Workday, Inc. (NASDAQ: WDAY) remains in the spotlight as investors digest its latest fiscal 2026 third‑quarter earnings, an aggressive push into artificial intelligence (AI), and a wave of fresh analyst forecasts published around December 1, 2025.
As of the last trade on December 1, 2025, Workday shares change hands at about $213.35, down roughly 1% on the day. The stock now sits around 4% above its 52‑week low near $205 and more than 25% below its 52‑week high around $294, leaving it in a post‑earnings “reset” zone rather than at euphoric highs. [1]
Below is a comprehensive look at Workday’s stock today – including the latest news, forecasts, and analysis dated December 1, 2025, and the crucial context from the days following its earnings release.
Workday stock today: price, valuation and trading range
- Latest price: $213.35
- Market capitalization: ~$61.2 billion
- Intraday range (Dec 1): $211.33 – $215.80
- P/E (GAAP, trailing): mid‑30s based on current price and trailing EPS around $6.15
- 52‑week range: roughly $205.33 – $294.00 [2]
Different data providers peg Workday’s valuation slightly differently, but they agree on one thing: this is a premium multiple stock. One fundamental screener estimates a P/E around 24.8x, lower than many high‑growth software peers but still above the broader market. [3]
For investors tracking levels, several technical and research platforms highlight a support zone between about $204 and $226, a band from which the stock has previously rebounded. [4]
Inside Workday’s latest results: fiscal Q3 2026 at a glance
Workday reported fiscal 2026 third‑quarter results (quarter ended October 31, 2025) on November 25, 2025.
Key numbers from the company’s own release: [5]
- Total revenue: $2.432 billion, +12.6% year‑over‑year
- Subscription revenue: $2.244 billion, +14.6% year‑over‑year
- GAAP operating income: $259 million (10.7% margin), up from $165 million (7.6% margin) a year ago
- Non‑GAAP operating income: $692 million (28.5% margin), up from $569 million (26.3%)
- GAAP diluted EPS: $0.94, up from $0.72
- Non‑GAAP diluted EPS: $2.32, up from $1.89
Workday also highlighted very strong backlog and cash metrics: [6]
- 12‑month subscription revenue backlog: $8.21 billion, +17.6% YoY
- Total subscription backlog: $25.96 billion, +17.0% YoY (including the impact of the Paradox acquisition)
- Operating cash flow: $588 million vs. $406 million a year ago
- Free cash flow: $550 million vs. $359 million a year ago
- Cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities: $6.84 billion at quarter‑end
On the shareholder‑returns side, Workday repurchased about 3.4 million shares for $803 million during the quarter. [7]
From a fundamentals perspective, this was a very strong quarter: double‑digit subscription growth, margin expansion, robust cash generation, and rising backlog.
Why the stock fell after an earnings beat
Despite beating Wall Street estimates on both revenue and earnings, Workday’s shares dropped as much as 7–10% in the sessions following the report. Multiple outlets – including CNBC, Barron’s, Alpha Spread and Zacks – all tell a consistent story: guidance and growth quality, not the headline numbers, drove the sell‑off. [8]
Several points weighed on sentiment:
- Margin guidance came in lighter than bulls hoped.
- Workday guided for a Q4 non‑GAAP operating margin of at least 28.5% and full‑year FY26 non‑GAAP margin of about 29%. [9]
- While solid on an absolute basis, some investors had positioned for an upside surprise, leading to disappointment when guidance merely met – or slightly lagged – aggressive expectations. [10]
- Subscription revenue and billings were seen as “lukewarm”.
- Reuters and other outlets described subscription revenue as roughly in line with estimates, not meaningfully ahead, raising questions about demand in a cautious IT spending environment. [11]
- Commentary from some analysts flagged concerns that growth in backlog and current remaining performance obligations (cRPO) is increasingly influenced by M&A (notably the Paradox and Sana deals), complicating the growth narrative. [12]
- Macro and sector backdrop remains fragile.
