London, 2 December 2025 — BP’s share price is finishing 2025 on the front foot. The oil major has just delivered a better‑than‑expected third quarter, launched another $750m share buyback and confirmed a strategy that leans harder into oil and gas while trimming its green ambitions. At the same time, it’s navigating a scrapped UK hydrogen mega‑project, a pipeline leak in the US and harsher tax and regulatory headwinds at home.
Here’s a detailed look at where the BP share price stands today, what’s been driving it, and how analysts see BP stockinto 2026.
BP share price today: London and New York snapshot
London (LSE: BP.)
- BP’s London‑listed shares closed around 457p on 2 December 2025.
- Day move: up roughly 0.1% on the session. [1]
- 52‑week range: about 329p–476p, putting the current BP share price closer to the top of its one‑year range. [2]
- Performance: over the last year the BP share price is up about 19%, and about 27% over six months, reflecting a strong run since mid‑2025. [3]
- Dividend yield: Hargreaves Lansdown data shows a forward dividend yield of ~5.3%, based on recent quarterly payouts. [4]
New York (NYSE: BP)
- BP’s US‑listed ADR was trading around $36.4 per share in mid‑session on 2 December (about –0.4% on the day).
- The ADR is roughly 3% below its 52‑week high of $37.64, reached on 11 November 2025. [5]
Despite softer oil prices, BP stock is therefore sitting close to recent highs on both sides of the Atlantic, supported by earnings, aggressive cash returns and a strategy reset that investors broadly see as more cash‑flow‑focused.
Earnings beat and $750m buyback: what’s been driving the BP share price?
Q3 2025: profits ahead of forecasts, cash still strong
On 4 November, BP reported underlying Q3 2025 profit of about $2.21bn, comfortably ahead of analyst expectations around $2.02bn. [6]
Key points from the quarter:
- Cash generation: operating cash flow came in around $7.8bn, up roughly $1.5bn on the previous quarter, helped by a working‑capital release and strong refining margins. [7]
- Operations: upstream production rose about 3% quarter‑on‑quarter, with plant reliability near 97%. Refining availability was also close to 97%, the best quarter in about twenty years for BP’s current portfolio. [8]
- Dividends: BP declared a Q3 dividend of 8.32 US cents per ordinary share, payable on 19 December 2025, continuing a gently rising pattern from 8.0c payouts in 2024. [9]
In other words, even with oil prices well down on 2022–23 levels, BP is still throwing off billions in quarterly cash flow and nudging the dividend upwards, which underpins support for the share price.
New $750m buyback — on top of the last one
Alongside Q3 results, BP confirmed yet another $750m share buyback, to be executed between 4 November 2025 and 6 February 2026. [10]
Regulatory filings summarised in a recent SEC Form 6‑K show:
- The programme is explicitly aimed at reducing BP’s issued share capital.
- Throughout November, BP bought back roughly 1.5 million shares per trading day in London and on Cboe UK, at volume‑weighted average prices mostly between 450p and 470p.
- By 28 November, BP held about 837m ordinary shares in treasury, with around 15.65bn ordinary shares in issue — implying that the share count has fallen materially versus a year ago. [11]
Independent analysis suggests that, when you combine the buyback with the cash dividend, BP is currently delivering a double‑digit total “shareholder yield” – roughly mid‑single‑digit via buybacks plus a 5%+ cash yield. TechStock²+1
That combination of high yield + earnings support is a major reason the BP share price has ground higher through 2025, even as oil itself has slid.
Oil prices are softer – but still supportive for BP stock
Brent crude has eased sharply from the post‑2022 highs, but remains profitable territory for a supermajor like BP:
- On 2 December 2025, Brent crude was trading around $63 per barrel, roughly flat on the day and down about 14% from a year earlier. [12]
- WTI is hovering just below $60. [13]
Despite that decline, BP’s Q3 numbers show it can still generate billions in cash at these levels, thanks to better reliability, strong refining margins and a tighter capital‑spending plan. CEO Murray Auchincloss has said explicitly that falling oil prices will not derail the company’s turnaround strategy, pointing to a plan to grow annual cash flow from around $8bn to $14bn by 2027 while cutting net debt to $14–18bn (from roughly $26bn today). [14]
“Reset BP”: more oil & gas, less green capex
A big part of the BP share price story in 2025 is a strategic reset that leans back into hydrocarbons.
