Newmont Stock Soars in 2025 as Gold Hits Records: Is NEM Still a Buy After UBS Lifts Target to $125?

Newmont Corporation (NYSE: NEM), the world’s largest gold miner, has turned 2025 into a breakout year. As of 1 December 2025, Newmont stock trades around $91.83, up more than 100% year-to-date after a 12% surge in November alone, closely tracking gold’s march to fresh record highs. ^[1]

On Monday, UBS reinforced the bullish narrative, raising its price target on NEM to $125 and reiterating a Buy rating, citing strong gold fundamentals and a streamlined asset base after a wave of divestitures. ^[2] At the same time, Newmont is churning out record free cash flow, rapidly shrinking its debt load, and stepping up share buybacks.

Here’s a deep dive into what’s driving Newmont’s rally, what the latest forecasts say, and what investors should watch next.

Newmont Stock Today: A Top-Performing Gold Name

• Price: ~$91.83 at the close on 1 December 2025
• Recent momentum: Up about 12% over the past month, versus a roughly 17.7% gain for the broader Zacks Mining – Gold industry and a small decline for the S&P 500 over the same period. ^[3]
• Year-to-date: Various trackers put Newmont’s 2025 gain at over 117%, with Barron’s estimating roughly 147% year‑to‑date through late November. ^[4]

Newmont has also become one of the most talked‑about tickers in the gold space:

• Zacks notes NEM is among its most searched stocks, now rated Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) on the back of rising earnings estimates. ^[5]
• Social‑media tracking firm QuiverQuant reports that Newmont is a hot topic on X, with users focusing on its triple‑digit share price gains and record gold prices. ^[6]
• MarketBeat’s “Top Gold Stocks to Research – December 1st” list features NEM alongside other major miners. ^[7]

Add in a Benzinga report highlighting bullish options activity from “deep‑pocketed” investors, and it’s clear institutional and retail attention are both elevated. ^[8]

Q3 2025: Big Earnings Beat and Record Free Cash Flow

Newmont’s latest leg higher really began with its third‑quarter 2025 results, released on 23 October.

Headline numbers

According to the company:

• Net income: About $1.8 billion, with adjusted net income of $1.9 billion or $1.71 per diluted share. ^[9]
• Adjusted EBITDA: Roughly $3.3 billion. ^[10]
• Production: Around 1.4 million ounces of gold and 35,000 tonnes of copper, mainly from core managed operations. ^[11]

Zacks’ recap notes that Q3 revenue came in around $5.52 billion, up roughly 20% year‑on‑year, and comfortably ahead of consensus. EPS and revenue both beat estimates, continuing a streak of four straight quarters of upside surprises. ^[12]

Cash machine mode

The real story, though, is cash:

• Operating cash flow: About $2.3 billion in Q3.
• Free cash flow: A record $1.6 billion for the quarter, marking the fourth consecutive quarter with more than $1 billion in free cash flow. ^[13]

That kind of cash generation is what allows Newmont to aggressively clean up its balance sheet and return money to shareholders.

Divestments, debt reduction, and buybacks

Newmont’s Q3 release shows how dramatically the portfolio has been reshaped in 2025:

• The company received nearly $640 million in Q3 alone from asset and equity sales, including disposing of stakes in Orla Mining and Discovery Silver, collecting a contingent payment from the Akyem mine, and selling the Coffee project. ^[14]
• Year‑to‑date, Newmont has pulled in more than $3.5 billion of net cash from announced transactions, with roughly $2.6 billion from mine divestitures and about $900 million from equity sales. ^[15]

Those proceeds are being plowed into balance‑sheet repair and shareholder returns:

• Debt: Newmont cut debt by about $2 billion via a tender offer, ending Q3 in a near‑zero net debt position with $5.6 billion of cash and $9.6 billion of total liquidity. ^[16]
• Shareholder returns: The company has returned roughly $823 million to investors through share repurchases and dividends since the prior earnings call, and has executed $3.3 billion of buybacks under its authorization, leaving $2.7 billion of capacity. It also declared a $0.25 per‑share quarterly dividend payable in December. ^[17]
• Credit rating: Moody’s upgraded Newmont to A3 with a stable outlook, reflecting the stronger balance sheet and liquidity. ^[18]

For a cyclical miner, that combination—high free cash flow, low leverage, and ongoing buybacks—is exactly what many long‑term investors want to see.

