Meta Platforms (META) Stock Today – December 2, 2025: AI Spending Shock, New Price Targets and 2025

Meta Platforms, Inc. (NASDAQ: META) is starting December trading in the mid‑$600s, still digesting a sharp post‑earnings sell‑off but backed by a fresh wave of bullish Wall Street forecasts and heavy institutional buying.

As of early trading on December 2, 2025, Meta stock is hovering around $640–$645 per share, almost flat versus Monday’s close of $640.87, giving the company a market capitalization of roughly $1.62 trillion. That leaves shares about 20% below their all‑time high near $796, set in mid‑August. ^[1]

The valuation has cooled: Meta now trades at around 28x trailing earnings, with a modest dividend yield near 0.3% and a 52‑week range of $479.80 to $796.25. ^[2]

Below, we break down today’s news, forecasts and analysis around Meta stock – and what it may mean for investors watching the AI build‑out into 2026.

1. Where Meta Stock Stands on December 2, 2025

Key snapshot:

Price (Dec 1 close): $640.87, down 1.09% on the day ^[3]
Intraday range today (so far): roughly $644–$645, with shares recently quoted around $641–$642 ^[4]
Market cap: about $1.62 trillion, up ~9% over the past year ^[5]
Valuation: P/E 28.3, P/E-to‑growth (PEG) about 1.36; beta ~1.3, implying above‑market volatility ^[6]
Dividend: annualized $2.10 per share (about 0.3–0.33% yield) ^[7]

Price wise, Meta has snapped back from a recent low near $605, but remains well below August’s peak above $800 after investors balked at management’s latest AI spending plans. ^[8]

2. How We Got Here: Q3 Beat, AI Capex Shock

The current debate around Meta starts with its Q3 2025 earnings:

Revenue: $51.24 billion, +26.2% year over year, beating analyst expectations by about 3–4%.
EPS: $7.25 vs. consensus of $6.74.
Ad business: ad impressions up ~14% and average price per ad up ~10%, with “Family of Apps” metrics (Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp, Messenger, Threads) all showing strong engagement. ^[9]

Fundamentals, on the surface, looked excellent – but guidance on spending changed the story:

Meta now projects 2025 capital expenditures of around $70–72 billion, up from about $39 billion in 2024, largely for AI data centers and compute. ^[10]
Management signaled capex would be “notably larger” in 2026, with some sell‑side models penciling in capex above $100 billion next year. ^[11]

A detailed MarketBeat analysis estimates that such a ramp could shrink free cash flow in 2026 to roughly $24 billion, more than 40% below the ~$42.5 billion generated over the last 12 months, even if operating cash flow climbs to around $127 billion. ^[12]

Investors reacted swiftly:

Shares dropped about 11% on October 30 alone and were down more than 16% in the days that followed, erasing over $300 billion in market value at one point. ^[13]
Commentators quickly drew parallels to Meta’s 2022 “metaverse rout,” when heavy spending on Reality Labs crushed margins and sentiment. ^[14]

At the same time, Meta’s balance sheet has flipped from net cash to net debt as the AI push accelerates:

24/7 Wall St notes that cash per share fell about 76.7% year‑over‑year in Q3 2025, with the company moving from roughly $20.7 billion in net cash in early 2025 to ~$6.6 billion in net debt by Q3. ^[15]

The result: Meta is now perceived as a high‑quality ad business making an extremely aggressive, front‑loaded AI bet – which is exactly what current forecasts and analyses are wrestling with.

3. Today’s Big Analyst Moves: 30–40% Upside Still on the Table

Evercore ISI: WhatsApp as a $40B Business, $875 Target

On December 2, Evercore ISI reaffirmed its “Outperform” rating on Meta and set a $875 price target, implying nearly 37% upside from around $640. ^[16]

Key points from Evercore’s updated model:

The analyst highlights WhatsApp as a severely underappreciated asset.
By 2030, they see WhatsApp generating about $40 billion in annual revenue and roughly $20 billion in operating income, contributing around $7.15 in EPS on its own. ^[17]
That would make WhatsApp roughly 10% of Meta’s total business, with growth driven by business messaging, “click‑to‑message” ads, and new features like WhatsApp Updates. ^[18]

Evercore frames Meta as chasing the AI leader opportunity “from a clear position of strength”: robust ad markets, strong engagement, and rising monetization across its platforms.

