Alphabet (GOOGL) Stock on December 2, 2025: Gemini 3, Buffett’s Bet and New $375 Price Targets

Updated: December 2, 2025 – U.S. midday trading

Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOGL, GOOG) is trading around $315 today, near record highs, after a blistering AI‑driven run that has pushed its market value to roughly $3.8 trillion and cemented it among the three most valuable companies in the world. ^[1]

The stock is up about 70% year to date, powered by three big storylines:

• the launch of Gemini 3, Google’s most advanced AI model to date
• a surge in Google Cloud backed by a $155 billion backlog
• a wave of analyst upgrades lifting price targets as high as $380, plus a fresh Berkshire Hathaway stake that has become a talking point across Wall Street. ^[2]

At the same time, regulators on both sides of the Atlantic are still circling, and valuation multiples have climbed to levels where even bullish analysts are starting to talk about “premium pricing” and “overbought” conditions. ^[3]

Below is a deep dive into where Alphabet stock stands today and what the latest news, forecasts and analysis suggest about its path into 2026.

Alphabet stock today: price, market cap and recent performance

As of mid‑day U.S. trading on December 2, 2025, Alphabet’s Class A shares (GOOGL) trade around $315, with a 52‑week range of roughly $140.53 to $328.83. ^[4]

Multiple independent datasets put Alphabet’s market capitalization near $3.8–3.9 trillion, up more than 70% over the past 12 months. ^[5] That surge has lifted Alphabet firmly into the small club of $3 trillion‑plus AI giants alongside Nvidia, Apple and Microsoft. ^[6]

Valuation metrics have expanded accordingly:

• Trailing P/E: ~31x
• Forward P/E: high‑20s
• Price‑to‑sales: ~10x
• Price‑to‑book: just under 10x

These are all near the high end of Alphabet’s historical range and well above the average for the interactive media and online advertising sector. ^[7]

Analysts at Simply Wall St and others note that while the valuation is rich versus peers (many of which trade around 15–16x earnings), they see a case for a premium multiple given Alphabet’s dominant platforms and accelerating AI monetization. TechStock²

From AI laggard to leader: Gemini 3 and Google’s custom chips

A year ago, the consensus narrative was that Alphabet had missed the AI wave, ceding mindshare to OpenAI, Microsoft and upstarts like Anthropic and xAI. ^[8] That story has flipped dramatically in the last few weeks.

Gemini 3: Google’s new AI flagship

On November 18, 2025, Google formally introduced Gemini 3, calling it its “most intelligent AI model” yet, designed to improve reasoning and multimodal performance (text, images, code and more) and to be tightly integrated across Google products such as the Gemini app, AI Studio and Vertex AI. ^[9]

Coverage from 24/7 Wall St and other tech/market commentators highlights several key points: ^[10]

• Benchmark tests and early user feedback suggest Gemini 3 outperforms rival models in several reasoning and coding tasks.
• Tight integration into Search, YouTube, Chrome, Android and Workspace means Gemini 3 is a feature of everything, not a stand‑alone app — a powerful distribution advantage.
• The launch helped Alphabet leapfrog to roughly $3.9T in market value, briefly overtaking Microsoft and narrowing the perceived AI gap with Nvidia. ^[11]

A Morningstar “Markets Brief” this week framed the move as Alphabet “gaining ground on Nvidia in the AI spending war,” particularly as enterprises diversify their AI infrastructure beyond a single-chip vendor. ^[12]

TPUs vs Nvidia’s GPUs: the chip story

The second leg of the AI narrative is Google’s custom Tensor Processing Units (TPUs).

