Texas Instruments Incorporated (NASDAQ: TXN) heads into December 2025 as a classic “quality but controversial” semiconductor name: the business is strong, the dividend is rich, but investors are still digesting heavy spending and a weaker‑than‑hoped earnings outlook.
As of the latest trade on December 1, 2025, TXN is around $168 per share (about $168.16), giving the company a market capitalization near $152–153 billion. The stock sits well below its 52‑week high above $220 but comfortably above its low near $140. [1]
Below is a detailed look at the latest news, forecasts and analysis around Texas Instruments stock as of December 1, 2025, along with the key themes investors are watching.
1. Where Texas Instruments Stock Stands Today
Price & valuation snapshot (Dec 1, 2025)
- Share price: about $168–169 per share. [2]
- 52‑week range: roughly $139.95 – $221.69. [3]
- Market cap: ~$152–153 billion. [4]
- Trailing P/E ratio: around 30–31x earnings. [5]
- Dividend yield: about 3.3–3.4%, based on an annualized dividend of $5.68 per share. [6]
- 1‑year change: roughly –16%. [7]
- Year‑to‑date performance: MarketBeat estimates TXN started 2025 near $187.51, putting the stock down roughly 10% year‑to‑date at current levels. [8]
A recent Barchart piece titled “Is Texas Instruments Stock Underperforming the Nasdaq?” notes that TXN has lagged the tech‑heavy Nasdaq over recent months, even as analysts remain moderately optimistic about its longer‑term prospects. [9]
At the same time, Zacks highlighted that on November 28 TXN closed at $168.27, up 1.77% on the day and beating the broader market’s move—part of a five‑day rally heading into December. [10]
In short, TXN is off its highs, off its lows, but still under pressure relative to many peers and benchmarks.
2. Q3 2025 Earnings: Strong Recovery Meets Soft Guidance
The turning point for TXN’s recent trading came with its Q3 2025 results and Q4 outlook, released in late October.
Q3 2025 headline numbers
For the quarter ended September 30, 2025, Texas Instruments reported:
- Revenue:$4.74 billion, up 14.2% year‑on‑year and about 7% sequentially, beating analyst estimates around $4.64–$4.65 billion. [11]
- GAAP EPS:$1.48, essentially in line with consensus (around $1.48–$1.49). One analysis notes this figure included a $0.10 reduction versus original guidance, tied to a discrete tax or related adjustment. [12]
- Segment performance:
StockStory’s research report characterizes Q3 as a third consecutive quarter of revenue growth, typical of the early stages of a cyclical upturn in semiconductors. [15]
Margins, cash flow and inventory
Several datapoints show both strength and emerging pressure:
- Operating margin: about 35.1%, down from 37.4% in the same quarter a year ago. [16]
- Gross margin: around 57.4% in Q3, vs about 59.6% a year earlier, though still very high relative to many chip peers. [17]
- Free cash flow: trailing 12‑month free cash flow of $2.4 billion, up sharply from the prior year, with operating cash flow of $6.9 billion over the same period. [18]
- Inventory: Days Inventory Outstanding (DIO) at 218 days, down from 234 the previous quarter but still well above the company’s five‑year average, suggesting inventory is normalizing but not yet “lean.” [19]
Q4 2025 guidance spooks the market
Despite solid Q3 growth, the Q4 2025 outlook was notably cautious:
- Q4 revenue guidance:$4.22–$4.58 billion, midpoint about $4.4 billion, below Wall Street expectations around $4.51–$4.52 billion. [20]
- Q4 EPS guidance:$1.13–$1.39, also below consensus near $1.40–$1.41. [21]
Multiple outlets – including Reuters, Investors Business Daily and other market reports – highlighted that this weaker‑than‑expected guidance triggered another sharp sell‑off in the shares, with TXN dropping roughly 7–8% in the immediate aftermath. [22]
Management’s message: recovery, but slower and more expensive
On the Q3 call and in follow‑up coverage, management stressed that:
- The semiconductor recovery is underway but progressing at a “slower pace than prior upturns”, especially in industrial and automotive markets. [23]
- Q4 profitability will be pressured by lower wafer loadings, higher depreciation, and a roughly 13% effective tax rate tied to new U.S. tax rules, a step up from prior periods. [24]
- Demand in automotive is improving as customer inventories normalize, but broader industrial capex remains cautious amid tariff and macro uncertainty. [25]
Put simply, TXN’s fundamental engine looks healthy, yet near‑term earnings are being held back by heavy investment and external headwinds.
3. The $60+ Billion U.S. Fab Expansion: Long‑Term Moat, Short‑Term Drag
A central piece of the TXN story in 2025 is its massive manufacturing build‑out in the United States.
