As December 2025 opens, Deere & Company (NYSE: DE) stock sits at the center of two very different stories:
- a near‑term hit from tariffs and a weaker‑than‑expected 2026 profit outlook, and
- a long‑term growth narrative built on precision agriculture, automation, and artificial intelligence.
Here’s a structured, news‑style look at everything investors are digesting as of December 1, 2025.
Deere & Company stock today: price, performance and valuation
As of the close on December 1, 2025, Deere shares trade around $472 per share, giving the company a market capitalization in the mid‑$120 billion range. [1]
Key valuation metrics:
- Trailing P/E: ~25x
- Forward P/E: around 27x
- Price‑to‑Sales (P/S): roughly 2.7–2.9x
- Price‑to‑Book (P/B): about 4.8–4.9x
- Dividend yield: about 1.4%, with a quarterly dividend near $1.62 per share. [2]
For context, multiple datasets put Deere’s current P/E near 25 and note that’s meaningfully above its long‑term median (around the high‑teens) and above many peers in the farm and heavy construction machinery industry. [3]
Despite the post‑earnings sell‑off, Deere shares remain up roughly low‑teens percentage year‑to‑date, modestly trailing the S&P 500 as of late November. [4]
Q4 2025 results: revenue up, profit down
On November 26, 2025, Deere reported results for its fiscal fourth quarter ended November 2. [5]
Headline numbers (Q4 FY 2025 vs. Q4 FY 2024):
- Total net sales & revenues:
- $12.39 billion vs. $11.14 billion, +11% year over year
- Net income attributable to Deere:
- $1.07 billion vs. $1.25 billion, ‑14%
- Diluted EPS:
- $3.93 vs. $4.55
For the full fiscal year 2025:
- Total net sales & revenues: $45.68 billion, down about 12% from $51.72 billion in 2024
- Net income:$5.03 billion, down 29% from $7.10 billion
- Diluted EPS:$18.50, down from $25.62 a year earlier [6]
Segment trends in Q4 underscore the mixed picture:
- Production & Precision Agriculture
- Net sales up 10% to $4.74 billion
- Segment operating profit down 8%, pressured by higher production costs and tariff impacts [7]
- Small Agriculture & Turf
- Sales up 7%, but operating profit plunged about 89% to just $25 million, reflecting heavy margin pressure [8]
- Construction & Forestry
- Sales surged 27% to $3.38 billion, with modest operating profit growth, making it a relative bright spot [9]
Zacks noted that while Deere’s Q4 EPS of $3.93 missed consensus by a few cents, revenue comfortably beat expectations—yet higher costs and tariffs drove a drop in profits and operating margins. [10]
2026 guidance reset: tariffs double and the large‑ag cycle hits bottom
The real shock for the market wasn’t Q4—it was Deere’s outlook for fiscal 2026.
In its guidance, Deere forecast net income of $4.0–$4.75 billion for 2026, well below analysts’ expectations around $5.2–$5.3 billion. [11]
At the same time, the company warned that tariff headwinds will roughly double:
- 2025 pre‑tax tariff impact: ~$600 million
- Expected 2026 pre‑tax tariff impact: ~$1.2 billion [12]
CEO John May described “ongoing margin pressures from tariffs” and “persistent challenges in the large ag sector,” adding that 2026 is expected to mark the bottom of the current large‑ag equipment cycle. [13]
Guidance by division for fiscal 2026 points to a shifting mix: [14]
- Production & Precision Agriculture: sales expected to decline 5–10%
- Small Agriculture & Turf: sales expected to grow around 10%
- Construction & Forestry: also seen up about 10%
Reuters highlighted that weaker margins on large tractors and combines, lower crop prices, and higher farming costs are pushing many farmers towards rentals and used equipment instead of new, high‑ticket machines. [15]
The combination of lower‑than‑expected 2026 profit guidance and a doubling of tariff costs triggered a roughly 4–6% one‑day drop in the stock on November 26, according to coverage from Investopedia and other outlets. [16]
How Wall Street has reacted: target cuts, but mostly bullish ratings
Since the earnings release, analysts have been busy recalibrating their models—but most still see upside in DE.
