Qualcomm Stock (QCOM) Today: AI Pivot, Apple Risk and 2025–2026 Forecast After Fresh Institutional Moves

Published: December 2, 2025 – Data and prices as of today’s close or latest available figures.

Qualcomm stock today: price, valuation and sector backdrop

Qualcomm Incorporated (NASDAQ: QCOM) is trading around $168 per share on December 2, 2025, after a choppy two‑week stretch that left the stock roughly 3–4% below its mid‑November levels. Intraday on Monday the shares moved between about $165.50 and $169.03, with volume around 6–7 million shares, roughly in line with recent averages. ^[1]

At this price, Qualcomm’s valuation looks split between an expensive past and a cheaper future:

• Trailing P/E (last 12 months): about 33–34x earnings
• Forward P/E (next 12 months): roughly 13.8–14x based on multiple data providers ^[2]
• Market cap: just under $180 billion ^[3]

For context, the broader U.S. semiconductor industry trades at roughly 35–38x trailing earnings as of early December 2025. ^[4] That leaves Qualcomm at a modest discount to chip peers on a forward basis, even as the entire sector benefits from surging demand for AI and advanced logic chips globally. The World Semiconductor Trade Statistics group now expects the global chip market to grow more than 25% across 2025–2026, potentially approaching the $1 trillion mark. ^[5]

Fresh headlines on December 2, 2025: technical signals, dividends and big money moves

1. Short‑term technical outlook: “between a rock and a hard place”

Technical analysts remain cautiously bullish on Qualcomm in the very short term:

• Economies.com notes that QCOM has been capped recently by its 50‑day simple moving average, but still trades within a rising short‑term trend channel. As long as the stock holds above support near $159.10, their intraday outlook stays bullish with upside toward roughly $177 in the coming sessions. ^[6]
• StockInvest.us, another technical service, upgraded QCOM from “Sell candidate” to “Hold/Accumulate” after Monday’s session. They see the stock “in the middle of a wide and weak rising trend” and project about 5.3% upside over the next three months, with a 90% probability of trading between ~$169 and $201 by late Q1 2026. ^[7]
• Intellectia.ai, using an AI‑driven model, goes further and labels QCOM a “Strong Buy candidate” based on four bullish and two bearish technical signals. Their algorithm projects:
  • 1‑day price around $166.61
  • 1‑week around $168.98
  • 1‑month around $168.01
  • 2026 average near $186.06 and a 2030 target around $306.96 ^[8]

In other words: near‑term technicals are mixed but generally constructive, with most models pointing to gradual upside rather than a dramatic breakout—unless a new catalyst appears.

2. Dividend watch: ex‑dividend in two days

Income investors have a very near‑term catalyst: Qualcomm goes ex‑dividend on December 4, 2025.

• The next quarterly dividend is $0.89 per share, payable December 18, 2025.
• Over the past year the company paid $3.56 per share, implying a trailing yield of about 2.1% at the current price. ^[9]
• Simply Wall St calculates a payout ratio of roughly 69% of earnings but only about 30% of free cash flow, concluding that the dividend is covered and broadly sustainable, though not ultra‑conservative. ^[10]
• Over the last decade, Qualcomm has increased its dividend by roughly 7–8% annually, according to the same analysis. ^[11]

Simply Wall St’s takeaway is lukewarm: Qualcomm looks solid as a reliable dividend payer, but they “wouldn’t race out and buy” the stock solely for income at today’s valuation. ^[12]

3. Institutional flows: funds reshuffle QCOM exposure

December 2 also brought several filings showing how professional investors are positioning:

• Westerkirk Capital Inc. disclosed a new stake of 28,500 QCOM shares in Q2, worth about $4.54 million at the time of purchase. ^[13]
• The same MarketBeat report notes that institutional investors and hedge funds now own about 74.35% of Qualcomm’s float. ^[14]
• Another filing out today shows Fisher Asset Management trimmed its Qualcomm stake by 12.4% in Q2, selling around 180,000 shares but still holding 1.27 million shares worth roughly $203 million, also consistent with high institutional ownership. ^[15]

In London, multiple Form 8.3 disclosures under the UK Takeover Code reference Qualcomm because of its pending acquisition of Alphawave Semi:

• Geode Capital Management reported holding 25.7 million QCOM shares, or about 2.4% of the company, with an additional small purchase of 2,905 shares at $168.04 on December 1. ^[16]
• Mirabella Financial Services filed its own Form 8.3, reporting QCOM exposure via equity CFDs and additional small trades near $168 on December 1. ^[17]

The net picture: institutional interest is deep and active, with some big funds adding and others trimming, but no sign of a mass exodus.

