Home Depot, Inc. (NYSE: HD) heads into the first week of December trading in the mid‑$350s per share, still lagging the broader market after a tough earnings season but backed by fresh strategic news, a looming dividend deadline, and a wall of mixed analyst opinions. [1]
All data in this article is as of December 2, 2025 and may change as markets move.
Key Takeaways for Home Depot Stock Today
- Share price: HD is trading in the mid‑$350s, roughly 15–17% below where it was a year ago, underperforming the S&P 500 despite modest revenue growth. TS2 Tech+1
- Fresh news (Dec 2): Instacart and Home Depot Canada announced a nationwide same‑day delivery partnership across more than 175 stores, expanding HD’s omnichannel reach heading into the holidays. [2]
- Dividend clock: Home Depot’s next $2.30 quarterly dividend goes ex‑dividend on December 4, 2025 and will be paid on December 18, implying a forward yield around 2.5–2.6% at current prices. [3]
- Fundamentals: Q3 fiscal 2025 was a “mixed” quarter—three straight EPS misses, flat comparable sales, but revenue growth of 2.8% and a higher full‑year sales outlook of about 3%. [4]
- Forecasts: Wall Street consensus sits between “Moderate Buy” and “Strong Buy” with average 12‑month price targets clustered in the low‑to‑mid $400s—implying mid‑teens upside—while some quantitative models see HD as overvalued by 20%+. [5]
Home Depot Stock Price Snapshot on December 2, 2025
Intraday on Tuesday, Home Depot shares are changing hands in the mid‑$350s, with different real‑time feeds quoting prices around $352–$357 per share. [6]
Key valuation and trading metrics:
- Market cap: roughly $350–$356 billion [7]
- 52‑week range: about $326.31 (low) to $436.36 (high) [8]
- Trailing P/E: ~24x earnings, with a P/E/G ratio around 3.6, reflecting modest growth expectations at a premium multiple [9]
- Balance sheet snapshot:
- Quick ratio ≈ 0.34
- Current ratio ≈ 1.15
- Debt‑to‑equity ≈ 4.3 (heavily leveraged but typical for HD’s capital‑return model) [10]
Over the past year, HD shares are down around the mid‑teens percentage, while the S&P 500 is up in the mid‑teens—meaning Home Depot has underperformed the index by more than 20 percentage points despite positive revenue growth. TS2 Tech+2www.alphaspread.com+2
New Instacart Partnership: Same‑Day Delivery Boost for Home Depot Canada
The headline company‑specific news on December 2 is a new nationwide partnership between Instacart and The Home Depot Canada:
- Instacart and Home Depot Canada will offer same‑day delivery—often in as fast as an hour—from more than 175 Canadian Home Depot stores through the Instacart app. [11]
- Customers will see in‑store pricing on Instacart, an important detail for building trust in the value proposition. [12]
- Home Depot Canada becomes the first nationwide home improvement retailer available on Instacart in Canada, joining over 100 banners active on the platform. [13]
Why it matters for HD stock:
- The deal deepens Home Depot’s omnichannel and last‑mile capabilities—an area where big‑box peers like Lowe’s and Walmart have invested heavily.
- It directly targets holiday and project‑driven demand: the launch is timed for seasonal decorating, entertaining, and year‑end home projects, potentially pulling forward revenue in Q4. [14]
- While the immediate financial impact is likely modest relative to HD’s ~$160B+ annual sales base, it strengthens customer stickiness and digital engagement, both of which matter for long‑term comps.
Investors watching HD’s slower lumber‑and‑big‑ticket categories may see this as incremental help, not a silver bullet—but it does fit the company’s multi‑year strategy of investing in pro services, digital tools, and convenience.
Dividend Countdown: Ex‑Dividend December 4, Payout December 18
Income investors have a near‑term catalyst: Home Depot’s next quarterly dividend.
- Dividend per share: $2.30 quarterly (annualized $9.20) [15]
- Ex‑dividend date: December 4, 2025
- Record date: December 4, 2025 (close of business)
- Payment date: December 18, 2025 [16]
At a recent price around $357 per share, Nasdaq and MarketBeat estimate the forward dividend yield at roughly 2.5–2.6%, implying the stock might theoretically drop about 0.6% on the ex‑div date if all else is equal. [17]
This payout marks the 155th consecutive quarter of dividends from Home Depot—nearly 39 years of uninterrupted payments—which is a key part of the long‑term bull case for HD as a blue‑chip dividend growth name. [18]
Important note: Buying HD after the December 4 ex‑div date will not entitle investors to the December 18 payout.
