Published: December 2, 2025 – Not investment advice
Lennar Corporation (NYSE: LEN) heads into its next earnings report with its share price hovering around $130 and investors weighing a rare Sell rating from BTIG against a growing stake from Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway and the completion of a major balance-sheet reshaping spin-off. [1]
Here’s a deep dive into the latest Lennar stock news, forecasts and analysis as of December 2, 2025, and what it could mean for the homebuilder’s outlook into 2026.
Lennar stock today: price, valuation and performance
As of early afternoon on December 2, 2025, Lennar’s Class A shares (ticker LEN) trade near $130, down slightly on the day.
Key snapshot metrics:
- Share price: about $130
- 52‑week range: roughly $98 to $176–178, leaving the stock about 25–30% below its 52‑week high but well above its lows. TS2 Tech+1
- Trailing EPS: around $10.1 per share. [2]
- Trailing P/E: just under 13x earnings, based on recent P/E readings near 12.9–13.0. [3]
- Price‑to‑book: about 1.4x, and price‑to‑sales close to 1x. [4]
- Dividend:$0.50 per quarter ($2.00 annualized), for a yield of roughly 1.5% at current prices. [5]
Performance-wise, Lennar has given back a chunk of its post‑pandemic gains. Several analyses note that the stock is down high single digits to around 10% year-to-date in 2025, and roughly 25% below its level a year ago, even after a rebound from this autumn’s lows. [6]
For long‑term holders, though, the story is more flattering: five‑year total returns remain strongly positive, reflecting the big up‑cycle in homebuilding from 2020–2022. TS2 Tech+1
2025 so far: resilient orders, softer prices and squeezed margins
Lennar’s 2025 financials tell a consistent story: volumes are holding up, but profitability is under pressure as the company leans on incentives and mortgage‑rate buydowns to keep homes affordable.
Q3 2025: earnings miss and margin compression
For the third quarter ended August 31, 2025, Lennar reported: [7]
- Revenue: about $8.8 billion, down roughly 6–7% year over year.
- GAAP EPS:$2.29 vs. $4.26 a year earlier.
- Adjusted EPS (ex tech gains): about $2.00, roughly a 49% drop from last year’s Q3.
- New orders: up about 12% to ~23,000 homes.
- Deliveries: ~21,600 homes, essentially flat year over year.
- Average selling price (ASP): down to roughly $380k–$385k from about $420k+ a year earlier.
- Homebuilding gross margin: around 17.5%, down from about 22.5% in Q3 2024.
Management explicitly linked lower prices and margins to heavier incentives and rate buydowns intended to keep demand flowing in a high‑rate environment. TS2 Tech+1
An Investopedia recap highlighted that Lennar’s Q3 revenue and adjusted EPS both missed analyst estimates, and shares slid nearly 6% on the day as investors digested the margin squeeze and weaker housing backdrop. [8]
On the positive side, operations remain very tight:
- Cycle times improved to roughly 126 days, the shortest in Lennar’s history.
- The company is keeping completed, unsold inventory extremely low, with fewer than two finished homes per active community. [9]
- Lennar continued to repurchase stock, buying back more than 4 million shares in Q3 at an average price around the low $120s. TS2 Tech
The combination of flat to rising volumes, falling ASPs and pressure on gross margin is what most analysts now see as the central tension in the Lennar story.
Q4 2025 guidance and earnings date: expectations are already lowered
Lennar’s own guidance for Q4 2025, issued with the Q3 results and subsequent commentary, was deliberately cautious: TS2 Tech+2Seeking Alpha+2
- Deliveries:22,000–23,000 homes.
- New orders:20,000–21,000 homes.
- Average selling price:$380,000–$390,000.
- Homebuilding gross margin: around 17.5% (roughly flat vs. Q3).
- SG&A:7.8–8.0% of home sales.
- Financial services operating earnings:$130–$135 million.
- EPS guidance:$2.10–$2.30 for Q4, well below earlier consensus near $2.74.
