As of December 2, 2025, Block, Inc. — the fintech behind Square, Cash App and Afterpay — is trading sharply lower even after reporting record holiday-shopping volumes and reiterating an ambitious multi‑year growth plan. Here’s a detailed look at what is happening with Block stock today, what the latest news means, and how Wall Street’s Block stock forecast is shaping up.
Block stock today: sharp sell‑off on heavy volume
On Tuesday, December 2, 2025, Block (NYSE: XYZ) closed around $60.11, down about 6.6% on the day. The stock traded between $59.97 and $65.28, with volume of roughly 20.7 million shares, far above its recent 30‑day average of ~7.9 million. [1]
MarketBeat’s live tape shows a similar picture: Block ended regular trading at about $60.07 (‑6.65%), with a small bounce to ~$60.40 in the after‑hours session. [2]
Key context:
- The stock is now well below its 52‑week high near $99.26 and only modestly above its 52‑week low around $44.27. [3]
- At today’s price, Block’s market capitalization is roughly $39 billion. [4]
- Morpher’s AI-based tracker notes Block was down about 7.8% by 18:06 on December 2, flagging a “bearish signal” based on negative momentum — a reminder of how volatile this name has become. [5]
This drop comes just days after the stock rallied on Investor Day optimism and an enlarged buyback program — which makes today’s selling pressure all the more notable. [6]
Headline news today: 124 million BFCM transactions, +10% YoY
The biggest fundamental headline on December 2, 2025 is Block’s Black Friday–Cyber Monday (BFCM) report.
According to the company’s Business Wire release, Block processed over 124 million “Block Consumer Spend Transactions” across Square, Cash App and Afterpay during the BFCM period (Nov 29–Dec 2, 2025), representing a 10% year‑over‑year increase. [7]
Key BFCM metrics from Block’s release and follow‑up coverage: [8]
- Total transactions: 124M, +10% YoY.
- Unique consumers: ~49.8 million shoppers engaged with Square, Cash App Card, and Afterpay.
- Businesses served:More than 1.3 million sellers over the four-day weekend.
- Local spending: Cash App cardholders increased local spending by 25% YoY.
- BNPL (Afterpay):
- Average basket size for buy-now-pay-later purchases up ~10%.
- Spend per BNPL customer up ~6%.
- Gift cards: Gift card spend reached roughly $33.5 million over the weekend.
- Neighborhood highlights:
- Midtown Atlanta: ~$13M in weekend volume with ~469k transactions.
- West Village (NYC): ~$2.5M in volume.
- Lower West Side (Chicago): updated to $8.4M after a correction in the initial release.
Block stresses that “Block Consumer Spend Transactions” is an internal marketing metric capturing posted and pending card/cash transactions and does not equal Square GPV (gross payment volume) — but it’s still a strong proxy for overall ecosystem activity around one of the most important shopping periods of the year. [9]
For investors, this data suggests that consumer demand and merchant throughput remain solid heading into Q4, particularly in local, small‑business spending — a key segment for Square and Cash App.
So why is Block stock down today? UBS remarks and growth worries
If the BFCM numbers are so strong, why did Block stock sink ~6–7% on the same day?
Two main forces are in focus:
1. UBS Global Technology & AI Conference commentary
Block presented at the UBS Global Technology and AI Conference 2025 on December 2. Market coverage notes that shares dipped after management indicated a “slight deceleration” in Square gross payment volume (GPV) growth in Q4 versus the prior quarter. [10]
A GuruFocus recap explicitly connects today’s stock decline to investor reactions following these remarks at the conference. [11]
Investors who had just bid the stock up on Investor Day optimism and a larger buyback are now being reminded that merchant volume growth is still cyclical and rate‑sensitive, especially for larger sellers.
2. Persistent technical pressure and crypto correlation
Block has also been trading in a fragile technical position:
- A recent Barchart analysis highlighted that Block shares were trading below all key moving averages amid a Bitcoin sell‑off, framing the chart as bearish even before today’s drop. [12]
- Technical forecaster StockInvest.us sees a short‑term downtrend and projects an expected trading range of roughly $58.55–$61.67 for the next session, implying intraday swings of about ±5%. [13]
When a stock is already below major moving averages, even mildly cautious commentary (like “slight deceleration” in Square GPV) can act as a catalyst for larger downside moves as quant, momentum and options traders pile on.
Investor Day recap: mid‑teens growth, $15.8B gross profit target & $5B more buybacks
Today’s price action can’t be separated from Block’s big picture story, which was reset just a couple of weeks ago at its 2025 Investor Day (Nov 19).
From CNBC, Business Wire and related coverage, key points of Block’s new three‑year outlook (through 2028) include: [14]
- Gross profit target:
- Block expects gross profit to reach around $15.8–16 billion by 2028, implying mid‑teens annual growth over the next three years.
- Profitability & leverage:
- Management guided for adjusted operating income to grow roughly 30% annually, aiming for significant operating leverage as the business scales.
