Lynas Rare Earths (ASX: LYC) Stock: December 2025 Update on Power Shocks, New Projects and the 2026 Outlook

As of 2 December 2025, Lynas Rare Earths Limited (ASX: LYC; OTC: LYSCF) sits right in the crosshairs of geopolitics, energy transition hype and some very unglamorous Australian power problems.

At midday AEST, Lynas shares were trading around A$14.97, up about 1.8% on the day, giving the company a market value near A$14.8 billion. Over the past 12 months the stock has gained roughly 118%, swinging between a 52‑week low of A$6.16 and a high of A$21.96. ^[1]

Here’s how the latest news, forecasts and analysis stack up as of 2 December 2025.

Lynas share price now: big run, awkward earnings math

Data from StockAnalysis shows Lynas at A$14.97 at 12:39 p.m. AEST on 2 December, with a 117.59% one‑year gain and trailing twelve‑month revenue of A$556.5 million alongside net profit of A$8 million. ^[2]

That odd combination (strong revenue growth, tiny profit) produces a comically large trailing P/E above 1,800, while the forward P/E is around 36, based on analyst earnings forecasts. ^[3]

A short‑term technical model from StockInvest.us labels LYC a “sell candidate” in the near term: it sees the stock stuck in a wide but falling short‑term trend, with a statistical expectation of about ‑3.8% drift over three months, and a 90% probability range between roughly A$12.42 and A$20.39. For Tuesday 2 December specifically, their system projected a “fair” opening near A$14.64 and an intraday trading band between A$14.25 and A$15.15. ^[4]

So: fundamentally expensive on trailing earnings, technically wobbly, but still priced as a strategically important asset.

FY25 results: revenue up 20%, profit almost wiped out

Lynas’ full‑year FY25 results (year to 30 June 2025) tell the story of an aggressive growth phase colliding with rising costs. ^[5]

Key numbers from the company’s August results release:

Revenue: up from A$463.3m to A$556.5m (+20%)
Net profit after tax: down from A$84.5m to A$8.0m (about ‑90%)
EBITDA: fell from A$132.1m to A$101.2m, despite higher revenue
Cost of sales: up 29% to A$426.7m, as new assets ramped and NdPr volumes grew
Closing cash: dropped from A$523.8m to A$166.5m, largely because Lynas spent heavily on its “Lynas 2025” growth projects and then launched a A$750m fully underwritten equity raising to fund the next phase. ^[6]

Operationally, the picture was better:

NdPr (neodymium‑praseodymium) sales volumes rose 18% year‑on‑year to 6,555 tonnes, even as total rare earth oxide (REO) volumes fell 10% because Lynas deliberately cut back lower‑value lanthanum/cerium sales. ^[7]
The China domestic NdPr price rose from about US$44/kg in June 2024 to US$55/kg in June 2025, and continued to climb in the September quarter. ^[8]

Management’s explanation: FY25 was the “switch‑on” year for multiple big projects — the Mt Weld expansion, the Kalgoorlie processing facility, and major capacity and heavy rare earth upgrades in Malaysia — so depreciation and ramp‑up costs crushed accounting profit even while the underlying business scaled up. ^[9]

Those projects culminate in the “Towards 2030” strategy, officially launched with the results:

“Harvest”: squeeze better returns from the Lynas 2025 investments by ramping up new assets and optimising costs.
“Grow”:
- Add resource and scale (more Mt Weld development plus new feedstock, likely ionic clay deposits).
- Expand heavy rare earth (HRE) separation in Malaysia and boost NdPr separation capacity to a targeted 12 kt per year.
- Move deeper downstream into metal and magnet manufacturing via partnerships, JVs and equity stakes. ^[10]

Crucially, Lynas is now the only commercial producer of heavy rare earth oxides (notably dysprosium and terbium) outside China, thanks to its new HRE circuit in Malaysia. ^[11]

Q1 FY26: 66% revenue jump, but a miss versus expectations

For the September 2025 quarter (Q1 FY26), Lynas reported: ^[12]

Sales revenue:A$200.2m, up 66% year‑on‑year and about 18% higher than the June quarter.
Total rare earth oxide output:3,993 tonnes, including 2,003 tonnes of NdPr.
However, the revenue figure missed consensus estimates around A$230m (Visible Alpha), according to Reuters. ^[13]