That guidance effectively reset expectations lower. MarketBeat notes that Lennar’s Q4 EPS range is clearly under the prior Street consensus and implies another sizable year‑over‑year earnings decline. [10]
On timing, multiple data providers currently show December 10, 2025 as the next earnings date, although some calendars had previously projected December 9. [11] Investors should check their broker or Lennar’s investor relations page closer to the day for the final confirmed time.
Millrose exchange offer: Lennar doubles down on “asset‑light” homebuilding
One of the most important strategic moves Lennar has made this year is the spin‑off and subsequent split‑off of Millrose Properties, Inc. (NYSE: MRP), a land‑banking REIT that now acts as a capital-light land partner to Lennar and other builders.
February 2025: Millrose spin-off
- In February 2025, Lennar spun off about 80% of Millrose to its shareholders, retaining roughly 20% of the REIT. TS2 Tech+1
- Millrose’s business model is to acquire, improve and hold land and then sell or lease lots to homebuilders, allowing companies like Lennar to commit less capital to land banks and more to actual construction. Barron’s has highlighted Millrose’s roughly 9%+ dividend yield and land‑banking role as a potentially attractive complement to builders’ balance sheets. [12]
October–November 2025: oversubscribed exchange offer
To divest its remaining stake, Lennar launched a split‑off exchange offer in October 2025, allowing Class A shareholders to tender Lennar shares for Millrose shares at an effective discount. [13]
Final terms and results, announced November 26: [14]
- Final exchange ratio:4.1367 Millrose shares per Lennar share accepted.
- Total Lennar shares validly tendered: about 85.3 million.
- Total Lennar shares accepted:8,049,594 (the full amount Lennar was willing to take).
- Millrose shares exchanged:33,298,754, representing Lennar’s entire remaining 20% stake.
- The offer was significantly oversubscribed, so most large holders had only a small fraction of their tendered shares accepted; “odd‑lot” holders (fewer than 100 shares) who tendered all their stock were not prorated.
From a capital‑structure standpoint, the transaction:
- Removed Millrose from Lennar’s balance sheet, completing the move toward a more asset‑light, option‑heavy land strategy. [15]
- Reduced Lennar’s share count by just over 8 million Class A shares, once those shares are retired or held off‑market. [16]
Insider filings show that Executive Chairman Stuart Miller and at least one director participated in the exchange, tendering some of their Lennar shares for Millrose, and Miller also donated a portion of his Lennar stake to charity. [17]
For investors, the Millrose split‑off matters in three ways:
- Cleaner balance sheet – Less capital tied up in land, more flexibility to navigate cycles.
- Potentially higher returns on equity – If Lennar can maintain volumes without owning land outright.
- Reduced share count – Which can support future EPS growth even if net income is flat.
Leadership transition: Jaffe retires, Miller becomes sole CEO
On November 14, 2025, Lennar announced that longtime Co‑CEO and President Jonathan (Jon) Jaffe will retire and step down from the board effective December 31, 2025, after a 42‑year career with the company. [18]
Key points from the announcement:
- Stuart Miller will remain Executive Chairman and will serve as Lennar’s sole Chief Executive Officer.
