Updated December 2, 2025
As December trading gets underway, McDonald’s Corporation (NYSE: MCD) remains one of the market’s core defensive, dividend-paying blue chips — but not a screaming bargain. Shares recently closed at $300.72, down about 0.9% on the day, leaving the company with a market value a little above $210–220 billion. [1]
At this level, investors are weighing a fresh dividend increase, holiday promotions such as the new “Grinch Meal,” steady (but not explosive) earnings growth and expanding AI investments against headwinds from squeezed low‑income consumers and a valuation many analysts describe as “full.” [2]
Key takeaways for McDonald’s stock today
- Price & performance: MCD trades around $301, roughly the middle of its 52‑week range between $276.53 and $326.32, and is up mid‑single digits year‑to‑date, lagging the broader U.S. market. [3]
- Fresh research (Dec. 2, 2025): New analysis from Simply Wall St estimates fair value around $262, implying the stock is about 16% above its DCF‑based intrinsic value. [4]
- Dividend story: The board has raised the quarterly dividend 5% to $1.86 per share (annual $7.44, yield around 2.4–2.5%), extending a multi‑decade streak of increases. [5]
- Analyst consensus: Depending on the data source, 23–40 Wall Street analysts cover MCD and generally rate it “Buy” to “Overweight,” with average 12‑month price targets in roughly the $325–$335 range and a high around $375. [6]
- Flows & sentiment: On December 2, MarketBeat reported Arrowstreet Capital lifting its MCD stake by 26.8% to about 980,447 shares, while Solidarity Wealth LLC trimmed its position by 19.6%; institutions in total hold around 70% of the float. [7]
- Insider activity: Executive VP Manuel Steijaert exercised options and sold 6,567 shares on December 1 for roughly $2.0 million, and still holds about 4,606 shares plus over 10,000 options. [8]
McDonald’s stock price and performance as of December 2, 2025
McDonald’s shares finished the regular session at $300.72, down $2.85 on the day (around ‑0.9%). [9]
Over the past 12 months:
- The stock has traded between about $276.53 and $326.32, with an average price near $303. [10]
- Total return (including dividends) has been in the mid‑single digits, with McDonald’s up roughly 3–6% year‑to‑date versus a low‑teens gain for the S&P 500 in 2025. [11]
MarketBeat’s December 2 institutional-flow article pegs MCD’s price/earnings ratio in the mid‑20s, with a beta of about 0.5, confirming McDonald’s as a relatively low‑volatility, defensive name. [12]
Fresh December 2 headlines around McDonald’s stock
1. Big money moves: Arrowstreet adds, Solidarity trims
Two new 13F‑related pieces on December 2 show how institutional investors are treating McDonald’s heading into year‑end:
- Arrowstreet Capital Limited Partnership increased its MCD stake by 26.8% in Q2, now holding 980,447 shares worth roughly $286.46 million, about 0.14% of the company. [13]
- Solidarity Wealth LLC reduced its position by 19.6%, selling 7,421 shares and ending the quarter with 30,399 shares valued around $8.88 million, roughly 2.1% of its portfolio. [14]
Both articles note that about 70% of McDonald’s shares are in institutional hands, reinforcing the idea that future price swings can be heavily driven by large asset managers’ decisions. [15]
2. Insider selling: EVP Manuel Steijaert’s $2 million sale
Regulatory filings highlighted today show that Manuel JM Steijaert, Executive Vice President and President of International Operated Markets, exercised stock options and sold 6,567 shares of McDonald’s on December 1, 2025, at a weighted average price around $305.50, for total proceeds just over $2.0 million. [16]
After this transaction, Steijaert still directly holds about 4,606 shares and roughly 10,120 stock options, so this appears more like portfolio diversification or profit‑taking than an outright exit. [17]
From a sentiment standpoint, recent articles also note CFO Ian Borden and other insiders selling into strength, with insiders collectively disposing of over 30,000 shares in the past three months — modest in the context of McDonald’s multibillion‑dollar market cap but worth watching if the pace accelerates. [18]
3. Valuation check: Simply Wall St sees limited margin of safety
A new December 2 valuation piece from Simply Wall St asks bluntly whether McDonald’s is “still a good value” or priced for perfection. [19] Key points:
- Their Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model estimates fair value at about $261.63 per share, which implies MCD is trading around 16% above intrinsic value on that metric. [20]
- On trailing earnings, they calculate a P/E of roughly 25.7x, higher than the broader hospitality industry (around 21x) but below some fast‑growing peers. [21]
