Updated: December 1, 2025
Overview: MDB stock heads into a pivotal earnings day
MongoDB, Inc. (NASDAQ: MDB) reports its third‑quarter fiscal 2026 results after the U.S. market close on Monday, December 1, 2025. The company has already signaled that it expects to come in above the high end of its prior guidance for Q3 revenue, operating income and earnings per share (EPS), and investors will now get the final numbers later today. [1]
At the same time, MongoDB is undergoing a major leadership transition: long‑time CEO Dev Ittycheria has stepped down from his full‑time role after 11 years, with former Cloudflare executive Chirantan “CJ” Desai officially taking over as President and CEO on November 10, 2025. [2]
That combination—fresh leadership, a pre‑announced earnings beat, and a richly valued stock—makes today’s report one of the most consequential events for MDB stock in years.
MongoDB stock price and recent performance
As of the latest trading session on December 1, 2025, MongoDB shares trade around $333.61, giving the company an equity value of roughly $27 billion. [3]
A few key performance markers around the earnings date:
- Short‑term move: In recent sessions, MDB has drifted lower—one recent close saw the stock down about 1.65% at $326.27 while the S&P 500 rose, and the shares are roughly flat to slightly negative over the past month. [4]
- Year‑to‑date: Despite recent softness, MDB is up around the mid‑50% range year‑to‑date, following a powerful rally after strong earlier‑year results. [5]
- Six‑month run: Over the last six months, MongoDB has delivered roughly 80%+ returns at one point and traded near a 52‑week high around $385, before pulling back into the low‑330s. [6]
In short, MDB is still priced as a high‑growth, high‑expectation software name. That amplifies the stakes: even a “beat and raise” quarter that merely meets today’s lofty expectations could trigger volatility either way.
New CEO CJ Desai and the Q3 upside preannouncement
On November 3, MongoDB’s board announced a leadership transition:
- CJ Desai, formerly President of Product and Engineering at Cloudflare and a veteran of ServiceNow and Oracle, was appointed President and CEO effective November 10, 2025. [7]
- Dev Ittycheria retired from his full‑time operating role after 11 years but remains on the board and will advise Desai during the transition. [8]
At the same time, MongoDB said unaudited Q3 results would exceed the high end of its fiscal 2026 third‑quarter guidance for:
- Revenue
- Non‑GAAP income from operations
- Non‑GAAP EPS
Management credited “continued strength in Atlas,” MongoDB’s cloud database platform, for the outperformance. [9]
The stock initially jumped on that news—rallying intraday toward the mid‑$380s before settling lower—but the move has since faded as investors shift attention to what comes next: updated guidance under the new CEO and commentary on AI, competitive dynamics, and margins. [10]
What Wall Street expects from Q3 FY 2026
Even after the preannouncement, most public estimates still orbit around the company’s original guidance range.
Street consensus for Q3 (fiscal 2026, quarter ended Oct. 31, 2025)
Across several data providers, expectations line up roughly as follows:
- Revenue: about $591–$593 million, implying ~11–12% year‑over‑year growth
- Benzinga cites a consensus of ~$593.4 million. [11]
- Non‑GAAP EPS: around $0.79, down roughly 32% year‑over‑year from about $1.16 in the prior‑year Q3 as margins normalize and high‑margin license revenue declines. [12]
MongoDB’s own original Q3 guidance (before the preannouncement) called for: [13]
- Revenue of $587–$592 million
- Non‑GAAP income from operations of $66–$70 million
- Non‑GAAP EPS of $0.76–$0.79
Because management has now said it will top the high end of those ranges, the biggest questions for today’s call are:
- How large is the beat versus guidance and consensus?
- Does the company raise full‑year FY26 guidance, and by how much?
- What does CJ Desai signal about long‑term strategy, especially around AI workloads and partnerships?
Business fundamentals: Q1 and Q2 FY 2026 in review
To understand today’s setup, it’s useful to look back at how fiscal 2026 has gone so far.
Q1 FY 2026 (quarter ended April 30, 2025)
MongoDB’s first quarter of FY26 showed solid, broad‑based growth: [14]
- Total revenue:$549.0 million, up 22% year‑over‑year
- Atlas (cloud) revenue: up 26% year‑over‑year and 72% of total revenue
- Customer base: +2,600 customers in the quarter, bringing total customers to over 57,100
Management emphasized that Atlas continues to be the main growth engine and framed MongoDB as a key platform for “cloud‑native” and AI‑powered applications, while also authorizing additional share repurchases that brought total buyback authorization to $1 billion.
