Mondelez International, Inc. (NASDAQ: MDLZ), the maker of Oreo, Cadbury, Toblerone and Ritz, is back in focus on December 1, 2025 after a year of guidance cuts, cocoa-driven margin pressure and fresh questions about demand — but also growing evidence the stock may now be undervalued.
Below is a structured rundown of today’s price action, the newest headlines, Wall Street forecasts and long‑term projections to help you understand where MDLZ stands right now.
MDLZ stock price on December 1, 2025
As of late trading on December 1, 2025, Mondelez shares trade around $56.50, down roughly 2% on the day, with an intraday range of about $56.07–$57.60 and volume near 7.5 million shares.
At this level:
- Market cap is about $74 billion. [1]
- The shares are down roughly 16% over the past 12 months, as investors digest weaker guidance and softer volumes. [2]
- MDLZ trades in a 52‑week range of $53.95–$71.15 with a P/E ratio around 21–22x and a beta near 0.4, underscoring its defensive, lower‑volatility profile versus the broader market. [3]
In other words, this is still a large, steady, defensive consumer staple — just currently out of favor.
Fresh headlines moving Mondelez on December 1, 2025
1. Big institutional investors are repositioning
Two MarketBeat filings dated December 1, 2025 show that institutions are reshuffling positions rather than abandoning the name:
- West Family Investments Inc. boosted its stake by 164.1%, adding 5,934 shares to reach 9,551 shares worth about $644,000. [4]
- The New York State Common Retirement Fund trimmed its position by about 4%, selling 64,988 shares and ending the quarter with 1.58 million shares worth approximately $106.6 million (about 0.12% of the company). [5]
Across the shareholder base, institutional ownership stands at roughly 78%, with Norges Bank, Schroders and other asset managers holding sizable stakes. [6]
This mix of selective selling and fresh buying suggests professional investors are fine‑tuning their exposure rather than making a wholesale exit.
2. Limited RITZ recall in eight U.S. states
On November 28, 2025, Mondelez announced a limited voluntary recall of 70 cases of 27.6 oz RITZ Peanut Butter Cracker Sandwiches in eight U.S. states (NY, NJ, PA, GA, AR, MO, OK and AL). [7]
Key points:
- Some individually wrapped packs inside correctly labeled outer cartons may be mislabeled as Cheese while actually containing Peanut Butter.
- The risk is primarily for people with peanut allergies; no illnesses have been reported. [8]
- The recall covers a single SKU and specific date codes and is being conducted with the knowledge of the FDA. [9]
Financially, this looks operationally minor (70 cases is tiny for a global giant), but it underscores ongoing regulatory and brand‑reputation risk, which investors always need to watch in packaged foods.
3. Brand‑building: Big Game ads and Biscoff’s India push
Despite the near‑term margin squeeze, Mondelez is still spending to keep its brands front‑of‑mind:
- RITZ Big Game return (2026):
A November 19, 2025 press release confirmed that Ritz will run a 30‑second ad during the 2026 Big Game (Feb. 8, 2026) and launch limited‑edition football‑shaped crackers available in stores from December 1, 2025. [10] - Lotus Biscoff launch in India:
On December 1, 2025 Mondelez launched Lotus Biscoff® in India with a large integrated “Welcome to the Biscoff Feeling” campaign, featuring immersive events, influencers and multi‑channel media support. [11]
These moves reinforce the long‑term brand and geographic expansion story, especially in emerging markets like India, even as near‑term profitability takes a hit.
Earnings check: Q3 2025 recap and guidance cut
Mondelez’s Q3 2025 numbers and updated outlook are central to why the stock has de‑rated this year.
According to company and earnings‑news summaries: [12]
- Net revenues rose 5.9% year‑on‑year;
- Organic net revenue grew 3.4%, but volume/mix fell by about 4.6 percentage points, showing that higher prices are still weighing on demand; [13]
- Diluted EPS came in around $0.57, down ~9.5% vs. last year; adjusted EPS of $0.73 fell more than 20% in constant currency; [14]
- Adjusted gross margin compressed sharply due to record cocoa prices, with more than 10 percentage points of margin erosion reported in some measures. [15]
Crucially, Mondelez also cut its 2025 outlook again:
- Now expects organic net revenue growth “4%+”, down from about 5%;
- Expects 2025 adjusted EPS to fall about 15%, versus its earlier forecast of a 10% decline;
- Still guides to free cash flow of $3+ billion for 2025. [16]
Reuters highlighted that volumes in Europe fell 7.5 percentage points and 1.8 points in North America, as consumers balked at higher prices and turned to cheaper alternatives. [17]
In short: pricing is still doing the heavy lifting, but elasticity and cocoa costs are biting harder than management (and investors) hoped.