What Texas Instruments is building
In June 2025, TI announced plans to invest more than $60 billion across seven semiconductor fabs spread over three U.S. mega‑sites in Sherman and Richardson, Texas, and Lehi, Utah. The company describes this as the largest investment in U.S. semiconductor manufacturing in history and estimates the projects will support over 60,000 jobs when fully ramped. [26]
Key elements:
- Sherman, Texas: up to $40 billion for four fabs (SM1–SM4), with the first two already under construction and full production at the newest facility targeted for the end of 2025. [27]
- Expansion of existing sites in Richardson, TX and Lehi, UT, all focused on “foundational” analog and embedded chips used in cars, industrial equipment, medical devices and consumer electronics. [28]
These investments are meant to secure long‑term supply, cost and geographic advantages, especially as customers and governments push for more on‑shore chip manufacturing.
How the fab build‑out hits earnings
The upside of owning more manufacturing capacity is clear: better control of costs and supply, and the ability to capture more value per chip. But there are near‑term trade‑offs:
- TI expects depreciation of about $1.8–$2.0 billion in 2025, rising to $2.3–$2.7 billion in 2026, largely because of the new fabs. [29]
- Management has warned that lower factory utilization (as it ramps up new capacity and moderates wafer loadings) will weigh on margins for a period. [30]
- Reuters and industry analysts have flagged that this build‑out, combined with tariff uncertainty, is one reason TXN’s 12‑month forward P/E (~29x) screens higher than peers like Analog Devices and Micron, while earnings growth remains modest. [31]
From a stock perspective, the fab program is a classic “pay now, benefit later” strategy: it supports the long‑term moat but depresses near‑term free cash flow and profitability.
4. Dividend Growth and Shareholder Returns
Despite heavy capital spending, Texas Instruments continues to lean into its capital‑return story, which is a major reason dividend‑oriented investors follow TXN closely.
22 years of consecutive dividend increases
In September 2025, TI announced a 4% increase in its quarterly dividend, from $1.36 to $1.42 per share, or $5.68 annualized, marking the 22nd consecutive year of dividend growth. [32]
The board subsequently declared the Q4 2025 dividend of $1.42 per share, paid on November 12, 2025 to shareholders of record as of October 31. [33]
At the current share price around $168, this translates into a dividend yield of roughly 3.3–3.4%, one of the higher yields among large, profitable semiconductor companies. [34]
Payout ratio and buybacks
Over the last 12 months, TXN has:
- Generated about $6.9 billion in operating cash flow and $2.4 billion in free cash flow. [35]
- Returned roughly $6.6 billion to shareholders, including about $4.9 billion in dividends and $1.6 billion in share repurchases. [36]
Some recent analysis notes that the dividend payout ratio is now above 100% of current‑year earnings (around 103–104%), reflecting the tension between aggressive shareholder payouts and heavy investment. [37]
Even so, income‑focused commentary, such as a late‑November Motley Fool article on high‑yield dividend stocks, highlights Texas Instruments as an attractive way to play a cyclical recovery in automotive and industrial demand while collecting a sizable and growing dividend. [38]
5. Big‑Money Moves: Norges Bank and Other Institutional Investors
Another major narrative heading into December 2025 is who is buying (and selling) TXN behind the scenes.
Norges Bank’s new multibillion‑dollar stake
In late November, filings revealed that Norges Bank, which manages Norway’s sovereign wealth fund, built a new TXN position in Q2 2025:
- About 13.7 million shares, valued around $2.84 billion.
- Roughly 1.5% ownership of Texas Instruments. [39]
MarketBeat’s reporting also underscores that institutional investors collectively hold about 85% of TXN’s shares, with Vanguard, State Street, Wellington and Invesco among the largest holders. [40]
November fund‑flow headlines
Over November 28–30, a cluster of 13F‑related news items showed:
- New or increased stakes by entities such as Level Four Advisory Services, Grantham Mayo Van Otterloo & Co., Vinva Investment Management, and United Super Pty Ltd (for the CBUS superannuation fund), among others. [41]
- At the same time, some funds, including Railway Pension Investments Ltd and other smaller institutions, reported trimming or selling portions of their TXN holdings. [42]
A recent TechStock² article summarized the picture succinctly: TXN has seen fresh institutional buying into the recent share price weakness, even as analysts turn more cautious and downgrades accumulate. TS2 Tech+1
6. Analyst Ratings, Price Targets and Valuation Debates
If there is one word for Wall Street’s current stance on Texas Instruments, it is “mixed.”
Consensus: Hold, with modest upside
MarketBeat’s consensus data shows: [43]
- 31 analysts covering TXN.
- Overall consensus rating: “Hold.”
- Average 12‑month price target: about $191–192 per share.
- Target range: low around $125, high up to $245.