Q2 FY 2026 (quarter ended July 31, 2025)
The second quarter was even stronger and triggered a major re‑rating of MDB shares: [15]
- Total revenue:$591.4 million, up 24% year‑over‑year
- Atlas revenue: up 29% and now 74% of total revenue
- Customer adds: +2,800 in the quarter, for ~59,900 total customers
- Margins: GAAP gross margin around 71%, non‑GAAP ~74%
The company also raised full‑year FY26 guidance, calling for: [16]
- Revenue:$2.34–$2.36 billion
- Non‑GAAP income from operations:$321–$331 million
- Non‑GAAP EPS:$3.64–$3.73
Analyst commentary after Q2 repeatedly highlighted three positives:
- Faster‑than‑expected Atlas growth
- Better operating leverage and margins
- A strengthening narrative around MongoDB as a key database layer for AI‑driven applications [17]
That “monster” Q2 quarter is why expectations heading into Q3 are elevated—and why any sign of slowing Atlas growth or weaker guidance could weigh heavily on the stock.
Analyst ratings, price targets and valuation
Broadly bullish sell‑side sentiment
Most Wall Street analysts remain positive on MDB:
- TipRanks shows an average 12‑month price target of about $385 (high: $440, low: $305) based on 30 recent analysts, implying roughly 16% upside from the low‑330s share price. [18]
- StockAnalysis similarly lists a “Strong Buy” consensus from 36 analysts and an average target around the mid‑$350s, with a wide range from about $190 to $440. [19]
- QuiverQuant data shows 22 firms with buy‑equivalent ratings and zero sells over the last several months, with a median target of $375. [20]
Recent individual target moves ahead of earnings include: [21]
- Citigroup raising its target to $440 (Buy)
- Rosenblatt at $385 (Buy)
- BMO Capital and DA Davidson both at $415 with positive ratings
- RBC Capital at $405 (Outperform)
- Several firms reiterating Overweight/Buy ratings after the CEO announcement
There has been at least one more cautious note: MarketBeat highlights a recent downgrade to “Hold” from Wall Street Zen, reflecting concerns around valuation and volatility, even as many other shops stay bullish. [22]
Multiples and balance sheet
At current prices and trailing‑twelve‑month revenue of about $2.2 billion, MongoDB trades at: [23]
- Price‑to‑sales (P/S): ~12x
- Enterprise value to sales (EV/S): ~11.9x
Those are premium multiples even by high‑growth software standards, especially given the company is still GAAP unprofitable—Trefis estimates around $165 million in operating losses and $79 million in net losses over the last year. [24]
The balance sheet, however, is a clear positive:
- Current ratio: ~5.7, indicating strong short‑term liquidity
- Debt‑to‑equity: ~0.01, reflecting minimal leverage [25]
Put together, Wall Street largely sees MongoDB as a high‑quality, scarce asset in modern databases—but one where valuation leaves little room for disappointment.
Sentiment, options activity and big‑money flows
QuiverQuant’s pre‑earnings snapshot of activity around MDB points to a classic “high‑anticipation, high‑volatility” setup: [26]
- Social chatter: Conversations on X (Twitter) emphasize strong expected revenue growth driven by AI and enterprise demand, but also warn of big swings around the print.
- Options market: Surging options activity signals traders are bracing for a sharp move in either direction after the results.
- Insider trading: Over the last six months, insiders have logged 65 open‑market sales and zero purchases of MDB shares.
- Institutional flows: Large institutions such as T. Rowe Price, ValueAct, FMR and Morgan Stanley have added meaningful positions in recent quarters, even as some others have reduced exposure.
This split—heavy insider selling but robust institutional buying—is typical for a maturing high‑growth software name where employees are diversifying, while large asset managers continue to back the long‑term story.
Insider activity, leadership change and key risks
Dwight Merriman’s share sale
On November 12, 2025, company co‑founder and director Dwight A. Merriman sold 6,000 shares of MongoDB stock for roughly $2.23 million, at prices just above $372 per share. The trades were executed under a Rule 10b5‑1 plan, and Merriman still directly and indirectly holds well over 1.5 million shares through various entities. [27]
The sale came after an ~81% six‑month rally and near a 52‑week high, and doesn’t appear to signal a strategic shift—though it adds to the perception of steady insider monetization.
CEO transition risk
Desai’s appointment has generally been welcomed: he brings deep experience in cloud infrastructure, enterprise software and AI, and multiple analysts have suggested his background is well‑suited to MongoDB’s next growth phase. [28]
Still, leadership changes at high‑valuation software companies introduce uncertainty:
- Investors will scrutinize how closely Desai aligns with the existing product and go‑to‑market strategy.