TipRanks / Finbold: Strong Buy, High‑$800s Cluster

Also today, Finbold aggregated TipRanks data showing that:

42 analysts currently cover Meta.
Rating:“Strong Buy” – 35 Buys, 6 Holds, 1 Sell.
Average 12‑month price target:$838.14, implying about 31% upside from recent levels.
Target range:$655.15 (low) to $1,117 (high). ^[19]

MarketBeat & StockAnalysis: Moderate/Strong Buy, Targets in Low‑$800s

MarketBeat’s own consensus (updated through late November and cited again in its December 2 institutional‑ownership pieces) is similar: ^[20]

50 analysts in the last 12 months.
Consensus rating:“Moderate Buy”.
Mix: 4 Strong Buy, 38 Buy, 8 Hold.
Average 12‑month target:$823.93 (range $605–$1,117), implying roughly 25–30% upside from around $640.

StockAnalysis, referenced in recent coverage, puts the average target in a similar low‑$800s band, with a “Strong Buy” consensus and mid‑20s percentage upside. TS2 Tech+1

Takeaway: Despite the capex shock, Wall Street still expects sizable upside – with most target clusters between $820 and $880, and a handful of high‑conviction calls near or above $900.

4. Technical Picture: “Rebound, But Trend Still Fragile”

An in‑depth technical note published overnight on Investing.com describes Meta’s chart as stabilizing but not yet repaired: ^[21]

Price has bounced from a recent low around $605 to the mid‑$600s.
Short‑term trend:
- Shares trade below the 50‑day moving average (~$683–$685), which has turned sharply lower – a bearish short‑term signal.
- The 50‑DMA zone near $672–$685 is flagged as heavy resistance; bulls likely need a decisive break above this band to reset momentum.
Long‑term trend:
- The 200‑day moving average sits near $560, comfortably below the current price, indicating the broader uptrend remains intact.
Support levels: about $605 (recent low), $560 (200‑DMA) and the psychological $500 area.

The same analysis notes that RSI (14) has recovered from oversold territory to around neutral, suggesting selling pressure has eased but conviction buying has not fully returned.

Quant‑ and trading‑oriented services add a short‑term perspective:

DailyForex recently called post‑earnings action a “buying signal”, arguing Meta is inexpensive relative to the Nasdaq‑100 on a P/E basis and suggesting upside back toward the high‑$700s to low‑$800s on a multi‑week view. TS2 Tech
Coincodex’s algorithmic forecast sees the stock in the mid‑$660s to high‑$680s by late December, a 6–7% gain from present levels. TS2 Tech
StockInvest.us’ model projected a “fair” opening price for today around $641.30, with an expected intraday range of roughly $631.85–$649.89 based on recent volatility (±2.9%). ^[22]

These are short‑term trading views, not long‑term investment theses, but they highlight a growing belief that the worst of the immediate post‑earnings panic may be over.

5. The AI Spending Story: $70B Capex, $600B U.S. Commitments

At the heart of today’s Meta debate is one question: will its unprecedented AI spending earn its keep?

Capex Ramp and Free‑Cash‑Flow Squeeze

Between its own guidance and analyst models:

2025 capex is expected around $70–72 billion, almost double 2024 levels. ^[23]
Management has warned 2026 spending will be “notably larger,” with some estimates putting it well above $100 billion. ^[24]
MarketBeat’s scenario analysis suggests 2026 free cash flow could drop to roughly $24 billion, down from $42.5 billion over the past 12 months, even as operating cash flow rises. ^[25]

Separately, Reuters reports that Meta has told U.S. officials it plans to invest “at least $600 billion” in U.S. infrastructure and jobs over the next several years, including massive AI data centers backed by a $27 billion financing deal with Blue Owl Capital for its Louisiana campus and a new $1.5 billion data center in Texas. ^[26]

In other words, Meta is front‑loading an astonishing amount of capital into AI facilities and chips, betting that future revenue and profit will eventually justify today’s cash outflows.