- The board will be reduced in size following Jaffe’s departure. [19]
- Management framed the move as an effort to streamline leadership and support Lennar’s push into more affordable housing, technology‑enabled operations and the asset‑light land strategy. TS2 Tech+1
A recent Yahoo Finance analysis on the transition noted that investors are scrutinizing whether Lennar can maintain its operational discipline and growth strategy through this change in leadership at a time when margins and affordability are already under pressure. [20]
The leadership shift also features prominently in today’s BTIG downgrade, which cites “operational transition concerns” among the reasons for moving to a Sell rating. [21]
Street view: BTIG Sell vs. Hold‑heavy consensus
Fresh calls as of December 2, 2025
- BTIG today downgraded Lennar from Neutral to Sell and set a $96 price target, implying materially more downside from current levels. The note mentions ongoing operational transitions, the Millrose split‑off and a tougher housing backdrop as reasons to be cautious. [22]
- JPMorgan this morning raised its price target on Lennar to $118 from $92, keeping a Neutral rating. MarketScreener data shows JPMorgan’s change within a broader consensus of mostly neutral stances from large banks. [23]
Broader analyst consensus
Despite the BTIG Sell, most aggregated data still show a “Hold”‑leaning consensus:
- MarketScreener lists about 20 analysts covering Lennar, with a mean consensus of Hold and an average target around $127 versus a recent close near $130, implying low‑single‑digit downside. [24]
- MarketBeat shows 19 analysts with an average 12‑month price target near $121.8, with estimates ranging from about $95 to $161. [25]
- Public.com reports 14 analysts with a Hold rating and a 2025 price prediction around $125.8 per share. [26]
- TickerNerd cites 30 Wall Street analysts with a neutral consensus and a median target of $125.50 (range $92–$161), suggesting roughly 3–4% downside from recent prices. [27]
- Fintel data put the average one‑year target near $133, with a broad range from about $96 to $169. [28]
Earlier in 2025, Benzinga’s aggregated ratings showed Lennar carrying a Sell‑leaning consensus with a mean target around $131.6, so sentiment has moderated from outright bearish to more neutral as the year has progressed. [29]
In short: almost everybody agrees Lennar isn’t screaming cheap or expensive right now, and price targets cluster close to the current share price. The big disagreement is about directional risk—BTIG and Zacks argue that earnings revisions and housing risk skew the story down, while some value‑oriented research shops see moderate upside if the cycle turns.
Zacks “Bear of the Day” and negative EPS revisions
Zacks recently named Lennar its “Bear of the Day”, citing: [30]
- A post‑earnings slide of about 7% after the September Q3 release.
- Gross margins on home sales falling to 17.5% from 22.5% a year earlier.
- Consensus earnings estimates for 2025 and 2026 dropping roughly 8–9% over the last two months.
- A longer‑running trend where the 2025 EPS consensus has fallen almost 50% over the past year, and the 2026 EPS consensus is down nearly as much.
Zacks assigns Lennar a Rank #5 (Strong Sell), arguing that the direction of estimate revisions is unfavorable and that investors might prefer to wait for clearer signs of a housing‑market rebound and margin stabilization.
Buffett & Berkshire: a high‑profile vote of confidence
Balancing that negativity is one of the most powerful endorsements any stock can get: Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway has been buying Lennar.
Regulatory filings and portfolio trackers show that in 2025 Berkshire: [31]
- Initiated a new stake in Lennar in Q1 2025, then
- Increased the position significantly in Q2, buying about 5.1 million additional shares, and
- Added modestly again in Q3, bringing the total to roughly 7.05 million shares.
Estimates from Fintel, CNBC and Benzinga put the value of Berkshire’s Lennar stake at around $900 million–$925 million as of late 2025, representing roughly 3% of Lennar’s Class A shares outstanding. [32]
At the same time, Berkshire has:
- Exited or reduced positions in other homebuilders, notably selling out of D.R. Horton while adding to Lennar. [33]
Analyses of Buffett’s move generally argue that:
- Berkshire is betting on a long‑term U.S. housing shortage and Lennar’s ability to ride out cyclical downturns. [34]
- Lennar’s scale, balance sheet strength and asset‑light strategy make it a logical way to express that view. [35]
While Buffett’s involvement doesn’t guarantee future returns, the fact that Berkshire kept adding through 2025, rather than trading the position quickly, is an important part of the bull case.
How models and valuation services see Lennar
Different valuation frameworks are currently giving divergent signals on Lennar stock.
Discounted cash flow (DCF) vs. earnings multiples
A recent Simply Wall St/Sahm Capital valuation article offers a good illustration: [36]
- On a DCF basis, using forecasts that take Lennar’s free cash flow from about –$700 million today to $2.15 billion in 2026, then gradually down to around $1.35 billion by 2035, their model arrives at an intrinsic value near $81 per share – implying Lennar is trading at roughly a 50% premium to fair value.
- However, when looking at P/E versus industry peers, Lennar’s current P/E around 11.5–13x sits in line with or slightly below many consumer‑durable peers, and their “Fair P/E” metric of roughly 15x suggests the stock is undervalued on that particular measure.