4. Sentiment check: Zacks and media buzz

Zacks notes that Qualcomm has become one of the most searched‑for stocks on its platform and currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), indicating expectations of performance roughly in line with the market over the near term. They assign Qualcomm a Value Score of “C”, suggesting that, on their metrics, the stock sits close to fair value versus peers rather than being clearly cheap or expensive. ^[18]

Earnings recap: Q4 FY 2025 beat, but a GAAP loss and a tax hit

Qualcomm’s most recent results—Q4 fiscal 2025, reported on November 5—set the stage for today’s narrative:

• Revenue: about $11.27 billion, up roughly 10% year over year and ahead of analyst estimates around $10.7 billion.
• Non‑GAAP EPS: $3.00, beating consensus of $2.87. ^[19]
• Guidance for Q1 FY 2026: non‑GAAP EPS of $3.30–$3.50 and revenue guidance above Wall Street expectations, implying continued momentum into 2026. ^[20]

Despite strong operating results, Qualcomm reported a GAAP net loss in Q4 due largely to a non‑cash tax charge of about $5.7 billion, tied to new U.S. tax legislation often referred to as Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill” tax act. Analysts point out that this charge is accounting‑driven, front‑loading the impact of future tax changes rather than reflecting a collapse in the underlying business. TechStock²+1

Segment‑wise, coverage of the results highlighted:

• Ongoing recovery in premium Android smartphones, which helped non‑Apple chip revenue grow roughly 18% year over year. ^[21]
• Persistent strength in automotive and IoT chips, though these segments are still much smaller than smartphones. TechStock²+1

The overall takeaway from Q4: core operations are healthy, with growth returning, but headline GAAP numbers were temporarily distorted by taxes.

Qualcomm’s AI pivot: beyond smartphones

A big reason Qualcomm stock is back in the conversation for 2025–2026 is its rapidly evolving AI story.

1. AI data center chips and the Alphawave deal

In June 2025, Qualcomm agreed to acquire UK‑based Alphawave Semi for roughly $2.4 billion in cash. ^[22]

• Alphawave specializes in high‑speed wired connectivity IP, custom silicon and chiplets—critical plumbing for AI data centers.
• Qualcomm plans to combine this with its Oryon CPU and Hexagon NPU technologies as it pushes deeper into AI inference in data centers. ^[23]
• The deal is expected to close in Q1 2026, pending regulatory and shareholder approvals. ^[24]

Analysts at Futurum and others argue that Alphawave gives Qualcomm essential interconnect IP needed to compete in lower‑power AI data‑center workloads and at the network edge, positioning the company as a “value” alternative to Nvidia and AMD in parts of the AI stack. ^[25]

2. Arduino and on‑device AI for 33 million makers

In October, Qualcomm also announced the acquisition of Arduino, the iconic open‑source maker platform, with a community reported around 33 million users. ^[26]

• The flagship Arduino Uno Q board uses Qualcomm’s new Dragonwing QRB2210 processor, capable of running Linux Debian and lightweight AI models.
• The board is priced around $44 and targets real‑time vision and sound AI projects at the edge. ^[27]

This move extends Qualcomm’s reach into the developer and hobbyist ecosystem, effectively seeding demand for its chips in millions of small projects that could eventually scale into commercial IoT and industrial designs.