In February 2025, BP set out a new plan — sometimes dubbed “reset bp” — that:
- Raises oil & gas investment to around $10bn per year through 2027.
- Cuts energy transition capex (biogas, biofuels, EV charging, renewables) to about $1.5–2bn per year, more than $5bn a year lower than previous guidance.
- Trims total capital expenditure to $13–15bn per year through 2027.
- Targets around $20bn in asset divestments by 2027.
- Aims to reduce net debt into a $14–18bn range and return 30–40% of operating cash flow to shareholders via dividends and buybacks, with the dividend intended to grow at least 4% a year, subject to board approval. TechStock²
Analysts are split:
- RBC’s Biraj Borkhataria calls the pivot back to higher‑margin oil and gas “strategically sensible” but argues that near‑term shareholder returns still lag peers such as Shell and Exxon, justifying a more cautious Neutral/Holdstance. TechStock²
- Other commentators like the improved transparency around cash returns, but warn that rolling back some earlier climate targets could intensify ESG and policy risks over time. TechStock²+1
For now, though, markets appear to favour visible cash returns and a simpler story over ambitious but capital‑intensive green projects — one reason BP shares have outperformed many clean‑energy names in 2025.
Hydrogen U‑turn, pipeline leak and UK tax: the other headlines around BP
H2Teesside scrapped in favour of an AI data centre
In one of 2025’s most symbolic moves, BP has abandoned its H2Teesside hydrogen and carbon‑capture project in north‑east England.
According to the Financial Times and subsequent summaries:
- H2Teesside was once billed as a flagship “blue hydrogen” hub that could have delivered a significant chunk of the UK’s 2030 low‑carbon hydrogen target.
- BP pulled the plug after the closure of a key industrial customer (chemicals producer Sabic), rising projected costs and weaker‑than‑expected local hydrogen demand.
- The site will instead be repurposed as one of Europe’s largest AI data centres, under a UK government “AI growth zones” plan. [15]
BP is still involved in Teesside via a gas‑fired power station with carbon capture, but shelving H2Teesside has reinforced the perception that its energy‑transition spending will be more selective and capital‑light than previously promised.
Olympic Pipeline leak in Washington state
In the US, BP confronted a more traditional operational issue in November when a leak was detected on its Olympic Pipeline in Washington state.
- The company temporarily shut the entire system, then restarted the smaller line after checks.
- Repairs on the larger line were completed and normal operations resumed around 29 November, with around 2,300 gallons of product recovered as of 30 November. TechStock²
Early indications suggest the incident is not financially material, but it’s a reminder that pipeline and refining businesses carry environmental and reputational risks that can quickly affect the BP share price if things go wrong.
UK North Sea policy: higher taxes, fewer licences
BP also operates against a tougher UK policy backdrop:
- On 26 November 2025, the UK Labour government confirmed it would ban new North Sea oil and gas exploration licences and maintain the existing windfall tax, leaving an effective tax rate near 78% on UK upstream profits. TechStock²
- Only limited new projects that tie back to existing fields will be allowed, making the UK North Sea more of a mature cash cow than a growth engine.
Industry body Offshore Energies UK has warned that the region’s annual spending has more than halved since 2015 and that the workforce has dropped from around 450,000 to 200,000, trends likely to continue under the new regime. TechStock²
For BP shareholders, the takeaway is clear: don’t expect big new UK exploration upside – and expect heavy taxation on existing assets.
