Greencore Group Plc (LON:GNC) Stock on 2 December 2025: Share Price, Bakkavor Deal and 2026 Outlook

This article is for information only and does not constitute investment advice.

Greencore share price today: GNC edges higher in an active bid situation

Greencore Group Plc (LON:GNC), the FTSE 250 convenience food manufacturer best known for its sandwiches and ready meals, closed on 2 December 2025 at 243.50p (sell 242.50p / buy 243.50p), up 2.0p or +0.83% on the day. ^[1]

At that level:

The stock sits within a 52‑week range of 162.60p to 281.00p.
Greencore’s market capitalisation is about £1.08bn.
Based on FY25 numbers, Hargreaves Lansdown’s fundamental data imply a low‑teens price/earnings multiple (around 12x) and a historic dividend yield of just over 1%. ^[2]

Over longer horizons, Greencore has quietly staged a big comeback: HL data show the share price up around 22% over one year and almost 280% over three years, reflecting a recovery from the pandemic-era trough. ^[3]

The stock is also officially marked as being in a “bid situation” on HL, reflecting the ongoing, regulator‑scrutinised £1.2bn acquisition of Bakkavor Group Plc and associated UK Takeover Panel disclosures. ^[4]

Technical picture: dip below the 200‑day moving average

While the closing price looks benign, intraday trading on 2 December had a slightly nervier tone.

A fresh MarketBeat technical alert flagged that Greencore’s shares traded below their 200‑day moving average of 237.29p, touching an intraday low of 237p before recovering to 241.50p at the time of that report (volume 2.64m shares). ^[5]

According to the same data:

50‑day moving average: 234.36p
200‑day moving average: 237.29p
Beta: 1.19, implying somewhat higher volatility than the broader market
Balance‑sheet metrics include a current ratio of 0.70, quick ratio of 0.62, and debt‑to‑equity around 56%, pointing to a working‑capital‑intensive but not obviously overstretched balance sheet. ^[6]

A brief move under the 200‑day line is often read as a short‑term negative technical signal, but in this case it coincides with rising profits, low leverage and a large pending acquisition, so technicians and fundamental investors may read the same squiggle very differently.

Adding a stronger fundamental twist, the same MarketBeat note highlights that Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) recently reiterated an “Outperform” rating with a 300p price target. ^[7]

Two years of profit recovery: inside Greencore’s FY25 numbers

Greencore released its FY25 results (year ended 26 September 2025) on 18 November, delivering a second consecutive year of strong recovery and margin expansion. ^[8]

Key FY25 figures (vs FY24) were: ^[9]

Revenue: £1,947.0m (FY24: £1,807.1m), +7.7%
Adjusted EBITDA: £181.2m (153.7m), +17.9%
Adjusted operating profit: £125.7m (97.5m), +28.9%
Adjusted operating margin:6.5% (5.4%), up 110bps
Profit before tax: £79.5m (61.5m), +29.3%
Adjusted EPS: 18.6p (12.7p), +46.5%
Proposed total dividend: 2.6p per share (2.0p), +30%

Cash and balance sheet metrics also moved sharply in the right direction: free cash flow jumped from £70.1m to £120.5m and free‑cash‑flow conversion improved to 66.5%. Net debt (excluding leases) fell to £70.1m, bringing net debt/EBITDA down to 0.4x from 1.0x the year before. ^[10]

In other words, Greencore is:

Growing revenue at high single‑digit rates
Expanding margins
Generating strong cash flow
Carrying modest leverage going into a large acquisition

Management commentary from the FY25 results presentation added more colour:

UK grocery volume growth in Greencore’s categories was only about 0.7%, but the company delivered 2.5% manufactured volume growth, outperforming by roughly 180 basis points.
The UK sandwich market grew ~4%, with Greencore broadly matching that growth.
Structural tailwinds cited include more convenience store openings, strong demand for premium own‑label sandwiches and a gradual shift from eating out to “eating in better.” ^[11]

The FY25 dividend proposal of 2.6p per share follows the reintroduction of a 2.0p dividend in FY24, after several years of suspension during the pandemic and restructuring period. ^[12]

On HL’s historic numbers, that translates into a dividend yield of about 1.1–1.2% at current prices, with high dividend cover (over 7x), meaning the board has room to continue growing the payout if earnings progress. ^[13]

Bakkavor acquisition: CMA remedies and why Bristol matters

The biggest strategic swing for Greencore right now is its proposed £1.2bn acquisition of Bakkavor Group Plc, a major supplier of fresh prepared foods across the UK, Ireland and the US. The deal would create a near‑£4bn revenue convenience food group, supplying own‑label products to retailers including Tesco, Sainsbury’s, M&S, Waitrose and Asda. ^[14]

The UK Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) has been scrutinising the merger through 2025:

On 27 October 2025, the CMA warned that the deal “might harm competition” in the supply of own‑label chilled sauces, where the combined entity would be one of the largest players and only 2 Sisters Food Group and Billington Foods were seen as meaningful rivals, both weaker. ^[15]
The CMA cleared the merger in Italian chilled ready meals and salads, concluding there would still be sufficient competition in those segments. ^[16]

To address the sauces issue, Greencore offered a structural remedy:

Selling its only UK chilled soup and sauce plant in Bristol.

