UnitedHealth Group (UNH) Stock Today: Price, Forecast and 2026 Recovery Prospects (December 2, 2025)

Ticker: UNH · Exchange: NYSE · Sector: Healthcare / Managed Care

Snapshot: Where UnitedHealth Stock Stands on December 2, 2025

UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH) is trading around $325–326 per share in Tuesday’s session, modestly higher after closing at $323.21 on Monday, December 1, 2025. ^[1]

The stock remains far below its 52‑week high (around $610.79) and only modestly above its recent lows near $238, leaving shares down roughly 40–50% from late‑2024 levels, according to multiple recent analyses that highlight a 47% slide from November 2024. ^[2]

Despite that bruising drawdown, Wall Street consensus still calls UNH a “Buy” with double‑digit upside over the next 12 months. Several fresh research notes and articles published this week — including deep‑value takes, updated price targets, and 2026 recovery scenarios — frame UnitedHealth as a high‑risk, potentially high‑reward turnaround story rather than a broken business. ^[3]

What’s New for UNH on December 2, 2025

A number of new or very recent pieces of research hit the tape just as investors reassess UnitedHealth heading into 2026:

Deep‑value framing: A fresh breakdown from AInvest describes UnitedHealth as a “deep‑value” opportunity after a roughly 47% share‑price decline since November 2024, tying the slide to regulatory scrutiny, operational missteps and reputational fallout from a major cyberattack at a UnitedHealth‑linked unit. ^[4]
DCF suggests big undervaluation: A new discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis argues UNH could be about 60% undervalued, suggesting fair value more than double the current price if management hits long‑term growth targets. ^[5]
Fresh long‑term bullish thesis: A same‑day update on Seeking Alpha, “UnitedHealth: Axing Another Distraction, Onto 2026,” portrays the group as a multi‑year turnaround story, highlighting:
- a planned exit from Latin America, including a roughly $1 billion sale of Banmedica,
- expectations of margin expansion from 2026 onward, and
- raised 2025 guidance with adjusted EPS of at least $16.25 after a strong Q3. ^[6]
Institutional positioning & analyst sentiment: MarketBeat’s latest ownership filings show some funds trimming and others adding UNH, alongside a consensus “Moderate Buy” rating and an average 12‑month price target around $397, implying roughly 20–25% upside from current levels. ^[7]
Short‑term weakness vs. market: A Zacks update notes that UnitedHealth’s 1.99% drop to $323.21 on Monday was steeper than the broader market’s decline, underlining how skittish investors remain around the name despite progress on earnings. ^[8]

Put together, today’s batch of commentary paints a picture of a still‑controversial blue chip: beaten‑down, facing real risk, but increasingly seen by some as a long‑term bargain.

How UnitedHealth Got Here: A Year of Shocks

From earnings miss to outlook reset

2025 has been a turbulent year for UnitedHealth shareholders:

April 2025: UnitedHealth shocked the market with a rare earnings miss and cut to its annual profit forecast. The CEO described the quarter as “unusual and unacceptable”, and shares sold off sharply as investors recalibrated their expectations. ^[9]
July 2025: After suspending its full‑year guidance in May, the company re‑established a 2025 outlook in late July, targeting:
- $445.5–$448.0 billion in revenue,
- at least $14.65 in GAAP EPS, and
- at least $16.00 in adjusted EPS.
  Management also told investors it expects to return to earnings growth in 2026. ^[10]
Q2 & medical cost pressure: Even as revenue grew, second‑quarter results fell short of expectations, with a conservative 2025 forecast reflecting elevated medical cost trends — more people using healthcare services more intensively than models had assumed. ^[11]

Q3 beat and guidance raise

The narrative began to shift with third‑quarter 2025 results:

UnitedHealth beat earnings expectations and raised its 2025 EPS guidance to at least $16.25, up from a prior $16.00 target. ^[12]
Q3 revenue rose about 12% year over year, signaling that the core business engine — spanning UnitedHealthcare insurance and Optum’s services — continues to grow despite the year’s headwinds. ^[13]
The company reiterated that it is planning for “durable and accelerating growth in 2026”, though it also warned that it expects billions in charges as it restructures parts of its business to address cost and operational issues. ^[14]

This combination of short‑term pain and longer‑term optimism lies at the heart of most current analyst models.

