Wesfarmers (ASX:WES) Stock on 2 December 2025: Dividend Windfall, OpenAI Deal and 2026 Share Price Outlook

Wesfarmers Limited (ASX:WES) heads into the first week of December 2025 as one of the most closely watched blue‑chip stocks on the ASX. A large capital management payout lands this week, fresh broker research has landed, and the conglomerate has just announced a partnership with OpenAI that underlines how seriously it is taking AI‑driven retail and data. TS2 Tech+1

Below is a structured look at where Wesfarmers stands as at 2 December 2025, drawing together the latest news, forecasts and analysis.

Wesfarmers (ASX:WES) share price snapshot on 2 December 2025

Multiple data providers show Wesfarmers trading around A$81.99 at the start of trade on 2 December 2025, following a close of A$81.99 on Monday, 1 December. ^[1]

Key current metrics:

Last close: A$81.99 (1 December 2025) ^[2]
Market capitalisation: roughly A$93–95 billion, depending on source and timing. TS2 Tech+2StockInvest+2
Year‑to‑date (2025) share price gain: around 15–17%, beating the broader ASX indices. ^[3]
52‑week trading range: approximately A$67.70 to A$95.18. ^[4]

Intelligent Investor’s performance tables show Wesfarmers starting 2025 around A$71.16 and sitting near A$81.99 now, implying a mid‑teens percentage share price gain this calendar year, after an already strong 2024. ^[5]

A separate long‑term analysis by Yahoo Finance notes that over the past three years Wesfarmers has grown earnings per share by about 7.5% per annum, while the share price has climbed roughly 19% per annum, suggesting valuation expansion has been a significant driver of returns. ^[6]

FY25 results: steady growth led by Bunnings and Kmart

For the year to 30 June 2025, Wesfarmers delivered what could be described as a “solid, not spectacular” result, but one that reinforced its reputation for resilient earnings and disciplined capital management. TS2 Tech+1

From company results materials and subsequent analyst summaries:

Group revenue: A$45.7 billion, up about 3.4% year‑on‑year. TS2 Tech+1
Statutory NPAT: roughly A$2.93 billion, up around 14%, helped by a gain on asset disposals. ^[7]
Underlying NPAT (excluding significant items): about A$2.65–2.7 billion, up 3.8%. ^[8]
Operating cash flow: around A$4.6 billion, essentially flat year‑on‑year (down ~0.6%). ^[9]
Ordinary FY25 dividend:A$2.06 per share (95c interim, A$1.11 final), up 4% on FY24. ^[10]

Bunnings: still the profit engine

Bunnings remains the powerhouse of the group:

Revenue: ~A$19.6 billion, up 3.3%
Earnings (EBT, ex‑property): ~A$2.34 billion, up 4%
Return on capital: more than 70% TS2 Tech+1

Store‑on‑store sales grew in the low‑single digits, with management highlighting expansion in digital and marketplace sales (mid‑single‑digit percentage of division sales), and ongoing investment in AI‑enabled rostering, supply chain tools and a retail media business. TS2 Tech+1

An in‑depth feature in The Australian recently noted that Bunnings is estimated to contribute over 60% of group earnings, and that analysts such as Bank of America’s David Errington see consensus forecasts for roughly 4% annual earnings growth at Bunnings as too low to justify a A$100 share price target. ^[11]

Kmart Group: value retailing in a cautious consumer environment

Kmart Group (Kmart and Target) continued to lean into value and private‑label product:

Revenue: ~A$11.4 billion, up 2.9%
Earnings (EBT): ~A$1.05 billion, up just over 9%
Return on capital: in the high‑60% range. TS2 Tech

Comparable sales growth was around 3%, with stronger momentum in the second half as Kmart pushed its Anko brand and expanded into markets such as the Philippines via partnerships and store openings. TS2 Tech

Chemicals, Energy, Fertilisers and Health: mixed but strategic

The WesCEF division grew revenue by about 7–8%, helped by fertilisers and spodumene volumes, but EBIT fell roughly 9% due to softer commodity prices and early‑stage losses in lithium projects. TS2 Tech+1

The Health division – including Australian Pharmaceutical Industries and the Priceline network – increased revenue by about 5.5% and is reported to have grown earnings by around 28%, benefiting from demand in beauty and wellness despite cost pressures in wholesale pharmacy. TS2 Tech

Management and independent analysts broadly agree that Wesfarmers’ earnings base is still dominated by Bunnings and Kmart, with health and lithium providing longer‑term optionality rather than near‑term profit drivers. TS2 Tech+1

Capital management: A$1.50 per share lands on 4 December 2025

The headline near‑term catalyst for Wesfarmers shareholders is a A$1.50 per share capital management distribution scheduled to be paid on Thursday 4 December 2025. ^[12]

From Wesfarmers’ capital management documentation:

