UAMY Stock News and Forecast for December 2, 2025: Can United States Antimony Sustain Its Defense‑Driven Rally?

As of the afternoon of December 2, 2025, United States Antimony Corporation (NYSE: UAMY) – commonly referred to as UAMY stock – is trading around $5.56, up roughly 1–2% on the day and sitting more than 200% higher year‑to‑date. ^[1]

The move caps one of the wildest runs in the critical‑minerals space: UAMY hit an all‑time high near $19.71 in mid‑October before crashing back toward the mid‑single digits, a drop of just over 70% from its peak. ^[2]Over the last three months alone, the stock is still up about 68%, making it a magnet for momentum traders, macro investors and defense‑themed funds alike. ^[3]

This article pulls together the most important UAMY stock news, forecasts and analysis available as of December 2, 2025, to help readers understand what’s driving the share price now – and what could come next. It is informational onlyand not financial advice.

1. UAMY stock today: price, performance and positioning

Current price: about $5.56 (intraday high $5.61, low $5.37, volume ~1.4 million shares).
Yesterday’s close (Dec 1): $5.48, according to multiple market data aggregators. ^[4]
52‑week range: roughly $0.71 – $19.71, with the high set in mid‑October 2025. ^[5]
Year‑to‑date performance: UAMY started 2025 near $1.77 and is now up about 210%. ^[6]

MarketBeat estimates that around 17% of UAMY’s free float is sold short, with short interest rising slightly in recent weeks and a “days to cover” ratio of about 1.3. ^[7] That combination of big gains plus heavy short interestmakes UAMY a prime candidate for sharp squeezes in both directions.

News‑flow is intense as well: MarketBeat tracks 11 news articles on UAMY this week, more than double the company’s normal weekly coverage, and assigns a slightly below‑average news sentiment score compared with other basic‑materials names. ^[8]

2. From obscure miner to “strategic asset”: why UAMY is suddenly in the spotlight

2.1 Only vertically integrated antimony supplier in North America

UAMY is no longer just a tiny specialty metals producer. The company owns the only operating antimony smelter in the United States and controls two permitted antimony smelters in North America (Montana and Mexico), giving it a rare mine‑to‑metal chain in the West. ^[9]

Company presentations and recent conference appearances highlight UAMY as the only fully permitted, vertically integrated antimony producer in North America, and one of the very few such companies outside China. ^[10]

That matters because:

Antimony is a U.S. “critical mineral” used in munitions, defense alloys, batteries, flame retardants and solar applications. ^[11]
China historically dominated global supply and introduced export restrictions on several critical minerals, including antimony, in 2024, which sent prices sharply higher and exposed Western vulnerabilities. ^[12]

In short: UAMY sits on a chokepoint in the supply chain just as Washington is scrambling to secure reliable, non‑Chinese sources of antimony.

2.2 A $245 million Pentagon contract

The single biggest catalyst behind UAMY’s 2025 rally is a five‑year, sole‑source contract worth up to $245 millionwith the U.S. Defense Logistics Agency (DLA). Under the deal, U.S. Antimony will supply antimony metal ingots to build out the national defense stockpile. ^[13]

Key points from that contract:

It is sole‑source, underscoring UAMY’s unique position as the only North American producer capable of delivering on this scale. ^[14]
The first shipments were expected to begin almost immediately after the announcement. ^[15]
The agreement dovetails with a broader U.S. strategy to reduce dependence on Chinese critical‑mineral exports, especially after Beijing’s restrictions disrupted industries from adhesives to electronics. ^[16]

A widely read piece on Seeking Alpha estimated that this DLA contract could translate into roughly $27 million in annual revenue and argued that the subsequent share‑price spike had stretched UAMY’s valuation, prompting a downgrade despite the fundamentally positive news. ^[17]

2.3 A separate $106.7 million supply deal

Just ahead of the Q3 earnings release, another headline hit: a technology news outlet reported that UAMY stock surged on November 11, 2025 after the company secured a separate $106.7 million, five‑year supply agreement, coinciding with headlines about China easing some antimony export restrictions. TechStock²

While details of the counterparty are limited in public summaries, it adds another long‑tail cash‑flow stream on top of the DLA contract, reinforcing the “strategic supplier” narrative.

2.4 Mining restarts, tungsten expansion and global sourcing

Zacks recently highlighted that UAMY shares had jumped 68.4% in three months as the company: ^[18]

ramped up global antimony sourcing,
moved to restart U.S. mining assets, and
pushed into tungsten, another critical mineral with defense and industrial applications.

The same analysis praised UAMY’s positioning but cautioned investors about volatility and execution risk.

2.5 M&A ambitions: the Larvotto bid

Beyond organic growth, UAMY’s parent entity, US Antimony Corp (USAC), has also tried to scale via acquisition. In Australia, USAC made a $722 million offer for Larvotto Resources, an antimony‑gold‑copper developer with several critical‑mineral projects. Larvotto ultimately rejected the bid, noting that the implied value fell as USAC’s share price retreated, but U.S. Antimony retains a 10% stake. ^[19]

The attempted takeover underscores management’s ambition to turn UAMY into a global critical‑minerals platform, not just a single‑asset U.S. producer.

