Intel Stock After the Bell (Dec. 1, 2025): Apple Foundry Buzz Keeps INTC Near $40 as Legal Risks Grow

Intel stock is catching its breath tonight after a wild few days on Wall Street. After a 10% Black Friday surge, shares of Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC) closed Monday, December 1, 2025, at about $40.01, down roughly 1.4% on the day, before nudging higher to around $40.05 in after-hours trading as of about 4:30 p.m. ET. ^[1]

The pullback comes as traders continue to digest three big storylines:

Persistent rumors that Apple may tap Intel’s 18A process to manufacture entry‑level M‑series chips starting in 2027. ^[2]
A trade‑secret lawsuit involving Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) and a senior Intel hire, raising uncomfortable questions about intellectual property and executive mobility in the chip industry. ^[3]
A turnaround story that has already doubled the stock in a year, even as many Wall Street analysts still see limited upside—or even downside—from here. ^[4]

Below is a deep dive into what moved Intel stock today, what the latest forecasts are saying, and what investors will be watching next.

Intel Stock Today: Cooling Off After a Black Friday Breakout

Price action

Regular session (Dec. 1, 2025): Intel closed around $40.01, down about $0.55 (-1.36%). ^[5]
Intraday range: Data from historical price feeds shows Monday’s trading roughly between $39.6 and $40.4 on volume of about 71 million shares. ^[6]
After-hours: By 4:30 p.m. ET, Intel was trading near $40.05, up a hair (+0.1%) from the close, suggesting no major new catalyst hit after the bell. ^[7]

That small dip looks minor in context. On Friday, November 28, Intel stock spiked roughly 10%, finishing around $40.56 after a shortened Black Friday session, with nearly $3.8 billion worth of stock changing hands—its fifth straight up day and its best move of the year. ^[8]

Over the last 12 months, Intel’s share price has effectively doubled, climbing from roughly $20 at the end of 2024 to around $40–41 today, dramatically outpacing the broader market. ^[9]

In other words: Monday’s red candle is more of a breather than a trend change—for now.

The Big Story: Apple–Intel Foundry Rumors Are Driving the Narrative

The dominant near‑term driver for INTC remains a wave of reports that Apple may send a small slice of its chip manufacturing back to Intel later this decade.

What the rumor actually says

Multiple outlets, citing a note from TF International Securities analyst Ming‑Chi Kuo, describe a scenario where: ^[10]

Apple would use Intel’s 18A (or 18A‑P) process to manufacture entry‑level M‑series chips, likely for budget Macs and iPads—not flagship iPhones.
Production would start around 2027, contingent on Intel delivering a mature 18A process design kit (PDK) expected in 2026.
Annual volumes are estimated at roughly 15–20 million chips, a relatively small slice of Apple’s total silicon demand.
TSMC would remain Apple’s primary supplier, with around 80% of production—and all high‑performance cores—still anchored in Taiwan.

A detailed breakdown from 24/7 Wall St. notes that Intel’s foundry unit (Intel Foundry Services, or IFS) has been bleeding cash, losing more than $13 billion in 2024 on about $7 billion in operating expenses, as the company invested heavily in new nodes like 18A and factory build‑outs in Arizona and elsewhere. At the same time, the article estimates that an Apple order of the rumored size could generate $500 million to $1 billion in annual revenue by 2028, helping absorb fixed costs at underutilized fabs. ^[11]

From Apple’s side, the rumored move is framed as a supply‑chain diversification and national‑security play—a way to secure a U.S.‑based second source amid geopolitical risk around Taiwan and exploding demand for AI‑capable chips. ^[12]

Crucially, neither Apple nor Intel has formally confirmed any deal. For now, the market is trading on leaks, analyst chatter, and strategic logic rather than official guidance.

Why the Rumor Mattered So Much for the Stock

The Apple buzz landed on top of an already improving narrative around Intel’s manufacturing roadmap:

On Black Friday, outlets like MarketBeat highlighted that the combination of Apple headlines and progress on Intel’s 18A node sparked a technical breakout, with Intel topping the S&P 500 leaderboard for the day. ^[13]
Technical services such as StockInvest.us upgraded Intel to a short‑term “buy candidate” after the 10.28% surge, projecting that—based on the existing uptrend—the stock could trade in a $49–67 range over the next three months with a 90% probability, while flagging meaningful downside risk if support levels near the mid‑30s break. ^[14]

Strategically, even a modest Apple contract would be a symbolic win:

It would put one of the world’s most demanding chip customers on Intel’s 18A node, validating years of painful investment and delays. ^[15]
It could encourage other fabless chip designers to take Intel seriously as a second‑source foundry alongside TSMC. ^[16]

Still, the financial impact is likely to be incremental rather than transformational—which is why some analysts are urging caution.

Skeptical Voices: “The Apple Deal Alone Won’t Save Intel”

While social media and options markets have latched onto the Apple story, not everyone on Wall Street is convinced this changes Intel’s fundamentals overnight.