AI Is Already Moving the Needle

The spending isn’t purely speculative. Meta and independent analysts emphasize that AI is already boosting performance across its core business: ^[27]

Feed ranking and recommendations (especially Reels on Instagram and Facebook) now rely heavily on large‑scale AI models, increasing time‑spent and engagement.
AI‑powered ad tools direct tens of billions of dollars in ad spend, improving conversion and allowing Meta to charge more per impression.
Q3 saw double‑digit growth in ad impressions and pricing, while daily active users across the Family of Apps continued to climb. TS2 Tech+1

Reality Labs (VR/AR and hardware) remains a large loss‑making segment, but analysts increasingly view it as long‑dated option value on mixed reality and “spatial computing,” especially as AI is integrated into future devices. ^[28]

Climate and Infrastructure: AI’s Energy Footprint

There’s also a growing ESG angle. An ESG Dive roundup notes that:

Meta’s data center emissions rose 22% year‑over‑year in 2024, even as its direct (Scope 1 and 2) emissions fell 3.5%. ^[29]
The company aims for net‑zero emissions across its supply chain by 2030, and is signing a string of deals to support that, including:
- A 20‑year nuclear power purchase agreement with Constellation Energy in Illinois.
- A 150 MW geothermal power project in New Mexico.
- Large solar partnerships in Texas and South Carolina. ^[30]

AI is thus reshaping not just Meta’s P&L, but also its capital structure, environmental footprint and regulatory exposure.

6. Institutional Buyers vs. Insider Sellers

Today’s filings and December 2 coverage show a clear pattern: big money is still accumulating Meta stock, even as some insiders cash in.

Institutions Adding on Weakness

Recent MarketBeat‑tracked 13F filings highlight several moves: ^[31]

Franklin Resources increased its stake in Meta by 4.9% in Q2, now holding about 8.6 million shares (~0.34% of the company), worth roughly $6.35 billion and making Meta its sixth‑largest position (1.7% of its portfolio).
Bahl & Gaynor, Evelyn Partners, Bluegrass Capital Partners, Journey Strategic Wealth and others have also reported boosting their Meta holdings.
Overall, about 80% of Meta’s shares are now held by institutions and hedge funds. ^[32]

These moves fit a broader narrative from several analyses (including TS2 Tech and CoinCentral) that “smart money” has been buying the dip after the AI capex‑induced sell‑off. TS2 Tech+1

Insider Activity: Selling Into Strength

At the same time, insiders have been selling:

Meta’s CAO Aaron Anderson and CTO Andrew Bosworth both sold stock in November at prices around $590, and altogether insiders have sold ~40,900 shares (about $26 million) over the past three months. ^[33]
Even after these sales, insiders still hold about 13.6% of the stock, according to MarketBeat’s tally. ^[34]

Insider selling is not unusual after a big multi‑year run‑up, but it adds to the perception that some executives are monetizing gains while the company embarks on a risky AI spending cycle.

7. Meta vs. Alphabet and the AI Mega‑Caps

A fresh Trefis comparison published today argues that Meta offers better value and faster growth than Alphabet at current prices. ^[35]

Key metrics they highlight:

Price / Operating Income (P/OpInc):
- Alphabet: 30.7x
- Meta: 19.7x
Last‑twelve‑month revenue growth:
- Alphabet: 13.4%
- Meta: 21.3%
LTM operating income growth:
- Alphabet: 18.0%
- Meta: 31.2%
Operating margin:
- Alphabet: 32.2%
- Meta: 43.2%

In other words, Meta is growing faster and earning higher margins, yet trades at a lower multiple on operating income.

On the other hand, the 24/7 Wall St piece from December 1 warns that Meta is less diversified than Alphabet or Microsoft, and that the current AI cycle may already be mature. The author argues that if you want AI plus advertising exposure, Alphabet may be a safer choice; if you want broader AI infrastructure, Microsoft may be preferable. ^[36]

There is no single consensus: some analysts see Meta as the most mispriced mega‑cap growth stock, while others see concentrated AI and regulatory risk that justifies a discount.

