Exact Sciences (EXAS) Stock: Abbott’s $23 Billion Deal, Q3 Earnings Beat and What Investors Should Watch Now

Exact Sciences Corporation (NASDAQ: EXAS) has turned into one of the most closely watched healthcare stocks heading into December 2025, thanks to a blockbuster takeover agreement with Abbott Laboratories, strong Q3 results, and a rapid share‑price rally that has pushed EXAS to all‑time highs. As of mid‑day on December 1, 2025, the stock trades around $101 per share, just below the agreed $105 per‑share cash buyout price. ^[1]

Below is a deep dive into the latest news, earnings, analyst forecasts, and key risks around Exact Sciences stock as of December 1, 2025.

Exact Sciences Stock Today: Trading Just Below the Takeover Price

According to Exact Sciences’ investor relations page, EXAS is changing hands at about $101.27 in afternoon trading on December 1, 2025. The 52‑week range runs from $38.81 to $101.87, meaning the shares are sitting near their all‑time high after a huge run‑up in November. ^[2]

Third‑party trackers show the most recent official close at $101.29 on November 28, 2025, for a market cap of roughly $19–19.3 billion. ^[3]

Performance has been dramatic:

A ~56% gain in the last month and a strong double‑digit year‑to‑date return (Simply Wall St cites a 56.6% one‑month return, ~78% year‑to‑date and a 63.2% one‑year total return). ^[4]
Over 15 years, a $100 investment would now be worth about $1,882, implying an annualised return of around 21.6%, according to Benzinga. ^[5]

In other words, EXAS is no longer a beaten‑down growth name; it’s trading like an in‑demand acquisition target that has largely priced in the deal premium.

The Big Story: Abbott to Acquire Exact Sciences for $105 per Share

The main driver of the recent surge is Abbott Laboratories’ agreement to acquire Exact Sciences in a transaction valued at up to $23 billion, including debt. ^[6]

Deal terms and premium

Consideration: Abbott will pay $105 per share in cash, implying equity value of about $21 billion and an enterprise value around $23 billion once roughly $1.8 billion of net debt is included. ^[7]
Premium: The offer represents about a 22% premium to EXAS’s last closing price before the deal was announced on November 20, 2025. ^[8]
Timing: The transaction is expected to close in Q2 2026, pending regulatory clearance and shareholder approval. ^[9]

Abbott is effectively buying a leading early‑cancer detection platform: Cologuard for colorectal cancer, Oncotype DX for breast and colon cancer, and a growing portfolio of blood‑based screening and precision oncology tests. ^[10]

Strategic rationale – and concerns

Abbott says the acquisition will: ^[11]

Offset declining COVID‑test revenue by adding a large, durable cancer screening franchise.
Lift its diagnostics sales to over $12 billion annually once Exact is fully consolidated.
Enable global expansion of Exact’s tests, which are still heavily U.S.-centric.

However, some analysts have flagged issues:

The purchase price is “higher than the market expected,” with questions about paying a rich premium for a business that is still unprofitable on a GAAP net‑income basis. ^[12]
Abbott doesn’t currently have a large dedicated oncology diagnostics unit, raising concerns about strategic fit and integration. ^[13]

Shareholder lawsuits and process scrutiny

It’s also worth noting that several shareholder‑rights law firms (including Halper Sadeh and Kahn Swick & Foti) have announced investigations into whether the board of Exact Sciences obtained a fair price and followed a proper sale process. ^[14]

These actions are common in large cash takeovers, but they add a layer of legal and deal‑execution risk that investors should keep in mind.

Q3 2025 Earnings: Growth Reaccelerates and Guidance Moves Higher

Before the merger news hit, Exact Sciences had already delivered a strong Q3 2025 earnings report on November 3. ^[15]

Key highlights:

Total revenue: $851 million, up 20% year‑over‑year.
Screening revenue (Cologuard and related tests): $666 million, up 22%.
Precision Oncology revenue (Oncotype and other oncology tests): $184 million, up 13%.
Gross margin: 69% GAAP, 71% adjusted, indicating solid underlying profitability on the test mix.
Net loss: $20 million, or –$0.10 per share, an improvement of $19 million and $0.10 per share versus the prior year.