Total distribution: A$1.50 per share, comprising:
- A$1.10 per share return of capital (Capital Component)
- A$0.40 per share fully franked special dividend (Dividend Component) ^[13]
Record date: 4:00pm (Perth time) on 6 November 2025.
Ex‑date: 5 November 2025.
Payment date for both components: 4 December 2025. ^[14]
Total cash outlay: approximately A$1.7 billion. ^[15]

Including ordinary dividends and this capital management initiative, investors are set to receive around A$3.56 per share of cash distributions tied to FY25, implying a trailing cash yield in the 4.3–4.4% range at current prices. TS2 Tech+1

The company stresses that the distribution is funded by prior asset sales (including the remaining stake in Coles and the Coregas industrial gases business) and is designed to keep the balance sheet strong while returning surplus capital. ^[16]

Separately, Wesfarmers has set an allocation price of A$81.0055 for shares issued under its Dividend Investment Plan (DRP) associated with the capital management initiative, with about 12.08% of shareholders opting to reinvest via the DRP. ^[17]

Fresh news on 2 December 2025: OpenAI partnership and broker moves

OpenAI partnership: rolling out ChatGPT Enterprise

On 2 December 2025, Wesfarmers confirmed it has entered a partnership with OpenAI to roll out ChatGPT Enterprise across the group, accompanied by customised internal training. ^[18]

Managing director Rob Scott said the collaboration aims to accelerate the group’s use of AI “to empower teams, strengthen businesses and enhance shareholder value,” building on existing deployments of AI in demand forecasting, product design, customer service, marketing effectiveness and conversational commerce across banners such as Bunnings, Kmart, Target and Officeworks. ^[19]

For investors, the move signals that Wesfarmers intends to remain at the front of the pack in data‑driven retail, logistics and customer analytics – themes that are increasingly central to the valuation of large retailers globally.

Morgans trims its Wesfarmers target price

Also on 2 December 2025, a new article on ASX 200 consumer discretionary stocks highlighted broker Morgans’ latest view on Wesfarmers. According to reporting, Morgans has: ^[20]

Maintained a “trim” rating on WES (essentially a cautious or lightening stance).
Cut its 12‑month price target from A$83.20 to A$79.30.

That target sits a shade below the current share price near A$82, reinforcing a narrative that, at least for some brokers, Wesfarmers looks fairly valued – or slightly stretched – on traditional valuation metrics given a still‑uncertain consumer backdrop.

The latest trading and macro commentary

At Wesfarmers’ AGM trading update in late October, Rob Scott flagged a mixed picture: ^[21]

Bunnings: year‑to‑date sales growth ahead of the second half of FY25, with solid consumer demand and positive commercial sales despite weak residential construction.
Kmart Group: early FY26 sales growth “broadly in line” with the June half.
Officeworks: interim earnings expected to be A$15–25 million lower due to margin pressure and IT system rollout costs.
Chemicals and energy: higher contracted gas prices expected to reduce profits.
Industrial & Safety: trading conditions remain challenging, with subdued demand from mining and resources customers.

Scott also reiterated that domestic cost pressures – particularly labour, energy, logistics and regulatory costs – continue to weigh on businesses and on consumer confidence. Wesfarmers’ chair Michael Chaney went further, warning that a proposed 5% cash‑flow tax on large companies would risk making Australia “one of the most onerous tax regimes in the world” and could drive investment offshore. ^[22]

What analysts and forecasters are saying about Wesfarmers now

Consensus valuation and price targets

MarketScreener’s collation of analyst forecasts shows: ^[23]

Mean analyst recommendation: Underperform
Number of analysts in the sample: 13
Average 12‑month target price:A$80.82
Last close used in the model: A$81.99
Implied downside from that last close: around 1–2%

In other words, on average, covering analysts see Wesfarmers as close to fair value or modestly over‑valued at current prices.

TipRanks’ coverage paints a more mixed picture: ^[24]

The most recent single‑stock analyst rating recorded there is “Hold” with a A$92.60 price target, implying double‑digit upside from the low‑A$80s.
For the capital management and DRP update, TipRanks also cites a YTD share price performance of around 16–20% and a market cap in the A$90–95 billion range, depending on date and data set.

Meanwhile, Rask Media notes that the Wesfarmers share price is up about 15.5% since the start of 2025 and explicitly poses the question of whether the stock still represents good value after this run‑up. ^[25]

Technical outlook: StockInvest turns cautious

On the technical side, StockInvest.us has just downgraded Wesfarmers to a “Sell candidate” as of 1 December 2025. ^[26]

Key points from its model:

Last close used: A$81.99, up for the fourth day in a row.
The stock sits in the middle of a “wide and falling” short‑term trend.
The model projects that, given current trend conditions, the price could fall about 13–14% over the next three months, with a 90% confidence interval placing the share price between A$67.95 and A$76.79.
Short‑term support and resistance are identified around A$81.13 and A$84.00 respectively.