- From the current price near $168, that average implies roughly 14% upside.
Public.com’s aggregated forecast, based on 21 analysts, also pegs the consensus rating at Hold, with a similar 2025 price prediction around $192.48. [44]
Recent target changes and split views
The analyst tape over the last few months reflects sharpened disagreement:
- Citi recently reaffirmed a Buy rating on TXN, with a price target around $235, and has previously named the stock a top pick in analog semiconductors, citing low volatility and long‑term demand in industrial and automotive markets. [45]
- UBS maintains a Buy rating but trimmed its target to around $245, pointing to slower industrial restocking and limited AI‑specific upside in the near term. [46]
- TD Cowen reiterates a Buy with a target near $210, arguing that TXN’s diversified end‑markets and strong analog franchise support mid‑cycle growth once macro headwinds ease. [47]
- Bank of America rates the stock Underperform with a target about $190, flagging limited artificial‑intelligence leverage, tariff exposure and margin pressure from heavy capex. [48]
- Mizuho downgraded TXN to Underperform and cut its target to $150, citing concerns about margin compression, tariff risks and a slower pace of earnings recovery versus peers. [49]
- Morgan Stanley maintains an Underweight stance with a target around $192, emphasizing ongoing cyclical headwinds and uneven restocking trends. [50]
Finviz’s compilation of rating actions makes the split clear, listing multiple Buy/Outperform ratings alongside a cluster of Underperform/Sell calls and a wide range of target cuts since October’s earnings. [51]
Is TXN under‑ or over‑valued?
Recent valuation‑focused pieces reach different conclusions:
- A new Simply Wall St / Webull narrative pegs TXN’s “fair value” at about $189.56 per share, roughly 11% above a recent close around $168, implying the stock is modestly undervalued. [52]
- The same analysis notes that a more conservative DCF model yields a fair value near $150.90, below the market price, suggesting TXN could also be viewed as slightly overvalued depending on assumptions. [53]
- StockStory estimates that TXN trades at about 28.3x forward earnings, calling the company high quality but potentially a “value trap” if margins continue to erode and capital intensity stays elevated. [54]
Meanwhile, Google Finance and Investing.com data show: [55]
- Trailing P/E around 30–31x.
- Price‑to‑book near 9.2x.
- EV/EBITDA about 20–21x.
- Return on equity close to 30%, and gross margin around 57–58%.
Taken together, TXN screens as a premium‑priced, high‑margin analog franchise whose valuation now sits between “quality at a fair price” and “expensive given slower growth,” depending on the model and risk appetite.
7. What Recent Commentary Is Saying About TXN
Over the last week, a wave of analysis has tried to reconcile TXN’s earnings, valuation, dividends and macro backdrop.
Performance vs. the Nasdaq and peers
- Barchart’s “Is Texas Instruments Stock Underperforming the Nasdaq?” highlights that TXN has meaningfully underperformed the Nasdaq in 2025, while noting that analysts still see high‑single‑ to low‑double‑digit upside over 12 months based on current targets. [56]
- Analog peer Analog Devices (ADI) recently posted better‑than‑expected results and guidance, supported by robust industrial demand, underlining that the analog cycle may be recovering unevenly across companies. [57]
Valuation and recovery narratives
- A recent valuation note syndicated via Yahoo / Simply Wall St argues that TXN’s most common valuation narrative points to being about 11% undervalued, but an alternative DCF lens sees the shares as fully valued or slightly rich, illustrating how sensitive the story is to growth and margin assumptions. [58]
- Another Simply Wall St‑branded article asks “What Catalysts Could Shift the Story for TI Amid Margin Pressures and Tariff Uncertainty”, emphasizing that tariff policy, margin stabilization and evidence of stronger end‑market demand could all move the valuation debate decisively one way or the other. (The overall themes match concerns raised in other coverage about tariffs, capex and slow recovery.) [59]
“We like the dividend, but…” arguments
- A recent StockStory commentary titled “3 of Wall Street’s Favorite Stocks We Steer Clear Of” lists TXN as a high‑quality but underwhelming opportunity, citing declining margins over the last five years, rising capital intensity and the risk that the stock remains stuck in a lower valuation band despite its franchise strengths. [60]
- Motley Fool’s dividend‑focused piece places TXN alongside Target and Chevron as high‑yield dividend growers whose share prices have lagged the broader market, but whose cash flows and payout histories may appeal to income and value investors. [61]
Short‑term trading setups
Short‑term traders are watching TXN’s technical levels as well. Capital.com’s October analysis (still widely referenced) pointed out that the stock had broken below key moving averages and was trading in the $170s with resistance near $198–$212 and support in the low $170s to high $150s. [62]
With TXN now hovering around $168 and its 50‑day and 200‑day moving averages still above the current price, many technical frameworks describe the stock as being in a rebound within a broader downtrend, pending clearer evidence of earnings acceleration.
