The TJX Companies, Inc. (NYSE:TJX) – owner of TJ Maxx, Marshalls, HomeGoods, TK Maxx and other off‑price banners – is heading into the crucial holiday period trading just below record highs after a strong third quarter and a flurry of fresh analyst and fund‑flow updates.
As of the close on December 2, 2025, TJX shares changed hands around $150, within a whisker of their 52‑week high of $154.66 and well above the 52‑week low of $112.10. The market values the company at roughly $167 billion, with the stock on about 33x trailing earnings, according to Benzinga and StockInvest data. [1]
Below is a detailed look at all the major news, forecasts and analyses since December 2, 2025, and how they fit into the bigger picture for TJX stock.
1. Where TJX Stock Stands After December 2, 2025
On December 2, TJX slipped about 0.7% to $150.02, marking a third straight daily decline after touching an all‑time high in late November. [2]
Key near‑term numbers:
- Last close (Dec 2, 2025): $150.02
- Day range: $149.41 – $151.74 [3]
- 52‑week range: $112.10 – $154.66 [4]
- Market cap: about $167–168 billion [5]
- Performance: Up more than 26% year‑to‑date, with shares hitting an all‑time high on November 26, 2025, helped by the “trade‑down” wave as consumers seek bargains. [6]
Volatility remains relatively tame: StockInvest notes that TJX has moved about 1.7–1.8% per day on average over the past week, with daily swings on December 2 of 1.56% between the low and high. [7]
For investors, this backdrop sets the stage: TJX is a large‑cap retail winner already near record levels, so the latest data since 2 December 2025 matters for deciding whether there is still upside.
2. Fresh Signals Since December 2, 2025
2.1 Technical view: “Buy” trend, but downgraded to Hold/Accumulate
On December 2, technical research site StockInvest updated its view on TJX, downgrading the stock from a “Buy” to a “Hold/Accumulate” rating after the minor pullback from record highs. [8]
Their key takeaways:
- TJX fell 0.73% on Dec 2 (from $151.13 to $150.02) and has declined three sessions in a row, though it remains up about 3.3% over the past two weeks. [9]
- The stock sits in the middle of a weak rising short‑term trend, with technical models projecting a ~6.9% gain over the next three months and a 90% probability that the price will fall between $153.26 and $164.13 over that period. [10]
- There is support around $148.86 and resistance near $151.13, with a suggested technical stop‑loss around $144.78. [11]
In short: algorithmic technicals see continued upside within an uptrend, but not enough edge at current levels to call TJX a strong tactical Buy.
2.2 Institutional flows: Fisher buys, M&T trims
Two new institutional ownership filings, highlighted by MarketBeat on December 2, 2025, show active repositioning around TJX stock:
- M&T Bank Corp
- Trimmed its TJX position by 2.9%, selling 14,046 shares.
- Still holds 466,528 shares, valued around $57.6 million at the time of the filing. [12]
- Fisher Asset Management LLC
- Dramatically boosted its stake by 4,187.6%, adding 468,340 shares.
- Now owns about 479,524 TJX shares, worth roughly $59.2 million after the increase. [13]
Both filings reference the same strong Q3 earnings beat and upgraded FY26 guidance (more on that below), suggesting large investors remain generally constructive but are adjusting position sizes based on individual portfolio strategies.
2.3 Updated stock analysis profiles
Benzinga’s stock analysis report, updated on December 2, 2025, reinforces TJX’s reputation as a high‑quality compounder: [14]
- Price at update: $150.02
- P/E ratio: about 33.4x
- Market cap: roughly $167.4 billion
- Business profile:
- Leading global off‑price retailer with nearly 5,200 stores worldwide.
- Leverages more than 21,000 vendor relationships to offer brand‑name goods at 20–60% below conventional retail prices.
- About 75% of sales are in the U.S., with the rest split across Canada, Europe and Australia.
Benzinga’s internal rankings score TJX highly on growth (≈88/100) and momentum (≈74/100), with solid but not cheap value metrics, underlining that investors are paying up for quality rather than outright deep value. [15]
2.4 New commentary: TJX flagged as an S&P 500 standout
On December 1, 2025, StockStory named TJX one of two S&P 500 stocks with “exciting potential,” highlighting: [16]
- Same‑store sales at locations open at least a year have averaged 4% growth over the past two years, signalling enduring demand.