Dividend, buybacks and shareholder yield
Even in a tougher year, Mondelez remains aggressively shareholder‑friendly:
- The company pays a quarterly dividend of $0.50 per share, or $2.00 annually, implying a forward yield around 3.4–3.6% at current prices. [18]
- The current payout ratio is about 70–72% of earnings, elevated but still manageable for a mature staple. [19]
- Mondelez has raised its dividend for 11 consecutive years, and total shareholder yield (dividends + buybacks) sits above 6%, helped by ongoing repurchases. [20]
- A $9 billion share repurchase authorization announced in December 2024 is still in effect, signaling confidence in long‑term cash generation. [21]
For income‑oriented investors, that 3.5% yield plus buybacks is one of the more attractive aspects of MDLZ at today’s price.
How Wall Street views Mondelez stock right now
Despite the guidance cut, analyst sentiment remains broadly positive, though less euphoric than in 2023–2024.
- MarketBeat reports a “Moderate Buy” consensus from 22 analysts (14 Buys, 7 Holds, 1 Sell) with an average 12‑month price target around $68.3 per share. [22]
- From today’s ~$56.5 share price, that implies roughly 21% upside over the next year. [23]
- A Nasdaq/Fintel summary puts the average one‑year target closer to $70.1, with a range from $62.1 to $88.2, implying upside in the mid‑20% range based on mid‑November prices. [24]
- GuruFocus aggregates 27 analysts with an average target of $68.70 and a high of $84, again implying about 21% upside, and calculates a one‑year “fair value” (GF Value) near $81.9, or ≈45% above current levels. [25]
- StockAnalysis, looking at 18 analysts, shows a “Buy” consensus with an average price target of $68.78 (range $60–$84), forecasting about 20–21% upside. [26]
- TickerNerd, using 39 Wall Street analysts, calls MDLZ a “Strong Buy” (score 8.4/10) with a median target of $70, or about 23–24% above the current share price. [27]
At the margin, some brokers have been trimming targets after the Q3 guidance cut:
- Piper Sandler recently maintained a Neutral rating but lowered its target from $63 to $62. [28]
- Other houses (Bank of America, Barclays, DA Davidson, Wells Fargo) have also shaved their targets, but most still rate the stock Buy/Overweight/Outperform. [29]
Takeaway: Street models now embed lower near‑term earnings, but still expect MDLZ to grind higher over the next 12 months.
Valuation: Is Mondelez stock cheap after the pullback?
From a fundamental and DCF angle, several research services argue Mondelez now looks undervalued:
- Simply Wall St’s December 1, 2025 note estimates an intrinsic value around $113.95 per share, implying MDLZ trades at about a 49–50% discount to their DCF‑based fair value. [30]
- The same analysis notes that shares are down about 8.7% over the past year and 3.2% year‑to‑date, even though the stock is roughly flat over the past week. [31]
- GuruFocus’s GF Value model, based on historical multiples and growth estimates, pegs fair value around $81.9, also pointing to >40% upside from today’s price. [32]
On traditional multiples:
- MDLZ’s P/E in the low 20s is not “deep value,” but it’s meaningfully cheaper than when cocoa inflation first hit, and roughly in line with other high‑quality global snack peers. [33]
- The 3.5% dividend yield is comfortably above its 5‑year average (~2.3–2.4%), suggesting the market is pricing in a risk premium for prolonged earnings pressure. [34]
So while nobody should expect a bargain‑bin valuation for a dominant snack franchise, current pricing does look more reasonable, even attractive, for long‑term holders who believe cocoa and volume pressures will normalize.
Longer‑term forecasts: 2026–2030 outlook
Beyond the next year, both fundamental and algorithmic models point to moderate, compounding upside — with big caveats.
Wall Street style long‑term estimates
- A TIKR‑based guided valuation model suggests MDLZ could be worth around $79 per share by 2027, implying roughly high‑20% upside from recent levels (about 11% annualized). [35]
- Benzinga’s 2026 scenario analysis outlines a bullish target around $66.5, a base case near $61.5 and a bearish scenario near $53.8, reflecting both the potential for margin recovery and the risk of continued volatility. [36]
- Public.com’s forecast page shows a 2025 price target around $69, broadly in line with other one‑year targets. [37]
Algorithmic / technical forecasts
Algorithm‑driven sites don’t look at the business in detail, but they give a sense of what quantitative models expect if current trends persist:
- CoinCodex projects MDLZ could reach about $64.15 by the end of 2025 (≈11% above current levels) and around $62.8 by 2030, implying modest single‑digit annualized returns. [38]
- WalletInvestor is more muted, calling MDLZ “not so good” as a one‑year investment but still forecasting a price in the high‑50s by 2030, only slightly above today’s price. [39]
- StockScan is much more bullish, modeling an average price near $81 in 2026 and $86 in 2027, which would represent 40–50% upside versus today. [40]
Important: these automated forecasts do not account for future strategic decisions, unforeseen shocks, regulation or major changes in cocoa prices, so they should be treated as rough scenario tools, not guarantees.