- Any hint of a reset in long‑term growth targets or increased spending on AI initiatives could affect margin expectations.
Other key risks
- Premium valuation & earnings volatility
Trefis’ analysis of the last 20 earnings reports shows MongoDB often moves sharply after results, with median positive one‑day moves of ~19% and negative moves of ~11%. [29]
With the stock already pricing in strong growth, even a minor miss on Atlas growth or margin trajectory could trigger a sizeable pullback. - Slowing non‑Atlas revenue and mix shift
Management has guided for non‑Atlas subscription revenue to decline year‑over‑year as lower‑margin license revenue fades, while Atlas continues to grow in the mid‑20s percentage range. [30]
Although this mix shift is strategically sound, it can pressure gross margins and adds complexity to the growth story. - Competition in cloud databases and AI
MongoDB competes with hyperscaler offerings from Amazon, Microsoft and Google as well as legacy database vendors. The company is building an AI partner ecosystem—including integrations with frameworks such as LangChain and orchestration tools like Temporal—but it must prove it can monetize AI application workloads at scale. [31] - Macro and IT‑spending cycles
Like peers, MongoDB is exposed to enterprise budget tightening and longer deal cycles, particularly for larger, multi‑year cloud commitments.
What to watch on today’s Q3 earnings call
Given all of the above, investors and traders will likely focus on a few headline items tonight:
- Atlas growth and AI workloads
- Is Atlas still growing in the high‑20s percent range or better?
- How much of that is being explicitly driven by AI and new application workloads? [32]
- Updated FY26 guidance
- Does management raise full‑year revenue guidance beyond $2.36 billion?
- Is non‑GAAP EPS guidance nudged above the current $3.64–$3.73 band? [33]
- Desai’s strategic framing
- How does the new CEO talk about MongoDB’s role in AI, partnerships, and the balance between growth and profitability? [34]
- Margin trajectory and free cash flow
- After earlier quarters of margin outperformance, does MongoDB continue to demonstrate operating leverage, or does it reinvest more aggressively under the new leadership team? [35]
- Market reaction vs. historical patterns
- As Trefis notes, MDB’s post‑earnings moves have been roughly a coin flip between positive and negative over the last several years, but with very large swings in both directions. Event‑driven traders will be watching whether today’s reaction fits that pattern. [36]
Bottom line: MDB on December 1, 2025
Heading into its Q3 FY26 report on December 1, 2025, MongoDB stands at a crossroads:
- The fundamentals—24% year‑over‑year revenue growth last quarter, strong Atlas momentum, and raised full‑year guidance—are solid. [37]
- The company has a new CEO with deep cloud and AI credentials, and has preannounced a beat to its own Q3 guidance. [38]
- Wall Street remains bullish, with most firms rating the stock a Buy or equivalent and price targets clustered above the current share price. [39]
- But valuation is demanding, insiders have been frequent sellers, and history shows MDB can swing dramatically after earnings in either direction. [40]
For long‑term investors, today’s report will help answer a core question: Can MongoDB sustain mid‑20s revenue growth and expanding margins as it evolves into an AI‑era data platform under new leadership?
For short‑term traders, the setup is classic high‑volatility, high‑expectation event risk.
Either way, December 1, 2025 is likely to be a defining checkpoint for the MongoDB stock story.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any securities, or a solicitation of any investment strategy. Always do your own research or consult a licensed financial adviser before making investment decisions.
References
1. www.investopedia.com, 2. investors.mongodb.com, 3. www.trefis.com, 4. www.nasdaq.com, 5. www.investopedia.com, 6. www.investing.com, 7. investors.mongodb.com, 8. investors.mongodb.com, 9. investors.mongodb.com, 10. www.investors.com, 11. www.benzinga.com, 12. www.benzinga.com, 13. investors.mongodb.com, 14. investors.mongodb.com, 15. www.prnewswire.com, 16. investors.mongodb.com, 17. www.tikr.com, 18. www.tipranks.com, 19. stockanalysis.com, 20. www.quiverquant.com, 21. www.benzinga.com, 22. www.marketbeat.com, 23. www.trefis.com, 24. www.trefis.com, 25. site.financialmodelingprep.com, 26. www.quiverquant.com, 27. www.investing.com, 28. www.pymnts.com, 29. www.trefis.com, 30. www.linkedin.com, 31. site.financialmodelingprep.com, 32. www.prnewswire.com, 33. investors.mongodb.com, 34. www.mongodb.com, 35. investors.mongodb.com, 36. www.trefis.com, 37. www.prnewswire.com, 38. investors.mongodb.com, 39. www.tipranks.com, 40. site.financialmodelingprep.com
