Published: December 1, 2025
Lockheed Martin Corporation (NYSE: LMT) is starting December with a busy slate: an ex‑dividend date, a deep defense contract pipeline, and a fresh wave of analyst and institutional activity that’s shaping sentiment around the stock.
Below is a comprehensive look at Lockheed Martin’s share price today, the latest news and forecasts as of December 1, 2025, and how Wall Street currently views one of the world’s largest defense contractors.
- Lockheed Martin stock today: price, valuation and recent performance
As of late trading on December 1, 2025, Lockheed Martin shares are changing hands at about $443.09, down roughly $14.77 (around 3.2%) on the day. The stock has traded between $441.80 and $457.78 intraday, after opening at $453.28.
Over the past year, LMT has traded in a wide band, with a 52‑week low near $410 and a 52‑week high just under $530. At recent prices the company is valued at roughly $105–106 billion, with a trailing P/E around 25–26 and a P/E/G ratio near 1.7, reflecting a premium multiple for a slow‑to‑moderate growth, high‑cash‑flow business.
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Short‑term performance has been soft. According to Zacks, LMT shares are down about 6.9% over the last month, lagging both the S&P 500 (‑0.5%) and the broader aerospace & defense industry (‑4.9%).
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The drop on December 1 is happening on the stock’s ex‑dividend date, so part of the decline reflects the mechanical adjustment for the newly increased quarterly dividend (more on that below).
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- Dividend update: 23rd straight increase and ex‑dividend date today
Dividend news is one of the biggest headlines for Lockheed Martin right now:
The board authorized a fourth‑quarter 2025 dividend of $3.45 per share, up from $3.30 previously – a 5% increase.
This marks 23 consecutive years of dividend increases, placing LMT firmly in dividend‑growth territory.
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The dividend is payable December 30, 2025 to shareholders of record as of the close of business on December 1, 2025 – which is also the ex‑dividend date.
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At the current share price, the new dividend equates to an annualized payout of $13.80 per share and a forward dividend yield of roughly 3.0%.
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A fresh AI‑driven analysis from AInvest focuses on the market impact of the $3.45 dividend, noting that:
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Historically, LMT’s share price typically drops by about the dividend amount on the ex‑dividend date and then recovers quickly.
Backtests cited in that report suggest a 91% probability that the stock recovers the ex‑dividend drop within 15 trading days, and often much sooner.
Whether investors see this as a short‑term trading setup or just noise, the higher dividend is a clear signal that management remains confident in cash generation and long‑term defense demand.
- Q3 2025 results: strong backlog, solid cash flow, softer full‑year EPS
Lockheed Martin’s third‑quarter 2025 earnings, reported on October 21, continue to anchor fundamental views on the stock:
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Sales: $18.6 billion, up from $17.1 billion a year earlier (about 9% growth).
Net earnings: $1.6 billion, essentially flat year‑on‑year, with EPS of $6.95 vs. $6.80 in Q3 2024.
Cash from operations: $3.7 billion, up sharply from $2.4 billion.
Free cash flow: $3.3 billion vs. $2.1 billion a year ago.
Backlog: A record $179 billion, representing more than two and a half years of sales, according to CEO Jim Taiclet.
Capital returns remain aggressive. In Q3 alone, Lockheed:
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Paid $765 million in dividends
Repurchased 2.3 million shares for about $1.0 billion
Increased its share repurchase authorization by $2 billion to a total of about $9.1 billion
Updated 2025 outlook
Lockheed’s full‑year 2025 guidance calls for:
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Sales: roughly $74.25–$74.75 billion
Diluted EPS: about $22.15–$22.35
Free cash flow: around $6.6 billion
Zacks’ December 1 research note puts 2025 EPS consensus around $22.22 (‑22% year‑on‑year) and anticipates a rebound to $29.70 in 2026, an increase of about 34% versus 2025. It also projects revenue of $74.4 billion this year (+4.7%) and $77.6 billion next year (+4.3%).
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The bottom line: top‑line growth and cash flow look solid, while accounting items and program charges keep near‑term EPS growth subdued, with a stronger recovery expected further out.
- New defense contracts: F‑35 remains the center of gravity
Recent weeks have brought a wave of contract headlines that help explain why investors still see long‑term growth in LMT:
The Pentagon awarded Lockheed Martin roughly $12.5 billion for nearly 300 of the newest F‑35 Joint Strike Fighters, covering Lots 18 and 19 and expanding scope for additional airframes.
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Deliveries from these lots are slated to begin in 2026, spanning U.S. services, international partners and Foreign Military Sales customers.
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Despite this strong demand, the F‑35 program continues to face technology upgrade challenges:
A July Reuters report highlighted delays tied to the Technology Refresh 3 (TR‑3) upgrade, with Lockheed having delivered 72 F‑35 jets as of May 1 after several months of delay due to late software improvements.
The U.S. government has been withholding part of the payment per aircraft until TR‑3 milestones are met, although some of that withheld amount was reduced in January as progress improved.
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According to that same report, the F‑35 program accounts for about 30% of Lockheed’s revenue, reinforcing how central the fighter is to the investment case.
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An analysis from Quiver Quantitative adds that over the last year, Lockheed has recorded more than $27 billion in U.S. government contract award payments, spanning fighter jets, missiles, guided rockets and other defense systems.
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Taken together, the data supports a picture of robust, multi‑year defense demand, but also underscores execution risk on complex programs like the F‑35.
- Fresh research and forecasts as of December 1, 2025
Zacks: “Attracting Investor Attention” but rated Hold
A Zacks Equity Research note published on December 1, 2025 describes Lockheed Martin as one of the most searched stocks on its platform and emphasizes earnings estimate trends:
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Current quarter EPS estimate: $6.64, about 13% below the year‑ago quarter.