Key risks for MDLZ investors to watch
Even if the stock looks cheaper, several real risks remain:
- Cocoa and commodity inflation
- Cocoa prices surged through 2024–2025, severely pressuring Mondelez’s gross margins, particularly in chocolate. [41]
- If cocoa stays elevated or spikes again, margin recovery could be slower than analysts currently model.
- Demand elasticity and competition
- Volumes in Europe and North America have fallen as price‑sensitive consumers trade down or buy less. [42]
- Competitors offering lower prices or “healthier” snacks could keep pressure on MDLZ’s growth in mature markets.
- Regulatory and recall risk
- The recent RITZ recall, although small, highlights operational and labeling risks that can damage consumer trust and lead to added costs. [43]
- Ongoing litigation or scrutiny (for example, over packaging or labeling) can also create headline risk.
- FX and emerging‑market volatility
- Mondelez generates a large share of revenue outside the U.S., so currency swings and local macro issues can boost or depress reported results, independent of underlying demand. [44]
Is Mondelez (MDLZ) stock a buy, sell or hold right now?
Putting all of this together as of December 1, 2025:
Positives
- Global portfolio of iconic brands (Oreo, Cadbury, Toblerone, Ritz, Sour Patch Kids, Lotus Biscoff) with strong competitive moats. [45]
- Resilient top‑line growth even in a tough year (mid‑single‑digit organic revenue growth in 2025). [46]
- Attractive 3.5% dividend yield, a long history of dividend growth, and an active buyback program delivering total shareholder yield above 6%. [47]
- Consensus across most fundamental analysts that the stock is undervalued, with ≈20–25% upside in standard 12‑month scenarios and even higher upside in some DCF models. [48]
Challenges
- Earnings are under real pressure in 2025, with adjusted EPS expected to fall around 15%, not just grow more slowly. [49]
- Consumers are increasingly price‑sensitive, and volumes could remain soft if disposable incomes stay squeezed. [50]
- The valuation, while cheaper, is not distressed; much of the upside case depends on margin recovery and normalization in cocoa prices over the next few years.
A reasonable summary view
- For long‑term, income‑oriented investors who can tolerate some earnings volatility, MDLZ today looks like a quality defensive compounder at a more attractive entry point, with a solid yield and meaningful potential upside if management executes and cost headwinds ease.
- For short‑term traders, the stock may remain choppy as the market reacts to each data point on cocoa prices, volumes and guidance, and as analysts continue to recalibrate their models.
As always, this article is informational only and not financial advice. Whether MDLZ is a buy, hold or sell for you depends on your risk tolerance, time horizon, and broader portfolio. Consider speaking with a licensed financial adviser before making investment decisions.
References
1. stockanalysis.com, 2. stockanalysis.com, 3. www.marketbeat.com, 4. www.marketbeat.com, 5. www.marketbeat.com, 6. www.marketbeat.com, 7. www.stocktitan.net, 8. www.stocktitan.net, 9. www.stocktitan.net, 10. www.barchart.com, 11. www.medianews4u.com, 12. www.stocktitan.net, 13. www.stocktitan.net, 14. www.stocktitan.net, 15. www.stocktitan.net, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.dividend.com, 19. fullratio.com, 20. stockanalysis.com, 21. www.globenewswire.com, 22. www.marketbeat.com, 23. www.marketbeat.com, 24. www.nasdaq.com, 25. www.gurufocus.com, 26. stockanalysis.com, 27. tickernerd.com, 28. www.gurufocus.com, 29. www.gurufocus.com, 30. simplywall.st, 31. simplywall.st, 32. www.gurufocus.com, 33. www.marketbeat.com, 34. companiesmarketcap.com, 35. www.tikr.com, 36. www.benzinga.com, 37. public.com, 38. coincodex.com, 39. walletinvestor.com, 40. stockscan.io, 41. www.stocktitan.net, 42. www.reuters.com, 43. www.stocktitan.net, 44. www.gurufocus.com, 45. www.gurufocus.com, 46. www.stocktitan.net, 47. stockanalysis.com, 48. www.marketbeat.com, 49. www.reuters.com, 50. www.reuters.com