Regulatory & Reputational Overhang: DOJ Probe and Board‑Level Changes

Despite the Q3 recovery, regulatory risk remains front and center for UNH:

DOJ investigation: The U.S. Department of Justice is probing certain Medicare billing practices linked to UnitedHealth, and investor commentary remains focused on the potential for fines and ongoing compliance costs. ^[15]
New “public responsibility” committee: In August, UnitedHealth’s board created a new committee dedicated to overseeing financial, regulatory and reputational risks, explicitly aimed at improving the company’s standing with lawmakers, regulators and the public. ^[16]
Scott Gottlieb joins the board: In November, UNH appointed Dr. Scott Gottlieb, former FDA Commissioner, as an independent director — a move widely read as an attempt to strengthen regulatory expertise and credibility at the board level. ^[17]
Governance & equity plan updates: The board also approved changes to its bylaws and filed a shelf registration tied to shares issued under its employee stock ownership plan (ESOP), while simultaneously reaffirming its dividend and upgraded 2025 earnings outlook. ^[18]

These steps underscore a multi‑front repair job: tightening controls, signaling seriousness to Washington, and convincing investors that the worst of the reputational damage is behind the company.

What Wall Street Is Saying: Ratings, Targets and Sentiment

Consensus remains bullish — but cautious

Across major data providers, UnitedHealth still carries a Buy‑leaning rating:

StockAnalysis reports that about 25 analysts rate UNH a “Buy”, with an average 12‑month price target around $407–$408, suggesting roughly 26% upside from current levels. ^[19]
MarketBeat’s aggregation of recent notes shows a “Moderate Buy” consensus and a mean target near $397, also pointing to low‑to‑mid‑20s percentage upside. ^[20]

Individual firms have also lifted targets as the year progressed:

Truist Financial recently raised its UNH target from $310 to $365 with a Buy rating.
Cantor Fitzgerald reiterated an “Overweight” stance and a $440 price target.
Barclays boosted its target from $352 to $386 and labeled the shares “Overweight.” ^[21]

Another recent breakdown pegs the average target at $386.72, implying roughly 17% upside from a current price around $330, and emphasizes that the stock sits near the lower end of its 52‑week range after a punishing year. ^[22]

Growing interest in “buy the dip” narratives

Recent commentary also highlights a shift in tone:

Several analysts and commentators now describe UNH as “undervalued” rather than just “cheap for a reason,” citing the company’s dominant market position, long record of earnings growth, and historically high valuation multiples. ^[23]
A detailed DCF‑based piece suggests the stock could be over 60% below intrinsic value, assuming management achieves its stated growth ambitions. ^[24]
Another Seeking Alpha analysis, “UnitedHealth: Buy Before The Buybacks Resume,” argues that the balance sheet and cash generation should allow the company to restart share repurchases, which were paused amid regulatory scrutiny and the cyber incident — a move that could further enhance shareholder returns if executed at depressed prices. ^[25]

All of this contributes to a contrarian bull case: a high‑quality franchise temporarily knocked off course, trading at valuations not seen in years.

Valuation: From Blue‑Chip Premium to “Crisis Discount”

Before its troubles, UnitedHealth often traded at a premium to the broader market thanks to its scale, diversification and consistent growth. After the last 12 months, that has changed:

StockAnalysis data show 2024 revenue of about $400 billion, up nearly 8% year over year, but earnings down over 35%, reflecting charges and higher medical costs. ^[26]
An AInvest piece ties the roughly 47% share‑price drop since November 2024 to three main factors:
1. Regulatory and political scrutiny of Medicare Advantage and other programs,
2. Operational setbacks in its Optum Health unit and broader care‑delivery businesses, and
3. Reputational damage from a major cyberattack, which spooked both regulators and customers. ^[27]

At today’s prices, several recent analyses argue that:

The stock trades at a discount to its long‑term average valuation multiples, particularly if you look out to 2026–2027 earnings rather than the depressed 2025 base. ^[28]
Simply Wall St’s DCF model suggests about 61.9% upside to fair value, even after factoring in ongoing regulatory risk and elevated investment needs. ^[29]

This is why more commentators now describe UNH as a “deep‑value” large cap, a phrase rarely associated with the stock in previous years. ^[30]

Growth Outlook: 2025 Stabilization, 2026 Recovery

Management’s guidance

UnitedHealth’s own guidance and recent commentary point to a two‑stage story:

2025 – Repair and reset
- Re‑established 2025 outlook calls for $445.5–$448.0 billion in revenue,
- net EPS of at least $14.65, and
- adjusted EPS of at least $16.00, subsequently pushed up to $16.25 after Q3. ^[31]
2026 – Return to growth
- Reuters reports that analysts now expect 2026 EPS of about $17.59, implying a return to earnings growth. ^[32]
- Another round of consensus forecasts points to 2026 revenue around $459–460 billion. ^[33]

Longer term, management has reiterated its ambition to grow earnings at an annualized rate of 13–16%, with a dividend yield around 2.7% helping to push potential total shareholder returns into the high teens if execution goes to plan. ^[34]

Portfolio and strategic shifts

The latest research emphasizes several strategic levers for that recovery:

Optum Health restructuring: UnitedHealth is trimming the number of locations where it offers clinical services through Optum Health, after signing broad insurance contracts that brought in costlier, higher‑utilization patients and pressured margins. ^[35]
Latin America exit: The planned sale of Banmedica and a broader pullback from Latin America are expected to simplify the portfolio, free up capital, and allow management to focus on core growth markets. ^[36]
Capital returns: Several commentators expect share buybacks to resume once regulatory clouds clear, amplifying EPS growth if executed at today’s subdued valuation. ^[37]

Income Angle: Dividends and Potential Buybacks

UnitedHealth remains a dividend payer even amid its reset:

The company has recently reaffirmed a quarterly dividend of $2.21 per share, with an upcoming payment scheduled for mid‑December 2025. ^[38]
At a share price a little above $320, that works out to a forward yield of roughly 2.7%, higher than the stock’s typical yield over the past decade. ^[39]

If buybacks do resume in 2026 as some analysts expect, UNH could once again combine:

Mid‑teens earnings growth (on management’s long‑term targets),
A 2–3% dividend yield, and
Share count reduction from repurchases,

which together could support high‑teens total returns — assuming regulatory issues do not materially impair the business model. ^[40]

Key Risks Investors Are Watching

Even the most bullish analyses emphasize that UnitedHealth is not a low‑risk stock right now. The main downside drivers mentioned in current coverage include:

Regulatory & legal risk
- The DOJ investigation into billing practices could lead to fines, mandated changes, or tighter oversight. ^[41]
- Lawmakers remain focused on Medicare Advantage profitability and prior‑authorization practices, and future reforms could pressure margins further.
Reputational damage & cyber risk
- The high‑profile cyberattack and subsequent fallout have damaged trust with patients, providers and regulators; a repeat incident would be devastating. ^[42]
Medical cost trends
- Persistent higher‑than‑expected utilization has already forced outlook cuts and guidance resets; if care trends stay elevated, profitability in both insurance and care delivery could lag expectations. ^[43]
Execution risk on restructuring
- Exiting certain markets, trimming clinic locations and reshaping Optum’s portfolio all carry operational risk; missteps could erode the very margins management is trying to rebuild. ^[44]
Macro and political backdrop
- As a dominant player in U.S. healthcare, UnitedHealth is sensitive to policy shifts, election cycles and changes in funding formulas for government programs.

For these reasons, some analysts maintain “Hold” or even “Sell” ratings, arguing that the risk‑reward is not yet compelling despite share‑price weakness. ^[45]

Bottom Line: Is UNH Stock a Buy After the 2025 Selloff?

As of December 2, 2025, UnitedHealth Group looks like a classic battleground stock:

The bear case points to:
- Ongoing regulatory and legal clouds,
- A still‑elevated medical cost environment,
- The possibility of further charges as the company restructures, and
- A stock that, while cheaper than before, still depends on flawless execution to meet ambitious 2026–2027 targets. ^[46]
The bull case emphasizes:
- UNH’s scale and diversification across insurance, pharmacy benefit management, and healthcare services,
- A credible path to earnings growth resuming in 2026,
- Management’s long‑term 13–16% EPS growth target,
- A 2.7% dividend yield and potential future buybacks, and
- Valuation work suggesting anything from 17% to 60% upside over a multi‑year horizon if the turnaround holds. ^[47]

For long‑term, risk‑tolerant investors, current research portrays UnitedHealth as a high‑quality but temporarily impaired franchise: the sort of stock that could reward patience if management delivers on its 2026 recovery plan — and punish it if regulators or costs derail that plan.

For short‑term traders or conservative income investors, the message from today’s coverage is more cautious: volatility is likely to remain elevated, and clarity on the DOJ probe and cost trends may be needed before the market is willing to consistently reward good quarters with higher multiples. ^[48]

This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Always do your own research or consult a licensed financial adviser before making investment decisions.