Recent reports indicate that Meta may adopt Google’s TPUs in its data centers, an explicit shot at Nvidia’s dominance in AI accelerators and a potential multibillion‑dollar revenue driver for Alphabet’s cloud and hardware lines. ^[13]

HSBC analyst Paul Rossington this morning raised his price target on Alphabet from $335 to $370, arguing that Gemini 3’s perceived edge over OpenAI’s GPT‑5.1, combined with growing TPU traction, meaningfully reduces long‑term search risk and opens a path for Google to supply up to 10% of Nvidia‑like AI infrastructure revenue by 2030. ^[14]

That kind of AI‑plus‑chips narrative is a big reason Alphabet’s stock has outperformed Nvidia in recent weeks. One November recap noted that GOOGL gained about 11% while NVDA fell a similar amount, as investors rotated into Alphabet following Gemini 3’s debut. ^[15]

Q3 2025 results: Cloud and YouTube lead the charge

Underpinning the rally is a very strong fundamental quarter.

For Q3 2025, Alphabet reported: ^[16]

• Revenue: $102.3 billion, up 16% year over year (from $88.3B).
• Net income: $35.0 billion, up ~33% (from $26.3B).
• Diluted EPS: $2.87, up from $2.12 a year earlier.
• Operating income: $31.2 billion (or $34.7B excluding a one‑time EU fine), implying 22% year‑over‑year growthon a non‑GAAP basis.

By segment:

• Google Services (Search, YouTube, Android, Chrome, Maps, etc.) revenue rose from $76.5B to $87.1B.
• Google Cloud revenue jumped from $11.35B to $15.16B, with operating income rising from $1.95B to $3.59B.
• Other Bets (Waymo, Verily and other moonshots) remained a small drag, with modest revenue and operating losses. ^[17]

The real headline for many analysts is Cloud:

• Google Cloud ended the quarter with a $155 billion backlog, up 46% sequentially, driven by enterprise demand for AI‑enabled infrastructure and tools. ^[18]
• Guggenheim’s Michael Morris called the backlog growth “exceptional” and argued that Wall Street is underestimating Cloud’s run‑rate revenue potential by around $40 billion based on current trends. ^[19]

YouTube remains a key growth engine as well: 24/7 Wall St notes that YouTube generated about $10.3 billion in Q3 revenue, putting it not far behind Cloud and reinforcing Alphabet’s dominance in streaming. ^[20]

Wall Street targets: who’s raising Alphabet’s price?

The last 48 hours have brought a fresh wave of bullish analyst calls:

• Guggenheim: Michael Morris raised his GOOGL price target from $330 to $375 and reiterated a Buy, citing AI‑driven cloud upside, YouTube monetization and Gemini 3 adoption. ^[21]
• Arete: Lifted its target from $300 to $380 while keeping a Buy rating, describing Alphabet as a top AI platform beneficiary and highlighting its diversified revenue streams. ^[22]
• HSBC: Boosted its target from $335 to $370, arguing Gemini 3 is “superior to ChatGPT 5.1” in key use cases and that TPUs could become a meaningful profit center. ^[23]

Across the Street, consensus remains strongly positive but more measured:

• StockAnalysis: 42 analysts, “Buy” consensus, average target $299.36, with a high of $375 and a low of $190. ^[24]
• TipRanks / CoinCentral summarizing TipRanks data: “Strong Buy” based on 31 Buys and 7 Holds, with an average target near $314.7 — effectively in line with today’s price. ^[25]
• MarketBeat: Roughly 4 Strong Buys, 41 Buys, 6 Holds, “Moderate Buy” consensus and an average target around $309–311. ^[26]

Taken together, the average 12‑month price target cluster sits in the high‑$200s to low‑$300s, with a small but growing group of AI‑maximalist analysts pushing $370–$380 as the bull case.

Revenue and earnings forecasts

According to a synthesis of Wall Street estimates aggregated by StockAnalysis: ^[27]

• 2025 revenue is projected around $410 billion, up ~17% from 2024.
• 2026 revenue is projected around $462 billion, adding another 13%.
• 2025 EPS is forecast near $10.68, up roughly 33% from 2024.
• 2026 EPS is expected around $11.27, a more modest 5–6% growth after this year’s big jump.

