Rigetti Computing (RGTI) Stock on December 1, 2025: Options Surge, Institutional Buying and a High‑Risk Quantum Roadmap

Rigetti Computing, Inc. (NASDAQ: RGTI) remains one of 2025’s wildest quantum computing stories. On December 1, 2025, the RGTI stock price trades around the mid‑$20s, far below its recent peaks but still massively above where it began the year, as traders digest fresh options activity, new institutional positions, insider selling and a very ambitious quantum hardware roadmap. ^[1]

For investors following quantum computing stocks, Rigetti now sits at the intersection of cutting‑edge physics and speculative growth investing: tiny revenues, huge losses, a big cash pile, and a valuation that prices in years of future success long before meaningful profits arrive. ^[2]

Where Rigetti Computing stock stands today

As of the close on December 1, 2025, Rigetti Computing stock finished at $24.19, after trading between $23.86 and $24.98 during the session. Intraday data shows the stock around $24.17 in late trading. ^[3]

Key price and valuation metrics:

YTD performance: RGTI is up roughly 55% year to date, handily beating the S&P 500’s returns in 2025. ^[4]
52‑week range: Approximately $2.42 to $58.15, underscoring the extreme volatility that has defined the stock’s move from penny‑stock territory to a multi‑billion‑dollar quantum bet. ^[5]
Market capitalization: Around $8.4 billion, versus trailing‑twelve‑month revenue in the low‑eight‑figure range at best. ^[6]
Ownership and short interest: Float of ~325 million shares, with insiders owning about 1.9%, institutions about 37.6%, and short interest near 15.9% of float, indicating a significant cohort betting against the stock. ^[7]

For context, a data set compiled by StockInvest shows Rigetti’s 52‑week range and market cap, while noting the next earnings date as March 4, 2026, highlighting how much of the near‑term narrative will be driven by anticipation rather than immediate results. ^[8]

December 1, 2025 news: Options fireworks and fresh institutional buying

Unusual options activity and volatility

On December 1, 2025, Rigetti options trading exploded onto the radar. A Benzinga options‑flow report flagged 10 “extraordinary” RGTI options trades, split evenly between calls and puts. Collectively, five puts represented about $149,000 in premium, while five calls totaled roughly $764,000, with most activity concentrated in a $20–$30 strike range over the past quarter. ^[9]

The same report notes:

Price around $23.87, down roughly 6–7% on the day at the time of publication.
RSI indicators suggesting the stock may be short‑term oversold.
“Big money” traders watching a $20–$30 price window. ^[10]

Separate flow data from The Fly, via TipRanks, earlier highlighted “mixed options sentiment” with:

Around 58,000 contracts traded.
A put/call ratio of 0.41 (calls leading puts).
Implied volatility (IV30) near 96.6, in the bottom quartile of the past year, implying an expected daily move of about $1.56.
A steepening put‑call skew, indicating increased demand for downside protection. ^[11]

Put together, the options tape shows a name with high volatility, heavy speculative interest, and active hedging, rather than a sleepy growth stock.

New institutional positions reported today

On the fundamental side, December 1 also brought new 13F‑type disclosure headlines:

Cetera Investment Advisers disclosed the purchase of 75,329 RGTI shares, pointing to continued interest from mid‑tier advisory firms in quantum computing exposure. ^[12]
A separate MarketBeat report notes that the Swiss National Bank now holds a Rigetti position worth about $6.48 million, representing over 546,000 shares. ^[13]
On November 30, Ensign Peak Advisors (a large institutional investor) reported buying 32,600 shares. ^[14]

StockTitan’s ownership summary corroborates that institutions collectively control roughly 38% of shares, with relatively modest insider ownership but notable short interest. ^[15]

The signal is mixed: institutional accumulation continues, but short sellers remain active and options traders are clearly split between upside speculation and downside hedging.

Insider selling from top executives

At the same time, insider selling has started to draw attention:

On November 21, 2025, Rigetti’s CFO Jeffrey Bertelsen sold 3,702 shares (~$98,000).
CTO David Rivas sold 41,935 shares, worth about $1.1 million. ^[16]

TipRanks’ AI analyst “Spark” currently assigns RGTI a Neutral stance, citing weak financial performance, ongoing losses and bearish technical momentum, even as the company touts strong technology progress. ^[17]

For investors, this combination—institutions adding, executives trimming, shorts elevated, options flows intense—underscores that sentiment is polarized and the stock is firmly in “trader’s market” territory.