Commentary on platforms like Seeking Alpha (where at least two December 1 pieces retain “Hold” ratings on INTC) argues that: the deal is still unconfirmed, would involve low‑end Mac and iPad chips rather than iPhones, and the implied revenue is too small to offset Intel’s massive capital‑spending and foundry losses by itself. ^[17]
DCF‑style models from services such as Simply Wall St suggest Intel remains significantly overvalued versus their estimate of intrinsic value—even under optimistic scenarios that assume improving free‑cash‑flow from 2027 onward. TS2 Tech+1

In short, bulls see Apple as validation, while skeptics see Apple as a nice‑to‑have, not a cure‑all.

New Legal Overhang: TSMC vs. Intel’s Newly Hired Executive

Adding drama to today’s headlines, Intel is caught up in a trade‑secret controversy involving its arch‑rival TSMC and a high‑profile executive hire, Wei‑Jen Lo.

TSMC has filed a lawsuit in Taiwan’s Intellectual Property and Commercial Court, alleging a “high risk” that Lo—who joined Intel in October 2025 after two decades at TSMC—could disclose confidential information about advanced nodes like 5nm, 3nm, and 2nm. ^[18]
Taiwanese authorities have raided Lo’s residences, seizing computers and storage devices, and are pursuing the case under Taiwan’s National Security Act, underscoring how seriously the island treats semiconductor IP. ^[19]
Intel has publicly denied that Lo brought trade secrets with him and says it enforces strict policies prohibiting the misuse of third‑party intellectual property. ^[20]

So far, there is no direct allegation that Intel itself orchestrated any theft, but the optics are delicate: Intel is in the middle of a foundry reboot, trying to catch up to TSMC exactly in the nodes where Lo used to work.

For investors, this is less a near‑term earnings issue and more a headline and governance risk. If regulators found evidence of wrongdoing, it could complicate Intel’s relationships with governments that are currently supporting its manufacturing build‑out.

Fundamentals: A 2025 Turnaround Backed by Big Money

Beneath the rumor mill, Intel’s rally has been built on a genuine shift in its financial trajectory.

Q3 2025: A “turning point” quarter

In late October, Intel reported third‑quarter 2025 results that beat expectations on multiple fronts: ^[21]

Revenue: Around $13.7 billion, slightly up year‑over‑year and above prior guidance.
Adjusted EPS: Roughly $0.23, well ahead of consensus estimates that were near break‑even.
Gross margin: About 40% (non‑GAAP), beating forecasts by several points.

Segment‑wise, Intel is seeing:

A stabilizing PC business, helped by Windows 11 refresh cycles and new client platforms like Lunar Lake and Arrow Lake. ^[22]
A Data Center & AI segment that’s no longer collapsing, with revenue roughly flat but margins sharply higher thanks to a better mix and cost discipline. ^[23]
A still‑loss‑making but growing Intel Foundry Services business, which management is betting will eventually pay off once 18A and later nodes scale. ^[24]

A capital‑intensive reboot — but with deep pockets behind it

Intel’s turnaround is being financed by an unprecedented mix of government and private capital:

The Biden–Harris administration finalized about $7.86 billion in CHIPS Act funding for Intel earlier this year, supporting advanced fabs in the U.S. ^[25]
SoftBank agreed to invest $2 billion in Intel equity, providing a direct cash lifeline. ^[26]
Nvidia is committing $5 billion for roughly a 4% stake, an unusual move from a direct competitor that underscores how strategic Intel’s manufacturing capacity has become. ^[27]
The U.S. government itself holds about a 10% equity stake after a controversial deal earlier in the year, further entrenching Intel as a “national champion” in advanced manufacturing. ^[28]

Intel is simultaneously cutting costs—planning to end the year with a workforce more than 20% smaller than a year ago—while ramping capital expenditures toward about $27 billion in 2025 as it accelerates 18A and future nodes. ^[29]

The big caveat: Intel’s CFO has acknowledged that 18A yields are still “adequate” rather than margin‑friendly and may not reach “industry‑acceptable” levels until around 2027, which means foundry profitability is still years away. ^[30]

Management & Governance: New CIO and Board Shake‑Up

Today also marks an internal milestone: Cindy Stoddard officially takes over as Senior Vice President and Chief Information Officer (CIO), reporting directly to CEO Lip‑Bu Tan. ^[31]

Stoddard brings more than two decades of experience modernizing IT at large enterprises, and her mandate is to help Intel digitally transform its own operations—a key piece of executing on complex manufacturing and AI roadmaps.

Recent changes include:

The appointment of Dr. Craig H. Barratt to the board in November, adding more semiconductor and networking expertise at the top. ^[32]
Multiple board refreshes and “high number of new directors” flagged by governance trackers like Simply Wall St, reflecting how aggressively Intel is reshaping its leadership bench. ^[33]

For institutional investors, these moves matter: execution on 18A, AI accelerators and foundry deals will hinge on leadership quality as much as on capital spending.