- An enormous revenue base near $59 billion gives TJX significant bargaining power with suppliers even despite low individual gross margins.
- Market‑beating returns on capital, suggesting management has historically invested in profitable growth opportunities.
StockStory notes TJX recently traded around $151.57, on about 30.5x forward earnings, and frames the core debate as whether this premium multiple still offers attractive long‑term returns. [17]
3. Q3 FY26 Results: The Earnings Beat Driving the Story
Although TJX reported third‑quarter fiscal 2026 (Q3 FY26) results on November 19, 2025, those numbers still anchor every forecast and rating published since December 2.
For the quarter ended November 1, 2025:
- Net sales:$15.1 billion, up 7% year‑on‑year. [18]
- Comparable sales:+5%, above company plans and Street expectations. [19]
- Net income: about $1.4 billion. [20]
- Diluted EPS:$1.28, up 12% from $1.14 a year earlier and ahead of consensus estimates around $1.22–1.23. [21]
- Pretax profit margin:12.7%, about 40 basis points higher than last year and above the company’s own plan. [22]
Across segments, sales gains were broad‑based:
- Marmaxx (TJ Maxx, Marshalls, Sierra) +7% net sales.
- HomeGoods +8% net sales.
- TJX Canada +8%.
- TJX International (Europe & Australia) +9%. [23]
For the first nine months of FY26, TJX delivered:
- Net sales:$42.6 billion, up 7% year‑on‑year.
- Comparable sales:+4%.
- EPS:$3.30, up 9% from $3.03. [24]
Balance sheet and capital returns
TJX’s financial position is another key pillar of the bullish thesis:
- Cash and cash equivalents: about $4.6 billion.
- Long‑term debt: around $1.9–2.9 billion (depending on source classification). [25]
- Operating cash flow (nine months): roughly $3.7 billion. [26]
- Capital returns YTD: about $3.1 billion, split into $1.7 billion of share repurchases and $1.4 billion in dividends. [27]
Dividend investors should note that TJX has been increasing its quarterly dividend, most recently paying $0.425 per share in November 2025, with multiple $0.425 payments throughout the year following a raise from $0.375. [28]
Upgraded FY26 guidance
Importantly, TJX used the Q3 beat to raise full‑year fiscal 2026 guidance:
- FY26 EPS: now expected between $4.63 and $4.66, up from the prior $4.52–$4.57 range. [29]
- Annual comparable sales: now projected to rise 4%, versus a prior forecast of around 3%. [30]
CEO Ernie Herrman has repeatedly emphasised that value‑conscious holiday shoppers and the “treasure‑hunt” appeal of TJX’s stores are driving traffic and justify the more optimistic outlook. [31]
4. Business Model: The “Anti‑Tech” Off‑Price Giant
A widely discussed Financial Times feature last week described TJX as possibly “the anti‑tech stock” – thriving in retail while keeping e‑commerce deliberately small. [32]
Key structural features:
- TJX buys excess inventory and overruns from premium brands and department stores, then sells in its stores at deep discounts.
- The in‑store “treasure hunt” – constantly changing assortments and no guarantee of repeat stock – encourages frequent visits and impulse buys. [33]
- E‑commerce contributes less than 2% of sales, meaning TJX has largely avoided the high capital intensity and margin pressure of building out a huge online business and advanced logistics systems. [34]
- As of Q3 FY26, TJX operated 5,191 stores across nine countries, with steady net store growth. [35]
This low‑tech, store‑first strategy has looked increasingly clever as many full‑price retailers struggle with digital transition costs and falling mall traffic. At the same time, the model depends heavily on continued access to attractive closeout merchandise, and on consumers’ ongoing appetite for in‑store shopping.