Q3 2025 results: Tiny revenue, huge GAAP loss, and a long cash runway

Rigetti’s most recent financial update came with its Q3 2025 results, released on November 10–11.

Headline numbers:

Revenue:$1.9 million for Q3 2025, up about 5–6% sequentially from Q2, but down roughly 20–21% year over year. ^[18]
Operating loss: Around $20.5 million for the quarter. ^[19]
GAAP net loss: About $201 million, or –$0.62 per share, driven largely by non‑cash revaluation of warrant and earn‑out liabilities. ^[20]
Non‑GAAP net loss: Roughly $10.7 million, or –$0.03 per share, an improvement from a –$0.07 non‑GAAP loss per share a year earlier. ^[21]

Analysts had expected around $2.71 million in Q3 revenue, so the top line missed estimates, even though the adjusted EPS “beat” by a penny. ^[22]

A Motley Fool breakdown and other commentary emphasize that the intimidating $201 million GAAP loss is mostly accounting noise from derivative liabilities, with the non‑GAAP loss and cash runway being far more relevant to the investment case. ^[23]

Cash, dilution and runway

On the balance sheet, Rigetti looks much stronger than a year ago:

Q3 ended with $558.9 million in cash, cash equivalents and investments.
Subsequent warrant exercises added about $46.5 million, bringing cash to around $600 million as of early November. ^[24]
Earlier in 2025, Rigetti completed a $350 million at‑the‑market equity offering, materially diluting shareholders but eliminating near‑term going‑concern fears and funding multi‑year R&D plans. ^[25]

That cash pile is central to nearly every bullish analysis: Benzinga’s long‑form RGTI price‑prediction report explicitly frames the successful capital raise as a de‑risking event, giving Rigetti time to chase its roadmap without constantly worrying about financing. ^[26]

Of course, the flip side is that with Q3 revenue under $2 million and annual revenue forecast around $8.3 million, investors are effectively paying venture‑capital‑style multiples for a still‑pre‑commercial quantum platform. ^[27]

Technology roadmap: From 36‑qubit milestones to 1,000+ qubits

If the income statement is underwhelming, the technology story is what keeps RGTI stock in the headlines.

In Q2 and Q3 2025, Rigetti highlighted several major milestones:

Cepheus‑1‑36Q: A 36‑qubit multi‑chip quantum computer based on four 9‑qubit chiplets, achieving ~99.5% median two‑qubit gate fidelity, effectively halving error rates versus its previous 84‑qubit Ankaa‑3 system. ^[28]
Near‑term roadmap: Rigetti reiterates plans to deliver a 100+‑qubit chiplet‑based system with ~99.5% median two‑qubit fidelity by the end of 2025, then a 150+‑qubit system in late 2026 and a 1,000+‑qubit system by late 2027, with further fidelity improvements. ^[29]

On the commercial side, Rigetti has begun moving beyond purely cloud‑accessible systems into on‑premises deployments and hardware sales:

Two Novera 9‑qubit systems sold for a combined $5.7 million, one to an Asian technology manufacturer and one to a California applied‑physics and AI startup, with delivery expected in H1 2026. ^[30]
A $5.8 million, three‑year contract from the U.S. Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL) (with Dutch startup QphoX) to advance superconducting quantum networking via microwave‑to‑optical transduction—key infrastructure for future quantum networks. ^[31]

Rigetti has also announced a series of partnerships designed to broaden its ecosystem footprint:

An MoU with India’s Centre for Development of Advanced Computing (C‑DAC) to co‑develop hybrid quantum‑classical systems and applications, aligned with India’s national quantum initiatives. ^[32]
A collaboration with Montana State University (MSU), whose QCORE facility now hosts an on‑premises Novera 9‑qubit system—making MSU the first academic institution to operate its own Rigetti quantum computer. ^[33]
Plans to open an Italian subsidiary as a beachhead into Europe’s growing quantum research funding programs. ^[34]
Integration with NVIDIA’s NVQLink platform to link AI supercomputers with Rigetti QPUs, a move that 24/7 Wall St calls out as part of Nvidia’s broader push into quantum computing. ^[35]

This roadmap explains why some analysts and commentators see RGTI as one of the “big three” pure‑play quantum computing stocks, alongside IonQ and D‑Wave, despite its much smaller revenue base. ^[36]

Wall Street’s RGTI stock forecast: Wide targets, bullish tilt

Price targets and ratings

Different data providers show slightly different analyst counts, but the story is consistent: Wall Street is broadly positive, with wide disagreement on fair value.