Cost cuts, asset sales and credit quality
BP is also in the middle of a major efficiency drive:
- The company aims to complete about $20bn of asset sales by 2027 and has already guided that completed or announced disposals should total about $5bn in 2025, including US midstream and onshore wind assets, Dutch fuel stations and EV charging hubs. [16]
- The Guardian reports plans for more aggressive cost‑cutting, including the reduction of around 6,200 office‑based roles and 3,200 contractor jobs, as automation and AI are rolled out more widely. [17]
On the flip side, credit agencies remain relatively comfortable:
- In May 2025, Fitch Ratings affirmed BP’s long‑term rating at ‘A+’ with a Stable Outlook, citing strong business diversification and robust cash‑flow generation at mid‑cycle oil prices. [18]
Overall, the balance sheet isn’t bullet‑proof but is far stronger than in the early 2020s, giving BP room to fund buybacks, dividends and selective growth projects — another underpinning for the BP share price.
BP share price forecasts: what analysts expect for 2026
New York (ADR) price targets
Across Wall Street, analyst targets for the BP ADR (NYSE: BP) cluster in the high‑$30s to low‑$40s, with notable dispersion:
- MarketBeat: average 12‑month target $43.14, high $66, low $26.50 — implying about 19% upside from around $36.4. [19]
- StockAnalysis: nine analysts, average target $39.87, about 9–10% upside, with a consensus rating of “Hold”. [20]
- MarketWatch / WSJ data: average target around $39.7–39.9, with an “Overweight” or equivalent positive tilt based on 30+ ratings. [21]
- Investing.com: 18 analysts, average target about $40.6, high $67, low $31.2, with an overall “Buy” consensus. [22]
- Zacks: short‑term target around $41.5 based on 14 analyst estimates. [23]
Taken together, most big brokers see single‑ to low‑double‑digit upside for the BP ADR over the next year, with a moderately bullish skew but a wide range of opinions.
Some quantitative and technical‑analysis sites are more cautious, flagging that the current price already sits in the upper part of their 2025 projected trading band (roughly $35–38), implying only a low‑single‑digit expected return from here on pure price moves. [24]
London (BP.) price targets
For BP’s London‑listed shares, forecasts are a bit tighter but still point to modest upside:
- MarketBeat (LON: BP.): five analysts, average target 482p (range 420p–525p), around 5% above recent levels. [25]
- TipRanks (LSE BP.): 14 analysts, average 467p, with a high of 525p and a low of 400p; consensus rating “Moderate Buy”. [26]
- Investing.com (LSE BP.): about 474p average target from 19 analysts, high ~531p, low ~419p, with a “Buy”consensus. [27]
- TradingView: aggregated analyst target around 502p, with a max estimate near 845p and a minimum around 405p— a range that illustrates just how contentious BP’s long‑term value is. [28]
UK retail‑investor coverage has highlighted that some analysts think the BP share price could reach about 850p by the end of 2026 – roughly 90% above today’s level – while others warn of potential downside back towards 400p if oil weakens and policy risks bite. [29]
Earnings and dividend growth expectations
Looking further out:
- One recent analysis of BP on Yahoo Finance notes that consensus forecasts project earnings growth of roughly 25% per year through to 2027, helped by cost cuts, new projects and buybacks. [30]
- Another article from The Motley Fool highlights projections for BP’s dividend yield to rise towards ~5.9% by 2027, assuming steady payout growth and a flat share price. [31]
Add in the buyback, and many brokers are effectively modelling a total shareholder return profile in the low‑ to mid‑teens annually — but that is highly sensitive to the oil price path, execution on asset sales and political developments.
Is BP share price cheap or fairly valued?
Valuation is one of the big fault lines in the BP debate.
- On headline IFRS numbers, BP screens oddly expensive: Hargreaves Lansdown reports a trailing P/E ratio above 250x, distorted by large 2024 accounting charges. [32]
- On a normalised basis, Morningstar puts BP on a price/earnings multiple around 13x, more in line with other integrated oil majors and a slight premium to some European peers given the recent share‑price rally. [33]
Analysts like RBC and independent commentators note that:
- BP’s free‑cash‑flow yield (after capex, before buybacks) is still solidly in double digits at current oil prices.