- Capital allocation:
- Block announced a $5 billion increase to its stock repurchase program, on top of the $1.1 billion authorization still remaining as of late Q3.
- 2026 guidance & 2025 updates:
- The company laid out 2026 financial guidance and reiterated its focus on balancing growth and profitability across Cash App, Square and Proto.
- Earlier commentary from Reuters and other outlets noted that Block raised its 2025 gross profit outlook to about $10.17 billion from $9.96 billion, reflecting stronger execution and resilient consumer spending. [15]
Proactive Investors reported that the stock jumped around 6% following this event, as investors digested the stronger long‑term outlook and buyback expansion. [16]
Bottom line: Despite today’s slide, Block is explicitly telling the market it believes it can grow gross profit in the mid‑teens and accelerate earnings into 2028, while buying back a meaningful amount of stock.
Cash App, AI and new products: deepening the ecosystem
Beyond macro guidance, Block is also pushing aggressively on the product and AI front, especially inside Cash App.
On November 13, 2025, Cash App launched its first bundled “Cash App Release”, with 11 product updates and more than 150 improvements across banking, bitcoin, commerce and peer‑to‑peer features. [17]
Highlights from Block and industry coverage: [18]
- Moneybot AI: A new AI‑powered navigation and insights tool to help users understand and manage their money.
- Stablecoin support: Ability to send and receive stablecoins within Cash App, recognizing the shift toward more decentralized and programmable money.
- Enhanced banking features (“Cash App Green”): More flexible benefits around direct deposit, saving and spending, targeting the millions of U.S. workers with fragmented income streams.
- Bitcoin map: A Bitcoin map tool that lets users find nearby merchants using Square and accepting bitcoin, tying Cash App’s crypto focus back into the Square merchant base.
- Teen & safety controls: New parental controls to set transaction limits and block certain payments for teen users.
- New borrowing options: Expanded access to small‑ticket loans from within Cash App, building on prior experiments with Cash App Borrow.
Digital Transactions described it as “a big update day” for Cash App users as Block layered AI, lending and crypto features into the wallet. [19]
These updates dovetail with Block’s broader AI narrative and the company’s emphasis on cross‑selling between Cash App and Square, which management has highlighted as a key driver in its multi‑year plan.
Q3 2025 results: profitability up, but the stock still stumbled
Block’s current volatility started with its Q3 2025 earnings report in early November.
From the company’s financials and analyst recaps: [20]
- Revenue:
- Q3 revenue came in at $6.11 billion, up about 2.3% year‑over‑year.
- Profitability:
- Net income reached roughly $462 million, up ~63% YoY, with EPS of $0.54.
- Gross profit was about $2.66 billion, growing 18% YoY.
- Cash App gross profit grew around 24% YoY, while Square also delivered double‑digit growth.
- Beat vs expectations:
- MarketBeat notes that Block beat consensus EPS estimates (~$0.25) with $0.54 and slightly topped revenue expectations as well. [21]
Yet, despite the headline beat, the market reaction was harsh:
- Coverage from CNBC and Investopedia on November 7 described Block stock falling around 10% in a single session after the report, citing concerns about slower growth, margin trends and cautious commentary around large-seller volumes. [22]
In other words, Block is earning more money than ever, but investors are laser‑focused on how fast it can grow from here and whether it can hit those 2028 targets without sacrificing profitability.
Analyst ratings & Block stock forecast: moderate buy with 30–40% upside
Despite recent volatility, Wall Street remains broadly constructive on Block.
Across major data providers, the picture looks like this:
- MarketWatch (Analyst Estimates):
- Average price target: about $83.49
- Number of ratings: 46
- Average recommendation: Overweight. [23]
- Wall Street Journal:
- Average target: ~$83.49
- Median:$85
- Range:$45–$105. [24]
- MarketBeat (Forecast page):
- 37 analysts tracked.
- Consensus rating: Moderate Buy (1 sell, 12 hold, 21 buy, 3 strong buy).
- Average 12‑month target:$83.42, implying roughly 39% upside from a reference price around $60. [25]
- TipRanks:
- 28 analysts over the past 3 months.
- Consensus rating: Moderate Buy (22 buy, 4 hold, 2 sell).
- Average target:$86.59, with a $55–$105 range, implying roughly 30% upside from late‑November prices. [26]
- StockAnalysis.com:
- 31 analysts, consensus “Buy”.
- Average target:$80.06, about 33% above the current price. [27]
- Public.com (as of Dec 2, 2025):
- 29 analysts, consensus “Buy”.
- Average target: about $84.10. [28]
Taken together, most sell‑side analysts see Block stock as undervalued, with typical price targets in the low‑to‑mid $80s — roughly 30–40% upside versus today’s ~$60 share price, albeit with a wide range of opinions.
Valuation snapshot: cheaper than many fintech peers
Based on recent data from GuruFocus, FinanceCharts and other sources: [29]
- Block trades at a trailing P/E around the low‑teens (~13x).