On the earnings call, management emphasised:

A 37% increase in adjusted EBITDA to $135 million.
Record cash from operations and free cash flow.
A raise to full‑year 2025 revenue guidance and adjusted EBITDA guidance, with revenue now expected around $3.22 billion, up ~16–17% from 2024. ^[16]

Analysts noted that EPS of $0.24 was significantly better than expectations for a modest loss, and revenue beat consensus by roughly 5%. ^[17]

From a fundamental standpoint, EXAS was already showing operating leverage and improving profitability before the takeover premium entered the picture.

Pipeline Momentum: Cancerguard, Freenome Deal, and Oncoguard Liver

One reason Abbott is willing to pay a premium is Exact Sciences’ broad and fast‑moving pipeline across multiple cancer indications.

1. Cancerguard – multi‑cancer early detection (MCED)

In September 2025, Exact Sciences launched Cancerguard™, a multi‑cancer early detection (MCED) blood test that can screen for up to 50 different cancers from a single blood draw. ^[18]

Key points:

It analyzes multiple biomarker classes and is currently offered as a laboratory‑developed test priced at $689, with broad access through Quest Diagnostics’ ~7,000 patient service centers across the U.S. ^[19]
Cancerguard is not yet FDA‑approved and is an out‑of‑pocket test, similar to competing MCED offerings like Grail’s Galleri. ^[20]

Media coverage has highlighted Cancerguard as part of a new wave of liquid biopsy tests that could make early cancer screening more accessible—but also stressed open questions about false positives, cost, and how best to follow up on positive results, especially in the absence of clear clinical guidelines. ^[21]

2. Freenome blood‑based colorectal cancer test

In August 2025, Exact Sciences signed an agreement for exclusive U.S. rights to Freenome’s blood‑based colorectal cancer (CRC) screening tests, complementing Cologuard’s stool‑based approach. ^[22]

On November 7, 2025, the Hart‑Scott‑Rodino (HSR) waiting period expired, clearing a key U.S. antitrust hurdle for the exclusive license. ^[23]

This gives Exact a multi‑modality CRC portfolio (stool, blood, and future tests) at a time when blood‑based CRC competitors—such as Guardant’s FDA‑approved Shield test—are gaining attention. ^[24]

3. Oncoguard Liver – breakthrough ALTUS study

In early November, Exact announced breakthrough results from the ALTUS study of its Oncoguard® Liver blood test for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC): ^[25]

Oncoguard Liver showed about seven‑times higher sensitivity for very early‑stage HCC compared with the current standard surveillance approach. ^[26]

If adopted widely, this could expand Exact’s addressable market in liver cancer surveillance and further strengthen its positioning in blood‑based diagnostics.

4. Expanding oncology presence at SABCS 2025

For December’s San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium (SABCS 2025), Exact Sciences will present 10 abstracts across its precision oncology portfolio, reinforcing its leadership in breast cancer diagnostics and genomic testing. ^[27]

Taken together, Cancerguard, the Freenome CRC tests, and Oncoguard Liver help support the growth narrative and pipeline optionality that underpins both the Abbott bid and many long‑term bullish models on EXAS.

Analyst Views and Stock Forecasts for EXAS

Analyst sentiment has become more nuanced after the takeover announcement and the share‑price spike.

MarketBeat: Consensus “Hold,” target below current price

MarketBeat, which tracks 26 research firms, reports: ^[28]

Average rating: “Hold”
Breakdown: 2 Strong Buy, 5 Buy, 18 Hold, 1 Sell
Average 12‑month price target:$85 per share

Several key firms—including Leerink Partners, Jefferies, Barclays, Benchmark, Canaccord Genuity and Wells Fargo—have downgraded EXAS from Buy/Strong Buy to Hold following the Abbott deal, even as some raised their price targets to $105 to align with the cash offer. ^[29]

This pattern reflects a common dynamic in takeover situations:

Once a cash bid largely caps upside at the offer price, analysts shift from growth‑oriented recommendations to more neutral stances, viewing the name as an event‑driven, risk‑reward trade rather than a pure fundamental growth story.