3. Snapdragon 8 Elite/Gen 5 and Windows on Snapdragon PCs

On the mobile side, Qualcomm recently unveiled Snapdragon 8 Elite Gen 5 and Snapdragon 8 Gen 5 as its latest flagship smartphone SoCs, marketed as the “world’s fastest mobile” platforms with advanced on‑device generative AI capabilities. ^[28]

At the PC level, Microsoft and Qualcomm continue to push Windows on Snapdragon laptops and developer tools, aiming to bring ARM‑based, always‑connected, AI‑accelerated PCs into the mainstream. ^[29]

These moves collectively support the thesis that “Qualcomm is becoming an AI company”—a phrase echoed by recent commentary from Barchart and 24/7 Wall St, which see QCOM as a potential undervalued AI growth stock relative to Nvidia and other high‑fliers. ^[30]

The Apple modem overhang and other key risks

1. Apple’s modem exit and Samsung mix shifts

A major long‑term risk for Qualcomm remains its shrinking modem business with Apple:

• Apple has begun rolling out its in‑house C1‑series 5G modems in devices like the iPhone 16e, iPhone Air and the latest iPad Pro, reducing reliance on Qualcomm’s Snapdragon modems. ^[31]
• Qualcomm has extended its modem supply agreement with Apple through 2026, but most analysts expect Apple to fully transition away over time, potentially removing several billion dollars in annual chip revenue by the late 2020s. ^[32]

At the same time, Qualcomm’s relationship with Samsung is evolving:

• CEO Cristiano Amon recently said Qualcomm now supplies modems to roughly 75% of Samsung’s Galaxy smartphones, up from about half a few years ago, including exclusive Snapdragon modems in some Galaxy S25 models. ^[33]
• However, Reuters notes that Qualcomm’s future revenue from Samsung will be smaller than earlier expectations, contributing to share‑price pressure despite otherwise solid forecasts. ^[34]

The bullish counter‑argument is that Android premium devices, automotive chips, IoT and AI data center workloads can more than offset the Apple decline over time—if Qualcomm executes.

2. Regulatory and legal clouds: UK class action and China antitrust

Regulatory risk is another key storyline for 2025–2026:

• In the UK, a £480 million class action brought on behalf of roughly 29 million Apple and Samsung smartphone users alleges that Qualcomm abused its market power to impose “supracompetitive” royalties, inflating handset prices. The trial kicked off in October, and while the claim is manageable relative to Qualcomm’s market cap, an adverse ruling could set an unwelcome precedent. ^[35]
• In China, the State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR) has opened an antitrust investigation into Qualcomm’s purchase of Israeli automotive‑chip maker Autotalks, which the company completed in June 2025 without first notifying Chinese regulators. Penalties for unapproved deals can reach up to 10% of annual sales, and Qualcomm’s China revenue in 2024 was around $17.8 billion, implying a theoretical maximum fine approaching $1.8 billion—though actual fines often come in lower. ^[36]

These issues likely won’t derail the business, but they add headline risk and could affect sentiment or cash outflows in the coming years.

3. Geopolitics and tariffs

Qualcomm is also caught in the cross‑currents of U.S.–China trade tensions:

• A Reuters piece earlier this year highlighted how new tariff threats from the Trump administration on semiconductors and China’s regulatory scrutiny have weighed on Qualcomm’s share price, even as AI demand rises. ^[37]

For investors, that means Qualcomm’s story is not just about technology—but also about policy risk in two of its most important markets.

Wall Street and AI‑driven forecasts: what do models say?

1. Street consensus and price targets

According to MarketBeat and Yahoo Finance:

• Qualcomm currently carries a “Moderate Buy” consensus rating. ^[38]
• The average 12‑month price target is around $190–192, implying roughly 13–15% upside from the current price. ^[39]
• Recent target revisions include:
  • Bank of America: raised target to $215, rating “Buy”
  • Mizuho and Piper Sandler: targets around $200, with “Outperform/Overweight” calls
  • Wells Fargo: more cautious, raising its target to $165 but keeping an “Underweight” rating ^[40]

On the fundamentals side, analysts tracked by Yahoo expect:

• FY 2026 EPS around $12.1
• FY 2027 EPS around $12.4
  across roughly 25–30 covering analysts. ^[41]

Given a forward P/E of about 14x versus mid‑20s to 50x for AI leaders like Nvidia, some strategists argue Qualcomm represents a value way to play AI, albeit with less direct exposure to high‑end training GPUs. ^[42]

2. Quant and technical models

We’ve already touched on three widely followed models:

• Intellectia.ai: “Strong Buy” with +10.7% upside to 2026 and ~+83% potential by 2030 in its long‑term scenario. ^[43]
• StockInvest.us: “Hold/Accumulate” expecting around 5% upside over the next three months within a rising trend. ^[44]
• Economies.com: short‑term bullish as long as QCOM trades above roughly $159, with potential upside to the mid‑$170s. ^[45]

Importantly, these are model‑driven estimates, not guarantees. They assume that current trends in volumes, volatility and momentum persist—something markets are rarely kind enough to do indefinitely.