What Wall Street Thinks After the Bell: Mixed, Cautious, and Very Divided

Despite the stock’s big run and today’s Apple buzz, Wall Street’s official stance on Intel remains lukewarm.

Analyst ratings and price targets

MarketBeat aggregates 34 analyst ratings and gives Intel a consensus rating of “Reduce” (between Sell and Hold), with 8 Sells, 24 Holds, and just 2 Buys. The average 12‑month price target is $34.84, implying roughly 13% downside from around $40.01 today. ^[34]
StockAnalysis.com tracks 25 analysts and pegs the consensus at “Hold” with an average target of $31.98, about 20% below current levels, with a range from $20 on the low end to $52 on the high end. ^[35]
QuiverQuant’s latest roundup of rating actions highlights the split: Tigress Financial recently reiterated a Buy with a $52 target, while firms like Rosenblatt, JPMorgan, Bank of America and HSBC sit on Sell, Underweight or Reduce ratings. ^[36]

Put simply, most traditional analysts think Intel’s stock already prices in a lot of good news.

Quant and technical models: short‑term bullish, long‑term skeptical

Algorithmic and technical services add another layer of nuance:

StockInvest.us upgraded Intel to a short‑term Buy, seeing a strong rising trend and projecting a potential ~43% gain over the next three months, albeit with notable downside risk if support around the mid‑30s breaks. ^[37]
CoinCodex is bullish in the very near term, forecasting a move to about $42.86 by December 31, 2025 (roughly +5–6%), but its one‑year model projects a drop toward ~$24 and a 2030 estimate near $17, implying significant downside over longer horizons. ^[38]

These tools are not crystal balls, but the pattern is clear: short‑term momentum screens love Intel; many long‑term models don’t.

Key Catalysts to Watch in December

With Monday’s session in the books and after‑hours trading quiet, investors are already looking ahead to the next set of catalysts:

Investor conferences this week and next
Intel’s IR calendar shows CEO Lip‑Bu Tan and other executives appearing at the UBS Global Technology and AI Conference on December 3 and additional tech conferences later in the month. These events are prime venues for updates on 18A progress, AI accelerators, and any questions about Apple or TSMC. ^[39]
Further developments in the TSMC–Lo legal battle
Any escalation—such as formal charges against Lo or direct legal action involving Intel—could spook investors and raise questions about IP risk in Intel’s foundry strategy. ^[40]
Additional Apple‑Intel reporting or confirmation
A formal comment from either Apple or Intel could dramatically validate or deflate current expectations around the 18A foundry deal.
Next earnings date
Several data providers currently flag January 29, 2026 as Intel’s next earnings release, which will be the first full check‑in after the post‑Q3 rally and after several months of Apple/TSMC headlines. ^[41]

What It All Means for Intel Stock Right Now

From a news standpoint, December 1, 2025, is less about a big price move and more about consolidation after a dramatic re‑rating. Here’s how the setup looks:

Bullish case, in a nutshell

Stock has doubled over 12 months, powered by cost cuts, improving margins, and a genuine earnings rebound. ^[42]
Intel now has a fortified balance sheet, with tens of billions in new public and private capital backing its manufacturing push. ^[43]
An Apple foundry deal—even a small one—would be high‑profile validation of 18A and could open the door to more external customers. ^[44]
PC and data‑center demand looks much healthier than in 2023–2024, with Intel leaning into AI PCs and data‑center accelerators like Gaudi. ^[45]

Bearish (or cautious) case

At around $40, Intel trades close to 52‑week highs and well above many analysts’ fair‑value estimates and DCF‑based intrinsic values. ^[46]
Foundry economics remain unproven: IFS is still losing money, 18A yields aren’t yet where they need to be, and capex is enormous. ^[47]
The Apple deal is still just a rumor, with relatively modest expected volumes even if it becomes real. ^[48]
Legal and governance noise—from the TSMC trade‑secret case to ongoing board and leadership churn—adds a layer of headline risk. ^[49]
Several quant models foresee meaningful downside over a one‑ to five‑year horizon, despite near‑term bullish signals. ^[50]

Bottom Line

After the bell on December 1, 2025, Intel stock is essentially pausing near $40—a level that reflects:

Huge optimism about its AI and foundry reboot, now turbo‑charged by potential Apple business and heavy government and partner backing.
Equally huge execution risk, from getting 18A yields right to navigating legal battles and convincing skeptics that its foundry ambitions can generate durable profits.

For traders, the setup looks like a classic momentum vs. valuation tug‑of‑war. For long‑term investors, the key question is whether Intel can turn today’s headlines—Apple, AI, CHIPS funding—into sustainable, high‑margin cash flows before the patience of the market runs out.

This article is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Anyone considering Intel stock should carefully evaluate their own risk tolerance, time horizon, and the possibility that both the bull and bear cases could be partially right at different points in this turnaround story.