U.S. Bancorp (NYSE: USB) heads into December 2025 as one of the more closely watched U.S. regional banks: the stock just posted record quarterly revenue, yields a dividend above 4%, and carries a “Moderate Buy” / “Buy” consensus from Wall Street — but it also faces scrutiny over insider selling, regulatory risks and the usual credit-cycle worries. [1]
Below is a roundup of the latest news, forecasts and analysis as of December 1, 2025, together with what it all may mean for investors following USB.
Where U.S. Bancorp Stock Stands on December 1, 2025
As of the close on December 1, 2025, U.S. Bancorp shares traded at $49.41, up about 0.7% on the day, with after‑hours trading nudging the price slightly lower to around $49.12. [2]
Key snapshot metrics:
- Share price: $49.41 (Dec 1 close) [3]
- 52‑week range: roughly $35.18 – $53.5 [4]
- Market cap: about $76.8 billion [5]
- Trailing PE ratio: ~11.3x
- Forward PE: ~10.4x [6]
- Dividend yield: about 4.2–4.3% on an annual dividend of $2.08 per share [7]
Performance versus other regional banks has been mixed:
- Over the past 3 months, USB has slightly gained while the iShares U.S. Regional Banks ETF (IAT) has fallen roughly 4%, meaning USB has outperformed its peer basket in the short term. [8]
- Over the past 12 months, USB is still down about 8%, roughly in line with IAT, despite trading above its 200‑day moving average since July. [9]
In other words, investors are paying a mid‑teens multiple on forward earnings for a large regional bank that has stabilized after the 2023 banking turmoil but hasn’t yet reclaimed its prior highs.
Q3 2025: Record Revenue and an Earnings Beat
The core fundamental story right now comes from third‑quarter 2025 results, released on October 16, 2025.
According to U.S. Bancorp’s official earnings release: [10]
- Record net revenue:$7.329 billion, driven by a 9.5% rise in fee revenue.
- Net income:$2.001 billion, up 16.7% year‑over‑year.
- Diluted EPS:$1.22, versus $1.03 a year earlier — an 18.4% increase.
- Return on tangible common equity (RoTCE):18.6%.
- Return on average assets (ROA):1.17%.
- Efficiency ratio:57.2%, better than in Q3 2024.
- Net interest margin (NIM):2.75%, up 9 basis points quarter‑over‑quarter.
- Average total loans: up 1.4% year‑over‑year.
- CET1 ratio:10.9% as of September 30, 2025.
MarketBeat’s recap notes that USB beat consensus with EPS of $1.22 vs. $1.11 expected, and revenue of $7.34B vs. $7.17B expected, reinforcing the view that management is executing well in a still‑challenging rate and credit environment. [11]
In equity‑market terms, the earnings print was strong but not a game‑changer: Barchart points out that the stock actually fell about 1.7% on the day of the release, suggesting much of the good news was already priced in or that investors remain wary of the macro backdrop. [12]
Dividend Story: 4%+ Yield and an Active Payout Policy
Income investors care a lot about U.S. Bancorp because it’s historically been a reliable dividend name.
Recent developments:
- U.S. Bancorp raised its quarterly dividend to $0.52 per share in Q3, up from $0.50. That’s $2.08 annualized, equating to a yield of roughly 4.2–4.3% at current prices. [13]
- MarketBeat calculates the dividend payout ratio at around 47–48% of earnings, which leaves room for reinvestment and future increases if earnings track current forecasts. [14]
- Zacks notes that U.S. Bancorp has increased its dividend five times in the last five years, and currently sports a dividend yield of roughly 4.3%, placing it firmly in the “high‑yield” tier among large U.S. banks. [15]
The December 1 Zacks Analyst Blog, which highlights USB alongside KeyCorp and Columbia Banking System as “bank stocks with solid dividend yields to keep an eye on,” underscores this angle by emphasizing:
- USB’s strong growth in loans and deposits in recent years.
- Management’s push into AI and digital infrastructure as a way to boost efficiency and revenue.
- Expectations for 3–5% net revenue growth in 2024 and more than 200 basis points of positive operating leverage in 2025. [16]
For yield‑oriented investors, the combination of a 4%+ dividend and mid‑teens earnings growth forecasts is one of the key reasons USB remains on many watchlists.