Simply Wall St’s forward‑looking growth snapshot adds more nuance: [37]
- Earnings (total) are forecast to decline modestly—about 1–2% per year,
- Revenue is expected to grow around 5% annually,
- EPS is forecast to grow in the low‑teens thanks largely to share buybacks,
- Return on equity is projected around 13–14% in three years.
Other quantitative snapshots:
- P/E ratios from Macrotrends, YCharts, FullRatio and GuruFocus all cluster near 12–13x as of late November / early December 2025. [38]
- Yahoo Finance key‑statistics pages show price‑to‑book around 1.4x and PEG ratios modestly above 2, hinting at a reasonable valuation but not an obvious deep value play. [39]
“Is Lennar cheap?” depends on your narrative
Put simply:
- If you assume margins stay where they are and cash flow normalizes quickly, Lennar at ~13x earnings and ~1.5% yield can look attractive. [40]
- If you assume a prolonged period of compressed margins and weak free cash flow, DCF‑style models can easily tag the stock as overvalued. [41]
That split in valuation frameworks is one reason you see “Hold” on average but strong opinions on both sides.
Macro backdrop: rate cuts, affordability and the housing cycle
The macro environment is doing a lot of the talking for Lennar right now.
- Mortgage rates: 30‑year fixed mortgage rates have eased from their 2023 peaks near 7.8% to around 6.1–6.3% in late 2025, still high by pre‑pandemic standards but moving in the right direction. [42]
- Fed policy: The Federal Reserve’s recent rate cut in September 2025 was explicitly flagged by CEO Stuart Miller as a potential demand catalyst heading into Q4, though he also said Lennar would “moderate volume” to let the market catch up. [43]
- Housing shortage: Many analysts continue to highlight a structural shortage of U.S. housing units, which should support long‑term demand for new construction once affordability improves. [44]
Investors are essentially debating timing:
- Bulls argue that Lennar’s cost controls, asset‑light land strategy, and Berkshire‑backed balance sheet leave it well‑positioned for the next upswing in housing. [45]
- Bears argue that earnings estimate cuts, margin erosion and near‑term macro uncertainty justify a lower multiple and potentially further downside before the next housing cycle fully kicks in. [46]
Lennar stock forecast: bull, base and bear scenarios
Nothing in markets is guaranteed, but current data and commentary support three broad narratives for Lennar stock into 2026. These are not predictions or personalized advice, just ways investors are framing the risk/reward.
Bull case: “Buffett is early, not wrong”
In the optimistic scenario:
- Mortgage rates drift closer to 6% or below in 2026, unlocking incremental demand. [47]
- Lennar’s cycle‑time improvements and overhead discipline allow margins to stabilize near the mid‑teens and gradually expand. [48]
- The Millrose spin-off and land‑light model keep returns on equity healthy without stretching the balance sheet. [49]
- EPS grows via modest revenue growth plus ongoing buybacks, supporting low‑double‑digit EPS growth, roughly in line with Simply Wall St’s projections. [50]
If that plays out, it isn’t hard for bulls to justify Lennar rerating to a mid‑teens P/E, especially with Berkshire in the shareholder base—hence bullish research pieces asking whether Lennar could “jump 50%” from here over a multi‑year horizon. [51]
Base case: “Grinding through the down‑cycle”
In a middle‑of‑the‑road view:
- Rates remain elevated but drift lower slowly, leaving affordability tight but not catastrophic. [52]
- Lennar’s volumes stay solid, but ongoing use of incentives keeps gross margins around 16–18% rather than snapping back to 20%+ quickly. TS2 Tech+2TradingView+2
- EPS growth is modest, driven more by buybacks and operational fine‑tuning than by big revenue gains.
In this scenario, the current Hold consensus and price targets slightly below today’s price make sense: investors collect a small dividend, maybe modest capital gains if the multiple edges upward, but the stock is more of a “show‑me” value play than a momentum darling.