StockAnalysis / consensus forecast models

StockAnalysis, which aggregates a subset of 16 analysts, shows: ^[30]

Consensus rating: “Buy”
Average price target:$76.38
Range: low $46, high $105

Interestingly, that average target implies downside from the current ~$101 share price, again underscoring that the stock has moved faster than most models assumed and now trades close to the agreed takeover price.

Simply Wall St valuation narratives

Simply Wall St’s recent deep‑dive on Exact Sciences notes: ^[31]

A 56–57% one‑month rally and strong multi‑year shareholder returns.
A “popular narrative” suggesting EXAS is ~23% overvalued vs one fair‑value framework (fair value around $82).
A proprietary DCF model that paradoxically indicates the stock might still be ~14% undervalued relative to long‑term intrinsic value assumptions.

Those conflicting signals highlight how sensitive outcome is to growth, margin and risk assumptions in a high‑growth, still‑unprofitable diagnostics company.

Fundamentals in 2025: Growth, Balance Sheet and Profitability

From a fundamental standpoint, Exact Sciences is a high‑growth but not yet consistently profitable diagnostics business:

Revenue growth: Expected to reach about $3.22 billion in 2025 (up ~16–17% from 2024) and $3.62 billion in 2026 (up ~12%), according to consensus forecast data compiled by StockAnalysis. ^[32]
Earnings trajectory: Analysts expect EPS of around –$0.65 in 2025, improving to about +$0.42 in 2026, as the company moves toward sustainable profitability. ^[33]
Margins: Q3 2025 showed a 69% gross margin (71% adjusted) and strong EBITDA expansion, but the company still reported a negative net margin (~34%) over the trailing period. ^[34]
Balance sheet: MarketBeat cites a debt‑to‑equity ratio of 0.94, a current ratio of 2.89, and quick ratio of 2.56, indicating reasonable liquidity but a meaningful debt load. ^[35]

Valuation metrics like the traditional P/E ratio (negative, around –18.7 on trailing figures) are of limited use while GAAP earnings remain negative. Growth‑oriented investors and acquirers instead focus on revenue growth, test adoption, market share, and long‑term margin potential. ^[36]

Ownership Trends: Heavy Institutional Interest, Some Profit‑Taking

Exact Sciences is very much an institutional stock:

StockTitan data shows institutional ownership around 95–96% and short interest under 4% of float. ^[37]
MarketBeat reports that institutional investors and hedge funds own roughly 88.8% of outstanding shares based on recent 13F filings, with a mix of new positions and reductions. ^[38]

For example, Advisors Asset Management recently disclosed cutting its EXAS position by 31.4% in Q2, while several other smaller institutions added or built positions. ^[39]

Insiders have also been net sellers over the last few months, with executives and directors selling roughly 9,800 shares worth around $695,000, according to MarketBeat’s tally. ^[40]

None of these moves are shocking after a 50%+ run, but they reinforce the idea that expectations are high and some holders are locking in gains.

How the Abbott Deal Changes the EXAS Investment Case

With the takeover agreement in place, EXAS has shifted from a pure growth story to primarily an M&A‑driven, risk‑arbitrage situation.

1. Upside capped by the $105 cash offer

At today’s price around $101.27, EXAS trades at roughly a 3.7% discount to Abbott’s $105 per‑share offer. ^[41]

For investors buying now, the maximum straightforward upside (assuming no competing bids) is essentially that ~3–4% spread, plus the time value of money if the deal closes on schedule in Q2 2026. On an annualised basis, that implies a mid‑single‑digit return before transaction costs and taxes—assuming everything goes smoothly.

2. Deal‑break risk and potential downside

If the Abbott deal were to fall apart (because of regulatory issues, financing concerns, shareholder rejection, or strategic reconsideration), EXAS would likely revert to trading purely on fundamentals again.

Given that: ^[42]

The stock traded in the mid‑60s to high‑80s in the weeks before takeover rumors and the definitive agreement.
A large portion of the recent gain stems from deal premium and speculation.