Fresh targets and ratings into December 1
Recent moves include: [17]
- DA Davidson (Dec 1, 2025)
- Rating: Strong Buy / Buy
- Price target:$580 (maintained)
- Oppenheimer (Nov 28)
- Rating: Buy / Outperform
- Price target: raised $512 → $531
- Truist Securities (Nov 28)
- Rating: Strong Buy
- Price target: raised $609 → $612
- RBC Capital (Nov 28 & subsequent notes)
- Rating: Outperform
- Price target:$542 → $541
- Evercore ISI (Nov 28)
- Rating: In‑Line / Hold
- Price target: cut $487 → $458
- J.P. Morgan (Oct 14)
- Rating: Neutral
- Price target:$480, down from $495
Across multiple aggregators, the 12‑month consensus price target for DE sits roughly in the $520–$530 range, with high estimates up to $612 and lows in the mid‑$440s. That implies about 10–12% upside from the ~$472 share price at the start of December. [18]
Consensus ratings skew positive:
- “Moderate Buy” or “Buy” on most major platforms
- Mix of Strong Buy / Buy calls from houses like Truist, DA Davidson and Oppenheimer
- A handful of Hold / In‑Line / Neutral ratings citing cycle risk and valuation
- Very few outright Sell calls [19]
In short, Wall Street still largely likes the franchise, but is resetting near‑term expectations to reflect a tougher 2026.
Institutional flows: rotation, not capitulation
Deere remains heavily institutionally owned—around three‑quarters of the float is held by institutional investors. [20]
Recent filings show mixed but active positioning:
- Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management modestly increased its stake in the second quarter, adding 1,894 shares and boosting its position by about 1.8%. [21]
- Grantham Mayo Van Otterloo & Co. (GMO) cut its holdings by 46%, selling 2,277 shares in the same period. [22]
- Boston Partners disclosed a new $303,000 position in Deere, while MarketBeat’s note on that filing also highlighted the more cautious Daiwa Capital Markets target cut to $530 with an “Outperform” rating. [23]
These moves point to rotation rather than a wholesale exit: some managers are trimming exposure into strength or due to macro concerns, while others are building positions on the pullback.
Forecasts and longer‑term earnings outlook
Beyond Deere’s own 2026 guidance, analyst models suggest a dip‑then‑rebound pattern in revenue and earnings. According to StockAnalysis’ aggregated forecasts: [24]
- Revenue is expected to fall further from $45.7B (FY 2025 actual) to about $41.2B in FY 2026 (‑9.9%), then rebound to ~$44.7B in FY 2027 (+8.5%).
- EPS is projected to rise from $18.50 (FY 2025 actual) to roughly $21.05 in FY 2026, and nearly $26.91 in FY 2027, as margins gradually recover.
An Intellectia analysis, referencing Deere’s longer‑term planning assumptions, notes a company outlook to 2028 of around $45.1B in revenue and $8.6B in earnings. That implies revenue roughly flat versus 2025, but earnings significantly higher, driven by mix shift towards small agriculture, turf and construction plus efficiency gains. [25]
These forecasts underscore the central debate:
- Bears worry that cyclical weakness, tariffs, and a rich multiple could compress returns if the cycle lasts longer than expected.
- Bulls argue that Deere is building a higher‑margin, software‑ and services‑rich business that could deliver structurally higher earnings once the current ag downturn bottoms out.
AI, autonomy and the precision agriculture story
While 2026 looks challenging, Deere continues to lean hard into artificial intelligence and automation, which many analysts see as the key to its long‑term upside.
A recent Invezz‑syndicated analysis outlined six ways AI could drive Deere stock higher in 2026 and beyond: [26]
- Precision agriculture (“See & Spray”)
- Computer‑vision systems distinguish crops from weeds, cutting herbicide use by up to two‑thirds and improving farmer ROI.
- Autonomous equipment
- Tractors and combines are being transformed into precision‑guided, self‑driving platforms, enabling Deere to command premium pricing.
- Satellite connectivity
- Deere is working on a 2026 initiative to connect ~1.5 million machines via satellite, enabling real‑time AI operations in areas with poor cellular coverage.
- Predictive maintenance & digital twins
- AI models monitor equipment health, reduce downtime, and expand recurring service and parts revenue.
- Plant‑by‑plant optimisation
- AI helps optimize inputs at the individual plant level, lifting yields and sustainability and strengthening Deere’s brand and pricing power.
- DeereAI responsible AI framework
- An internal platform with guardrails designed to manage regulatory and reputational risk.
On its own technology pages, Deere emphasizes AI that can “recognize a weed from a crop plant” and machines that can work day and night without an operator, positioning itself as a leader in AI‑powered agriculture. [27]
If this strategy plays out, Deere could gradually evolve from a cyclical, metal‑heavy OEM into a hybrid of equipment manufacturer, software platform, and data services provider—a shift that many bulls believe will justify today’s higher multiples over time.