CEO Amanda Lacaze told investors that demand from existing and emerging customers remains strong, and that Lynas can be selective about which customers it serves and at what price — especially for heavy rare earths, where supply outside China is extremely tight. ^[14]

Australian brokerage Barrenjoey countered that the quarter showed downstream demand wasn’t as strong as its earlier “supply‑anxiety” thesis had assumed, and that ramp‑up of dysprosium and terbium availability was taking longer than expected. ^[15]

Finimize, in a November asset snapshot, framed the quarter as evidence Lynas is scaling, but pointed out that investors are now paying for a lot of future growth and policy support in the price. ^[16]

Kalgoorlie power disruptions: a one‑month production hole

The big new negative in late November: repeated power outages at the Kalgoorlie Rare Earths Processing Facility in Western Australia.

In a 25 November ASX announcement, Lynas disclosed that: ^[17]

The plant, supplied via Western Power’s Eastern Goldfields Load Permissive Scheme, has seen a “significant increase” in power disruptions during 2025.
Outage frequency and duration in November were high enough to cause “significant lost production” of Mixed Rare Earth Carbonate (MREC), the intermediate product sent to Malaysia.
Lynas estimates a shortfall equivalent to around one month of production for the current quarter.
The shortfall can’t be offset by Malaysia ramping up, because the Malaysian kilns are currently shut for major scheduled maintenance.
The company still expects to meet “key customer needs” by drawing down inventories.

Reuters notes that this production hole is a setback just as the West is trying to build non‑Chinese supply, and that finished goods output in Malaysia this quarter will be lower, reflecting the constrained feed. ^[18]

Broker reactions:

Canaccord Genuity cut its December‑quarter NdPr output forecast from 2.7 kt to about 1.8 kt, trimmed expected quarterly revenue to around A$220m (from A$280m), and reduced its FY26 EBITDA forecast from A$567m to A$524m — but kept a price target of A$15.55, close to the current share price. TS2 Tech
A Jefferies note summarised by MarketScreener estimated roughly one month of lost oxide production, echoing Lynas’ own guidance, while maintaining a broadly positive long‑term stance. TS2 Tech

A detailed ABC News piece underlined that Kalgoorlie sits at the fragile tail of a 655‑km transmission line, and that a broader set of miners in the Goldfields are suffering similar issues while waiting for a A$150m grid‑scale battery project that won’t be ready until 2029. TS2 Tech+1

Lynas is now working with the WA government and Western Power, and urgently evaluating off‑grid generation. If an off‑grid solution is implemented quickly, management says the lost production could be recovered within FY26. ^[19]

Heavy rare earths: Malaysia expansion and Texas uncertainty

While Kalgoorlie wrestles with electrons, Lynas is doubling down on heavy rare earths.

New heavy REE facility in Malaysia

On 28 October, Lynas announced plans for a new heavy rare earth separation facility in Malaysia. Reuters reports that: ^[20]

The plant will cost about A$180m and can separate up to 5,000 tonnes of heavy rare‑earth feedstock per year.
Feed will come mainly from Mt Weld and potentially other sources.
Lynas is in talks with various offtake partners to lock in contracts for an expanded range of heavy REE products.

CEO Amanda Lacaze said demand for heavy rare earths is “high” and Lynas can be choosy about customers and price levels. ^[21]

Combined with the existing heavy REE circuit at Gebeng, Malaysia, this cements Lynas’ status as the primary commercial supplier of heavy rare earth oxides outside China, a strategic point repeatedly flagged in Reuters and policy reports. ^[22]

The troubled Texas project

The more complicated story is Lynas’ heavy rare earth processing project in Seadrift, Texas, backed by a U.S. Department of Defense funding agreement.

In its FY25 results, Lynas said: ^[23]

The DoD contract is expenditure‑based, supporting construction of a heavy REE facility.
A wastewater permitting issue at the Seadrift site forced Lynas to identify an alternative technical pathway, which will increase capital costs.
There is now “significant uncertainty” over whether the Texas plant will proceed, and if so, in what form.
Lynas is negotiating with the DoD on commercial offtake agreements for production from its operating assets instead, but there is no guarantee those agreements will be reached.

Reuters earlier this year framed the situation as a combination of profit slump and project uncertainty, with the Texas plant emblematic of how hard it is to build complex rare earth facilities in jurisdictions with tight environmental rules. ^[24]

So the expansion story is now clearly Malaysia‑first, with the U.S. project demoted from “flagship growth asset” to “still under negotiation with Uncle Sam”.

