Anglo American plc shares are trading just below 2,900p on 2 December 2025 as investors weigh the end of BHP’s latest £40 billion takeover attempt, a decisive 9 December vote on the Teck merger, and a copper price sitting near record highs. [1]
1. Price action on 2 December 2025
On the London Stock Exchange, Anglo American (ticker AAL.L) closed at 2,878p on Tuesday, 2 December 2025. The stock traded between 2,859p and 2,892p intraday, finishing down 14p, or ‑0.48%, on relatively light volume of about 164,000 shares. [2]
Over the past 12 months, AAL has gained roughly 14–15%, outpacing many diversified miners as the market has pivoted to treat the company less as a broad commodity “basket” and more as a leveraged copper and iron‑ore play. [3]
The company remains a multi‑listing name, trading not only in London but also on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (AGL.JO), in Switzerland, Mexico and Brazil, and via U.S. OTC ADRs such as NGLOY. [4]
2. Takeover premium fades as BHP walks away
The most important near‑term development for Anglo American shareholders has been the latest — and now aborted — approach from BHP Group.
- BHP reportedly offered around £40 billion for Anglo American in a renewed takeover proposal, seeking to secure its South American copper assets and derail Anglo’s planned merger with Teck Resources. [5]
- After resistance from Anglo’s board and concerns around deal complexity and valuation, BHP withdrew the bid in late November, triggering a six‑month “no‑return” period under U.K. takeover rules. [6]
- On 24 November 2025, Anglo American shares sold off as the takeover premium evaporated, with market commentary describing a “significant downturn” as investors repriced the stock on standalone fundamentals rather than M&A speculation. [7]
In essence, the BHP chapter has closed for now. The equity market is shifting from “who buys Anglo?” back to “what is Anglo worth as a copper‑focused, Teck‑merged miner?”
3. Teck merger: 2 December is a key cut‑off date
The other big story is the pending merger of equals between Anglo American and Canada’s Teck Resources, announced on 9 September 2025. The deal will create “Anglo Teck”, a global critical‑minerals group headquartered in Canada and listed in both London and Toronto. [8]
3.1 What is being voted on?
Anglo published its shareholder circular on 10 November, calling a general meeting for 9 December 2025 in London. The circular seeks shareholder approval for the issuance of new shares needed to complete the merger. [9]
Crucially for today’s date:
- 2 December 2025 is the last day to trade Anglo shares on the South African register to participate in the general meeting, according to the timetable in the circular. [10]
Teck shareholders will hold their own special meeting on the same day, also on 9 December. [11]
3.2 Deal terms and special dividend
Under the plan of arrangement:
- Teck shareholders will receive 1.3301 Anglo shares (or exchangeable shares for eligible Canadians) per Teck share, designed to reflect a merger of equals at market prices. [12]
- Immediately after completion, Anglo and Teck investors are expected to own roughly 62.4% and 37.6% of Anglo Teck, respectively. [13]
- The Anglo board intends to pay a US$4.5 billion pre‑merger special dividend, estimated at about US$4.19 per current Anglo share, subject to final adjustments. [14]
The special dividend improves “opening balance sheet” alignment between the two shareholder groups, but it is also one reason credit agencies are watching leverage carefully.
3.3 Regulatory overhang
The merger faces a multi‑jurisdictional regulatory gauntlet:
- Canada has confirmed that the proposed ~US$50–60 billion combination will undergo a national security review under the Investment Canada Act, given its importance for copper and other critical minerals like germanium. [15]
- Additional approvals are required in the U.S., China, the EU and other jurisdictions, reflecting the combined group’s scale in copper and steelmaking coal. [16]
Proxy advisory firm ISS has recommended that Teck shareholders vote in favour of the deal, framing the transaction as a way to crystallise value from Teck’s copper growth pipeline in a larger, more diversified vehicle. [17]
4. Portfolio makeover: coal, platinum, diamonds and nickel
Parallel to the Teck merger, Anglo American is reshaping itself from a diversified miner into a more focused producer of copper, premium iron ore and crop nutrients. [18]
Key strands of that transformation:
4.1 Steelmaking coal exits: Peabody deal collapses, arbitration begins
Anglo has designated its Australian steelmaking coal assets as non‑core. But the path to exit has been complicated:
- In 2024, Anglo agreed to sell a portfolio of Queensland coking coal mines to Peabody Energy for roughly US$3.8 billion, only for a serious underground fire at the Moranbah North mine in early 2025 to derail the transaction. [19]
- On 19 August 2025, Peabody terminated the purchase agreements, citing a “material adverse change” following the incident. Anglo disputes that interpretation, noting that damage was limited and recovery is under way. [20]
- In October, Anglo initiated arbitration proceedings against Peabody, while returning part of the deposit; Peabody is demanding the balance back. The dispute has become a test case in how “MAC” clauses are applied in mining deals. [21]
The failed sale delayed Anglo’s timeline for exiting coal and removed a planned source of cash that would have supported balance‑sheet repair ahead of the Teck merger.