5. Expansion Plans: Toward 7,000 Stores and New Markets
TJX is not standing still. Over the last year and a half, management has laid out aggressive expansion plans:
- In early 2025, the company said it planned to add roughly 130 net new stores over 12 months, including 40 TJ Maxx/Marshalls, 30 HomeGoods, 20 Sierra and 9 HomeSense locations, plus dozens of new stores in Canada, Europe and Australia. [36]
- On its Q2 FY26 call, TJX went further, flagging plans to open about 1,800 new stores as off‑price demand grows, taking its global store base well above 5,000 locations. [37]
- Some recent commentary (including AInvest and media pick‑ups of management’s comments) point to a long‑term ambition of around 7,000 global stores by 2030, with particular focus on Spain, Mexico and the Middle East via joint ventures and partnerships. [38]
- Tabloid coverage in late November suggested that TJ Maxx and Marshalls could be considering around 2,000 additional stores, aiming for a total of about 7,000 locations globally, though that figure is more aggressive than prior official guidance and should be treated as indicative rather than fixed. [39]
Near term, TJX’s European banner TK Maxx will reach a new market: it is slated to open its first store in Spain (Barcelona) in January 2026, signalling continued international growth. [40]
The common takeaway: square‑footage growth is still a major earnings lever, especially in underpenetrated geographies, and this expansion narrative is built into many bullish price targets.
6. What Wall Street Price Targets Say About TJX
Analysts have responded to the Q3 beat and raised guidance with another round of target hikes – many of them published in late November but now embedded in the consensus used in early‑December forecasts.
6.1 Consensus targets and ratings
Different aggregators are broadly aligned:
- MarketBeat:
- 25 analysts, consensus “Buy” (24 Buy / 1 Hold / 0 Sell / 1 Strong Buy).
- Average 12‑month price target:$158.90, implying about 5.9% upside from around $150.10.
- Target range: $133 – $181. [41]
- Benzinga / Benzinga Edge:
- Based on 19 analyst ratings, 12‑month targets span $140–$181, with an average of roughly $161.20, implying ~7.2% expected upside. [42]
- StockAnalysis.com:
- 17 analysts, average rating “Strong Buy”.
- 12‑month target: about $161.06, ~7.4% upside. [43]
- MarketWatch:
- About 23 analysts, average recommendation Overweight and target near $164. [44]
Taken together, Wall Street sees mid‑single‑digit to low‑double‑digit upside over 12 months from early‑December prices, with no major sell ratings.
6.2 Recent individual target moves
Since the Q3 release on November 19, several high‑profile brokers have refreshed their numbers, most of which are now feeding into December 2–3 consensus snapshots:
- UBS: raised target from $172 to $181 (Buy). [45]
- Barclays: raised from $155 to $168 (Overweight). [46]
- Citigroup: raised from $160 to $168 (Buy). [47]
- TD Cowen: raised from $162 to $167 (Buy), citing stronger‑than‑expected same‑store sales and margins across divisions. [48]
- Robert W. Baird: lifted target from $152 to $160 and reiterated an Outperform rating, highlighting recent positive developments and resilience of the off‑price model. [49]
- Telsey Advisory Group: set a $155 price target with an Outperform rating, according to QuiverQuant’s forecast tracker. [50]
- Wells Fargo: bumped its target from $140 to $145, maintaining an Equal Weight stance, noting strong performance but also the rich valuation. [51]
Overall, the distribution of targets is skewed upward, with the bulk of major firms clustering between roughly $155 and $170.
7. Short‑Term Trading Lens: Momentum and Risk
From a trading perspective, the picture is slightly more nuanced than the long‑term fundamental story.
StockInvest’s December 2 update suggests: [52]
- The short‑term moving average currently signals “sell”, while the long‑term average still flashes “buy,” leaving the stock with an overall positive long‑term but cautious short‑term profile.
- A pivot top was identified on November 26, with the stock down about 2% since that high, which the model interprets as potential further downside risk before a new bottom.
- Over the next trading day (December 3), the model expects an opening near $150.39 and an intraday range of about $148.64 – $151.40, roughly ±1.85% around the prior close.
Meanwhile, Seeking Alpha notes that TJX is one of the “retail winners” riding the trade‑down wave to fresh highs, with shares up more than 26% in 2025 and setting an all‑time high on November 26. [53]
The upshot: momentum is still favourable, but the stock is no longer cheap or neglected, and short‑term traders may see a tug‑of‑war between profit‑taking and continued dip‑buying.