3. Q3 2025 earnings: strong growth, but expectations bite

On November 12, 2025, UAMY reported third‑quarter and nine‑month 2025 results, which have become the backbone of most current UAMY stock analysis. ^[20]

3.1 Revenue and margins are surging

According to company releases and news summaries:

Revenue for the first nine months of 2025 reached about $26.23 million, up roughly 182% year‑over‑year.
Gross profit rose to around $7.22 million, an increase of more than 200%, with gross margin improving from about 24% to 28%. ^[21]

The company also guided full‑year 2025 revenue to the $40–43 million range and outlined an ambitious 2026 revenue outlook of about $125 million, reflecting expectations that defense and supply‑chain contracts will ramp materially next year. ^[22]

Earlier in the year, UAMY’s Q2 2025 results showed similarly dramatic growth: revenue jumped around 160% to $17.5 million, while net income reached roughly $0.7 million, with analysts at the time expecting full‑year sales growth of about 205%. ^[23]

3.2 But Q3 missed Street estimates

Despite the strong year‑over‑year growth, Q3 itself disappointed relative to expectations:

The company posted Q3 revenue of about $8.7 million versus a consensus estimate near $12.9 million.
Earnings came in at a loss of $0.04 per share, wider than the expected $0.02 loss.
Its 2025 revenue guidance of $40–43 million was also below a FactSet consensus near $46.4 million. ^[24]

A detailed breakdown from StocksToTrade framed the quarter as evidence of lingering financial headwinds despite strong top‑line growth, calling out the revenue and EPS miss and the below‑consensus guidance. ^[25]

3.3 Balance sheet and capital moves

Alongside operations, UAMY has been actively shoring up its financing and investor profile:

In April 2025, the company announced a $5 million line of credit with Truist Bank to support ongoing expansions. ^[26]
Throughout 2025, UAMY filed multiple 424B5 registration statements, signaling the potential for share issuance or structured financings. ^[27]
A Yahoo Finance item also noted that UAMY recently entered into a securities purchase agreement, while being highlighted as one of the mining stocks favored by hedge funds. ^[28]

Investors who focus on dilution risk will see these moves as a double‑edged sword: they finance growth but can pressure per‑share metrics if equity is issued aggressively.

4. UAMY stock forecasts: a wide – and uncomfortable – spread

One of the most striking things about UAMY in December 2025 is how wildly different the forecasts are depending on who you ask.

4.1 Traditional analyst ratings

StockAnalysis.com lists UAMY as a “Strong Buy” with an average price target around $5.69, implying only 3–4% upside from current levels – essentially saying the stock is close to fairly valued after its big rally. ^[29]
TickerNerd reports a much more aggressive view: based on two Wall Street analysts, it cites a median price target of $9.75, with a range of $9.00–$10.25. At a recent trading price of about $5.48, that target implies roughly 78% upside, and the stock is labeled a “Strong Buy” with four buy ratings and no holds or sells. ^[30]
TradingView’s forecast page is even more bullish, pointing to an average price target around $12.25, with estimates spanning $9 to $20. ^[31]

4.2 Quant models and technical services

Quant‑driven sites are far less optimistic:

StockInvest.us, which focuses on short‑term trading signals, recently projected a “fair” opening price of about $5.66 for December 2, 2025 – very close to where the stock is actually trading, suggesting a near‑term neutral outlook. ^[32]
Stockscan.io, looking out to 2026, models an average UAMY price around $1.20, with scenarios ranging from roughly $0.08 to $2.32. Based on a recent price near $5.48, that would imply a potential decline of about 78%, underscoring just how fragile some algorithms believe the current valuation might be. ^[33]

4.3 Fundamental vs. valuation debate

Layered over this is the Seeking Alpha downgrade mentioned earlier, which argued that UAMY’s valuation had run ahead of fundamentals after the Pentagon contract rally, even while acknowledging the significance of the DLA deal itself. ^[34]

Taken together, the spread between $12+ bullish targets and sub‑$2 quant forecasts is a loud signal:

UAMY is a high‑uncertainty, high‑conviction stock where different models and analysts are making very different assumptions about future antimony prices, contract utilization, and execution.

5. Technicals and sentiment: whiplash volatility

On the technical side, UAMY looks like a classic story stock:

The shares logged an all‑time high around $19.71 in mid‑October 2025, before collapsing back to the mid‑single digits over the following weeks. ^[35]
A recent AInvest note highlighted that UAMY.A fell about 7.5% intraday on December 1, accompanied by heavy volume (~4.6 million shares) and a bearish “KDJ death cross” pattern, with “no clear reversal” visible on the short‑term chart. ^[36]

Meanwhile, MarketBeat’s data shows:

17.24% of the float sold short, and
short interest edging higher,
which helps explain the violent swings as shorts and longs battle for control of the tape. ^[37]

With this backdrop, many traders are treating UAMY as a tactical trading vehicle rather than a steady buy‑and‑hold name.