4.2 Jellinbah stake sale: cash raised, exposure reduced
Earlier in 2025, Anglo completed the sale of its 33.3% minority stake in Jellinbah Group, a joint venture that owns majority interests in the Jellinbah East and Lake Vermont steelmaking coal mines in Australia, to Zashvin Pty Ltd for A$1.6 billion. [22]
Anglo did not operate or market Jellinbah’s production, so the disposal tidied up the portfolio while raising cash for the core business.
4.3 Platinum demerger: Valterra Platinum
In the platinum‑group metals (PGM) segment:
- Anglo has demerged Anglo American Platinum (Amplats), rebranded as Valterra Platinum, with primary listing in Johannesburg and a London standard listing. TS2 Tech+1
- Anglo has retained about 19.9% of Valterra, with a stated intention to reduce its holding over time. [23]
This move mirrors the earlier Thungela coal spin‑off and is part of the broader shift away from PGMs towards copper and iron ore.
4.4 Diamonds and De Beers
Anglo has also confirmed its intention to exit its controlling stake in De Beers, the diamond group jointly owned with Botswana’s government. Reports suggest Botswana is interested in increasing its stake, though the structure and timetable of any deal remain open. TS2 Tech
A full or partial sale would simplify Anglo’s portfolio but could be politically sensitive given the strategic importance of diamonds for Botswana.
4.5 Nickel sale and EU scrutiny
Nickel, too, is on the chopping block:
- In February 2025, Anglo agreed to sell its Brazilian nickel business — including two ferronickel operations and greenfield projects — to a subsidiary of Hong Kong‑listed MMG Ltd for up to US$500 million (US$350 million upfront plus potential earn‑outs). [24]
- On 25 November 2025, the European Commission paused its antitrust review of the deal after MMG failed to provide requested information on time, effectively stopping the regulatory clock until the data is supplied. Regulators have warned the transaction could enable MMG to divert ferronickel away from Europe, potentially hurting European steelmakers. [25]
The pause underscores how Anglo’s portfolio reshaping is tied into wider geopolitical concerns around critical‑minerals supply chains and Chinese influence.
5. Copper super‑cycle narrative strengthens the bull case
Anglo’s strategic pivot towards copper is being reinforced by an exceptionally tight copper market.
- On 29 November 2025, benchmark three‑month copper on the London Metal Exchange surged to a new all‑time high around US$11,210.50 per tonne, beating the previous record set in October. The rally has been fuelled by a weaker dollar, falling Chilean output and planned production cuts at Chinese smelters. [26]
- UBS has raised its copper price forecasts, now projecting US$11,500/t in March 2026, US$12,000 and US$12,500 for mid‑2026, and a new December 2026 target of US$13,000. The bank cites ongoing mine disruptions and accelerating demand from electrification and grid upgrades. [27]
- Earlier in 2025, JP Morgan forecast average copper prices of US$11,000/t in 2026, highlighting a growing refined copper deficit and the potential for U.S. tariffs on refined copper imports to tighten non‑U.S. markets further. [28]
Anglo Teck is expected to become one of the world’s top five copper producers, with combined assets in Chile and Peru (including Quebrada Blanca and Collahuasi) plus Anglo’s Quellaveco project. Copper is likely to account for more than 70% of the merged group’s EBITDA in many scenarios, concentrating exposure to the metal’s long‑term supply squeeze. [29]
For shareholders, this means Anglo is evolving into a high‑beta copper and iron‑ore vehicle, strongly geared to any continuation of the copper bull market — but also vulnerable if the super‑cycle stalls.
6. Credit agencies: one “Positive”, one “Negative”
The Teck merger and restructuring plan have prompted divergent reactions from credit rating agencies:
- S&P Global Ratings has revised Anglo American’s outlook to Positive from Stable, while affirming its BBB / A‑2 ratings. S&P argues that the merger plus portfolio simplification could strengthen the business profile and reduce the execution pressure tied to multiple disposals, assuming a conservative financial policy is maintained. [30]
- Fitch Ratings, by contrast, has affirmed Anglo at BBB+ but cut the outlook to Negative, explicitly highlighting leverage risk around the planned US$4.5 billion special dividend and the capital intensity of Anglo’s growth projects. Fitch’s commentary stresses that management’s commitment to deleveraging will be crucial after the merger. [31]
A recent summary of the situation noted that credit markets “see both opportunity and balance‑sheet strain in the Teck deal,” neatly capturing the split between S&P’s optimism and Fitch’s caution. TS2 Tech+1
7. Analyst ratings, price targets and fundamental forecasts
7.1 Street recommendations
Across mainstream broker surveys, Anglo American’s London‑listed stock currently sits in “Hold” territory:
- One widely cited dataset of around 26 analysts covering AAL.L shows a consensus rating of Hold, with roughly balanced numbers of Buy and Hold recommendations and virtually no Sell calls. TS2 Tech
- A smaller sample tracked by MarketBeat records three Hold and two Buy ratings for AAL, again yielding a Hold consensus. [32]
- For the U.S. ADR NGLOY, consensus skews slightly more positive, with a “Moderate Buy” stance on some platforms. TS2 Tech+1
In short, the sell‑side recognises the strategic upside from copper and the Teck merger, but also the execution and balance‑sheet risks.