- Its price‑to‑sales ratio earlier this year was discussed around 1.8x vs a 4‑year average near 2.8x, at a somewhat higher share price than today. [30]
Given the mid‑teens gross profit growth Block is targeting, many long‑term‑oriented analysts argue this is a “growth at a reasonable price” setup — provided the company actually delivers on those 2025–2028 goals.
Short‑term trading outlook: volatility ahead
Short‑term forecasting tools and quantitative services paint a fairly choppy near‑term picture:
- StockInvest.us projects for the next trading day that Block could trade between roughly $58.55 and $61.67, based on its 14‑day Average True Range, suggesting daily swings of around ±5% are normal right now. [31]
- Barchart’s recent piece emphasized that Block is below all key moving averages, a classic bearish technical sign, while still acknowledging the long‑term investment case if the company executes on its growth plan. [32]
- Morpher’s AI‑driven “Block Inc. Stock Forecast: Down 7.8% Today” notes a bearish signal based on momentum and cross‑asset flows, but explicitly warns that its summaries may contain inaccuracies and are not investment advice — a good reminder to use such tools as inputs, not answers. [33]
For traders, the message is clear: expect volatility, and size positions accordingly.
Key risks & catalysts for Block stock
Even with strong Black Friday numbers and an upbeat 2028 target, Block stock faces several important risks and potential catalysts:
- Bitcoin and crypto sensitivity
Block continues to derive a meaningful part of its narrative — and some revenue — from bitcoin and broader crypto adoption. Barchart and others highlight how Bitcoin sell‑offs often weigh on Block’s shares, while crypto rallies can provide a tailwind. [34] - BNPL regulation (Afterpay)
A recent Dow Jones/MT Newswires piece noted that buy‑now‑pay‑later (BNPL) companies are being asked to share more details about their lending practices, underscoring regulatory scrutiny. [35]
Tighter rules or higher compliance costs could impact Afterpay economics over time. - Competition from PayPal and others
Payments Dive, Barchart and other outlets frequently compare Block to PayPal, Visa and other payment networks. While PayPal has lagged Block over some timeframes, it remains a powerful competitor with its own turnaround plans. [36] - Execution on multi‑year plan
The $15.8B 2028 gross profit target and mid‑teens growth outlook are ambitious. Missing those goals — or walking them back — could materially impact investor confidence. - Macro and rates
Block’s small‑business and discretionary‑spend exposure makes it sensitive to consumer demand, credit conditions and interest rates. A weaker economy or slower rate‑cut path could weigh on volumes and BNPL performance.
What December 2, 2025 really means for Block stock
Putting it all together:
- Fundamental signals today are positive:
Block’s Black Friday–Cyber Monday results show double‑digit transaction growth, rising local spending, and increased BNPL basket sizes — all signs that its ecosystem is still gaining traction. [37] - Market reaction is focused on the growth path, not just the snapshot:
Comments about “slight deceleration” in Square GPV and lingering memories of the Q3 sell‑off remind investors that Block’s growth story is uneven and highly scrutinized. [38] - Wall Street’s Block stock forecast remains constructive:
Most analyst aggregators still show a Moderate Buy / Buy consensus and average 12‑month price targets in the low‑to‑mid $80s, implying substantial upside if the company delivers. [39] - Valuation is no longer “hyper‑growth” rich:
With a low‑teens P/E and discounts to its historical price‑to‑sales multiples, Block is now valued more like a profitable fintech compounder than a pure high‑flyer — but that also means execution risk is squarely on display. [40]
For readers following Block stock (XYZ / formerly SQ), December 2, 2025 is a classic example of good news on the business, bad news for the share price: strong holiday and product data, offset by renewed worries about the exact shape of future growth.
Important note: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Block, Inc. is a volatile stock; before buying or selling, consider your own financial situation, risk tolerance, and, ideally, consult a qualified financial adviser.
References
1. stockanalysis.com, 2. www.marketbeat.com, 3. www.google.com, 4. www.google.com, 5. www.morpher.com, 6. mlq.ai, 7. investors.block.xyz, 8. investors.block.xyz, 9. investors.block.xyz, 10. www.marketscreener.com, 11. www.gurufocus.com, 12. www.barchart.com, 13. stockinvest.us, 14. benzatine.com, 15. lightyear.com, 16. mlq.ai, 17. www.nasdaq.com, 18. www.nasdaq.com, 19. www.digitaltransactions.net, 20. www.google.com, 21. www.marketbeat.com, 22. www.marketbeat.com, 23. www.marketwatch.com, 24. www.wsj.com, 25. www.marketbeat.com, 26. www.tipranks.com, 27. stockanalysis.com, 28. public.com, 29. www.google.com, 30. www.forbes.com, 31. stockinvest.us, 32. www.barchart.com, 33. www.morpher.com, 34. www.barchart.com, 35. www.marketscreener.com, 36. www.morpher.com, 37. investors.block.xyz, 38. www.marketscreener.com, 39. www.marketbeat.com, 40. www.financecharts.com
