Woodside Energy (ASX: WDS) Stock on 2 December 2025: Strike Risks, LNG Megaprojects and 2032 Growth Targets

Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS, NYSE: WDS) enters December 2025 sitting at the crossroads of massive LNG growth ambitions, rising labour tensions and intensifying climate scrutiny. For investors tracking the Woodside share price, the next 12–18 months look like a high‑stakes execution test rather than a quiet dividend hold.

Woodside share price today: steady but not spectacular

By early afternoon on 2 December 2025, Woodside shares were trading around A$25.47 on the ASX, up about 1.2% on the day. That puts the company’s market capitalisation near A$47.8 billion, with a trailing P/E ratio of roughly 10.7 and a dividend yield around 6.4–6.5% based on the last twelve months of payouts. ^[1]

Over the past year, Woodside has delivered a low single‑digit total return – roughly 3–4% including price movement – broadly in line with or slightly ahead of the Australian market and the local oil and gas sector. ^[2]

On the New York Stock Exchange, Woodside’s American Depositary Shares (NYSE: WDS) last closed at about US$16.49 on 1 December, with a small gain in after‑hours trading. ^[3]

Volatility has been relatively modest: Simply Wall St estimates average weekly price moves of around 3.6–4%, markedly lower than the broader Australian energy sector. ^[4]

2025 so far: production up, prices softer, dividends flowing

Operationally, 2025 has been busy.

In January, Woodside guided to broadly flat production for 2025 versus 2024, after reporting a softer realised price in the fourth quarter of 2024. The cautious outlook saw shares fall on the day. ^[5]
In Q2 2025, the company reported production of 50.1 million barrels of oil equivalent (MMboe) – up 2% from Q1 – and highlighted a US$1.9 billion infrastructure deal with Stonepeak tied to its Louisiana LNG project. ^[6]

The most recent numbers, from the third‑quarter 2025 report released on 22 October, show:

Q3 production of 50.8 MMboe (552 Mboe/d), up 1% on Q2.
Full‑year 2025 production guidance raised from 188–195 MMboe to 192–197 MMboe on stronger performance, particularly from the Sangomar oil project in Senegal.
Average realised price of US$60 per barrel of oil equivalent, supported by diversified pricing and optimisation.
Pluto LNG reliability of 100% for the quarter. ^[7]

Management also sharpened its cost and capex guidance:

Unit production cost guidance was cut to US$7.6–8.1 per boe (from US$8.0–8.5).
Capital expenditure excluding Louisiana LNG was trimmed to US$3.7–4.0 billion, with the company emphasising timing shifts rather than cost blowouts. ^[8]

On the financial side, trailing‑twelve‑month revenue sits around AU$21 billion with AU$4.5 billion in earnings, implying a net margin above 20%. ^[9]

Woodside remains a high‑yield stock: an interim dividend of US$0.69 per share was declared for the first half of 2025, fully franked and paid in September, contributing to that ~6.5% trailing yield. ^[10]

Megaprojects: Scarborough, Pluto 2, Louisiana LNG, Beaumont and Trion

The investment case for Woodside in 2025–26 is really a bet on its suite of mega‑projects.

From the Q3 update and recent company disclosures: ^[11]

Scarborough Energy Project – 91% complete, targeting first LNG in the second half of 2026.
Pluto 2 LNG – expansion of the existing Pluto facility in Western Australia, designed to process Scarborough gas. First LNG is also expected in H2 2026. ^[12]
Beaumont New Ammonia Project (Texas) – 97% complete in Q3, with first ammonia production targeted from late 2025, and a pivot to lower‑carbon ammonia from 2026. ^[13]
Trion oil project (Mexico) – 43% complete, with first oil targeted for 2028. ^[14]
Louisiana LNG project (U.S. Gulf Coast) – three‑train facility 19% complete overall in Q3, with Train 1 at 25% and first LNG targeted in 2029. ^[15]

These projects are supported by a growing web of offtake and partnership deals:

In October, Reuters reported that U.S. pipeline giant Williams agreed to invest US$1.9 billion in Louisiana LNG facilities and a connected pipeline, taking a 10% stake in the project’s holding company and 80% of the Driftwood pipeline while paying Woodside US$378 million upfront. Woodside plans to sell further equity to reduce its stake in the project to around 50%. ^[16]
Stonepeak’s earlier US$1.9 billion acquisition of 40% of Louisiana LNG Infrastructure LLC further de‑risked funding for the project. ^[17]
In June, Woodside signed a winter‑focused LNG supply deal with Japan’s JERA, Japan’s largest power generator, adding to its portfolio of long‑term Asian buyers. ^[18]

Capital Markets Day 2025: Woodside’s 2032 roadmap

At its Capital Markets Day (CMD) on 5 November 2025, Woodside set out an aggressive growth and capital returns story designed to reassure investors that the current wave of capital spending will pay off. ^[19]