- Using their proprietary “Fair Ratio” framework, they argue McDonald’s valuation is “about right” from an earnings‑power perspective, even if the DCF suggests the shares aren’t cheap. [22]
In short, Simply Wall St leans toward “quality at a fair price” rather than deep value — a view echoed by several other recent research notes. [23]
4. Holiday promotions: The Grinch Meal arrives
On the consumer side, McDonald’s is leaning into the festive season:
- A limited‑time “Grinch Meal” launched on December 2, created in partnership with Dr. Seuss Enterprises. The promotion features Dill Pickle McShaker Fries with a green seasoning, a choice of Big Mac or 10‑piece McNuggets, a medium drink and collectible holiday socks, available via in‑store, take‑out and the app while supplies last. [24]
While a single meal deal won’t move the earnings needle by itself, holiday tie‑ins like this play into McDonald’s long history of using limited‑time offers (LTOs) to stir social‑media buzz, support traffic and showcase app‑only deals that deepen digital loyalty. TS2 Tech+1
5. Restaurant‑sector context: MCD still on “stocks to watch” lists
McDonald’s also features on MarketBeat’s “Best Restaurant Stocks Worth Watching – December 1” list alongside Booking, Chipotle, Yum! Brands and Cava, underscoring that, even with a full valuation, it remains a go‑to name for investors wanting exposure to global dining. [25]
Fundamentals: earnings, growth and the K‑shaped consumer
Recent results and commentary paint a picture of a resilient but not immune consumer franchise.
Earnings and sales trends
For full‑year 2024, McDonald’s generated about $25.9 billion in revenue, up roughly 1.7% year‑on‑year, with net income around $8.2 billion, down about 3% amid cost pressures and heavier promotional activity. [26]
In its most recent reported quarter (Q3 2025):
- Global comparable sales grew about 3.6%, slightly above analyst expectations near 3.55%.
- U.S. comps rose 2.4%, while key international markets — notably Germany and Australia — delivered stronger growth around the mid‑single digits.
- Foot traffic fell by roughly 3.5% from July to September, more than the broader restaurant industry’s 2.3% decline, with higher average checks offsetting some of that weakness. [27]
Reuters and others attribute this pattern to value‑oriented promotions (e.g., $5 meal deals and lower‑priced items like $2.99 Snack Wraps) helping to preserve sales even as some diners cut back. [28]
The K‑shaped lunch crowd
A widely discussed theme in 2025 is the “K‑shaped” economy: higher‑income customers continue to spend, while lower‑income consumers pull back under the weight of inflation and slower wage growth. A November feature on McDonald’s and Cava’s earnings highlighted that younger and lower‑income diners are visiting less often, even as more affluent guests remain willing to pay for convenience. [29]
Additional research summarized in late‑November outlook pieces suggests double‑digit declines in traffic from lower‑income households, partially offset by higher‑income diners trading down from pricier restaurants. TS2 Tech This mix supports margins but can make it harder for McDonald’s to grow traffic without sacrificing pricing power.
Forward growth expectations
Looking ahead, Simply Wall St’s consensus‑based models project:
- Earnings growth of around 7% per year,
- Revenue growth of roughly 5% per year, and
- EPS growth close to 9% annually over the next few years. [30]
These are healthy numbers for a mature, franchise‑heavy business, but they also underpin the view that a lot of the long‑term story is already embedded in the share price. [31]
Dividend and shareholder returns: the core of the MCD thesis
For many investors, McDonald’s is first and foremost a dividend machine.
A fresh dividend hike
On October 22, 2025, the board approved a 5% increase in the quarterly cash dividend, from $1.77 to $1.86 per share, payable on December 15, 2025 to holders of record on December 1. [32]
Key dividend stats from recent data providers:
- Annualized dividend: about $7.44 per share. [33]
- Current dividend yield: roughly 2.3–2.5%, depending on the price snapshot. [34]
- Payout ratio: around 60–61% of earnings. [35]
- Dividend growth streak: about 50 consecutive years of annual increases, cementing McDonald’s status as a leading Dividend Aristocrat. [36]
That combination of moderate yield, consistent growth and a low‑beta share price is a key reason MCD frequently appears on lists of reliable dividend stocks for defensive or income‑oriented portfolios. [37]
Analyst ratings and price targets: modest upside
Across major platforms, the message from Wall Street is remarkably consistent: McDonald’s is a high‑quality franchise with modest upside from today’s price.