2025 EPS estimate: $22.22, down around 22% vs. last year, but inching only slightly lower (‑0.1%) over the last 30 days.
2026 EPS estimate: $29.70, implying a strong rebound of about 33–34%.
Revenue outlook: roughly 5% growth for the current quarter and mid‑single‑digit growth for 2025 and 2026.
Zacks assigns LMT a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) and a Value Style Score of “B”, indicating the shares trade at a modest discount to sector peers on its preferred valuation metrics, but no clear near‑term catalyst is identified for outperformance.
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MarketBeat and Quiver: consensus “Hold” and mid‑teens upside
MarketBeat’s latest compilation of Wall Street ratings (updated November 30, 2025) shows:
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Consensus rating: “Hold” from 25 research firms
1 Sell
15 Hold
7 Buy
2 Strong Buy
Average 12‑month price target: $515.50
Separately, Quiver’s aggregated data show a median price target of about $506.50 based on 10 recent analyst targets, with individual targets ranging from $480 to $630.
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Against today’s price near $443, those targets imply mid‑teens potential upside (roughly 14–16%), before factoring in the ~3% dividend yield.
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Recent rating actions include:
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Morgan Stanley – raised target to $630, rating Overweight
BNP Paribas Exane – initiated coverage with Outperform and a $550 target
Baird – Outperform, target $550
Truist – target lifted to $500, rating Hold
Bank of America – Neutral, target trimmed to $480
The overall message from the Street: solid business, strong backlog, but valuation and program risks justify a cautious stance, with upside largely tied to execution and budget trends.
- Social and options sentiment: a geopolitical hedge with debate
A November 29 Quiver Quantitative “DiscussionTracker” piece summarizes the tone on X (formerly Twitter) around LMT as “cautiously optimistic”:
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Many users see Lockheed as a beneficiary of rising global defense spending and geopolitical tensions, effectively a “geopolitical hedge” in portfolios.
Others highlight prior financial charges and F‑35 setbacks, pointing to earlier dips in the share price and debating whether recent price‑target hikes fully compensate for those risks.
Quiver also notes:
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Insider activity has been skewed toward selling, including a notable sale of 7,792 shares by the COO at an average price around $491 per share in late October.
Hedge fund flows are mixed, with some large funds substantially increasing positions (e.g., Citadel, Charles Schwab Investment Management) while others sharply reduced exposure (e.g., Marshall Wace, FMR).
This mosaic of data reinforces the idea that institutional sentiment is active but not one‑sided: Lockheed Martin is widely held, but investors are actively rebalancing around macro and program news.
- Institutional moves and ownership trends
New 13F‑style disclosures on December 1, 2025 offer a closer look at how individual institutions are positioning:
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Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Co. trimmed its LMT stake by 2.4% in Q2, selling 1,184 shares and ending with 48,447 shares worth about $22.4 million.
HSBC Holdings PLC reduced its holdings by 16.6%, selling 27,882 shares to hold about 140,068 shares valued near $64.8 million.
Lumbard & Kellner LLC moved the other way, increasing its position by 88.9%, buying 4,645 shares to reach 9,872 shares valued at roughly $4.6 million, making LMT about 2% of its portfolio.
Across the shareholder base, MarketBeat estimates that about 74% of outstanding shares are held by institutions and hedge funds, underlining the stock’s status as a core institutional holding in the defense space.
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- Key risks and catalysts to watch
Even as the backlog and dividend look reassuring, several risks and catalysts are front of mind for analysts following Lockheed Martin:
Program execution (especially F‑35 TR‑3).
Continued software and integration delays could delay deliveries, extend payment withholds and pressure margins, even with large new contracts in hand.
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Defense budget and geopolitics.
Lockheed is deeply tied to U.S. and allied defense spending. Any peace breakthrough or budget reset, particularly around the F‑35 buy profile and missile defense programs, could alter growth expectations. Recent sell‑offs in U.S. defense stocks after political hints at peace talks illustrate this sensitivity.
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Valuation versus growth.
With a mid‑20s P/E and only mid‑single‑digit revenue growth forecast in the near term, some analysts question how much future growth is already priced in, especially given the EPS dip expected in 2025 before a projected rebound.
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Capital allocation.
On the positive side, Lockheed’s combination of dividend growth, heavy buybacks and a large repurchase authorization could continue to support EPS and the share price, particularly if cash flows track guidance.
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- What it all means for LMT stock right now
Putting the latest news and forecasts together, the December 1, 2025 snapshot of Lockheed Martin looks like this:
Fundamentals: Strong revenue growth, robust cash generation and an unprecedented $179 billion backlog provide long‑term earnings visibility.
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Shareholder returns: A newly raised 3%‑ish dividend yield and an active buyback program underline management’s shareholder‑friendly stance.
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Near‑term pressure: 2025 EPS is expected to decline versus 2024, even as sales rise, reflecting program charges and investment – a key reason most rating agencies sit at “Hold” rather than “Strong Buy”.
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Valuation & expectations: With consensus price targets in the low‑to‑mid $500s and the stock around the mid‑$440s, Street models imply moderate upside plus the dividend, but not deep‑value pricing.
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For investors and traders following LMT on Google News or Discover, the key questions over the next few months will likely be:
Does management hit or beat its 2025 cash‑flow and EPS guidance?
Do F‑35 TR‑3 and other critical programs stay on track or produce new headlines?
Do defense budgets and geopolitical developments reinforce or undermine the current contract pipeline narrative?
As always, anyone considering the stock should treat this article as informational only, not investment advice, and should double‑check all figures and news against their broker or official filings before making trading decisions.