Cost and Capital Guidance: Leaner After Non‑Core Asset Sales

Newmont entered 2025 with a clear agenda: integrate the Newcrest acquisition, sell non‑core mines, and push costs down.

The Q3 guidance table shows the “new” portfolio starting to take shape:

• 2025 attributable gold production is forecast at about 5.9 million ounces, with 5.6 million ounces from the core portfolio and roughly 0.3 million from non‑core assets that have now largely been sold. ^[19]
• Cash costs (CAS) for gold are guided to roughly $1,200 per ounce, with all‑in sustaining costs (AISC) around $1,630 per ounce for 2025, including both core and non‑core operations. ^[20]
• Capital spending: Management expects about $1.7 billion in sustaining capital and $1.3 billion in development capital for the year, plus several hundred million dollars in exploration, G&A, and other corporate expenses. ^[21]

The company also notes that all projects and mines previously slated for divestment were sold by October 2025, as part of a sweeping portfolio reshuffle. ^[22]

That restructuring has a human cost: a Reuters report based on an internal memo says Newmont’s post‑Newcrest reorganization has affected about 16% of its workforce, underlining the scale of the integration. ^[23]

On the growth side, management expects to declare commercial production at the Ahafo North project in Ghana, adding a new 13‑year source of “profitable gold production.” ^[24]

Gold’s Macro Tailwind: Record Prices and Fed Cut Hopes

Newmont’s rally doesn’t exist in a vacuum. The backdrop for gold is unusually strong:

• Gold futures gained about 6.5% in November, pushing back toward record territory near $4,285 per troy ounce and setting the stage for the biggest annual gain since 1979, according to Barron’s. ^[25]
• The move is driven by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut at the 10 December meeting, a softer U.S. dollar, and renewed demand for gold as a safe‑haven asset. ^[26]
• Reuters notes that gold has hit a series of record highs this year, with the rally closely linked to falling real yields and geopolitical risk. ^[27]

Gold miners typically act as leveraged plays on the gold price, and Barron’s highlights Newmont as a prime example: the stock rose about 12% in November while gold futures advanced 6.5%, and is up well over 100% this year. ^[28]

If gold continues to trade near or above current levels, Newmont’s current cost guidance implies very healthy margins. But if the Fed disappoints or real yields rise again, that leverage cuts both ways.

How Bullish Are Analysts on Newmont Stock?

Across Wall Street and data platforms, the tone on NEM is decidedly positive—but with some nuances.

Sell‑side price targets

Different aggregators show slightly different numbers, but they broadly agree that:

• UBS now targets $125 with a Buy rating, arguing that gold remains well supported into 2026 and highlighting Newmont’s roughly 5.6 million ounces of core gold production, sizeable base‑metal byproducts, and long reserve life (about two decades at current production rates). ^[29]
• MarketBeat reports an average 12‑month target of around $92.6 from 21 analysts, with a wide range from $40 to $125—essentially in line with the current share price. ^[30]
• StockAnalysis shows nine analysts with a “Strong Buy” consensus and an average target near $99.3 (roughly 8% upside), with targets spanning $72 to $125. ^[31]
• Public.com cites a 2025 price prediction around $97.2 and a Buy consensus from nine analysts. ^[32]
• Investing.com lists 20 analysts with an overall “Buy” rating and an average price target around $103.6, ranging from $62 to $120. ^[33]

Taken together, that suggests the “average” Wall Street view sees modest additional upside from today’s price, with a few high‑conviction bulls—like UBS—forecasting substantially more.