Key points from CMD and subsequent commentary:

Sales volumes are expected to rise by around 50% to 300 MMboe per year by 2032, up from 203.5 MMboe in 2024, as projects like Scarborough, Pluto 2, Louisiana LNG, Trion, Sangomar and Beaumont ramp up. ^[20]
Net operating cash flow is targeted at roughly US$9 billion per year by the early 2030s, implying a compound annual growth rate of about 6% from 2024. ^[21]
Management outlined a “pathway to a 50% increase in dividends per share from 2032”, assuming successful execution and supportive commodity prices. ^[22]

Strategically, Woodside grouped its priorities into:

Maximise cash from existing low‑cost LNG and oil assets.
Deliver the current wave of major LNG and oil projects on time and on budget.
Create new energy and carbon‑solution businesses, such as low‑carbon ammonia (Beaumont) and hydrogen initiatives like H2Perth. ^[23]

For anyone modelling the stock, these CMD numbers effectively anchor the long‑term bull case: if Woodside can hit its volume and cash‑flow targets while maintaining a high payout ratio, the current mid‑teens total‑return expectations from some brokers look achievable. The hard part, of course, is the “if”.

New frontier: Greater Sunrise LNG concept with Timor‑Leste

On 25 November 2025, Woodside announced a cooperation agreement with Timor‑Leste’s Ministry of Petroleum and Mineral Resources to progress a Timor‑based LNG concept for the Greater Sunrise gas fields. ^[24]

The agreement outlines:

A greenfield LNG development of about 5 Mtpa, including a local gas facility and a helium extraction plant.
A high‑level work plan targeting first LNG between 2032 and 2035.
Joint commercial and technical “maturation activities” running alongside negotiations on fiscal, regulatory and legal frameworks with both Timor‑Leste and Australia. ^[25]

While Greater Sunrise has been politically and commercially stalled for decades, the new agreement signals that Woodside still sees long‑dated optionality in the field – and it adds yet another potential LNG project into the back half of the 2030s.

Labour risk: Pluto 2 LNG strike ballot approved

The glossy CMD slides are only one side of the story. On the ground, Woodside is facing a serious industrial relations challenge at Pluto 2.

On 24 November 2025, Australia’s Fair Work Commission approved a union request for a strike ballot at the Pluto LNG 2 construction project in Western Australia. ^[26]

Key details:

The ballot must be held by 4 December, and – if workers vote to approve – a strike could take place before year‑end, potentially slowing work at a project that is supposed to ship its first LNG cargo in H2 2026. ^[27]
The Offshore Alliance (Maritime Union of Australia + Australian Workers’ Union) argues that Pluto 2 workers are paid about 30% less than workers on Chevron’s Wheatstone LNG project, adjusting for inflation, and is seeking a significant pay increase. ^[28]
Several unions have lodged separate applications for strike ballots linked to the same enterprise agreement, increasing the potential for coordinated action. ^[29]

For investors, the risk is not simply higher labour costs; it’s the prospect of schedule slippage on Pluto 2 and Scarborough, which are central to Woodside’s 2026–2030 cash‑flow story.

ESG and reputational pressure is rising

Woodside has long been a lightning rod for climate activists, and 2025 has added fresh pressure points.

University partnership backlash

In November, The Guardian reported that Monash University will end its A$43 million partnership with Woodside at the end of 2025 following sustained protests from staff and students. The deal, in place since 2019, gave Woodside naming rights to a flagship “Woodside Building for Technology and Design” on Monash’s Melbourne campus. ^[30]

The building will be renamed in 2026, and while both Monash and Woodside described the decision as “mutual and respectful”, the campaign has been framed by critics as a win against “fossil fuel sponsorship”. ^[31]

Super funds accused of fossil fuel “greenwashing”

On 2 December, Canberra CityNews reported on Market Forces research showing that Australia’s 30 largest super funds collectively invest over A$33 billion in companies expanding fossil fuels, including Woodside, BHP, Whitehaven Coal and Santos. The activist group’s “Fossil Fuel Expansion Index” (FFX200) argues that funds are “greenwashing on an industrial scale” while keeping members exposed to climate transition risk. ^[32]

Although the story targets super funds rather than Woodside directly, being singled out as one of the key “expansion” companies reinforces the company’s central role in the climate‑risk debate – and potentially keeps pressure on institutional investors to demand stronger climate commitments over time.

Valuation and broker views: modest upside, chunky yield

Different analytical lenses currently paint Woodside as anywhere from deeply undervalued to fairly priced but ex‑growth.