Q3 2025: Mixed Results and a Tougher Earnings Outlook
Home Depot’s third‑quarter fiscal 2025 results, released on November 18, still dominate the fundamental narrative. [19]
Headline numbers (quarter ended November 2, 2025):
- Net sales: $41.4 billion, up 2.8% year‑on‑year, aided by ~$900 million in revenue from the acquisition of GMS Inc. [20]
- Comparable sales: +0.2% overall, +0.1% in the U.S., effectively flat in real terms. [21]
- GAAP net earnings: $3.6 billion, or $3.62 per diluted share, slightly below $3.67 a year earlier. [22]
- Adjusted EPS: $3.74, missing Wall Street estimates by about $0.09–$0.10—the third consecutive quarterly EPS miss. [23]
Management commentary and revised guidance:
CEO Ted Decker attributed the miss primarily to:
- Fewer severe storms than expected, which reduced repair‑and‑remodel demand in certain categories.
- Consumer uncertainty and housing market weakness, with U.S. home turnover at very low levels, pressuring discretionary home improvement spending. [24]
Updated fiscal 2025 guidance now calls for: [25]
- Total sales growth: ~3% (helped by the GMS acquisition).
- Comparable sales: expected to be slightly positive for the full year (down from a prior ~1% growth outlook).
- Adjusted EPS: management and outside estimates suggest a mid‑single‑digit decline (~5–6%) vs. last year, down from earlier expectations closer to flat.
For long‑term holders, the story is that Home Depot remains highly profitable but is dealing with:
- A sluggish housing market with very low turnover.
- Weaker DIY demand and cautious big‑ticket spending.
- A normalization from the pandemic‑era boom in home improvement.
Big Money Moves: Hedge Funds Increase HD Exposure
Two 13F‑driven headlines on December 2 highlight ongoing institutional interest in Home Depot despite the stock’s drawdown:
Riverview Capital Advisers LLC
- Riverview Capital boosted its HD position by 326.4% in Q2, to 16,378 shares, worth about $6.0 million at the time of filing.
- HD now represents roughly 1.7% of Riverview’s portfolio and is its 16th‑largest holding. [26]
Arrowstreet Capital Limited Partnership
- Arrowstreet Capital increased its stake in HD by 21.7%, to around 2.53 million shares valued at roughly $926.4 million, representing about 0.25% of Home Depot’s shares and roughly 0.7% of Arrowstreet’s portfolio. [27]
Across the shareholder base, roughly 71% of HD shares are held by institutions and hedge funds. [28]
That heavy institutional ownership cuts both ways:
- It can support the stock during weak retail sentiment, especially when large funds add on dips.
- It can also amplify volatility if institutions decide to rotate out of cyclicals or consumer‑sensitive names.
Analyst Ratings and Price Targets: A Wide, Conflicted Range
Fresh and recent research updates around December 2 show unusually wide disagreement about where Home Depot should trade.
Consensus snapshots
- MarketBeat:
- Consensus rating: “Moderate Buy”
- Coverage: 34 analysts – 22 Buy, 10 Hold, 2 Sell
- Average 12‑month price target: $403.93, implying ~14% upside from the mid‑$350s. [29]
- StockAnalysis.com:
- Consensus rating: “Strong Buy” from 23 analysts
- Average price target: $424.22
- Implied upside: ~20% over the next year. [30]
- TipRanks (article published today):
- Consensus: “Moderate Buy” based on 18 Buys, 5 Holds, 1 Sell over the past three months.
- Average target: $409, implying about 13% upside after a 16.4% share‑price loss over the last year. [31]
- GuruFocus:
- 34‑analyst average 1‑year target: $401.40, with a range of $300–$465, and estimated upside of ~11% from a recent price near $361.
- Brokerage recommendation score: 2.3 on a 1–5 scale, corresponding to an “Outperform” consensus. [32]
- AlphaSpread (Wall Street aggregation):
- Average Street price target: $436.99, implying around 23% upside from recent prices. [33]
Fresh rating moves
Recent target cuts underline how sentiment has cooled since the Q3 report:
- Stifel cut its HD price target from $370 to $350 while reiterating a Hold rating, citing underlying category weakness revealed in Q3 and updated guidance. [34]
- Other firms—including RBC, TD Cowen, Evercore ISI, UBS and Morgan Stanley—have trimmed their targets into the mid‑$370s to mid‑$440s range but mostly maintained Buy or Overweight stances. [35]
A new Seeking Alpha deep‑dive published today rates the stock “Hold” with a $378 price target, arguing that while rate cuts and a housing recovery could help, HD is likely to track the broader market rather than outperform it at current valuations (about 6% upside from recent levels). [36]
Bearish research: Zacks “Strong Sell” and structural demand questions
On the more cautious side:
- Zacks recently named Home Depot its “Bear of the Day”, highlighting three consecutive EPS misses and a cut to full‑year EPS guidance (to roughly the low‑$14 range, down about 6% year‑over‑year and below previous expectations near $15). [37]
- In a separate piece, Zacks discussed whether HD faces a “structural demand reset” after very soft Q3 comps, noting that management now expects only slightly positive comparable‑sales growth for fiscal 2025 versus a prior forecast of ~1%. [38]
Taken together, the Street’s view can be summarized like this:
- Most analysts still see double‑digit upside and recommend HD as a long‑term compounder.