Earnings estimates and Zacks Rank

Zacks’ deep dive on Newmont highlights a powerful earnings recovery:

• For the current quarter, consensus EPS is about $1.51, roughly 7.9% higher year‑on‑year, with estimates nudging higher over the past month.
• For full‑year 2025, consensus EPS of around $6.05 would represent nearly 74% growth versus 2024.
• For 2026, the Street is looking for EPS around $7.16, another ~18% increase. ^[34]

Revenue is also expected to grow:

• 2025 sales are projected around $21.3 billion (+14% vs. 2024), rising to about $23.0 billion in 2026 (+8%). ^[35]

Those steady upward revisions are the main reason Zacks assigns Newmont its top‑tier Rank #1 (Strong Buy).

Technical view: buy point in sight

Investor’s Business Daily, which focuses heavily on chart patterns, says Newmont is forming a Stage 2 consolidation and is approaching a buy point at $98.58, after flashing an early entry signal near $90.90 when the stock regained its 50‑day moving average. ^[36]

IBD also gives Newmont:

• a Composite Rating of 99 (near the very top of all stocks they follow),
• a Relative Strength Rating of 95, and
• notes that mutual fund ownership has increased for three consecutive quarters, underscoring institutional support. ^[37]

Valuation: Still Reasonable After a Triple‑Digit Rally?

With a share price that has more than doubled this year, the next logical question is valuation.

A recent Seeking Alpha analysis comparing the three largest U.S.-listed gold miners pegs Newmont at roughly: ^[38]

• ~14–15× expected 2025 earnings,
• ~12× expected 2026 earnings, and
• about 10–11× cash flow, with a price‑to‑sales ratio around 4–5×.

Those are not bargain‑basement multiples, but they’re not extreme either when you consider:

• the near‑zero net debt position, ^[39]
• robust free cash flow at current gold prices, and
• the potential for further cost efficiencies as Newcrest integration matures.

However, these multiples do assume gold stays elevated. If bullion prices roll over, earnings and cash flow could reset lower, and today’s valuation would quickly look less forgiving.

Strategic Wildcard: Barrick’s North American IPO and Newmont’s JV Exposure

One of the more intriguing developments for Newmont investors actually comes from rival Barrick Mining.

On 1 December, Barrick announced it is exploring an IPO of a subsidiary holding its North American gold assets, including: ^[40]

• its stake in Nevada Gold Mines (NGM),
• the Pueblo Viejo operation in the Dominican Republic, and
• the high‑grade Fourmile discovery in Nevada.

Crucially, both NGM and Pueblo Viejo are joint ventures with Newmont. ^[41]

A source quoted by Reuters notes that the spinoff would effectively “package up the parts of Barrick the market is most excited about,” and even suggests the new vehicle could become a future acquisition target for Newmont. ^[42]

While any deal talk is speculative at this point, the IPO process could:

• Re‑rate the value of these joint‑venture assets,
• highlight the strategic importance of Nevada and Pueblo Viejo to Newmont’s long‑term production profile, and
• create optionality for future consolidation in what is already a highly concentrated industry.

For now, Barrick plans only a minority IPO while retaining majority control, with more details promised in February. ^[43]

Management, Workforce and the Newcrest Integration

Leadership and execution matter for a global miner with operations on multiple continents.

• Newmont’s long‑time CEO Tom Palmer will retire at the end of 2025, with current president Natascha Viljoen set to take over in early 2026. ^[44]
• The company is undertaking a large restructuring after the Newcrest deal, which a Reuters memo says impacts about 16% of roles. ^[45]

The combination of a management hand‑off and cost‑cutting program of this size carries execution risk, but also offers upside if synergies are realized and the new leadership team delivers.