Downstream magnet push: JS Link in Malaysia, Noveon in the US

Rare earths are only interesting if they become magnets, so Lynas is trying to plug itself straight into magnet supply chains.

JS Link “super magnet” plant in Malaysia

In July 2025 Lynas signed an MOU with JS Link for a magnet facility in Malaysia. ^[25]

By November, Malaysian media reported that a RM600 million (~A$190m) “super magnet” plant in Pahang — linked to the Lynas–JS Link partnership — had secured land and was advancing, with the government pitching it as part of Malaysia’s ambition to become a key rare earth hub by 2030. ^[26]

The idea: Lynas provides a stable, traceable supply of REO feed from Mt Weld and Kalgoorlie to Malaysia; JS Link turns that into high‑performance magnets for EVs and wind turbines; Malaysia bans raw rare earth exports and keeps more value onshore.

Noveon Magnetics partnership in the US

On 8 October 2025, Lynas announced a non‑binding MoU with Noveon Magnetics, a Texas‑based producer of sintered NdFeB magnets. Reuters and company statements describe the deal as a plan to create a “mine‑to‑magnet” supply chain for U.S. defence, automotive and industrial customers. ^[27]

Key features:

Lynas would supply both light and heavy rare earth materials.
Noveon would manufacture finished magnets in the U.S.
Both firms intend to work with the U.S. government on funding and long‑term supply agreements.

This is essentially a workaround: even as the dedicated Texas separation project wobbles, Lynas is leaning into partnership‑driven magnet supply using its existing assets plus Malaysian HRE expansions.

Malaysia licence and regulatory risk: clock ticking towards March 2026

Lynas’ advanced materials plant in Gebeng, Malaysia remains politically sensitive.

In 2023 Malaysia updated Lynas’ operating licence to allow continued import of lanthanide concentrate and processing through March 2026, provided radioactive waste is made safe. ^[28]

Recent developments:

The Edge Malaysia reported in October 2025 that the company’s permanent disposal facility for low‑level radioactive waste was about 10% behind schedule, and reminded readers that the licence is due to expire in March 2026. ^[29]
Malaysiakini and environmental groups criticised government indications that it is considering extending Lynas’ licence beyond 2026, arguing that previous promises to phase out radioactive waste‑producing activities are being softened. ^[30]
A Straits Times report said Malaysia is banking on Lynas expansion and a magnet plant to become a “vital cog” in the rare earth supply chain, while noting ongoing pollution and waste concerns. ^[31]

Finimize flags the March 2026 licence decision as one of the critical “watch points” for the stock over the next 12–18 months. ^[32]

Bottom line: Malaysia remains both Lynas’ core processing hub and a non‑trivial political risk.

The macro backdrop: China’s export controls and Western stockpiling

It’s impossible to understand Lynas without zooming out to the rare earth chessboard.

A few macro pieces that feed directly into the Lynas investment case:

China has tightened export controls on several rare earth elements and magnet‑making technologies since late 2024, and introduced further restrictions in 2025, explicitly in response to U.S. tariffs and technology curbs. ^[33]
Beijing still accounts for roughly 70% of global rare earth mine output and over 80% of processing capacity, according to USGS and diplomatic analyses. ^[34]
Policy think‑tanks like CSIS warn that new Chinese restrictions are a direct threat to U.S. defence supply chains, putting a premium on non‑China suppliers such as Lynas. ^[35]
Australia has launched a strategic critical minerals reserve and is considering price‑floor mechanisms to support projects, a move that previously sent local rare earth stocks sharply higher. ^[36]
The EU’s new ResourceEU initiative is exploring pooled funding for critical raw materials projects, which analysts see as potentially supportive for non‑Chinese producers, though there’s no direct EU investment deal with Lynas at this stage, despite investor speculation. ^[37]

DiscoveryAlert notes that 2025 has seen “unprecedented investor interest” in non‑Chinese rare earth miners, with Lynas’ share price nearly tripling from its 2024 lows as investors pay a security premium for its role in diversified supply chains. ^[38]

All of this is good for long‑term demand and bargaining power — but it also means Lynas trades as a geopolitical asset, not just a mining stock. That can cut both ways.

Analyst targets and valuation: bulls, bears and quants

Opinions on Lynas are sharply split.