8. Key Risks and Catalysts Heading Into 2026
Looking beyond today’s price, several macro and company‑specific factors are likely to shape TXN’s trajectory into 2026.
1. Tariffs and trade policy
Multiple reports cite ongoing U.S. tariff uncertainty, particularly involving China, as a headwind for TI and the broader analog sector. Reuters and TrendForce both note that customers, especially in industrial markets, are reluctant to commit to new projects or capacity until they have more clarity on tariff levels and rules. [63]
Any resolution or escalation on trade policy could have an outsized impact on TXN’s demand visibility and capital‑spending assumptions.
2. Pace of the analog cycle
Management has made it clear that this recovery is slower than past cycles, even as inventories in key areas like automotive have largely been worked down. [64]
The contrast with Analog Devices’ more upbeat recent results underscores that end‑market mix and customer behavior will be crucial. If industrial capex and auto demand accelerate in 2026, TXN could see a multi‑quarter volume tailwind; if not, the stock may continue to trade like a slow‑growth bond proxy.
3. Execution on the U.S. fab build‑out
The $60+ billion fab program is both TXN’s biggest strategic opportunity and one of its main financial risks:
- If TI can fill these fabs with profitable, long‑lived analog demand, it could secure decades of cost and supply advantages. [65]
- If demand disappoints or capital costs over‑run, the company may face prolonged margin pressure and lower returns on invested capital.
Investors will be scrutinizing quarterly updates on depreciation, factory loadings and free cash flow to gauge whether the capex story is tracking to plan. [66]
4. Dividend sustainability vs. growth investment
With the dividend now yielding over 3% and the payout ratio above 100% of earnings, some analysts question whether TXN can keep raising the dividend at its historical pace while also funding aggressive capacity expansion. [67]
So far, management has signaled commitment to both, but the balance between shareholder returns and reinvestment will remain a focal point.
5. Upcoming events
Near‑term catalysts include:
- TI CEO Haviv Ilan’s appearance at the UBS Global Technology & AI Conference on December 2, 2025, where investors hope to hear more on tariffs, demand trends and manufacturing strategy. [68]
- The next earnings release, currently expected around January 27, 2026, which will show whether Q4 results landed closer to the low or high end of guidance and how 2026 guidance shapes up. [69]
9. What This Means for Different Types of Investors (Not Investment Advice)
Because investment needs and risk tolerance vary, the implications of all this news depend heavily on who you are as an investor. The following is general information, not personalized financial advice:
Income and dividend‑growth investors
What’s attractive:
- A 3.3–3.4% dividend yield backed by 22 years of consecutive increases. [70]
- A business model built on long‑lived analog products that tend to generate steady cash once fabs are fully utilized. [71]
What to watch:
- Payout ratio above 100% of current earnings, and the tension between dividend growth and capex‑driven cash needs. [72]
Long‑term “quality compounder” investors
What’s attractive:
- Sustained high gross margins (~57–58%) and strong returns on equity (~30%). [73]
- A dominant position in analog and embedded semiconductors, with broad exposure across industrial, automotive and communications end‑markets. [74]
What to watch:
- Evidence that the fab megaprojects are translating into profitable, incremental growth rather than just higher depreciation. [75]
- Whether margins stabilize or continue to drift lower over the next 2–3 years.
Value‑oriented or contrarian investors
What’s attractive:
- The stock is roughly 24% below its 2025 peak above $220, and some fair‑value models place intrinsic value in the low‑to‑mid $190s, implying moderate upside. [76]
What to watch:
- Bearish cases that frame TXN as a “value trap” if margins remain under pressure and analog growth slows. [77]
- Macro and tariff risks that could elongate the downturn or delay the expected upturn in industrial and automotive demand. [78]
Final Word
As of December 1, 2025, Texas Instruments stock sits at the crossroads of several powerful forces:
- A robust analog franchise and strong Q3 revenue rebound.
- A muted earnings outlook shaped by tariffs, tax changes, and massive U.S. manufacturing investment.
- A rich, growing dividend that makes TXN a candidate for income portfolios—but also raises questions about sustainability if growth under‑delivers.
- Wall Street views split between those who see a high‑quality compounder temporarily out of favor, and those who worry that rising capital intensity and slower growth justify a lower multiple.
For anyone considering TXN, the key is to decide whether you believe TI’s $60+ billion fab bet and end‑market exposure will pay off sufficiently over the next decade to offset near‑term earnings drag and justify today’s valuation.
As always, it’s important to do your own research, consider your time horizon and risk tolerance, and, if needed, consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.
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