HCA Healthcare, Inc. (NYSE:HCA) is ending 2025 on a powerful note. After a year of double‑digit earnings growth and upgraded guidance, HCA stock is trading just above $500 per share, close to its 52‑week high of $520 and implying a market capitalization around $117 billion. [1]
On November 25, the stock touched an all‑time high of $515.85, and as of December 2 it was still near $503, more than 38% above its July 2024 peak of $363.05 — a rally powered by strong results from the company’s 191‑hospital network and an aggressive capital program. [2]
This article rounds up current news, forecasts and analyses through December 2, 2025, with a focus on what matters most for investors tracking HCA stock on Google News and Discover.
Key takeaways on HCA Healthcare stock (as of December 2, 2025)
- Price & performance
- Recent price: about $500 per share
- 12‑month range: roughly $290 – $520
- Market cap: ~$117 billion
- Trailing P/E: ~19.8x; PEG ratio about 1.4x [3]
- Fundamentals
- Q3 2025 revenue up 9.6% year‑over‑year to $19.2 billion
- Q3 net income attributable to HCA up 29% to $1.643 billion, or $6.96 EPS
- Nine‑month 2025 revenue of $56.1 billion and EPS of $20.23, both well ahead of 2024 [4]
- Guidance & growth
- 2025 revenue guidance: $75.0 – $76.5 billion
- 2025 EPS guidance: $27 – $28 (diluted)
- Capital expenditures for 2025: about $5.0 billion, excluding acquisitions [5]
- Capital returns
- Analyst sentiment
- Wall Street consensus: “Moderate Buy” / “Buy”
- Average 12‑month price targets cluster in the mid‑$460s to mid‑$470s, vs. a spot price around $500
- Target range: lows around $370, highs up to $525 [8]
A standout 2025: earnings and guidance behind the rally
HCA’s equity story in 2025 is fundamentally about better growth at better margins.
Q3 2025: strong growth and margin expansion
In its third‑quarter 2025 earnings release (October 24), HCA reported: [9]
- Revenue of $19.161 billion, up 9.6% from Q3 2024
- Net income attributable to HCA of $1.643 billion, up 29.4%
- Diluted EPS of $6.96, up 42.6% year‑over‑year
- Adjusted EBITDA of $3.87 billion, up 18.5%
- Same‑facility equivalent admissions up 2.4%, with growth in ER visits and both inpatient and outpatient surgeries
For the first nine months of 2025, revenue grew to $56.1 billion from $52.3 billion, while diluted EPS climbed to $20.23 from $16.37 a year earlier. [10]
Cash generation has been a major support for the stock. Operating cash flow in Q3 surged to $4.4 billion, up from $3.5 billion in Q3 2024, funding both the $5 billion capex plan and aggressive share repurchases. [11]
Upgraded 2025 outlook
On the back of these results, HCA raised full‑year 2025 guidance: [12]
- Revenue: from $74.0–$76.0 billion to $75.0–$76.5 billion
- Net income: from $6.11–$6.48 billion to $6.495–$6.715 billion
- Adjusted EBITDA: from $14.7–$15.3 billion to $15.25–$15.65 billion
- EPS (diluted): from $25.50–$27.00 to $27.00–$28.00
At a roughly $500 share price, that implies a forward P/E in the high‑teens, around 18x based on the mid‑point of EPS guidance — slightly below the trailing P/E of ~19.8x, but still a premium to many health‑care services names. [13]
Becker’s Hospital Review highlighted that this performance has translated into a record stock price, with HCA’s net income margin improving to around 8.6% in Q3 and nine‑month net income rising from $4.3 billion to $4.9 billion year‑over‑year. [14]
Strategic growth: outpatient expansion, workforce, and M&A
HCA’s growth narrative now extends well beyond its legacy inpatient business.
Outpatient network and capital program
At the Stephens Annual Investment Conference on November 20, 2025, HCA’s CFO laid out a multi‑year strategy that includes: [15]
- Expanding outpatient facilities from about 14 to 20 per hospital by the end of the decade
- Sustaining roughly 2–3% annual volume growth, reflecting both population growth in HCA’s markets and network share gains
- Investing around $5 billion of capital in 2025, with $6.7 billion already committed to ongoing projects
- Using scale and shared services to convert that volume growth into meaningful operating leverage
The company is also heavily focused on workforce development. Through its Galen College of Nursing, HCA is targeting roughly 30,000 students and 8,000–9,000 nursing graduates annually by 2030, a response to industry‑wide nurse shortages that have pressured hospital margins since the pandemic. [16]
2025 M&A moves
Becker’s also notes that HCA has been active on the transaction front in 2025, closing the acquisitions of Catholic Medical Center in Manchester, New Hampshire, and Lehigh Regional Medical Center in Florida, while selling Regional Medical Center in San Jose, California. [17]
These deals continue a familiar pattern: deepen in faster‑growing, commercially attractive markets and prune assets that don’t fit HCA’s long‑term strategic or returns profile.
