carvana Co. (NYSE: CVNA) is back in the market’s spotlight. On December 1, 2025, UBS initiated coverage with a Buy rating and a $450 price target, adding to a wave of bullish analyst calls that followed Carvana’s record Q3 2025 results and massive multi‑year rebound. ^[1]

At the same time, valuation worries, subprime lending concerns and new competition from Amazon Autos are keeping skeptics vocal. ^[2]

This article pulls together the most important news, forecasts and analyses as of December 1, 2025, to help you understand where Carvana stock stands now and what could come next.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Always do your own research or consult a licensed financial adviser.

1. Where Carvana Stock Trades Today

As of late morning on December 1, 2025, Carvana stock trades around $375 per share: ^[3]

Last price: $375.01 (11:20 a.m. ET)
Move today: +0.14%
Market cap: ≈ $81.6 billion
52‑week range: $148.25 – $413.33
Performance:
- Year‑to‑date: +84%
- 1‑year: +46%
- 3‑year: ~4,500% (reflecting the rebound from the 2022–23 collapse)

On traditional valuation metrics, CVNA looks expensive: ^[4]

Trailing P/E: ~85x
Forward P/E: ~54x
Price / Sales: ~4.5x
EV / Sales: ~4.7x
Net margin: ≈ 3.4%
Operating margin: ≈ 9.5%
Beta: ~3.5 (very volatile)

Technically, the stock is in a strong uptrend:

Trades above its 50‑day and 200‑day moving averages
RSI ~63, suggesting positive momentum but not yet at classic overbought extremes
Short interest ≈ 8–9% of float, meaning bearish bets are still meaningful. ^[5]

2. Q3 2025: Record Growth and Profitability

Carvana’s current rally rests on a genuinely strong turnaround in its operations.

In its Q3 2025 earnings release (October 29), Carvana reported: ^[6]

Retail units sold: 155,941 (+44% year‑over‑year), an all‑time quarterly record
Revenue: $5.65 billion (+55% YoY), also a record
Net income: $263 million
Net margin: 4.7%
Adjusted EBITDA: $637 million
Adjusted EBITDA margin: 11.3%
GAAP operating income: $552 million (9.8% margin)

For the full year and beyond, management outlined an aggressive growth path: ^[7]

2025 outlook:
- Q4 retail units above 150,000
- Full‑year Adjusted EBITDA at or above the high end of its prior $2.0–$2.2 billion range
YTD through Q3 2025:
- Retail units: 433,119
- Revenue: $14.7 billion (+45% YoY)
Long‑term ambition: sell 3 million vehicles annually with ~13.5% Adjusted EBITDA margin over the next 5–10 years, helped by the integration of the ADESA auction business and expanded reconditioning capacity. ^[8]

These numbers underpin the bullish narrative that Carvana is no longer just a “story stock” but a scaled, profitable e‑commerce platform for used cars.

3. What Wall Street Is Saying Now

Consensus view: “Moderate Buy” with double‑digit upside

According to MarketBeat’s compilation of 24 Wall Street analysts covering Carvana in the last 12 months: ^[9]

Rating:Moderate Buy
- 18 Buy ratings
- 6 Hold ratings
Average 12‑month price target:$422.10
- High: $500
- Low: $275
- Implied upside vs. current price (~$375): ~12–13%

Finviz’s aggregated data show a very similar consensus target around $421–421, with a strong “Buy‑leaning” recommendation score. ^[10]

UBS: New Buy rating and $450 target (December 1, 2025)

On December 1, UBS initiated coverage of CVNA with a: ^[11]

Rating: Buy
Price target:$450 (about 20% above current levels)

Key points from UBS:

Carvana has a “differentiated, best‑in‑class online platform and customer experience” in a highly fragmented used‑vehicle market.
UBS estimates Carvana holds roughly 1.5% of the U.S. used‑vehicle market today but could reach ~4% by the end of the decade and ~8% over 10 years, consistent with its 3‑million‑units target.
UBS forecasts 2026–27 EBITDA roughly 5% above current Street consensus, supported by a 5‑year revenue CAGR around 28%.