A failed deal could plausibly see EXAS re‑rate significantly lower in the short term, even if the long‑term business outlook remains attractive.

3. Possibility of a bump or competing bid

Some media coverage and commentary have speculated about whether another large diagnostics or pharma company might step in with a higher offer. Barron’s, for example, reported that EXAS shares jumped on earlier reports of Abbott’s deal interest even before the final terms were announced. ^[43]

So far, there is no concrete evidence of a competing bidder. A bump is possible in theory, but investors should treat it as speculation, not a base case.

Key Risks Around Exact Sciences Stock

Even with a signed merger agreement, EXAS carries a number of important risks:

Regulatory and antitrust risk
- While analysts currently expect “no meaningful regulatory hurdles,” large healthcare deals always carry some risk of extended review or remediation, especially across multiple jurisdictions. ^[44]
Legal challenges and shareholder litigation
- Multiple law firms have announced investigations into the fairness of the sale price and process, which could delay closing or add costs, though such suits rarely derail large deals outright. ^[45]
Integration and strategic fit
- Abbott is paying a premium for a company whose core strengths are in oncology diagnostics, an area where Abbott has less direct infrastructure today. Poor integration or under‑investment could limit the strategic upside that bull cases assume. ^[46]
Execution risk in MCED and new tests
- Multi‑cancer early detection tests like Cancerguard are cutting‑edge but still controversial; experts have raised concerns about false positives, unclear follow‑up pathways and uncertain cost‑effectiveness, which may affect adoption and reimbursement. ^[47]
Competition
- EXAS faces growing competition in CRC screening (stool tests, colonoscopy, and blood‑based tests like Guardant’s Shield) and in MCED (Grail’s Galleri and other emerging platforms). ^[48]
Valuation and growth expectations
- Even excluding the deal, EXAS trades at a valuation that assumes sustained high‑teens revenue growth and eventual strong EBITDA margins. If growth slows or margins disappoint, long‑term valuation models could compress. ^[49]

What Different Types of Investors Might Consider

This section is for general information only and is not personal investment advice.

Depending on your style and objectives, EXAS now looks very different than it did earlier in 2025:

Event‑driven / merger‑arbitrage investors
- Focus is on the spread between the current price and $105, the probability the deal closes, and the expected timeline.
- Key questions: How likely is regulatory approval? Are shareholder lawsuits a real threat or typical noise? Does Abbott have a history of closing similar deals on time? ^[50]
Long‑term healthcare or oncology investors
- If you were interested in EXAS for its pipeline and leadership in early cancer detection, the question becomes whether you’re comfortable letting Abbott “own” that story instead—possibly by switching into Abbott shares or other oncology‑focused names if the deal completes. ^[51]
Growth‑at‑a‑reasonable‑price investors
- With the stock near the takeover price, fundamental upside is largely capped in the short term unless a competing bid appears. For many GARP investors, EXAS may now look less compelling than it did at lower prices earlier in 2025.

Bottom Line: EXAS Is Now an Event‑Driven Story with a Strong Underlying Business

As of December 1, 2025, Exact Sciences is:

A market‑leading cancer screening and diagnostics company with strong Q3 growth, a rich pipeline (Cancerguard, Oncoguard Liver, Freenome CRC tests), and improving cash generation. ^[52]
The target of a $105 per‑share all‑cash acquisition by Abbott, valuing the company at about $23 billion including debt, with closing expected in Q2 2026. ^[53]
Trading slightly below the offer price, with analysts mostly rating it a “Hold” and highlighting a relatively small remaining spread versus the buyout price. ^[54]

For now, EXAS stock will likely move less on quarterly fundamentals and more on deal‑related headlines, regulatory milestones and legal developments. Long‑term cancer‑diagnostics bulls may already be thinking about what the combined Abbott–Exact platform will look like rather than trying to squeeze out the last few dollars of arbitrage spread.

If you tell me your risk tolerance and whether you’re more interested in short‑term trades or long‑term healthcare exposure, I can help you map out the specific factors that might matter most for your own decision‑making (still in a general, non‑personal‑advice way).

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