StockAnalysis.com:
- 5 analysts cover RGTI.
- Consensus rating: “Strong Buy.”
- Average 12‑month price target: $24, implying a slight markdown versus today’s price.
- Target range: $12 (low) to $40 (high), a spread that reflects the binary nature of the thesis. ^[37]
MarketBeat:
- 7 analysts tracked.
- Consensus rating: “Moderate Buy.”
- Average target: $25.43, representing about 5% upside from recent levels, with a $12–$40 range. ^[38]
Public.com:
- Aggregates 5 analysts with a consensus “Buy” rating and a 2025 price target around $24, again very close to the current price. ^[39]

Looking at individual analysts:

Benchmark’s David Williams maintains a Strong Buy, trimming his target from $50 to $40, still implying more than 60% upside. ^[40]
B. Riley’s Craig Ellis recently downgraded RGTI from Strong Buy to Hold, cutting his target from $42 to $35 after Q3, still a sizable premium to current levels but a clear signal of caution. ^[41]
Earlier in 2025, Needham and Cantor Fitzgerald set targets in the $15–$18 range, highlighting how opinions diverge on how much upside is left after this year’s massive run. ^[42]

Revenue and EPS expectations

Consensus forecasts compiled by StockAnalysis paint a picture of near‑term revenue contraction followed by a sharp rebound:

2025 revenue: Around $8.3 million, down about 23% from ~$10.8 million in 2024.
2026 revenue: Around $21.9 million, implying ~164% growth if Rigetti executes on system deliveries and new contracts. ^[43]

EPS expectations remain negative, but losses are expected to narrow:

2025 EPS (avg forecast): –$0.22, a big improvement from –$1.09 in 2024.
2026 EPS (avg forecast): –$0.19, still in the red but trending toward smaller losses. ^[44]

Those numbers underscore the core tension: huge valuation versus tiny current revenue and years of forecasted losses.

Quant and long‑term model forecasts

Benzinga’s deep‑dive price‑prediction article, which synthesizes model‑based forecasts (including CoinCodex), gives a more probabilistic look at potential outcomes: ^[45]

2025:
- Bullish scenario: $26.76
- Average scenario: $23.07
- Bear scenario: $20.23
2026:
- Bullish: $38.44
- Average: $25.19
- Bear: $17.93
2030:
- Bullish: $61.15
- Average: $47.61
- Bear: $40.25

These models generally assume modest near‑term moves with larger potential upside further out, conditional on quantum computing adoption and Rigetti’s ability to execute on its roadmap.

Valuation: a quantum‑grade premium

Even by high‑growth tech standards, Rigetti’s valuation is extreme.

Using StockTitan’s market‑cap figure (~$8.4 billion) and Street revenue forecasts (~$8.3 million for 2025 and $21.9 million for 2026), RGTI trades at roughly:

~1,000× 2025 sales
~380× 2026 sales ^[46]

CoinCentral’s analysis similarly highlights a price‑to‑book ratio around 9.8×, well above an already‑elevated industry average, and classifies the stock as “very high risk” with wide daily price swings. ^[47]

A 24/7 Wall St note bluntly warns that after a run from about $1.25 to nearly $58 in 12 months, Rigetti’s share price shows all the hallmarks of a bubble that may be deflating before the business has matured, especially given Q3’s revenue miss. ^[48]

For investors, that means most of today’s valuation reflects expectations for 2027–2030 and beyond, not what the company earns today or is forecast to earn in the next two years.