8. Sector and Macro Context: Trade‑Down Tailwinds
TJX’s story is tightly linked to broader off‑price retail dynamics:
- In Q2 FY26, TJX already posted 4% comp growth and an 11.4% pretax profit margin, and raised full‑year guidance – a trend reinforced in Q3. [54]
- Competitor Ross Stores likewise raised its annual profit forecast in November, citing robust demand for discounted goods, and analysts pointed out that TJX also upgraded its outlook, confirming a strong sector backdrop. [55]
- By contrast, big‑box and department store peers such as Target have reported weaker same‑store sales and pressure on discretionary categories, reflecting shoppers’ shift toward value channels like TJX. [56]
In other words, trade‑down is still in full swing, and TJX is one of the primary beneficiaries.
9. Key Risks Investors Are Watching
Even with robust fundamentals, TJX is not risk‑free. Major watchpoints include:
- Valuation risk
- At more than 30x forward earnings, TJX trades at a meaningful premium to the overall market and many retail peers. [57]
- If growth slows or guidance disappoints, the multiple could compress, putting pressure on the share price even if earnings remain solid.
- Tariffs and sourcing costs
- Management has repeatedly flagged that U.S. tariffs and import costs can squeeze margins, even as strong sourcing opportunities create offsetting tailwinds. [58]
- Execution risk on large‑scale expansion
- Rolling out hundreds (or potentially thousands) of new stores increases operational complexity, from real estate selection to inventory management and staffing.
- A prolonged recession or mis‑timed expansion could leave TJX with too much capacity in weaker markets. [59]
- Limited e‑commerce presence
- Being an “anti‑tech” retailer is a competitive advantage today, but exposure to long‑term shifts toward online shopping remains a strategic question.
- Online sales are only about 2% of revenue, which keeps margins high but could be a vulnerability if consumer preferences change sharply. [60]
- Labour, wage and shrink costs
- Q3 FY26 results show SG&A rising as a share of sales due to higher wages, payroll, incentive compensation and philanthropic contributions, partially offsetting gross margin gains. [61]
- Macro and consumer‑confidence risk
- Off‑price tends to be resilient during downturns, but a severe shock to employment or consumer confidence could still hurt traffic and ticket sizes; conversely, if the economy re‑accelerates strongly, trade‑down dynamics could cool.
10. Bottom Line: How the December 2025 Picture Looks for TJX Stock
Putting it all together, here’s how TJX looks after the latest developments since December 2, 2025:
Bullish factors
- Consistent earnings outperformance: Q3 FY26 delivered a 7% sales increase, 5% comp growth, expanding margins and EPS up 12%, beating expectations and company plans. [62]
- Upgraded full‑year guidance: Management now expects higher FY26 EPS and comp growth, signalling confidence heading into the holiday season. [63]
- Robust balance sheet and capital returns: Billions in cash, strong operating cash flow and ongoing buybacks and dividends support shareholder returns. [64]
- Long runway for store growth: Plans for hundreds of new stores and entry into new markets like Spain provide structural growth potential beyond same‑store sales. [65]
- Favourable sector trends: Value‑seeking shoppers and trade‑down behaviour continue to push demand toward off‑price chains like TJX and Ross. [66]
- Broad analyst support: Virtually all covering analysts rate the stock Buy or better, with average price targets in the $159–$164 range implying moderate upside from current levels. [67]
Caution flags
- Rich valuation: With the stock already near record highs and trading north of 30x forward earnings, some of the good news is firmly priced in. [68]
- Short‑term technicals cooling: Technical models have moved from “Buy” to “Hold/Accumulate” after a pivot top, suggesting potential consolidation or a modest pullback in the near term. [69]
- Macro and tariff uncertainties: Any sharp deterioration in consumer spending or escalation in trade costs could pressure margins and traffic. [70]
For long‑term investors, the latest data supports the view of TJX as a high‑quality, cash‑generative compounder that still has room to grow both its store network and earnings base. For short‑term traders, the story is more about managing entry points in a stock that is extended but still riding strong momentum.
As always, this article is informational only and not investment advice. Anyone considering buying or selling TJX shares should assess their own risk tolerance and financial situation, and consider speaking with a qualified financial adviser.
References
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