Sentiment Checks: Options, Insiders, and Institutions

Beyond earnings and gold prices, a few other signals are worth noting:

• Options market: Benzinga’s options tracker flagged that large, sophisticated traders have been taking bullish positions in NEM options, suggesting some are positioning for further upside. ^[46]
• Institutional flows: A MarketBeat note shows one adviser, Legacy Capital Wealth Partners LLC, reported trimming its Newmont holdings—typical profit‑taking after a huge run rather than a broad vote of no confidence. ^[47]
• Insider activity: Director Bruce R. Brook filed a Form 144 to sell 2,080 shares (about $192,000) under a pre‑arranged Rule 10b5‑1 plan. This is a small transaction relative to Newmont’s size and looks more like routine diversification than a major red flag. ^[48]

Overall, sentiment from Wall Street and sophisticated traders remains constructive, though some early profit‑taking is appearing at the margins.

Key Risks for Newmont Investors

Even with the momentum on its side, Newmont isn’t a one‑way bet. Investors should keep several risks in mind:

1. Gold price volatility
   Newmont is highly sensitive to gold. A reversal in bullion—whether because the Fed delays cuts, real yields rise, or risk appetite shifts—would hit earnings and free cash flow disproportionately.
2. Integration and restructuring risk
   The Newcrest integration, workforce reductions, and asset divestitures are complex. Missteps could show up as cost overruns, productivity issues, or safety incidents. ^[49]
3. Political and regulatory risk
   Newmont operates in jurisdictions such as Ghana, Mexico, Peru, Papua New Guinea, and the Dominican Republic, where permitting, taxation, and community relations can change quickly.
4. Capital allocation and deal risk
   The company has been active in M&A. Any future bid for assets connected to Barrick’s planned North American IPO, or other large deals, would need to be carefully structured to avoid overpaying at the top of the cycle. ^[50]
5. Valuation & expectations
   After a triple‑digit run, expectations are high. Even a modest earnings miss or a pullback in gold prices could trigger sharp corrections as short‑term traders take profits.

What to Watch Next

For traders and long‑term shareholders alike, here are the main catalysts on the horizon:

• Federal Reserve meeting on 10 December – The market is heavily focused on whether the Fed will deliver a widely‑expected rate cut, which could further influence gold prices. ^[51]
• Gold price trend into year‑end 2025 – Sustained strength above current levels would reinforce Newmont’s free‑cash‑flow story; a reversal would test the bull case.
• Updates on Barrick’s North American IPO – Expect more clarity by February 2026; any hints of Newmont’s strategic intentions toward the JV assets will be closely watched. ^[52]
• Newmont’s Q4 2025 and full‑year results – Investors will want to see continued cost discipline, strong free cash flow, and more detail on 2026 guidance.
• CEO transition to Natascha Viljoen – Markets will look for continuity on capital allocation, dividends, and ESG commitments. ^[53]

Bottom Line: Is Newmont Stock Still a Buy After the 2025 Surge?

As of 1 December 2025, Newmont sits at the intersection of powerful macro tailwinds and company‑specific execution:

• Gold is near record highs, and many strategists see continued support from rate‑cut expectations, a weaker dollar, and macro uncertainty. ^[54]
• The company has streamlined its portfolio, sold non‑core assets, paid down debt, and is returning significant capital via dividends and buybacks. ^[55]
• Earnings estimates and analyst ratings are broadly bullish, with most targets clustered slightly above today’s price and a few outliers—like UBS at $125—projecting much more upside. ^[56]

On the other hand, the stock’s huge year‑to‑date gain means a lot of good news is already reflected in the price. Newmont is not “cheap” in absolute terms, and investors are effectively making a leveraged bet on gold staying strong, plus management continuing to execute on integration, cost cuts, and disciplined capital allocation.

For investors who:

• want exposure to gold,
• prefer a large, diversified miner with a strong balance sheet, and
• can tolerate above‑average volatility,

Newmont remains one of the most compelling names in the sector heading into 2026.

For more cautious investors, it may make sense to wait for a pullback or for the technicals (such as the IBD buy point near $98) and macro (Fed decisions, gold trend) to clarify before committing new capital. ^[57]

Either way, NEM is likely to stay at the center of the conversation whenever gold is moving.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Always do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial adviser before making investment decisions.

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