Jefferies: Buy with a $475 target and strong October data

On November 25, Jefferies reiterated its Buy rating and $475 price target, citing continued momentum after Q3: ^[12]

Alternative data suggest 41% year‑over‑year growth in October retail units, nearly matching Q3’s 43–44% increase.
Jefferies believes Q4 could surprise to the upside if this growth pace holds.

Jefferies had already upgraded Carvana from Hold to Buy back on October 1, raising its target to $475 and helping ignite one of the stock’s big legs higher. ^[13]

Wedbush: Upgrade to Outperform, $400 target

In late November, Wedbush upgraded Carvana from Neutral to Outperform and increased its price target from $380 to $400, arguing that the prior selloff had gone too far. ^[14]

Wedbush’s thesis:

The recent pullback created a more attractive entry point given the company’s execution.
They now expect Carvana’s quarterly used‑unit volumes to overtake CarMax by 2026, as operational gains and vertical integration compound. ^[15]

Other recent analyst actions

Finviz and MarketBeat track a string of bullish calls this autumn: ^[16]

Deutsche Bank: Initiated coverage at Buy, PT ~$395 (Nov 21).
Barclays: Started at Overweight, PT ~$390 (Nov 12).
Needham: Reaffirmed Buy after Q3 results.
JPMorgan, RBC, Citi, Oppenheimer and others raised targets earlier in 2025 as the turnaround gained traction.

Across these notes, the recurring themes are:

Scale + vertical integration (including ADESA) as a durable competitive advantage.
Unit growth >40% even as the broader used‑car market stagnates.
Growing confidence in sustained profitability, not just a one‑off rebound.

4. Fresh Fundamental Analyses: Disruptor… or Just Expensive?

Two long‑form research pieces published on December 1 highlight the tension around CVNA.

Bullish: “Huge Retail Sales Growth and Substantial Market Share Gains”

A Seeking Alpha analysis argues that Carvana is a “major disruptor” in the used‑car industry: ^[17]

Carvana is delivering 40%+ unit growth in a U.S. used‑car market that is roughly flat.
With just ~1.5% penetration of the used‑car market, its national online platform has a long runway for share gains.
Q3’s 44% unit growth and record revenue underscore strong execution, especially as reconditioning capacity and logistics scale up.
The author maintains a Buy rating and positions CVNA as a top growth idea for 2026, and a way to diversify away from crowded “AI trade” stocks.

More cautious: “Reversal To Profitable Growth Remains Expensive”

A second Seeking Alpha article, also dated December 1, acknowledges the valid turnaround but stresses valuation risk: ^[18]

The market’s sharp sell‑off after Q3, triggered by a miss on Adjusted EBITDA versus some expectations, may have been overdone, especially given the stronger balance sheet and improving margins.
Still, at current levels the stock trades around 65–85x earnings and with YTD gross margins in the low‑20% range, which is rich relative to many high‑margin tech names.
The author points to a forward PEG below 1x (on non‑GAAP numbers), suggesting upside if earnings keep compounding at high double‑digit rates — but warns that a lot of that upside may already be pulled forward.
Elevated short interest (~7–9% of float) and extreme multi‑year gains make the risk‑reward “mixed” at today’s price.

“Is the Party Over?” – Valuation vs. history

An earlier analysis, summarized on Finviz, notes that Carvana’s Q3 EPS miss (EPS $1.03 vs. ~$1.30 expected) triggered a double‑digit sell‑off, even though sales and unit growth were record‑breaking and guidance improved. ^[19]

Interestingly, the article points out that while the forward P/E is very high versus the market, it is actually in the lower end of Carvana’s own 10‑year valuation band, implying the stock is “historically cheap” relative to its past multiples — not relative to other companies.

5. Algorithmic & Technical Forecasts: What the Models Say

While Wall Street analysts focus on fundamentals, several sites publish algorithmic and technical forecasts for CVNA.