8. Key Risks Into 2026

Recent earnings releases, investor‑relations materials and third‑party analyses highlight several core risk areas. Wikipedia+3TS2 Tech+3Reuters+3

AI Capex Execution Risk
- Billions of dollars in new data centers and chips mean higher depreciation and operating costs for years.
- If AI‑driven monetization (higher ad yield, business messaging, new paid tools) doesn’t ramp fast enough, returns on invested capital could disappoint, compressing margins and free cash flow.
Regulatory and Legal Pressure
- Meta has warned of “increasing headwinds in the EU and U.S.”, citing its Less Personalized Ads offering, youth‑safety lawsuits and other regulatory moves that could hurt revenue or lead to large fines as early as late 2025 and 2026. TS2 Tech+1
- Scrutiny around political content, deepfakes and scam ads remains intense.
Reality Labs Drag
- VR/AR and metaverse initiatives continue to lose billions per year, with uncertain near‑term payoff. If investors lose patience, they may demand stricter caps on Reality Labs spending. TS2 Tech+1
Competition
- TikTok, YouTube and other platforms are still vying fiercely for user attention and ad dollars.
- In AI infrastructure, Meta must juggle partnerships and competition with Nvidia, Alphabet, Microsoft and others while exploring alternatives like TPUs and custom chips. TS2 Tech+1
Climate and Energy Constraints
- AI drives surging data‑center power demand just as regulators and investors scrutinize emissions.
- Meta’s data center emissions are already rising, and while nuclear, solar and geothermal deals help, they also add complexity and long‑term contractual obligations. ^[37]

9. Meta Stock Forecast 2025–26: How Analysts Frame the Scenarios

No forecast is certain, but today’s research and articles largely align around three broad scenarios (these are frameworks, not personal investment advice):

1. Bullish Scenario – AI Pays Off Quickly

Assumptions distilled from Evercore, Wedbush and other bullish commentary: ^[38]

AI infrastructure translates into higher ad prices, better targeting and new revenue lines (business messaging, AI‑powered tools, assistants).
Regulatory outcomes are painful but manageable; no existential hits to performance advertising.
Reality Labs spending is paced more carefully, with losses narrowing.

In this world, Meta could plausibly trade toward or above current high‑end price targets ($900–$920) over a 12–24 month horizon, especially if earnings growth stays in the high‑teens or better.

2. Base Case – Growth + Volatility

This is roughly what the consensus in the low‑to‑mid $800s implies: ^[39]

Revenue growth slows from the current mid‑20s to something closer to mid‑teens, but stays robust.
AI capex compresses free cash flow in 2025–26, then stabilizes as new revenue catches up.
Regulatory hits are meaningful but not crippling; Reality Labs remains a drag but within investor tolerance.

Under this scenario, analysts generally see 25–35% upside over the next year or so, albeit with continued sharp swings around earnings and AI news.

3. Bearish Scenario – Overspend and Under‑Deliver

A more cautious narrative, emphasized by skeptics like the 24/7 Wall St piece, looks like this: ^[40]

Capex continues rising, but monetization lags, so returns on the AI build‑out disappoint.
EU or U.S. regulators impose stricter limits on tracking and targeted ads, hitting ARPU and ad load.
Reality Labs remains a long‑term cash drain with no clear payoff.

In that world, Meta could trade sideways or retest the lower end of its recent range, as investors demand a lower multiple and greater proof of AI profitability.

10. Bottom Line: What December 2, 2025 Means for Meta Shareholders

Putting today’s news and forecasts together:

The business is strong. Q3 showed powerful revenue and profit growth, with AI already lifting engagement and ad monetization across Meta’s apps. TS2 Tech+1
The stock is in a tug‑of‑war. Bears focus on the massive AI capex ramp, free‑cash‑flow compression and regulatory risks; bulls highlight double‑digit revenue growth, high margins, and consensus price targets 25–35% above today’s price. ^[41]
Smart money is split but engaged. Institutions like Franklin Resources and other large funds have been buying on weakness, even as insiders take some profits. ^[42]
Technical trends are healing, not healed. The stock has bounced off recent lows, but remains below its 50‑day moving average; technicians are watching the $672–$685 resistance zone as a key line in the sand. ^[43]

For investors, Meta on December 2, 2025 is neither a simple bargain nor an obvious bubble. It is:

A cash‑rich, dominant digital advertising platform that has chosen to front‑load one of the largest AI infrastructure build‑outs in corporate history.

Whether that choice pays off will depend on:

How quickly AI drives higher ad yield and new revenue streams;
How disciplined management is with Reality Labs and overall capex; and
How hard regulators push on privacy, youth safety and AI‑related harms.

Nothing here is personal financial advice. If you’re considering Meta, it’s important to weigh these opportunities and risks against your own time horizon, risk tolerance and portfolio, or speak with a qualified financial adviser before making any decisions.