Is Qualcomm stock cheap or fairly valued?

Putting the pieces together:

• Valuation
  • Trailing P/E ~34x vs U.S. semiconductor average ~35–38x → roughly in line on past earnings. ^[46]
  • Forward P/E ~14x, notably below both sector averages and AI leaders like Nvidia and some specialty chipmakers, which often trade on mid‑20s to high‑30s forward multiples. ^[47]
• Balance sheet and cash generation
  • Healthy liquidity, with quick and current ratios above 2x, and moderate leverage (debt‑to‑equity around 0.5). ^[48]
  • Strong cash generation supports both R&D and dividends, with the dividend consuming only about 30% of free cash flow. ^[49]
• Growth drivers
  • AI data centers (Alphawave), on‑device AI (Snapdragon 8 Elite / Gen 5), Arduino and Windows on Snapdragon PCs provide multiple optionality layers in AI and edge computing. ^[50]
• Key headwinds
  • Gradual loss of Apple modem revenue, possible Samsung mix risk, and ongoing regulatory investigations (UK class action; China Autotalks probe). ^[51]

On most traditional metrics, Qualcomm doesn’t look screamingly cheap—but it does appear reasonably valued for a blue‑chip chipmaker with a solid dividend and a credible AI expansion plan.

What this means for different types of investors

Not financial advice. Always do your own research or speak with a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.

1. Long‑term growth / AI investors

If you’re hunting for AI exposure but wary of the very high multiples on names like Nvidia:

• Qualcomm offers a lower‑multiple, diversified AI play, with exposure across handsets, PCs, automotive, IoT, and now data centers.
• The Alphawave and Arduino deals, plus on‑device AI leadership, could pay off materially over 3–5 years if Qualcomm captures a meaningful share of inference workloads and edge AI deployments. ^[52]

The risk is that Qualcomm ends up as a “middle‑of‑the‑pack” AI player—important, but not a dominant profit engine relative to giants like Nvidia, AMD and TSMC.

2. Dividend and income investors

• A ~2.1% yield, 10‑year dividend growth around 7–8%, and a history of consistent payouts make QCOM attractive as a tech‑dividend hybrid. ^[53]
• The upcoming December 4 ex‑dividend date is a short‑term timing factor, but the more important question is whether Qualcomm can sustain mid‑single‑digit dividend growth while funding AI expansion and weathering regulatory risks.

3. Short‑term traders

• Technically, QCOM is range‑bound but upward‑tilted, with key support near $159–160 and resistance around $171–177 in the immediate term. ^[54]
• Increased volume on recent down days is a mild caution flag, but multiple models still point to slightly bullish risk‑reward over weeks to a few months—especially if any AI or M&A catalyst hits.

Key upcoming catalysts include:

• Ex‑dividend date: December 4, 2025
• Next earnings: currently expected around February 4, 2026 ^[55]
• Progress updates on the Alphawave acquisition, Autotalks investigation, and UK class action

Bottom line

As of December 2, 2025, Qualcomm stock sits at an interesting crossroads:

• The legacy smartphone modem story is slowly fading, especially with Apple’s in‑house modem rollout.
• At the same time, Qualcomm is leveraging its low‑power, connectivity and CPU/NPU expertise to make a serious bid for AI data centers, edge computing and on‑device generative AI—backed by sizable deals like Alphawave and Arduino.
• Valuation sits at about market multiple on trailing earnings, but at a discount on forward estimates versus the broader semiconductor and AI chip universe.

For investors willing to live with policy risk (China, tariffs), legal overhangs (UK class action) and the uncertainty of a major business transition, Qualcomm looks like a credible, relatively moderately valued way to gain diversified AI and connectivity exposure—with the sweetener of a growing dividend.

Again: none of this is a recommendation to buy or sell QCOM—just a synthesis of today’s news, numbers and narratives to help inform your own view.

References

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