Wall Street View: “Moderate Buy” / “Buy” with Mid‑$50s Price Targets
Consensus ratings and targets
Two of the most widely followed aggregators — MarketBeat and StockAnalysis.com — show broadly similar pictures as of December 1, 2025:
- MarketBeat:
- 22 analysts cover the stock.
- Consensus rating: “Moderate Buy”.
- Breakdown: 1 Strong Buy, 15 Buy, 5 Hold, 1 Sell.
- Average 12‑month price target:$54.45, implying about 10% upside from the current price. [17]
- StockAnalysis.com:
- 19 analysts in its universe.
- Consensus rating: “Buy”.
- Average target:$54.03, implying ~9.3% upside from $49.41.
- Target range: $43.50 (low) to $70 (high). [18]
Put simply, the Street sees single‑digit to low‑double‑digit upside over the next year, with a cluster of targets in the low‑to‑mid‑$50s and a high‑end bull case up near $70.
Recent analyst moves
Recent rating and target changes have mostly skewed positive:
- Oppenheimer maintained an Outperform rating on USB in a November 19 note, with Fintel data (via Nasdaq) pointing to an average one‑year price target of $56.73, or about 21% above the then‑current price of $46.80. [19]
- TD Cowen, DA Davidson, Citigroup, Bank of America and Truist all raised their USB targets in October, with one of the more bullish moves being Citigroup’s increase from $65 to $70 and an associated Strong Buy stance. [20]
Meanwhile, MarketBeat’s automated “pros and cons” summary (updated November 30) highlights:
- Bull case: Attractive valuation around $49 per share, a roughly 4.2% yield, strong market cap (~$76B), and projected EPS of about 4.38 for the current fiscal year. [21]
- Bear case:
- Notable insider selling (more on this below).
- A P/E ratio slightly above some peers (~11.2x).
- A debt‑to‑equity ratio of ~1.10, which can be a concern if rates spike again.
- Volatility, with shares swinging between $35.18 and the low‑$50s over the past year. [22]
Fresh December 1 Coverage: Dividends, Performance and Institutional Flows
Zacks: “3 bank stocks with solid dividend yields”
The December 1 Zacks Analyst Blog, re‑published on sites like Sharewise, frames U.S. Bancorp as one of three dividend‑rich banks positioned to benefit from: [23]
- Expectations of further Fed rate cuts and a more supportive economic backdrop.
- USB’s loan and deposit growth, especially in its core Midwest and Western markets.
- Management’s strategic focus on digital infrastructure and AI to cut costs and expand services.
- A Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) and a dividend yield around 4.3%, with a multi‑year history of payout hikes.
Zacks also underscores the bank’s balance sheet strength, noting long‑term debt of roughly $62.5B, short‑term borrowings of $15.4B, and cash and due from banks of $66.6B as of September 30, 2025 — a liquidity profile it calls “decent” for supporting dividends and growth. [24]
Barchart: Performance vs. other regional banks
A Barchart column, syndicated across Yahoo Finance and other outlets on December 1, focuses specifically on how USB stacks up against other regional bank stocks: [25]
- USB’s stock is down about 8–9% over the past year, broadly in line with the iShares U.S. Regional Banks ETF (IAT).
- Over the last three months, however, USB has slightly gained while IAT has fallen about 3.9%, indicating near‑term outperformance.
- The stock has been trading above its 200‑day moving average since July, a technical sign of a recovering trend.
- Barchart reiterates a “Moderate Buy” consensus and a mean price target around $55.40, or roughly 13% upside from current levels.
MarketBeat: Institutional buying vs. insider selling
Also dated December 1, MarketBeat highlights a new $4.13 million stake in U.S. Bancorp by Leuthold Group LLC, equivalent to 91,347 shares purchased in Q2. At the same time, the article notes that roughly 77.6% of USB shares are held by institutional investors, signalling deep participation from funds. [26]
However, the same piece flags significant insider selling:
- EVP James L. Chosy sold 26,909 shares at an average price of about $46.86, trimming his stake by roughly 10.6%.