- 24/7 Wall St’s live market coverage noted Workday falling nearly 8% on the day after earnings on “disappointing subscription sales,” highlighting the broader market’s sensitivity to any hint of deceleration in enterprise software. [13]
- Across tech, 2025 has seen investors demanding clearer proof that AI investments will translate into durable revenue acceleration, rather than just higher costs.
The result: a classic “good quarter, fussy market” reaction. Workday delivered what looks like fundamentally healthy numbers, but in a richly valued, AI‑driven software basket, the bar is simply very high.
Fresh December 1 updates: new EPS forecasts and institutional moves
DA Davidson’s new EPS forecast
On December 1, 2025, DA Davidson published fresh estimates for Workday’s longer‑term earnings power: [14]
- FY2026 EPS forecast:$4.09
- FY2027 EPS forecast:$5.65
- Rating: Hold
- Price target:$250 per share
For context, the current consensus full‑year EPS estimate is around $2.63, meaning DA Davidson’s multi‑year view assumes significant earnings expansion over the next two fiscal years. [15]
The note also reiterated that Workday:
- Beat expectations last quarter with non‑GAAP EPS of $2.32 vs. roughly $2.16–$2.17 expected and
- Generated $2.43 billion in revenue, up 12.6% YoY, reinforcing that near‑term execution remains solid. [16]
New institutional buying – Norges Bank and others
Several new filings and alerts around November 30–December 1 highlight sustained institutional interest in Workday:
- Norges Bank (Norway’s central bank and one of the world’s largest sovereign wealth funds) disclosed a new stake worth about $442.7 million in Workday. [17]
- Global Retirement Partners LLC reported purchasing 1,427 shares of WDAY in a recent filing. [18]
- Additional recent filings show large investors such as Loomis Sayles, Russell Investments, the State Board of Administration of Florida, Korea Investment Corp, and others either initiating or increasing positions, while some (e.g., Franklin Resources, Neuberger Berman) have taken partial profits. [19]
MarketBeat data suggests that institutional investors control close to 90% of Workday’s float, underlining that this is a core institutional software name rather than a retail‑driven story. [20]
Style‑box lens: “Affordable growth”
Also published on December 1, ChartMill profiled Workday as a candidate for a “Affordable Growth” (GARP) strategy: [21]
- Assigns Workday a 7/10 growth score, citing:
- Revenue up ~13% over the last year
- EPS up roughly 25% year‑over‑year
- Multi‑year EPS and revenue CAGRs in the high‑teens to low‑20s
- Views valuation as “neutral to fair”, with a P/E around 24.8x, cheaper than a majority of software peers on both trailing and forward earnings multiples.
- Highlights solid profitability metrics, including an operating margin above 15% and a return on invested capital (ROIC) around 9%, which stack up well versus sector averages.
Taken together, December 1 news flow paints a picture of a company seen as fundamentally strong but not universally cheap, with at least some analysts and screeners arguing that the pullback has made the risk‑reward more palatable.
Analyst ratings and price targets: where Wall Street stands now
Across Wall Street, Workday remains broadly favored, but the tone has shifted from “unquestioned winner” to “buy, but with more nuance.”
Consensus rating: still a “Moderate/Buy”
- MarketBeat and other aggregators show Workday carrying an overall “Moderate Buy” or “Buy” consensus rating from roughly 30–50 analysts, with no major sell ratings. [22]
Consensus price targets
Different aggregators report slightly different numbers, but they cluster tightly:
- Average 12‑month price target (MarketBeat / Needham note): about $283–287 per share. [23]
- Consensus target after Q3 update (Yahoo/SwingTradeBot summary): down modestly from $282.05 to around $277.28, reflecting minor trims after the guidance. [24]
- TickerNerd forecast (51 analysts): median target $280, with high around $326 and low around $230. [25]
- Another consumer investing app shows an average target near $283.3, reinforcing that most published targets cluster in the high‑$270s to low‑$280s. [26]
Versus the current price in the low‑$210s, these targets imply roughly 25–30% upside if analysts are right – but analysts have also become more cautious, cutting some targets after the Q3 report.