- But valuation multiples are now above the three‑year average, so the easy money from the post‑2020 recovery may already have been made. TechStock²+1
Put simply: bulls see BP shares as an under‑rated cash machine, while bears argue the BP share price already discounts most of the turnaround and still carries heavy policy and ESG risk.
Key risks and catalysts for the BP share price in 2026
Based on recent coverage and broker notes, the main swing factors for BP stock over the next 12–18 months include: TechStock²+2Reuters+2
- Oil and gas prices
- Sustained sub‑$60 Brent or a global downturn would compress cash flow and could force BP to slow buybacks or temper dividend growth.
- Conversely, any spike in prices due to geopolitical shocks or supply disruptions would likely turbo‑charge free cash flow and the BP share price.
- Execution on the “reset bp” strategy
- BP has promised more than 20% compound annual growth in adjusted free cash flow to 2027, plus high‑teens returns on capital. Hitting those numbers requires flawless execution on project delivery, cost cuts and divestments.
- Shareholder returns versus peers
- Investors constantly compare BP’s total yield and growth to Shell, TotalEnergies, Exxon and Chevron. If rivals keep returning more cash or grow faster, BP may struggle to close its valuation gap.
- Policy, tax and climate politics
- The combination of higher UK taxes, North Sea licence bans and rolled‑back climate targets makes BP more exposed to regulatory and reputational shocks than some peers.
- Operational incidents and ESG events
- The Olympic Pipeline leak was small, but a larger incident – or setbacks in carbon‑capture projects, for example – could hit both earnings and ESG‑sensitive investors’ appetite for the stock.
What this means for investors watching the BP share price
Nothing here is personal investment advice, but the current picture for the BP share price on 2 December 2025 can be summarised as:
- The bull case:
- Near 52‑week highs but still trading on a mid‑teens normalised P/E and a 5%+ dividend yield. [34]
- Additional buyback yield taking total cash returns into double digits. [35]
- Solid Q3 earnings and strong operational performance even with Brent around the low‑60s. [36]
- Multiple independent analyst sets pointing to modest upside in the base case and much larger upside in bullish scenarios. [37]
- The bear (or cautious) case:
- The BP share price already trades near its recent highs and above its three‑year valuation average. [38]
- Oil prices are well off post‑2022 peaks and could fall further if global growth slows. [39]
- Strategic U‑turns on hydrogen and green capex, plus heavy reliance on fossil fuels, may leave BP more exposed to policy, ESG and demand‑transition risks than some peers. [40]
For anyone following BP, the next big checkpoints for the BP share price will likely be:
- The Q4 2025 results and 2026 guidance (especially on buybacks and capex).
- Any updates on asset sales (including Castrol) and net‑debt progress. [41]
- How oil, gas and refined‑products prices evolve as geopolitical tensions and OPEC+ supply strategy play out. [42]
This article is for information only and does not constitute investment advice. Always do your own research and consider seeking independent financial advice before buying or selling shares.
References
1. www.hl.co.uk, 2. www.hl.co.uk, 3. www.hl.co.uk, 4. www.hl.co.uk, 5. www.marketwatch.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.marketbeat.com, 8. www.marketbeat.com, 9. www.hl.co.uk, 10. www.tipranks.com, 11. www.stocktitan.net, 12. tradingeconomics.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.ft.com, 15. www.ft.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.theguardian.com, 18. www.fitchratings.com, 19. www.marketbeat.com, 20. stockanalysis.com, 21. www.marketwatch.com, 22. www.investing.com, 23. www.zacks.com, 24. coincodex.com, 25. www.marketbeat.com, 26. www.tipranks.com, 27. www.investing.com, 28. www.tradingview.com, 29. www.fool.co.uk, 30. uk.finance.yahoo.com, 31. www.fool.co.uk, 32. www.hl.co.uk, 33. www.morningstar.com, 34. www.hl.co.uk, 35. www.stocktitan.net, 36. www.reuters.com, 37. www.marketbeat.com, 38. www.hl.co.uk, 39. www.reuters.com, 40. www.ft.com, 41. www.reuters.com, 42. www.reuters.com