Sentiment split: Bull vs. bear views on RGTI stock

The bull case for Rigetti Computing

Supporters of RGTI stock typically highlight:

Category leadership and full‑stack approach
Rigetti builds the superconducting qubits, control electronics and cloud platform, positioning itself as an integrated “full‑stack” quantum provider rather than a pure hardware or software play. ^[49]
Proven ability to raise capital
The completed $350 million equity offering and follow‑on warrant exercises pushed total cash to roughly $600 million, giving Rigetti several years of R&D and commercial runway. ^[50]
Ambitious but concrete roadmap
The clear plan from 36 qubits to 100+, 150+ and 1,000+ qubits with specific fidelity targets appeals to investors looking for measurable milestones. ^[51]
Growing ecosystem and partnerships
Government contracts (AFRL), cloud and AI ties (NVIDIA NVQLink), and academic/industrial partners (C‑DAC, MSU, an Italian subsidiary) hint at genuine demand for Rigetti’s platform beyond hype. ^[52]
Street targets with substantial upside tails
High‑end analyst targets in the $35–$50 range suggest that if Rigetti executes and quantum demand scales, the stock could still appreciate significantly from current levels. ^[53]

The bear case for RGTI

Skeptics, including several recent articles, counter with:

Revenues are tiny and shrinking in 2025
With Q3 2025 revenue at $1.9 million and consensus calling for full‑year revenue below 2024, Rigetti is still very far from any meaningful scale. ^[54]
Persistent, large losses
Even on a non‑GAAP basis, Rigetti is losing tens of millions of dollars annually, with no clear timeline to profitability. The GAAP loss profile is even more dramatic. ^[55]
Bubble‑like price action and speculative flows
A 24/7 Wall St analysis characterizes the move from low single digits to high double digits (and partial retracement) as classic bubble behavior, warning that even after pullbacks the stock is “vulnerable” to a much deeper correction. ^[56]
Intense competition
Rigetti competes against IBM, Google, IonQ, D‑Wave and others, all chasing different quantum modalities with deep pockets and strong ecosystems. Several reports underline that IonQ, in particular, is widely viewed as the current industry leader by market cap and revenue growth. ^[57]
Insider selling and mixed quant signals
CFO and CTO stock sales, elevated short interest, options skew favoring downside protection, and a TipRanks AI “Neutral” rating all reinforce concerns that the risk/reward is skewed to the downside at current levels. ^[58]

What to watch next if you follow RGTI stock

For investors tracking Rigetti Computing into 2026, a few checkpoints are especially important:

Delivery of the 100+‑qubit system
Confirmation that Rigetti can launch a 100+‑qubit, high‑fidelity chiplet‑based system by the end of 2025 will be a key proof point for its architecture and for its claims about halving error rates. Delays here would likely hit sentiment hard. ^[59]
Conversion of contracts into recurring revenue
Watch how quickly the $5.7 million Novera system orders and the $5.8 million AFRL contract show up in reported revenue and whether new deals extend that trend. ^[60]
Cash burn and dilution
With ~$600 million in cash, Rigetti has room—but not unlimited room—to burn cash. Monitoring quarterly operating losses versus R&D progress will be critical, as will any hints of further equity raises. ^[61]
Competition and ecosystem developments
Any major announcements from IonQ, D‑Wave or large incumbents (IBM, Alphabet, Microsoft, AWS) around quantum advantage, commercial deployments or new funding could shift how investors value Rigetti’s technology roadmap. ^[62]
Next earnings and guidance
The next scheduled earnings report in early March 2026 will give an updated view of contract backlog, revenue trajectory and how management is balancing aggressive R&D with capital discipline. ^[63]

Bottom line: A speculative quantum moonshot, not a conventional growth stock

Rigetti Computing stock remains a high‑beta, high‑risk quantum computing play. On December 1, 2025, the shares sit in the mid‑$20s, supported by fresh institutional interest, heavy options trading and a long‑dated roadmap that could, in a best‑case scenario, deliver scalable 1,000+‑qubit systems by 2027. ^[64]

At the same time, revenues are small and currently shrinking, losses are large, valuation multiples are eye‑watering, insiders are selling some stock, and sophisticated traders are actively hedging downside. ^[65]

For diversified investors, RGTI may make sense—if at all—as a small, speculative satellite position within a broader portfolio, sized with the assumption that sharp drawdowns are not just possible but likely. Anyone considering Rigetti Computing stock should be prepared for extreme volatility, long timelines and the very real possibility that quantum’s commercial payoff arrives later—or with different winners—than the market currently expects.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Always do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before making investment decisions.