Recent rating and target moves
In the last week, multiple firms weighed in on Workday:
- Needham & Co. – Buy, $300 target reaffirmed, citing strong AI momentum and growing current remaining performance obligations (cRPO). [27]
- Cantor Fitzgerald – Overweight, $280 target, arguing Workday’s AI roadmap and backlog growth support continued double‑digit expansion. [28]
- RBC Capital Markets – Outperform, $320 target (down from $340), acknowledging solid fundamentals but trimming expectations amid sector and valuation risks. [29]
- Citizens JMP – Market Outperform with a $315 target, maintaining a constructive stance post‑earnings. [30]
- KeyBanc Capital Markets – Overweight, but reduced the target from $285 to $260 after Q3 on a more conservative outlook. [31]
- UBS – cut its price target to $240, highlighting growth concerns and a more balanced risk‑reward after the rally earlier in 2025. [32]
- DA Davidson – Hold with a $250 target and the multi‑year EPS forecasts noted earlier. [33]
The pattern is clear: most major firms remain positive but many have trimmed targets, recognizing both ongoing strength and elevated expectations.
Workday’s AI and product roadmap: the long‑term growth story
A big part of the Workday thesis revolves around its AI‑first transformation and expansion from core HCM into finance, planning, spend and developer platforms.
AI agents, Data Cloud and developer tooling
At Workday Rising 2025, the company unveiled several notable innovations: [34]
- Workday Illuminate™ AI agents – domain‑specific agents aimed at automating workflows across HR and finance.
- Workday Data Cloud – a data layer meant to unify operational and analytical data for better AI‑driven insights.
- Workday Build – an open developer experience built on Workday Extend and Workday AI Gateway, enabling partners and customers to build intelligent apps using Workday data and AI services.
- AI Flex Credits / Workday Flex Credits – a transparent, subscription‑based model for AI consumption, designed to embed AI usage directly into pricing and go‑to‑market strategy.
Workday also announced a new AI Centre of Excellence in Dublin with a planned €175 million investment and the creation of about 200 specialized AI roles, underscoring its commitment to AI R&D. [35]
Spring 2025 release: 350+ new features
Earlier in 2025, Workday rolled out its Spring 2025 release, featuring more than 350 new features across HR and finance: [36]
- AI‑powered talent rediscovery, job recommendations and onboarding
- AI‑driven document intelligence, time‑tracking prompts, and smarter search in Workday Assistant
- New finance tools, including Workday Services CPQ and AI‑powered accounts payable automation
These updates reinforce the idea that Workday’s AI strategy is not a single product but a platform‑wide infusion of AI capabilities.
Workday GO: midmarket expansion
SMB Group’s coverage of Workday Rising highlighted Workday GO, an approach aimed at mid‑market and smaller enterprises: [37]
- Emphasizes rapid deployments (30–60 days) with pre‑configured processes
- Targets customers in the 70–100 employee range that need integrated HR, payroll and finance without the complexity of legacy ERP
- Positioned as a key long‑term growth driver as Workday moves beyond large enterprises
Taken together, these initiatives support the bull case that Workday can compound growth by:
- Deepening wallet‑share at existing large customers (finance + HCM + planning + AI agents), and
- Opening up a much larger mid‑market TAM with faster, lighter deployments.
Balance sheet, cash flow and restructuring
Workday’s balance sheet remains strong: [38]
- Cash and marketable securities: $6.84 billion
- Total assets: $17.75 billion
- Total liabilities: $8.87 billion
- Long‑term debt: about $3.0 billion
Free cash flow is robust and rising – $1.56 billion over the first nine months of fiscal 2026, up from $1.17 billion in the prior year period. [39]
In February 2025, Workday announced a Fiscal 2026 restructuring plan, including an approximate 7.5% reduction in headcount and office space rationalization. As of Q3, the company has recognized roughly $133 million in employee‑related restructuring charges and $39 million in real estate impairments under the plan. [40]
The restructuring is framed as a way to prioritize investments and support “durable growth”, helping to sustain high‑20s non‑GAAP operating margins even as Workday spends heavily on AI and acquisitions.