7.2 Price targets: London vs ADRs
Price‑target data underline how finely balanced the valuation debate has become:
- Aggregators such as TradingView and Investing.com put the average 12‑month target for AAL.L around 2,900p, very close to the current share price, with a wide spread between bullish and bearish scenarios. TS2 Tech+1
- Some samples (for example MarketBeat’s smaller analyst set) show a lower average target closer to 2,500–2,600p, implying modest downside from today’s levels, though this is based on fewer contributors. [33]
- For the ADR NGLOY, StockScan reports an average 12‑month target of about US$25.4, roughly 30–35% above a recent price near US$19, with its in‑house model projecting much higher prices by 2030 and beyond. [34]
The London‑listed stock, in other words, is broadly seen as fairly valued on a 12‑month view, while some longer‑term or algorithmic models see significantly more upside — assuming the copper story plays out.
7.3 Earnings and revenue outlook
Consensus bottom‑up forecasts point to near‑term earnings volatility followed by recovery:
- Data compiled by Simply Wall St suggest revenue dipping to roughly US$19 billion in 2025, then climbing back into the low‑US$20 billion range by 2027 as restructuring completes and higher copper prices feed through. [35]
- Net income is expected to swing from a small loss in 2025 to more than US$2 billion by 2027, with free cash flow recovering as discretionary capital spending normalises. [36]
- On some models, that translates into earnings per share growth of 60%+ per year over the medium term, albeit from a depressed base. [37]
Alternative and AI‑driven scoring systems are more cautious. For example, Danelfin’s AI model currently grades AAL as an underperformer over the next three months, underlining the potential for volatility even if the multi‑year picture looks brighter. TS2 Tech
8. Key risks and near‑term catalysts
For investors tracking Anglo American around 2 December 2025, several immediate catalysts and risk factors stand out:
- 9 December shareholder votes
The outcome of the Anglo and Teck shareholder meetings will determine whether the merger proceeds on its current timetable. A surprise rejection or delay would require the market to re‑price both companies on a standalone basis. [38] - Canadian national security review and other regulatory decisions
Canada’s review under the Investment Canada Act, together with antitrust and foreign‑investment approvals in other jurisdictions, could impose conditions on asset disposals, capital spending and domestic commitments, potentially affecting Anglo Teck’s free‑cash‑flow profile. [39] - EU ruling on the MMG nickel deal
The Commission’s paused investigation into the Brazilian nickel sale will eventually resume; approval, remedies or a blocked deal would all send different signals about Anglo’s ability to execute portfolio simplification. [40] - Resolution of the Peabody arbitration
The arbitration over the aborted US$3.8 billion coal transaction could have meaningful financial implications and will influence how the market views Anglo’s ability to monetise non‑core coal assets. [41] - Copper price path
Copper is currently near record levels. Any sharp correction — whether due to weaker global growth, faster‑than‑expected new supply, or policy shocks — would hit earnings and could undermine the investment case that underpins the Teck merger. Conversely, continued tightness and new highs would reinforce the bull thesis. [42] - Balance‑sheet discipline post‑merger
With a large special dividend, ongoing capex and integration costs, Anglo Teck’s leverage trajectory will be critical. A clear, delivered deleveraging plan would go a long way toward satisfying Fitch and supporting equity valuations; slippage could trigger downgrades and higher funding costs. [43]
9. Investment takeaway: from diversified miner to copper‑centric transition play
On 2 December 2025, Anglo American’s investment story looks very different from the diversified conglomerate it was even a few years ago:
- The BHP bid is gone for now, removing a takeover premium but also removing a major source of uncertainty. [44]
- The Teck merger, if approved and cleared, will create a top‑tier copper and iron‑ore group with significant leverage to energy transition and grid investment themes. [45]
- A wide‑ranging portfolio clean‑up — coal, PGMs, diamonds, nickel — is simplifying the business but generating regulatory friction and legal disputes along the way. [46]
- Analyst targets cluster around the current price, signalling that much of the expected copper upside and deal benefit may already be reflected, even as alternative models and ADR‑focused forecasts flag larger potential gains. TS2 Tech+2Investing.com+2
For now, AAL looks like a high‑beta, copper‑driven transition play: attractive for investors who are comfortable with commodity risk, regulatory complexity and leverage — and who believe in a sustained tight copper market — but less suitable for those seeking low‑volatility exposure.
References
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