6. What UAMY actually does: the business behind the ticker

Behind all the charts and headlines, United States Antimony is trying to build a vertically integrated critical‑minerals platform centered on antimony and related metals.

Key operational points from company filings, presentations and industry coverage:

UAMY operates North America’s only antimony smelter, located in Thompson Falls, Montana, and a second permitted smelter in Mexico. ^[38]
The Montana smelter alone is capable of producing up to 15 million pounds of antimony oxide or 5 million pounds of antimony metal per year, according to a recent industry profile. ^[39]
Company communications describe UAMY as the only vertically integrated antimony producer in the Western Hemisphere and the only North American supplier of antimony trisulfide approved by the DLA – a key qualification for defense contracts. ^[40]
Management has been expanding its land position in Alaska, reviving operations at its Madero smelter in Mexico, and staking or leasing additional claims to secure long‑term sources of ore. ^[41]

In October, an industry outlet reported that UAMY had achieved full “mine‑to‑metal” capability, meaning it can now control the entire chain from mining and concentrating to final antimony products, at a time when U.S. policymakers are urgently seeking China‑free supply routes. ^[42]

7. Key opportunities for UAMY stock

For investors bullish on UAMY, the thesis in December 2025 often boils down to these points:

Unique strategic position
UAMY is effectively the only game in town for vertically integrated antimony in North America, with infrastructure that would be difficult and time‑consuming to replicate. ^[43]
High‑visibility contracts
The $245 million DLA stockpile contract, plus the $106.7 million supply deal, provide multi‑year revenue pipelines that could underpin the company’s aggressive 2026 revenue outlook. ^[44]
Secular tailwind in critical minerals
Western governments are pouring money into domestic critical‑mineral supply chains in response to Chinese export controls, with Reuters specifically highlighting U.S. support for antimony projects – including UAMY’s plans to boost Montana production. ^[45]
Operational leverage
As volumes ramp through existing smelter and processing infrastructure, margins could continue to expand, as early Q2 and Q3 numbers suggest. ^[46]
Optionality from M&A and new metals
The (rejected) Larvotto bid and push into tungsten show management is thinking beyond antimony, potentially adding other critical minerals that ride the same geopolitical wave. ^[47]

8. Major risks and red flags

The bull case is powerful – but so are the risks. Recent commentary and data highlight several concerns UAMY investors should keep in mind:

Extreme volatility and valuation risk
UAMY’s collapse from nearly $20 to the mid‑$5 range in just weeks shows how quickly sentiment can swing. A respected equity‑research note recently labeled the stock overvalued after the DoD rally, even while endorsing the fundamental progress. ^[48]
Contract concentration
A large share of the company’s expected 2025–2027 revenue is tied to a handful of large contracts (DLA, five‑year supply deals). Any delays, renegotiations or performance issues could hit the top line hard. ^[49]
Commodity price and policy risk
UAMY’s fortunes are tightly linked to antimony prices and export policies. If China eases restrictions further or new global supply (such as Perpetua’s Idaho project) comes online, prices could normalize, pressuring margins and contract renewals. ^[50]
Execution and integration
Scaling smelting capacity, restarting dormant mines, and potentially integrating future acquisitions will test management. Missed timelines or cost overruns could erode the value of today’s contracts and forecasts. ^[51]
Financing and dilution
The availability of credit lines, securities purchase agreements, and repeated 424B5 filings suggest that equity issuance or hybrid financings may remain part of the growth playbook, which could dilute existing shareholders. ^[52]
Crowded trade and short‑interest tug‑of‑war
With more than 17% of the float shorted and a flood of news coverage, UAMY is subject to headline‑driven spikes and crashes that may have little to do with day‑to‑day business fundamentals. ^[53]

9. What this all means for UAMY investors

As of December 2, 2025, UAMY sits at the intersection of:

Real, government‑backed demand for a critical defense mineral,
Rapid operational growth and vertical integration, and
Speculative trading, elevated valuation debate, and policy‑driven uncertainty.

Some analysts and thematic investors see UAMY as a long‑term national‑security asset still undervalued relative to its strategic importance, especially if the U.S. remains intent on building a domestic antimony ecosystem. ^[54]

Others – including quant models and valuation‑focused research – worry that the share price already embeds years of perfect execution, leaving little margin for error and a lot of downside if contracts under‑deliver or antimony prices normalize. ^[55]

For short‑term traders, UAMY will likely remain a high‑beta vehicle tied to headlines about defense contracts, China, and critical minerals, with the possibility of both sharp short squeezes and violent sell‑offs.

For longer‑term investors, the key questions now are:

Do you believe UAMY can hit or exceed its $125 million 2026 revenue goal while maintaining or improving margins? ^[56]
How durable will U.S. defense and industrial demand be if global antimony supply loosens? ^[57]
Are you comfortable with the dilution and execution risks implied by rapid expansion and frequent capital‑markets activity? ^[58]

As always, anyone considering UAMY stock should do their own research, read the latest SEC filings and company presentations, and consider speaking with a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions. This article is not a recommendation to buy or sell UAMY or any other security.