- Chairman Andrew Cecere sold 140,445 shares around $46.34, cutting his holdings by about 9.4%. [27]
Insider selling doesn’t automatically mean trouble — insiders sell for many reasons — but combined with a stock that’s recovered sharply from its 2023 lows, it gives some analysts and investors pause.
Growth, Digital Strategy and New Products
Beyond pure numbers, U.S. Bancorp has been actively leaning into payments, embedded finance and digital services, which is showing up in fee income and in the narrative around the stock.
Recent initiatives highlighted in earnings materials and Business Wire releases include: [28]
- Stablecoin and crypto custody:
- U.S. Bank has been selected to provide custody services for reserves backing payment stablecoins issued by Anchorage Digital Bank, a federally chartered crypto‑native institution. This follows U.S. Bancorp’s decision earlier in 2025 to restart its bitcoin custody service after a multi‑year pause, citing a more supportive regulatory and political environment. [29]
- New credit products and BNPL‑style offerings:
- Launch of the U.S. Bank Split™ World Mastercard®, a card that automatically converts purchases into no‑fee, no‑interest equal monthly payments, effectively offering a built‑in “buy now, pay later” (BNPL) alternative. [30]
- Extension of co‑branded credit card partnerships, including AAA and Edward Jones, expanding reach to millions of customers. [31]
- Treasury and cash‑management innovations:
- An AI‑driven cash forecasting tool built with Kyriba to help corporate clients manage liquidity in real time.
- Enhancements to SinglePoint, U.S. Bank’s treasury management platform, and embedded accounts‑payable and payroll tools for 1.4 million small‑business customers. [32]
Taken together, these moves support management’s claim that non‑interest income — from card fees, payment processing, investment management and treasury services — is a key growth engine, and help explain the 9.5% jump in fee revenue in Q3 2025. [33]
Rate‑Cut Hopes, Fair Value and Long‑Term Forecasts
Interest‑rate expectations are central to the USB story. A late‑November Simply Wall St article notes that USB shares reacted to comments from New York Fed President John Williams, which markets interpreted as increasing the odds of a rate cut in December 2025. [34]
Simply Wall St’s model:
- Projects USB’s revenue rising to about $32.6 billion and earnings to $7.4 billion by 2028, implying 8.5% annual revenue growth from current levels.
- Estimates a “fair value” of around $55.63 per share, suggesting roughly 14% upside from recent prices. [35]
However, the same piece points out that community fair‑value estimates range widely from about $39 to $85, underscoring how sensitive valuations are to assumptions about:
- The timing and pace of Fed rate cuts.
- Credit quality, especially in commercial real estate.
- Competition from fintechs and big‑tech platforms in payments and lending. [36]
Analyst forecast data from StockAnalysis shows similarly robust expectations: [37]
- Revenue 2025: ~$28.8B, up about 14.9% from 2024.
- Revenue 2026: ~$30.1B, another 4.4% increase.
- EPS 2025:$4.58, up 20.8% from 2024’s $3.79.
- EPS 2026:$4.96, up 8.3% from 2025.
If those numbers materialize, today’s valuation of roughly 10–11x forward earnings and a 4%+ yield looks reasonable, even modestly cheap, relative to the broader market.
Risks: Credit, Regulation, Leverage and Volatility
U.S. Bancorp itself dedicates a lengthy section of its Q3 release to risk factors, and third‑party analysis echoes many of the same themes. [38]
Key risks flagged in recent commentary include:
- Credit cycle and commercial real estate
- A weakening macro environment, higher unemployment or stress in commercial real estate could push up charge‑offs and eat into USB’s strong earnings.
- Management notes that credit quality remains solid with improvements in net charge‑off ratios, but acknowledges that this is subject to macro uncertainty. [39]
- Interest‑rate and margin risk
- If rate cuts arrive faster or deeper than expected, net interest margin could come under pressure, especially if funding costs don’t fall as quickly as asset yields.
- Conversely, if rates stay “higher for longer,” deposit competition and funding costs could bite.