From recent broker and research snapshots compiled in late November: Reuters+3TS2 Tech+3Finimize+3

On the bullish side

UBS recently upgraded Lynas from Neutral to Buy, lifting its target price to A$17.80 (about 19% above the current A$14.97). The broker argues that accelerating ex‑China demand and Lynas’ position as the largest producer outside China justify a more optimistic stance.
Morgan Stanley keeps an Equal‑weight rating but with an even higher target around A$19.45 — roughly 25–30% above today’s price — implying meaningful upside if execution and pricing hold.
Simply Wall St modelling suggests a “fair value” near A$15.94, a mid‑single‑digit premium to the latest price, driven by strong projected revenue and earnings growth out to 2028 and an “excellent balance sheet”. TS2 Tech+1
Finimize describes Lynas as “in a strong spot as the go‑to non‑China supplier”, citing vertical integration and magnet partnerships as hard‑to‑replicate advantages.

On the cautious / bearish side

The Bull, a local tip sheet, rates Lynas SELL, stressing that Q1 FY26 revenue missed expectations and that the share price had already sprinted from A$21.64 in mid‑October down to the mid‑teens by late November, even before the Kalgoorlie outage shock. The conclusion: the stock still looks expensive after a huge year‑to‑date run; time to consider taking profits. TS2 Tech
Canaccord Genuity trimmed near‑term production and EBITDA forecasts after the power issues, signalling that FY26 earnings are vulnerable to further operational hiccups. TS2 Tech+1
The StockInvest.us technical model, as noted earlier, tags Lynas a short‑term “sell candidate”, expecting choppy trading inside a wide range rather than a clean trend higher. ^[39]
Finimize’s bear‑case highlights four main risks:
- Commodity price risk if NdPr and heavy REE prices slump.
- Execution and capital intensity, with capex running around A$50–60m per quarter.
- Regulatory uncertainty in Malaysia.
- Valuation vulnerability if expectations reset after any earnings miss. ^[40]

Add it all up, and consensus 12‑month targets cluster only slightly above the current price (around the mid‑A$15s on Fintel’s compilation), while individual broker targets span a band from “take profits now” to “30% upside”. TS2 Tech

This is what a market argument looks like.

Key catalysts to watch into 2026

Looking forward from 2 December 2025, several events and trends could move Lynas shares:

Next earnings updates (early 2026)
Different data providers list slightly different dates for the next result, but in practice investors will focus on:
- How quickly Kalgoorlie production recovers after the power disruptions.
- Whether September’s strong revenue momentum carries into the December quarter despite the outage. ^[41]
Off‑grid power solution at Kalgoorlie
Any concrete announcement of dedicated generation or battery installations that de‑risk the plant’s power supply would likely be welcomed by the market. ^[42]
Progress on the new Malaysian heavy REE facility
Approvals, construction milestones or offtake deals for the A$180m plant will signal how fast Lynas can grow its heavy rare earth footprint. ^[43]
Fate of the Texas project and U.S. offtake agreements
Clarity on whether the Seadrift plant goes ahead — and whether Lynas can instead lock in long‑term DoD offtake from its existing operations — will shape perceptions of U.S. exposure. ^[44]
JS Link and Noveon downstream deals
Final, binding agreements — and evidence of magnets actually rolling off production lines using Lynas feedstock — would help justify the “mine‑to‑magnet” premium in the valuation. ^[45]
Malaysia licence decision (by March 2026)
Probably the single biggest binary risk. A smooth renewal, even with strict conditions, could remove a major overhang; any surprise restrictions or delays would be a serious negative shock. ^[46]
Further shifts in China export policy and Western subsidies
Renewed Chinese export controls or new U.S./EU/Australian support schemes for rare earths could re‑inflate the “security premium” for Lynas and peers — or, if tensions ease, let some air out of the trade. ^[47]

The bottom line

On 2 December 2025, Lynas Rare Earths is priced as a strategic asset with real operational growing pains:

The company has scaled up production, finished a major capex cycle, and is pushing downstream into magnet partnerships.
It also faces volatile power supply at a key plant, uncertainty over a flagship U.S. project, and a hard deadline on a politically sensitive Malaysian licence.
The share price has more than doubled in a year, trailing earnings look anaemic thanks to ramp‑up costs, and analysts are openly arguing about whether there’s still upside left. ^[48]