On 7 November 2025, the CMA said it had “reasonable grounds” to accept those undertakings and began a public consultation on the remedy package. ^[17]

According to the CMA timetable and company statements:

The consultation on the proposed undertakings runs to 3 December 2025. ^[18]
A final decision on whether to formally accept the remedies – and thereby clear the merger – is expected in early 2026. ^[19]

In parallel, Greencore has already agreed to sell the Bristol soups and sauces facility (to The Compleat Food Group, according to trade press), which both unlocks the remedy and streamlines its footprint. ^[20]

Investors now face a fairly binary near‑term catalyst:

If the CMA approves the undertakings, Greencore gains a much larger prepared‑foods platform but takes on Bakkavor integration risk.
If the CMA pushes for tougher remedies or escalates to a deeper phase‑2 review, the timeline and economics of the deal could change, bringing volatility to GNC shares.

Latest disclosures: Forms 8.3/8.5 signal busy trading around the bid

As with any live UK takeover situation, the market is being peppered with disclosure forms under the Takeover Code, which are worth noting even if they are mostly mechanical.

Recent disclosures include:

Form 8.5 (EPT/RI) filed on 2 December 2025 by Goodbody Stockbrokers, acting as an exempt principal trader. The filing shows routine market‑making trades in Greencore shares around 241–242p, with net exposure after the day’s dealing of just 1,181 shares – essentially liquidity‑provision activity rather than a directional bet. ^[21]
Form 8.3 filed on 1 December 2025 by The Vanguard Group, Inc., disclosing a 5.34% stake (23.63m shares) in Greencore, with parallel disclosure in Bakkavor given the live offer. ^[22]
Additional Form 8.3 filings by Barclays Bank PLC and Form 8.5 disclosures by Peel Hunt, reflecting ongoing trading and hedging by institutions connected to the transaction. ^[23]

Separately, HL’s director‑deals page confirms that Philippe Leslie Van De Walle, the company’s chairman, bought 40,000 shares on 19 November 2025 at £2.36, taking his holding to 185,000 shares – a purchase of roughly £94,500. ^[24]

These disclosures don’t prove anything dramatic by themselves, but they underline:

High institutional participation in the stock
Active trading around the pending Bakkavor deal
A board insider buying after the FY25 results and CMA remedy news

Who owns Greencore? A heavily institutional register

A widely‑cited Yahoo Finance analysis earlier in 2025 concluded that roughly 75% of Greencore’s shares are held by institutional investors, with the top handful of shareholders controlling a large portion of the register. ^[25]

The recent Vanguard Form 8.3 confirms just one of those: a 5.34% holding by one of the world’s largest asset managers. ^[26]

High institutional ownership often means:

The stock is closely followed by professional investors and sell‑side analysts.
Trading can become more sensitive to consensus earnings revisions and regulatory headlines, especially around big corporate actions like Bakkavor.

Retail investors, by contrast, appear to hold a relatively small slice of the company’s equity.

What analysts are saying about Greencore stock

Analyst and data‑provider views are not completely aligned, but they skew positive overall and broadly point to modest upside from today’s price – with at least one notably bullish outlier.

1. MarketBeat / RBC

MarketBeat’s forecast page shows a consensus rating of “Buy” based on a single analyst, with an average 12‑month price target of 300p. ^[27]
That target comes from Royal Bank of Canada, which reiterated an “Outperform” rating and 300p price objective in a note published in late November. At a 242–244p share price, that implies roughly 24–25% upside. ^[28]

2. MarketScreener

MarketScreener, which aggregates several brokers, reports: ^[29]

Mean rating: Outperform
Average target price:2.583 GBP (≈258p)
Target range:1.85 GBP to 3.00 GBP (185p–300p)
Number of contributing analysts: 3

That suggests mid‑single‑digit to low‑double‑digit upside from the current 243.5p level, with a fairly wide spread between the most cautious and most optimistic models.

3. Fintel

Fintel’s summary of broker targets puts the average one‑year price target at about 239p, with a range from roughly 187p to 305p. ^[30]

Because that average is now close to the live price, Fintel’s dataset implies limited expected upside in aggregate, but again with large dispersion between bulls and bears.

4. Stockopedia and TradingView

Stockopedia’s StockReport for Greencore cites a consensus target price of 246.60p, about 2–3% above a recent closing price near 240p, based on a broader group of analysts. ^[31]
TradingView similarly shows an average price target of 245.75p, with a high case of 300p and a low of 185p. ^[32]

5. Greencore’s own analyst consensus

Greencore’s website hosts an analyst‑consensus page (presented as images) collating forecasts from brokers including Davy, Deutsche Numis, Goodbody, HSBC, Jefferies, Peel Hunt and Shore Capital, last updated on 22 January 2025. ^[33]

While the exact numbers are not text‑searchable, the company notes:

The data are analyst forecasts, not company guidance.
Greencore does not endorse the figures and may not update them after that date.