Recent snapshots show:
- MarketBeat: consensus rating “Hold”, with 11 Buys, 15 Holds and 2 Sells and an average target of about $324.57. [38]
- StockAnalysis: average target $326.35, implying roughly 4–5% upside from the price they reference, and a “Buy” consensus. [39]
- Benzinga: consensus target about $326.24, with a high of $375 and a low of $260. [40]
- Moomoo (updated Dec. 2, 2025): average target $336.78, with a range of $305–$375 and a “slightly bullish” stance from 21 analysts. [41]
- MarketWatch/Yahoo analysis pages: aggregate ratings in the “Overweight/Buy” area, with targets clustered near the low‑to‑mid $330s. [42]
Against the current price around $301, those target ranges translate to:
- Roughly 8–12% potential price appreciation, plus
- Around 2.4–2.5% dividend yield,
for a low‑double‑digit total‑return profile if forecasts play out as expected.
Not everyone is so optimistic on valuation. Recent pieces on Simply Wall St and Seeking Alpha argue that McDonald’s trades at a premium multiple versus its growth outlook and may be overvalued on conservative DCF assumptions, limiting further upside unless earnings surprise to the upside. [43]
Strategic growth drivers: AI, digital and the CosMc’s experiment
Beyond day‑to‑day price action, McDonald’s is investing heavily in technology and format innovation.
AI and digital initiatives
McDonald’s has signaled plans to expand AI tools across its 40,000‑plus locations globally by 2027, focusing on automated order taking, personalized offers and operational efficiencies. [44]
These efforts build on an already strong digital and loyalty ecosystem, which now accounts for a significant share of system‑wide sales and gives the company more levers for targeted promotions like the Grinch Meal and other app‑exclusive offers. TS2 Tech+2Reuters+2
CosMc’s: a small‑format, beverage‑led test bed
McDonald’s is also experimenting with CosMc’s, a beverage‑centric spinoff concept:
- As of early 2025, seven CosMc’s locations were open, most in Texas, with McDonald’s planning to open two additional small‑format sites and close three larger conversions from traditional restaurants. [45]
- Company commentary cited in Nation’s Restaurant News says smaller footprint locations with drive‑thru and digital ordering have been more effective than larger, converted units, and the test will continue “for the foreseeable future.” [46]
While CosMc’s is far from being a material earnings driver, it illustrates McDonald’s willingness to experiment at the edges of its model — helpful optionality if the concept scales.
Is McDonald’s stock a buy, hold or watch in December 2025?
Putting the latest news and data together:
Pros
- Globally recognized brand with enormous scale and a franchise‑heavy, high‑margin business model. [47]
- Steady revenue and EPS growth expectations in the mid‑single to high‑single digits. [48]
- A newly raised dividend with a half‑century growth streak, ~2.4–2.5% yield and a manageable ~60% payout ratio. [49]
- Defensive qualities: low beta, stable cash flows and strong positioning when markets get choppy. [50]
Cons
- Valuation sits in the “fully priced” zone by many measures, with some models flagging mid‑teens overvaluation on a DCF basis. [51]
- Traffic pressure among lower‑income consumers and intense competition on value from other quick‑service and fast‑casual chains. [52]
- Recent insider sales and mixed institutional flows (some big buyers, some trimming positions) suggest that many large stakeholders see limited short‑term upside at current levels. [53]
How the consensus reads right now
Most current research — including new pieces dated December 2, 2025 — points to McDonald’s as a relatively safe, income‑oriented holding with moderate upside, rather than a high‑beta growth story or a bargain value play. [54]
For investors:
- If you prioritize dividend growth, stability and brand strength, MCD still fits neatly into the “core holding” bucket.
- If you are valuation‑sensitive or seeking high growth, you may find better risk/reward elsewhere in the restaurant or broader consumer sector, as several comparative pieces suggest peers like Darden Restaurants (DRI) or Yum China (YUMC) offer more attractive combinations of growth and value. [55]
Either way, the latest December news — from the dividend hike and holiday promotions to the new valuation work and insider activity — suggests McDonald’s stock is at an equilibrium point: not cheap, not fragile, and likely to deliver steady but unspectacular returns unless a new growth driver or stronger‑than‑expected earnings surprise shifts the narrative.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research or consult a licensed financial professional before making investment decisions.
References
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