- Regulatory and capital requirements
- U.S. Bancorp highlights ongoing uncertainty around capital and liquidity rules, FDIC assessments and new oversight standards for large regional banks. All could affect return on equity and constrain shareholder returns. [40]
- Leverage and funding
- The debt‑to‑equity ratio of ~1.10 and reliance on wholesale funding leave USB sensitive to changes in credit spreads and regulatory capital treatment, particularly if markets become more volatile. [41]
- Insider selling and volatility
- Recent insider sales by senior executives, while not necessarily bearish in isolation, contribute to a more cautious narrative, especially when combined with a 52‑week trading range from the mid‑$30s to the mid‑$50s. [42]
These are broadly in line with sector‑wide concerns affecting other large regionals such as PNC and KEY, but USB’s diversified fee income and strong capital ratios have so far made it more resilient than many smaller peers. [43]
Key Numbers at a Glance (as of December 1, 2025)
- Price: $49.41
- Market cap: ~$76.8B [44]
- Trailing PE: ~11.3x
- Forward PE: ~10.4x
- Dividend: $2.08 per share annually
- Dividend yield: ~4.2–4.3% [45]
- Q3 2025 EPS: $1.22 (vs. $1.11 est.)
- Q3 2025 net revenue: $7.329B (record) [46]
- Q3 2025 RoTCE: 18.6%
- CET1 ratio: 10.9%
- Analyst consensus rating: “Moderate Buy” / “Buy”
- Average 12‑month target: ~mid‑$50s (roughly 9–10% upside) [47]
Bottom Line: How the USB Setup Looks Today
Putting everything together:
- Fundamentals are strong. Record revenue, double‑digit EPS growth, rising fee income and solid capital metrics paint a picture of a bank that has digested past shocks and is growing again. [48]
- The dividend is a major attraction. A yield above 4% with a history of increases — and payout ratios under 50% — gives U.S. Bancorp a clear value‑income profile compared with many other large caps. [49]
- Analysts are constructive but not euphoric. Most see single‑digit to low‑double‑digit upside over the next year, with a few outliers targeting the high‑$60s or $70, but also at least one sell rating in the mix. [50]
- Risks remain real. Insider selling, sector volatility, regulatory changes and macro uncertainty — especially around credit and CRE — mean USB is not a “set‑and‑forget” story despite its dividend appeal. [51]
For investors following U.S. Bancorp, December 1, 2025 finds the stock trading in the high‑$40s with:
- A credible path to continued earnings growth,
- A healthy capital and liquidity profile, and
- A valuation that many models call modestly undervalued, but that still depends heavily on how the Fed, credit cycle and regulators behave over the next 12–24 months. [52]
As always, this article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Before making any investment decisions, consider your own objectives, risk tolerance and time horizon, and consult a qualified financial professional if needed.
References
1. www.usbank.com, 2. stockanalysis.com, 3. stockanalysis.com, 4. stockanalysis.com, 5. stockanalysis.com, 6. stockanalysis.com, 7. stockanalysis.com, 8. www.barchart.com, 9. www.barchart.com, 10. www.usbank.com, 11. www.marketbeat.com, 12. www.barchart.com, 13. www.marketbeat.com, 14. www.marketbeat.com, 15. www.sharewise.com, 16. www.sharewise.com, 17. www.marketbeat.com, 18. stockanalysis.com, 19. www.nasdaq.com, 20. www.marketbeat.com, 21. www.marketbeat.com, 22. www.marketbeat.com, 23. www.sharewise.com, 24. www.sharewise.com, 25. www.barchart.com, 26. www.marketbeat.com, 27. www.marketbeat.com, 28. www.usbank.com, 29. www.usbank.com, 30. simplywall.st, 31. stockanalysis.com, 32. www.usbank.com, 33. www.usbank.com, 34. simplywall.st, 35. simplywall.st, 36. simplywall.st, 37. stockanalysis.com, 38. s203.q4cdn.com, 39. www.usbank.com, 40. s203.q4cdn.com, 41. www.marketbeat.com, 42. www.marketbeat.com, 43. www.barchart.com, 44. stockanalysis.com, 45. stockanalysis.com, 46. www.usbank.com, 47. www.marketbeat.com, 48. www.usbank.com, 49. www.marketbeat.com, 50. www.marketbeat.com, 51. www.marketbeat.com, 52. simplywall.st