Putting it together

Across the different providers:

Ratings cluster around “Buy/Outperform”.
Average targets mostly sit in the mid‑240s to mid‑250s, a little above the current price.
RBC’s 300p target is a clear bullish outlier, echoed as the high‑end target in several aggregators. ^[34]

Analyst coverage is relatively thin, and the spread between high and low targets is wide, so investors should treat any single number as a rough signpost rather than a precise map.

Valuation snapshot: growth, cash and a modest yield

Using HL’s FY25 fundamental data, the market is currently valuing Greencore at roughly: ^[35]

P/E (trailing adjusted EPS): about 12x
PEG ratio: around 0.3, reflecting strong EPS growth against a modest multiple
Dividend yield:~1.1–1.2%, with 2.6p of dividends against 18.6p of adjusted EPS

Given FY25 adjusted EPS growth of 46% and FY24 growth of 37%, the last two years have delivered very punchy earnings gains. ^[36]

Of course, sustaining that pace into 2026 will be much harder, particularly as consumer demand softens and Bakkavor integration begins.

Investment case: strengths, risks and 2026 catalysts

From a stock‑picker’s perspective, Greencore now sits at the intersection of three big themes:

UK consumer staples resilience
Structural growth in convenience food
Large‑scale M&A with regulatory overhang

Below is a high‑level, non‑advisory snapshot of the bull and bear arguments visible in today’s data.

Positive factors

Operational momentum: Two consecutive years of double‑digit profit growth, margin expansion from 4.0% in FY23 to 6.5% in FY25, and ROIC rising from 8.9% to 15.0%. ^[37]
Strong cash generation and low leverage: Free cash flow of £120.5m and net debt/EBITDA at 0.4x leave Greencore with room to absorb Bakkavor while still investing in automation and growth projects. ^[38]
Structural tailwinds: Ongoing growth in UK convenience outlets, premiumisation of own‑label ranges and a shift toward “eating in better” all support demand in Greencore’s core categories. ^[39]
Re‑established shareholder returns: Dividends have been reinstated and raised, and earlier in the recovery management complemented this with share buybacks. ^[40]
Insider and institutional alignment: High institutional ownership, a 5.34% position from Vanguard and a sizeable recent share purchase by the chairman all point to skin in the game. ^[41]

Key risks and uncertainties

CMA outcome and remedy execution: The Bristol plant sale should, in theory, address the CMA’s chilled‑sauces concerns, but the regulator must still formally accept the remedy after the consultation that runs to 3 December 2025. Any delay or tougher conditions could hit sentiment. ^[42]
Integration risk at Bakkavor: Even with regulatory clearance, bringing together two large prepared‑food networks is operationally complex. Synergies could slip, while customers and competitors may react aggressively. ^[43]
Macro and consumer squeeze: Although Greencore has been winning share, its fortunes remain tied to UK consumers’ willingness to spend on food‑to‑go and chilled convenience lines in supermarkets and forecourts. Prolonged weakness in real disposable incomes could eventually bite. ^[44]
Balance‑sheet and working‑capital demands: Company numbers show low net leverage, but external data flag modest liquidity ratios and a debt‑to‑equity ratio around 56%, underlining that this is still a capital‑intensive manufacturing and logistics business. ^[45]
Concentrated analyst coverage: With relatively few brokers publishing explicit targets, consensus metrics are more fragile than for a large‑cap blue chip.

Near‑term catalysts to watch

Investors tracking GNC over the coming months are likely to focus on:

3 December 2025: Closing date for the CMA consultation on Greencore’s proposed remedies. ^[46]
Early 2026: Expected CMA decision and Bakkavor deal completion, if remedies are accepted. ^[47]
8 January 2026:Ex‑dividend date for the FY25 final dividend of 2.6p; payment due on 5 February 2026. ^[48]
29 January 2026:Q1 FY26 trading update and AGM, where management will give the first formal read‑across to FY26 trading and, potentially, more detail on Bakkavor integration plans and synergy run‑rate. ^[49]

Bottom line

As of 2 December 2025, Greencore Group Plc sits in an intriguing position:

The core business is delivering strong earnings growth, improving margins and healthy cash generation, with low net leverage.
The Bakkavor acquisition, if cleared and well executed, could materially increase scale and extend Greencore’s reach across chilled categories and geographies.
The stock trades on a modest multiple with a small but growing dividend, while most analysts that do cover it are positive and see at least some upside to their target prices. ^[50]

Against that, investors must weigh regulatory risk, integration uncertainty and ongoing UK consumer headwinds, plus the fact that the share price has already recovered dramatically over the last three years.

For now, Greencore is very much a “fundamentals vs event risk” story: the numbers look good, the strategic logic of Bakkavor is clear, and the board is signalling confidence, but the CMA still has the final word – and in UK food retail, regulators, not just shoppers, get to vote.