Macro backdrop: tariffs, farm income and policy uncertainty
The macro environment for agriculture is a critical piece of the DE story.
- Tariffs: Deere now expects a $1.2B pre‑tax tariff hit in 2026, double 2025’s impact, primarily tied to U.S. trade policies that have raised the cost of imported components and materials. [28]
- Farm economics: Lower crop prices and higher input and financing costs are pressuring farmer cash flows, prompting deferrals of big‑ticket machinery purchases and greater reliance on rentals and used equipment. [29]
- Policy and disaster assistance: Sector commentary out of Washington has highlighted ongoing uncertainty around 2025–26 disaster assistance and farm support, which can influence farmers’ willingness to invest in new equipment. [30]
This backdrop helps explain why Deere’s near‑term guidance is cautious, even as it continues to invest heavily in technology and long‑term growth.
Valuation in context: quality at a premium
Putting it all together, Deere currently trades at: [31]
- ~25x trailing earnings and
- around 2.8–3.0x sales, with
- a dividend yield near 1.4% and
- strong returns on equity above 20%.
Historically, Deere’s P/E has often oscillated around the mid‑teens through the cycle, making today’s valuation look elevated versus its own history, but more reasonable if analyst expectations for EPS in the low‑20s by 2026 and high‑20s by 2027–2028 are met. [32]
Some analysts—such as Evercore ISI and J.P. Morgan—see this as reason for caution, especially given the 2026 guidance shock. Others, including Truist, Oppenheimer, DA Davidson and RBC, continue to highlight Deere’s technology leadership, dominant market position, and potential earnings inflection once the current ag downturn and tariff headwinds ease. [33]
What to watch next for DE stock
Going into 2026, key catalysts and risk factors for Deere investors include:
- Tariff and trade developments – Any renegotiation, rollback, or escalation of tariffs could materially alter Deere’s cost structure and profit outlook. [34]
- Crop prices and farm income – A rebound in commodity prices or improved farm profitability could pull forward demand for new equipment.
- Adoption of precision agriculture and autonomy – Evidence that AI‑driven tools like “See & Spray,” autonomous tractors, and satellite‑connected machines are boosting customer ROI at scale would support the long‑term growth thesis. [35]
- Regulatory and “right to repair” issues – Deere’s earnings release points to ongoing FTC and state‑level scrutiny around self‑repair capabilities as a risk worth monitoring. [36]
- Capital allocation – Dividend growth, buybacks, and investment levels in R&D and digital platforms will shape how much of the long‑term AI and automation opportunity reaches shareholders. [37]
Bottom line
As of December 1, 2025, Deere & Company sits at a cyclical and strategic crossroads:
- Near term, the stock is under pressure from weaker 2026 guidance, a doubling tariff bill, and a soft large‑ag equipment cycle, even after a strong Q4 revenue print. [38]
- Longer term, Deere is betting heavily on AI‑driven precision agriculture, autonomy, and connectivity, a strategy that many on Wall Street believe can deliver higher‑quality, more resilient earnings growth once the current downturn passes. [39]
With DE trading at a premium multiple, the market is clearly pricing in a lot of that long‑term promise—and the next year or two will be about whether Deere can navigate tariffs and the ag cycle without derailing that story.
This article is for informational and news purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Investors should do their own research or consult a qualified financial adviser before making investment decisions.
References
1. finance.yahoo.com, 2. finance.yahoo.com, 3. www.macrotrends.net, 4. www.investopedia.com, 5. www.deere.com, 6. www.deere.com, 7. www.deere.com, 8. www.deere.com, 9. www.deere.com, 10. www.nasdaq.com, 11. www.investopedia.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.investopedia.com, 14. www.investopedia.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.investopedia.com, 17. stockanalysis.com, 18. stockanalysis.com, 19. intellectia.ai, 20. stockanalysis.com, 21. www.marketbeat.com, 22. www.marketbeat.com, 23. www.marketbeat.com, 24. stockanalysis.com, 25. intellectia.ai, 26. cryptorank.io, 27. about.deere.com, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. www.reuters.com, 30. markets.financialcontent.com, 31. finance.yahoo.com, 32. stockanalysis.com, 33. stockanalysis.com, 34. www.reuters.com, 35. cryptorank.io, 36. www.deere.com, 37. www.deere.com, 38. www.reuters.com, 39. cryptorank.io