- A small but vocal minority argues that slowed earnings growth, a weaker housing cycle, and repeated earnings misses justify either a Hold or outright Sell.
Valuation Models: Some Say “Overvalued”
While many brokers are comfortable with HD’s valuation, independent quant platforms paint a more conservative picture.
AlphaSpread, which blends discounted cash flow and relative valuation, estimates: [39]
- Intrinsic value (base case): $275.97 per share
- Current market price: about $354–$355
- Implied overvaluation: ~22%
Their model suggests HD is a high‑quality business—with an exceptional ROE around 160%, healthy margins, and strong returns on capital—but priced above what its cash flows justify under base‑case assumptions. [40]
For investors, the practical takeaway is that:
- If housing, pro demand and spending recover faster than expected, the Street’s bullish targets in the low‑$400s could prove conservative.
- If the earnings slowdown persists, quant valuations like AlphaSpread’s highlight the risk that multiple compression could offset modest EPS growth.
Protests, Brand Headlines, and a Viral Tiny House
Today’s coverage also revisits ongoing protests and brand‑perception issues around Home Depot.
A TipRanks feature published this morning notes: [41]
- Protests and calls for boycotts have continued at certain Home Depot locations through Black Friday weekend, including a heavily covered demonstration at a store in Torrance, California.
- Despite the activism, HD shares actually gained nearly 1.5% on Monday, suggesting that equity investors are, so far, more focused on fundamentals and valuation than on the protest headlines.
The same article highlights a quirky viral story in which creators built a tiny house inside a Home Depot aisle (using purchased materials), framing it as a missed but intriguing marketing opportunity for the brand. [42]
For stockholders, these episodes matter less for near‑term earnings and more for reputational risk and customer loyalty over the long run. There’s no evidence yet that protests are materially denting sales, but they add another layer of uncertainty around brand sentiment.
Balance Sheet, Profitability and Risk Profile
Fundamentally, Home Depot still looks like the same cash‑machine it has been for years, even if growth has cooled.
From MarketBeat, IR filings, and independent analysis: [43]
- Profitability
- Net margin around 8.9%;
- ROE well above 190%, boosted by leverage and aggressive buybacks;
- Gross margin around 33% and operating margin near 12–13%.
- Solvency & risk
This picture reinforces a simple narrative: HD is still a very profitable, mature compounder with an aggressive capital‑return strategy. The debate is less about survivability and more about what investors should pay for mid‑single‑digit growth in a tough housing cycle.
Key Themes to Watch Heading Into Home Depot’s December 9 Investor Day
Home Depot will host its 2025 Investor and Analyst Conference on December 9, which could be the next major catalyst for the stock. [46]
Between now and then, here’s what the market is likely to focus on:
- Housing and macro signals
- Any signs that home turnover, mortgage rates and renovation demand are stabilizing or improving.
- Commentary on how HD is navigating rate‑sensitive categories and big‑ticket purchases.
- Integration of GMS and pro‑market strategy
- Digital and omnichannel performance
- Early read on the Instacart Canada partnership and other last‑mile initiatives. [49]
- Growth in online order‑pickup, curbside, and delivery.
- Capital allocation
- Any commentary on future dividend growth beyond the current $2.30 per share. [50]
- Pace of share repurchases and leverage targets, given rates and macro uncertainty.
What Today’s News Means for Potential Investors
From an information‑only, non‑advisory perspective, here’s how the December 2, 2025 picture lines up:
Bullish arguments:
- Home Depot remains the dominant player in home improvement with scale advantages, strong margins, and a long history of returning cash to shareholders via dividends and buybacks. [51]
- The Instacart partnership, expanding pro‑focused tools, and the GMS acquisition all support a long‑term growth runway, especially once the housing market normalizes. [52]
- Most Wall Street analysts still expect mid‑teens percentage upside over 12 months, plus a 2.5%+ dividend yield. [53]
Bearish arguments:
- Three straight EPS misses, slower comps, and guidance cuts suggest that earnings momentum has stalled, at least near‑term. [54]
- Zacks and others warn that HD could be facing a structural demand reset if the housing slowdown and cautious consumer persist longer than expected. [55]
- Quant models like AlphaSpread flag HD as overvalued by ~20%+ on a base‑case DCF basis, implying limited margin of safety if growth disappoints. [56]
Bottom line (not investment advice):
- For investors who believe housing and renovation demand will reaccelerate over the next cycle, HD remains a high‑quality, cash‑generative franchise with a growing dividend and substantial institutional backing.
- For more valuation‑sensitive or risk‑averse investors, today’s mid‑$350s price—amid slowing earnings and macro headwinds—may feel rich relative to some intrinsic‑value estimates, especially with leverage elevated and growth modest.
Anyone considering trading or investing in Home Depot stock should do their own research, look at their time horizon and risk tolerance, and, where appropriate, consult a qualified financial professional. This article is for informational and news purposes only and is not personalized investment advice.
References
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