That profile — strong double‑digit top‑line growth in 2025, slowing but still healthy in 2026, with margins already high — is a big part of why many analysts see Alphabet as a core long‑term AI and cloud holding, even if near‑term upside from here may be more limited than in 2023–2025.

Shareholder returns: buybacks, a new dividend – and Buffett

One under‑appreciated driver of Alphabet’s performance is just how much cash it returns to shareholders.

From its latest filings and cash‑flow statement: ^[28]

• In the first nine months of 2025, Alphabet spent about $40.2 billion on share repurchases.
• It also paid about $7.5 billion in dividends, following the introduction of its first regular dividend earlier this year.

A recent Forbes piece (via StockAnalysis’s news feed) estimates that over the last decade, Alphabet has returned roughly $350+ billion to investors through a combination of buybacks and dividends — a staggering amount of cash for a company still posting double‑digit growth. ^[29]

MarketBeat’s latest institutional‑ownership update highlights that: ^[30]

• Vanguard, Geode, UBS, Invesco and Deutsche Bank have all increased their GOOGL stakes recently.
• Institutional investors now own roughly 40% of Alphabet’s shares.
• Some investors, like Bank Julius Baer, have trimmed positions after large gains, while others such as Westerkirk Capital have initiated new stakes.

On top of that, 24/7 Wall St reports that Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway has built a roughly $2.4 billion Alphabet stake, giving Alphabet a symbolic “Buffett seal of approval” that resonates strongly with long‑term value‑oriented investors. ^[31]

Alphabet’s own capital allocation remains aggressive:

• Q3 cash flow from operations: $48.4 billion
• Year‑to‑date free cash flow after capex: still huge despite $63.6 billion of property and equipment spend, largely for data centers and AI infrastructure. ^[32]

Regulation and antitrust: the risks that haven’t gone away

Even as the stock rallies, Alphabet’s regulatory overhang is not gone — it has evolved.

U.S. antitrust ruling: relief, but with strings attached

In September 2025, a U.S. federal judge delivered a “mixed verdict” in the long‑running search monopoly case: ^[33]

• The ruling stopped short of breaking up Google or forcing divestitures of Chrome or Android.
• Instead, it imposed behavioural remedies:
  • A requirement to share certain search data with qualified rivals.
  • Restrictions on exclusive default search deals that keep competitors off smartphones and browsers.
• Investors cheered the absence of structural breakup; Alphabet’s stock jumped about 8% on the news.

However, critics — including antitrust scholars quoted by The Guardian — called the penalties a “slap on the wrist,” arguing they may not fully address Google’s entrenched power in online search. ^[34]

For shareholders, the takeaway is nuanced: the worst‑case scenario (forced breakup) is off the table for now, but Alphabet will operate under closer scrutiny and new constraints that could influence margins and competitive dynamics over time.

Europe’s Digital Markets Act and the Google News probe

On November 13, 2025, the European Commission opened a formal antitrust probe into Google’s news rankingsunder the Digital Markets Act (DMA). ^[35]

Key points:

• Regulators are investigating whether Google’s spam policies or algorithm changes have unfairly demoted news publishers, reducing their traffic and advertising revenue.
• The DMA allows for fines of up to 10% of a company’s global annual turnover for serious violations — a particularly meaningful number for a company with $400B+ in revenue.
• The probe also tests how far Europe will go in enforcing “gatekeeper” obligations on large platforms — a template that could be applied to other parts of Alphabet’s business.

At the same time, Google recently withdrew its own EU cloud antitrust complaint against Microsoft, signaling a more cautious approach while the Commission investigates the entire cloud sector, including Amazon and Microsoft. ^[36]

Regulation is unlikely to derail Alphabet’s business overnight, but it remains a persistent, hard‑to‑quantify risk that investors need to price into long‑term scenarios.

Valuation check: is Alphabet stock still a buy after the run?