Bear case: “Earnings revisions aren’t done yet”
The bear case lines up with Zacks’ Strong Sell and BTIG’s new Sell: [53]
- The housing market stays sluggish longer than expected, with affordability still squeezed even after rate cuts.
- Lennar must keep leaning on incentives, further pressuring margins and free cash flow.
- Earnings estimates continue to drift lower, and valuation metrics that look “reasonable” today look rich against a lower earnings base.
- DCF models that already show a ~50% overvaluation may gain more traction, anchoring sentiment around lower fair values.
In that world, BTIG’s $96 target and DCF‑based fair values near $80 become more plausible reference points, and the stock could remain under pressure even with Buffett in the picture.
What to watch next
For anyone following Lennar stock into the end of 2025 and early 2026, the key catalysts are:
- Q4 2025 earnings (expected December 10, 2025):
- Does Lennar hit or beat its own EPS range of $2.10–$2.30?
- Do gross margins hold the roughly 17.5% level or slip further? TS2 Tech+1
- Order trends and pricing:
- Are new orders and backlog growing, and at what price points?
- Is the company seeing any improvement in buyer sentiment as rates edge down?
- Guidance for 2026:
- Any commentary on margin recovery, land strategy, or further cost‑cutting will go straight into analyst models. [54]
- Execution of the leadership transition:
- How smoothly does Lennar operate with Stuart Miller as sole CEO after Jon Jaffe’s retirement at year‑end? [55]
- Berkshire’s next 13F:
- Does Buffett’s team add to, hold, or trim the Lennar stake in 2026? Markets tend to pay attention. [56]
Bottom line
As of December 2, 2025, Lennar stock sits at the crossroads of competing narratives:
- A high‑profile, long‑term bet from Berkshire Hathaway and a completed pivot toward an asset‑light land strategy,
- Against a backdrop of margin compression, negative earnings revisions, a new Sell rating from BTIG and lingering housing affordability challenges.
Most Wall Street targets cluster near today’s share price, reflecting a wait‑and‑see stance. Whether Lennar becomes a classic Buffett‑style value compounder from here, or spends more time grinding through a tough down‑cycle, will likely hinge on Q4 results, 2026 guidance, and how quickly lower interest rates translate into better housing demand.
Again, this article is for information and education only, not a recommendation to buy or sell Lennar or any other security. If you’re considering an investment decision, it’s important to weigh this information against your own financial situation, risk tolerance and time horizon, and to consult a qualified financial adviser where appropriate.
References
1. www.investing.com, 2. fullratio.com, 3. www.macrotrends.net, 4. finance.yahoo.com, 5. investors.lennar.com, 6. www.sahmcapital.com, 7. investors.lennar.com, 8. www.investopedia.com, 9. investors.lennar.com, 10. www.marketbeat.com, 11. www.investing.com, 12. www.barrons.com, 13. investors.lennar.com, 14. newsroom.lennar.com, 15. www.trefis.com, 16. www.prnewswire.com, 17. www.stocktitan.net, 18. www.prnewswire.com, 19. www.stocktitan.net, 20. finance.yahoo.com, 21. www.investing.com, 22. www.investing.com, 23. www.marketscreener.com, 24. www.marketscreener.com, 25. www.marketbeat.com, 26. public.com, 27. tickernerd.com, 28. fintel.io, 29. www.benzinga.com, 30. www.tradingview.com, 31. fintel.io, 32. fintel.io, 33. www.housingwire.com, 34. financhill.com, 35. www.marketbeat.com, 36. www.sahmcapital.com, 37. simplywall.st, 38. www.macrotrends.net, 39. finance.yahoo.com, 40. www.trefis.com, 41. www.sahmcapital.com, 42. www.tradingview.com, 43. www.investopedia.com, 44. financhill.com, 45. www.trefis.com, 46. www.tradingview.com, 47. www.marketbeat.com, 48. investors.lennar.com, 49. newsroom.lennar.com, 50. simplywall.st, 51. www.forbes.com, 52. www.investopedia.com, 53. www.tradingview.com, 54. www.trefis.com, 55. www.prnewswire.com, 56. fintel.io