Despite that bearish near‑term forecast, the service notes that Wesfarmers typically trades with relatively low day‑to‑day volatility and good liquidity, which tends to keep trading risk moderate compared with more speculative names. ^[27]

Dividend profile and income appeal

From StockInvest’s dividend history and company disclosures: ^[28]

Interim ordinary dividend paid 1 April 2025: A$0.95 per share.
Final ordinary dividend paid 7 October 2025: A$1.11 per share.
Special dividend as part of the capital management initiative (due 4 December 2025): A$0.40 per share, fully franked.
Return of capital: A$1.10 per share (non‑franked).

Across FY25, this adds up to approximately A$3.56 per share in cash distributions, a meaningful figure for income‑oriented investors and one reason Wesfarmers regularly appears in screens for ASX dividend stocks. TS2 Tech+1

Strategic themes: AI, health, lithium and diversification

Beyond the raw numbers, several themes now dominate the Wesfarmers investment story:

AI and data‑driven retail
- The newly announced OpenAI partnership formalises Wesfarmers’ roll‑out of ChatGPT Enterprise and related AI tools across the group, explicitly targeting better demand forecasting, product design, customer service, marketing and conversational commerce. ^[29]
- Bunnings and Kmart were already investing in AI‑enabled rostering and supply chain optimisation; this deal is likely to deepen those initiatives. TS2 Tech+1
Defensive retail brands with scale
- Bunnings, Kmart, Target and Officeworks anchor Wesfarmers in everyday household and business categories: home improvement, DIY, apparel, general merchandise and office supplies. ^[30]
- Their scale and value positioning have historically allowed Wesfarmers to gain or maintain market share during periods of consumer stress.
Health expansion
- Wesfarmers’ Health division gives it exposure to structural growth in pharmacy, beauty and wellness, supported by an ageing population and higher health awareness. TS2 Tech+1
Lithium and resources‑adjacent exposure
- Through WesCEF and its integrated lithium joint venture, Wesfarmers has a lever into global energy transition trends, though current earnings contributions are modest and more volatile than retail. ^[31]
Capital discipline and shareholder returns
- The board’s willingness to return capital from asset sales while still investing in new growth avenues is central to the Wesfarmers “quality compounder” narrative. ^[32]

Key risks and pressure points

Despite its strengths, recent coverage and company commentary highlight a number of important risks:

Cost‑of‑living and consumer demand: management continues to emphasise that households are cautious, which can weigh on discretionary categories even as value retailers like Kmart pick up share. ^[33]
Rising domestic costs: higher wages, energy and logistics costs, plus regulatory overheads, are pressuring margins in multiple divisions. ^[34]
Officeworks and industrial divisions: near‑term earnings headwinds, including an IT system rollout at Officeworks and weaker demand in Industrial & Safety, show that not all parts of the portfolio are firing at once. ^[35]
Tax and regulatory uncertainty: proposed changes such as a cash‑flow‑based tax on large corporates could meaningfully alter after‑tax returns; Wesfarmers’ chair has been vocal on this point. ^[36]
Valuation stretch: with the share price near A$82 and a 52‑week high of around A$95, several brokers are cautious, citing a premium multiple relative to earnings growth expectations – particularly given Bunnings may need faster growth than current consensus to justify the richest bull‑case valuations. ^[37]
Short‑term technical downtrend: the StockInvest model’s expectation of a potential mid‑teens price pullback over three months reflects the current technical backdrop, though such models are by nature probabilistic rather than certain. ^[38]

Upcoming catalysts

A few dates and events are likely to be closely watched:

4 December 2025: payment of the A$1.50 per share capital management distribution (A$1.10 capital return + A$0.40 special dividend) and issuance of DRP shares at A$81.0055 for participating shareholders. ^[39]
Mid‑February 2026: next scheduled earnings release (Q2 FY26 / half‑year), currently pencilled in by some data providers for around 18 February 2026. ^[40]
Ongoing: market reaction to the OpenAI partnership, including any colour on AI‑driven efficiency gains or customer experience improvements at upcoming investor briefings. ^[41]

Is Wesfarmers stock a buy, hold or sell in December 2025?

As at 2 December 2025, the overall picture looks like this:

Fundamentals: steady underlying profit growth, very strong returns on capital in Bunnings and Kmart, and a growing health business.
Income: an attractive stream of fully franked ordinary dividends plus a sizeable capital management payout, delivering a mid‑single‑digit cash yield at current prices.
Valuation: consensus numbers suggest limited upside over 12 months from here, with some brokers outright cautious, while a minority of analysts see more substantial upside based on long‑term growth and quality. ^[42]
Technical tone: short‑term technical models have recently turned more negative, flagging the possibility of a consolidation or pullback after a strong three‑year run. ^[43]

For long‑term, income‑focused investors, Wesfarmers is still widely viewed as a high‑quality, diversified conglomerate with a strong dividend and capital management track record. For valuation‑sensitive or more tactical investors, recent broker downgrades and technical signals argue for caution until either earnings growth accelerates or the share price offers a more comfortable margin of safety.