At roughly 31x trailing earnings and about 10x sales, Alphabet now trades at a premium to most of the communication services and ad‑tech sector. ^[37]

Some key valuation and risk considerations from recent research notes:

• Premium justified?
  • Bulls argue the multiple is warranted by Alphabet’s AI leadership, Cloud acceleration, and the fact that search and YouTube generate high‑margin cash flows that fund AI, TPUs, Waymo and more. ^[38]
• Near‑term stretched?
  • GuruFocus and technical analyses point out that Alphabet is trading well above its 50‑ and 200‑day moving averages, with an RSI close to overbought territory, suggesting the stock may be due for consolidation even if the long‑term thesis is intact. ^[39]
• “Fair value” on a 12‑month view
  • Several consensus compilers (StockAnalysis, MarketBeat, TipRanks, Benzinga) show average price targets clustered not far from today’s price — roughly $295–$315 — implying limited upside over the next year unless AI‑driven growth substantially beats expectations. ^[40]

In other words:

Long‑term story: very strong.
Short‑term reward‑to‑risk: less obviously compelling than a year ago.

Investors who buy here are, in effect, betting that Alphabet:

1. Sustains double‑digit revenue growth into the second half of the decade, and
2. Successfully monetizes AI across Search, YouTube, Cloud and productivity tools enough to justify a persistently high multiple.

Key catalysts to watch into 2026

For traders and long‑term investors alike, here are the big catalysts that could move Alphabet stock from today’s levels:

1. AI monetization in Search and YouTube
   • Small changes in how Gemini 3 augments search results or video recommendations can move billions in ad revenue. Watch for commentary on click‑through rates, ad load and advertiser demand in upcoming quarters. ^[41]
2. Google Cloud backlog conversion
   • Street models currently bake in strong—but not outrageous—Cloud growth. If the $155B backlog converts faster than expected, Guggenheim’s thesis of $40B+ underappreciated revenue may prove conservative. ^[42]
3. Meta and other TPU customers
   • Confirmed large‑scale adoption of Google TPUs by Meta or other hyperscalers would reinforce the chip narrative and potentially open a new, high‑margin revenue stream. ^[43]
4. Waymo’s path to profitability
   • Waymo remains a loss‑making “Other Bet,” but expanded robotaxi deployments or clearer profitability milestones could turn it from a drag into a new profit center later in the decade. ^[44]
5. Regulatory developments
   • Any escalation (or resolution) of the EU DMA probe into news rankings or additional U.S. actions around AI transparency and data use could shift the risk premium embedded in Alphabet’s valuation. ^[45]
6. Capital return policy
   • Alphabet’s combination of a small but growing dividend and large buyback program gives it flexibility. Upsizing buybacks or raising the dividend could support the share price during periods of multiple compression. ^[46]

Should you buy Alphabet stock now?

From today’s vantage point — December 2, 2025 — Alphabet is:

• A leader in AI, not a laggard, thanks to Gemini 3 and custom TPUs. ^[47]
• Fundamentally very strong, with double‑digit revenue growth, rising profitability and enormous cash generation. ^[48]
• Fully valued to moderately expensive on most traditional metrics, with consensus 12‑month price targets only modestly above (and sometimes below) the current share price. ^[49]
• Facing ongoing regulatory and competitive risks, especially from governments, Microsoft/OpenAI, Nvidia and other AI players. ^[50]

For long‑term investors who can tolerate volatility and believe AI will remain a multi‑trillion‑dollar theme, Alphabet still looks like a core, high‑quality compounder with multiple ways to win.

For short‑term traders or valuation‑sensitive buyers, the case is more nuanced: after such a historic run and with technical indicators flashing “extended,” it may make sense to wait for pullbacks, consolidations or clearer signs that AI monetization is exceeding already‑rosy expectations. TechStock²+1

Final note

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Alphabet stock — like any equity investment — carries risk, including the risk of loss. Before buying or selling GOOGL or GOOG, consider your own objectives, time horizon and risk tolerance, and consult a qualified financial professional if you’re unsure what’s appropriate for your situation.

References

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