CoinCodex: Slight near‑term downside, cautious long‑term

CoinCodex’s real‑time model (updated December 1) shows: ^[20]

Current price (reference): ~$374.47
30‑day forecast: drop of about 0.7% to ~$371.46 by December 30, 2025
1‑year forecast: ~–4.7% (price around $356.85)
2030 forecast: extremely low (~$6), effectively implying a long‑term collapse

The same page labels sentiment “Bullish” in the short term, with 16 green days out of the last 30 and volatility around 5.8%. But CoinCodex explicitly warns that these are model‑based estimates, not investment advice. ^[21]

Takeaway on models

Short‑term technical models are mildly cautious, seeing more sideways consolidation than a continued vertical melt‑up.
Long‑term algorithmic forecasts diverge wildly and should be treated as rough scenario generators, not precise targets.

Given how dramatically Carvana’s fundamentals and sentiment have changed since 2022–23, any model built heavily on historical price data should be taken with extra skepticism.

6. Institutional Flows, Insider Selling and Lending Concerns

Big funds are in — but some are taking profits

Two December 1 MarketBeat filings highlight notable institutional activity: ^[22]

North Peak Capital Management trimmed its CVNA stake by about 10.4% in Q2, but Carvana still makes up ~9.6% of its portfolio and remains its 6th‑largest holding (about 364,535 shares worth $122.8 million).
Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB publ cut its position by 13.9%, selling 4,826 shares and retaining 29,974 shares worth roughly $10.1 million.

These reports also highlight the broader ownership picture:

Institutional ownership: roughly 56–57%
Insider ownership: around 17%
Insider activity: about 366,000 shares sold last quarter (~$133.5 million), including sales by the CFO and a director. ^[23]

Heavy institutional ownership can be a sign of confidence in the long‑term story, but insider selling at these valuation levels also feeds the “take some profits” narrative.

“Buyer Beware”: Subprime lending under the microscope

A widely discussed MarketBeat piece, “Buyer Beware: Carvana Is Driving an Auto Lending Crisis” (Nov. 19), takes a sharply bearish view. ^[24]

Key points from that article (and the Hindenburg Research report it cites):

Carvana reportedly has a loan approval rate near 99%, with a minimum income requirement of just $10,000/year, well below the U.S. federal poverty level for a single‑person household.
The company can charge APRs up to ~28% on some loans.
Hindenburg alleges that:
- Over 44% of Carvana‑originated loans are nonprime, and more than 80% of those fall into deep subprime categories.
- Roughly 26% of Carvana’s gross profit comes from selling these loans to third parties.
- Subprime auto‑loan delinquencies are at or near all‑time highs, adding solvency risk if credit conditions worsen.

The article notes that while Carvana has beaten earnings expectations in 9 of the last 12 quarters, its high leverage, rich forward valuation and exposure to subprime borrowers could become serious headwinds if the credit cycle turns.

Carvana has previously defended its lending and securitization practices, but the combination of short seller scrutiny, elevated short interest and headline risk is an important part of the bear case. ^[25]

7. Competition Check: Amazon Autos, Ford and CarMax

Amazon Autos: Big name, but limited impact… for now

A recent MarketWatch feature — “Carvana survived a debt crunch. Can it survive Amazon?” — revisits the question of whether Amazon Autos will eventually crush pure‑play online dealers. ^[26]

Key ideas from that piece:

Amazon entered online car sales in 2024 and has since expanded from Hyundai into used‑vehicle deals with Hertz and Ford.
So far, Amazon’s auto business functions more like a lead‑generation platform for dealers than a fully integrated, end‑to‑end transaction experience.
By contrast, Carvana controls inventory, reconditioning, financing, logistics and the front‑end e‑commerce experience, which analysts view as a competitive moat.
For the next 1–3 years, most analysts interviewed do not see Amazon as an existential threat to Carvana, though they agree the risk rises over a longer horizon.

CarMax and the traditional dealers

At the same time, traditional used‑car retail is under pressure:

CarMax (KMX) has warned on used‑car demand and margins and recently parted ways with its CEO, signalling strategic turbulence. ^[27]
WardsAuto notes that Carvana is becoming “a formidable competitor versus franchised dealerships”, with 433,000 vehicles sold year‑to‑date through September and a clear trajectory toward 500,000+ retail units in 2025. ^[28]

In short, Carvana is gaining share in a tough market — but it’s doing so while taking on execution, credit and competitive risk that legacy dealers partly avoid.

8. Carvana Stock Forecast 2025–2026: A Balanced Scenario View

Putting the various forecasts and analyses together, here’s a high‑level, non‑personalized outlook.