Fundamental screens

Simply Wall St’s model rates Woodside as trading well below its estimate of fair value, with the stock on ~10.6x earnings and 2.3x sales, a net margin above 20% and a dividend yield around 6.4%. However, it also notes that earnings are forecast to decline by roughly 5% per year over the next three years, and that the dividend (payout ratio ~68%) is not fully covered by free cash flow. ^[33]
StockAnalysis shows similar numbers: A$25.47 share price, A$47.83 billion market cap, 1‑year gain of ~3.9%, 52‑week range A$18.61–27.30 and a 6.49% dividend yield, with next earnings due in late January 2026. ^[34]

Sell‑side and independent research

Data collated by Simply Wall St from 13 analysts implies an average 12‑month price target around A$27.9, suggesting high‑single‑digit to low‑double‑digit upside from current levels, with target ranges stretching from about A$22–37. ^[35]
A recent piece on Seeking Alpha (20 hours old at time of writing) rates Woodside “Hold”, arguing that decline in legacy Australian operations is being offset by international expansion, but that energy‑transition headwinds and capex risk limit upside for now. ^[36]
An earlier Seeking Alpha article from two months ago called Woodside an “undervalued LNG powerhouse”, rating it a Buy with a 12‑month US ADR target range of US$20.55–26.05 and a longer‑term target near US$28.97, assuming successful delivery of its LNG pipeline and stable commodity prices. ^[37]
Australian retail‑investor outlet The Motley Fool has published multiple pieces in November suggesting “moderate upside” based on broker price targets, but stressing volatility in LNG prices and the capital‑intensive nature of Woodside’s growth projects. ^[38]
Finder’s list of the “best ASX shares to buy in December 2025” includes Woodside among ten stocks selected via an algorithm weighing price performance, earnings and volatility, reflecting its status as a large‑cap, dividend‑paying resource stock with relatively stable trading patterns. ^[39]

Technical perspective

Short‑term chart models are mixed. StockInvest notes that Woodside’s share price rose 0.92% to A$25.16 on 1 December on higher volume, but remains down nearly 5% over the last 10 trading days, reflecting recent pressure on energy stocks. The service flags the volume‑backed bounce as a minor positive but sees the near‑term trend as still fragile. ^[40]

Governance, portfolio reshaping and the Santos non‑merger

Woodside’s aborted merger with Santos remains part of the strategic backdrop. The two companies called off talks in early 2024 after failing to agree on valuation, shelving what could have been an A$80 billion oil and gas giant. ^[41]

Since then:

CEO Meg O’Neill has publicly ruled out revisiting a Santos merger, even as Santos entertains other suitors, signalling Woodside’s preference for project‑level partnerships and acquisitions over mega‑M&A. ^[42]
Woodside has sold down or divested non‑core assets, including its Greater Angostura assets in Trinidad and Tobago, while taking over operatorship of Bass Strait gas assets and trimming its London listing (the UK FCA has removed its ordinary shares from the London Stock Exchange’s Official List). ^[43]

The net effect is a portfolio that is more focused on LNG and high‑margin oil projects across Australia, the U.S. Gulf Coast, West Africa and Mexico, but with fewer “legacy” basins and listings to maintain.

The investment story from here: three big questions

As of 2 December 2025, the Woodside share price reflects a market that is cautiously optimistic but far from euphoric. The next leg of the story will likely hinge on three big themes:

Project delivery vs. labour and execution risk
Scarborough, Pluto 2, Beaumont, Trion and Louisiana LNG collectively underpin Woodside’s forecast 50% uplift in sales volumes and 55%+ increase in operating cash flow by the early 2030s. Persistent industrial action at Pluto 2, cost creep in the U.S., or slippage in first‑gas/oil dates could translate directly into lower cash‑flow and dividend trajectories. ^[44]
Commodity prices and LNG market dynamics
The Q3 realised price of US$60/boe is healthy, but Woodside is highly exposed to global LNG prices, which are shaped by European demand, Asian growth, U.S. export policy and geopolitics. Guidance for flat‑to‑slightly declining earnings over the next few years from some models essentially bakes in softer pricing. ^[45]
Climate policy, ESG pressure and capital access
From university de‑branding campaigns to super‑fund “greenwashing” accusations, Woodside is clearly in the sights of climate activists and some institutional shareholders. Future policy changes – whether domestic (e.g. Australian gas reservation rules) or global (carbon pricing, methane rules) – could materially affect project economics, especially for long‑dated assets like Greater Sunrise and Louisiana LNG. ^[46]

Bottom line

On 2 December 2025, Woodside Energy remains a high‑yield, large‑cap LNG player trading on a modest earnings multiple, with a pipeline of projects that could materially lift production and cash flow by the early 2030s – provided they are delivered on time, on budget and into a still‑hungry global gas market.

Analysts are broadly in “hold to mild buy” territory, with consensus targets suggesting limited but positive upside and the dividend doing much of the heavy lifting for total returns. ^[47]

Whether that makes Woodside Energy stock a buy, hold or avoid depends on each investor’s view of LNG demand, climate policy and their appetite for megaproject risk. As always, this article is general information, not personal financial advice – anyone considering WDS should do their own research or seek professional guidance before making investment decisions.