Key risks investors are debating
Recent commentary from analysts and the financial press points to several recurring risk themes:
- Growth vs. expectations
- Subscription growth in the mid‑teens is healthy, but not explosive given Workday’s valuation. Multiple articles note that even small disappointments versus consensus on subscription revenue or cRPO can trigger outsized stock reactions. [41]
- Quality of backlog & M&A contribution
- Some analysts worry that recent backlog growth is partly acquisition‑driven, especially with Paradox and Sana folded in, making it harder to read the underlying organic trajectory. [42]
- Competitive landscape and AI execution
- Workday faces intense competition from other cloud ERP and HCM vendors – including Oracle, SAP, ServiceNow and newer AI‑focused entrants – all racing to embed generative AI into their platforms.
- Success hinges on Workday’s ability to turn AI announcements into tangible productivity gains and revenue expansion for customers, not just marketing headlines. [43]
- Macro headwinds in enterprise software
- The 2025 macro environment has been marked by cautious IT budgets, longer deal cycles and increased scrutiny on large SaaS contracts. Several articles explicitly link Workday’s post‑earnings selloff to this broader software risk‑off mood. [44]
- Activist and governance dynamics
- Earlier in 2025, reports indicated that Elliott Management had built a stake of more than $2 billion in Workday, sparking expectations of continued pressure for margin expansion and capital returns. [45]
- While such activism can be supportive for shareholders, it can also push management toward decisions (e.g., accelerated cost cuts) that must be carefully balanced against long‑term innovation needs.
Workday stock forecast: what to watch into 2026
Given all of the above, how does the forward story look from December 1, 2025?
What the numbers imply
Based on current data:
- Revenue growth:
- Management guides for full‑year FY26 subscription revenue of $8.828 billion, +14.4% YoY. [46]
- Margins:
- Aiming for ~29% non‑GAAP operating margin for FY26, after already delivering 28.5% in Q3. [47]
- EPS trajectory:
- Consensus full‑year EPS around $2.63 today, with DA Davidson calling for $4.09 in FY26 and $5.65 in FY27, implying strong multi‑year earnings leverage if the company can execute. [48]
Analyst price targets in the $270–$285 range and median forecasts around $280 all effectively assume that Workday will: [49]
- Sustain mid‑teens subscription growth,
- Maintain or gradually expand high‑20s to low‑30s non‑GAAP operating margins, and
- Successfully monetize its AI platform and mid‑market expansion over the next 12–24 months.
Key catalysts and indicators to track
For anyone following WDAY from here, important signposts include:
- Q4 and FY26 guidance updates – any change in subscription revenue outlook or margin profile will be scrutinized.
- cRPO and new large deals – especially evidence of new, AI‑linked wins across healthcare, government, financial services and mid‑market customers. [50]
- Adoption of Workday’s AI agents, Data Cloud and Build platform – watch for customer testimonials, case studies and incremental revenue attribution to AI offerings. [51]
- Competitive responses – pricing, bundling or AI feature gaps versus key rivals could shift sentiment quickly.
- Macro signals – IT spending surveys, hiring trends, and enterprise cloud budgets remain crucial for any large SaaS name.
Bottom line
As of December 1, 2025, Workday stock sits at the crossroads of:
- Solid fundamentals – double‑digit subscription growth, expanding margins, strong cash generation and a fortress‑like backlog;
- Ambitious AI‑driven transformation – with new agents, data platforms and mid‑market offerings rolling out at scale; and
- Higher scrutiny from investors – on growth quality, AI monetization, and whether the current valuation fully reflects both the opportunities and the risks.
Most analysts still see upside from current levels, but recent price‑target cuts and the post‑earnings pullback remind investors that execution – not just AI headlines – will drive returns from here.
Important: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Always do your own research and consider speaking with a qualified financial adviser before making investment decisions.
References
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