Bull case (growth + margin story holds)

This is roughly the scenario implied by UBS, Jefferies and the more bullish Seeking Alpha analyses: ^[29]

Retail units continue to grow 30–40%+ per year into 2026.
Carvana executes on its plan to approach 580,000+ units in 2025 and keeps marching toward 1+ million vehicles later in the decade. ^[30]
Adjusted EBITDA stays in the double‑digit margin range, inching closer to the long‑term 13.5% target.
Credit conditions remain manageable, and subprime delinquencies do not spike enough to derail funding or demand. ^[31]
Amazon Autos and other platforms grow, but remain incremental, not existential, competition over the next few years. ^[32]

In this scenario, current valuation could be justified and analyst targets in the low‑ to mid‑$400s might be achievable, with upside if Carvana beats expectations again in Q4 and throughout 2026. ^[33]

Base case (growth strong, but multiple compresses)

A more neutral view — closer to the “expensive but improving” thesis — might look like this: ^[34]

Revenue and unit growth remain strong but gradually slow from the current 40–55% pace.
The market becomes less willing to pay >50x forward earnings as the “hyper‑rebound” narrative fades.
Credit metrics remain noisy; headline risk from short‑seller reports and regulatory attention persists.
The share price oscillates in a broad range, with double‑digit pullbacks followed by sharp recoveries.

Here, Carvana might grow into its valuation rather than extending the rally in a straight line.

Bear case (credit + competition + sentiment turn)

This scenario is closest to the Hindenburg/MarketBeat “Buyer Beware” angle and the GuruFocus piece about Carvana’s 9,000% rebound facing “judgment day”: ^[35]

Subprime auto delinquencies continue to rise, tightening funding for Carvana’s loan sales.
Regulators or rating agencies scrutinize its lending model, increasing costs or constraining growth.
Used‑car prices weaken further while Amazon Autos, large dealer groups and OEM‑backed platforms gain more traction. ^[36]
Investors decide the risk‑reward has flipped after a 4,500% three‑year run, leading to multiple compression and a potentially deep drawdown.

In this path, Carvana could still be a growing business, but the stock might re‑rate sharply lower, particularly if a recession hits or credit markets seize up.

9. Key Things for Investors to Watch Next

Regardless of your stance, several upcoming catalysts will likely shape CVNA’s next big move:

Q4 2025 earnings (early 2026)
- Can Carvana hit or exceed its >150k retail units and high‑end EBITDA guidance? ^[37]
- Any update on medium‑term margin goals and capital allocation (debt reduction vs. growth investments).
Credit quality data
- Trends in subprime auto delinquencies and charge‑offs across the industry. ^[38]
- Changes in funding spreads or securitization activity tied to Carvana’s loans.
Competitive moves
- How quickly Amazon Autos and other digital platforms expand beyond lead‑gen into full‑stack retail. ^[39]
- CarMax’s new leadership and strategic response, plus moves from other large dealer groups. ^[40]
Analyst and institutional behavior
- Further target hikes or downgrades after UBS’s initiation. ^[41]
- Whether insider selling continues at the current pace, and how big funds adjust their positions. ^[42]

10. Bottom Line

As of December 1, 2025, Carvana sits at the crossroads of a powerful turnaround story and a very demanding valuation:

The company has delivered record units, record revenue and real profitability, with ambitious guidance and a clear roadmap to 3 million annual vehicle sales. ^[43]
Wall Street is broadly bullish, with a Moderate Buy consensus and price targets clustered in the low‑to‑mid $400s. UBS, Jefferies, Wedbush and others see further upside. ^[44]
At the same time, credit‑risk skeptics, short sellers and some fundamental analysts warn that the combination of subprime exposure, leverage and high multiples may leave little room for error if the macro backdrop deteriorates. ^[45]

For investors, CVNA is best thought of as a high‑beta, high‑conviction bet on:

The continued migration of used‑car buying to fully online platforms, and
Carvana’s ability to manage credit risk, funding and competition better than its critics expect.

If you’re considering the stock, it’s crucial to weigh your risk tolerance, time horizon and exposure to other cyclical or high‑growth names before making any decision.

References