Policy backdrop: ACA subsidies and 2026 risks
Policy risk is always central for hospital stocks, and 2025 has been no exception.
In its Q3 guidance update, HCA explicitly flagged potential impacts from: [18]
- Expiration of enhanced premium tax credits (EPTCs) for ACA marketplace plans after December 31, 2025
- The effects of the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” (OBBBA) on Medicare sequestration and federal spending
- Possible changes to Medicaid directed and supplemental payments and state waiver programs
- The risk of federal government shutdowns and interruptions in the flow of governmental funds
On November 24, 2025, Reuters reported that the Trump administration was considering a two‑year extension of ACA premium subsidies, which sparked a rally in managed‑care names and pushed hospital operators such as HCA up about 3% on the day. Analysts at Oppenheimer framed the proposal as broadly favorable for health‑care services, including hospitals. [19]
At the Stephens conference, HCA’s management emphasized that the company is planning for multiple policy scenarios, including a world where EPTCs expire on schedule but are partially offset by other tailwinds or resiliency initiatives. [20]
Latest news since December 2, 2025: institutional moves and sentiment
Institutional investors trim, but remain heavily invested
Two December 2 MarketBeat notes show institutional investors actively rebalancing HCA positions rather than abandoning the name: [21]
- Distillate Capital Partners:
- Cut its stake by 26.5%, selling 19,744 shares
- Still holds 54,833 shares worth about $21 million, roughly 1.1% of its portfolio
- Mackenzie Financial Corp:
- Reduced its holding by 6.9%, selling 7,512 shares
- Retains 100,615 shares valued around $38.5 million
Across the shareholder base, around 62.7% of HCA stock is owned by institutions and hedge funds, while insiders hold about 1.3%, according to these filings. [22]
The same reports reiterate HCA’s Q3 earnings beat, EPS guidance of $27–$28 for 2025, and the $0.72 quarterly dividend — all key pillars of the bullish thesis. [23]
Insider selling and buybacks
MarketBeat also highlights recent insider activity, including sales by Executive Vice Presidents Michael R. McAlevey and Michael S. Cuffe during September–November, at prices in the low‑to‑mid $400s. [24]
While insider selling often attracts headlines, it’s happening alongside substantial company buybacks: HCA repurchased 6.5 million shares in Q3 alone, and still has more than $3 billion of authorization remaining. [25]
Analyst ratings and stock forecasts for HCA
Wall Street consensus: “Moderate Buy” with cautious targets
Across major aggregators, HCA sits in the Buy / Moderate Buy bucket:
- MarketBeat:
- Consensus rating: “Moderate Buy” based on 24 analysts (14 Buy, 10 Hold)
- Average 12‑month target: $474.53, implying about 5% downside from a ~$500 price
- Target range: $370 – $525 [26]
- StockAnalysis:
- Consensus rating: “Buy” from 18 analysts
- Average target: $463.06, about 7–8% below the current price
- Target range: $370 – $525, with a median target of $482 [27]
Recent target hikes include:
- Goldman Sachs lifting its target from $470 to $520 (Strong Buy)
- UBS raising its target from $495 to $525 (Strong Buy)
- Jefferies and other brokers moving targets into the mid‑$400s to low‑$500s [28]
This mix of bullish upgrades and sub‑current average targets suggests that many analysts see HCA as high‑quality, but not obviously cheap after its run.
Technical and short‑term forecasts
On the purely technical side, StockScan notes: [29]
- Current price used: $500.31
- 30‑day forecast: average target $410.37, implying a ~18% pullback in the short term
- 12‑month forecast from its model: average $486.38 (≈3% below spot), with a wide range of $394 – $579
- Technical indicators:
- Most moving averages (10‑, 20‑, 50‑, 100‑, 200‑day) are in “Buy” territory
- Oscillators show a mix of Neutral/Buy, leading to an overall “Neutral” short‑term technical rating
So, systematic models are effectively saying: trend is up, but the stock is extended, and a correction would not be surprising.
Fundamental forecasts: revenue and EPS through 2026
StockAnalysis’s consensus financial forecasts imply that analysts expect HCA to keep compounding, though at a slower pace: [30]
- 2025 revenue: about $76.5 billion, up 8.4% vs. 2024
- 2026 revenue: about $80.0 billion, up 4.5%
- 2025 EPS: $27.86, up 26.7% vs. 2024
- 2026 EPS: $30.03, up 7.8%
That profile — high‑single‑digit revenue growth, mid‑single‑digit to high‑single‑digit EPS growth beyond a big 2025 step‑up — is consistent with a defensive compounder rather than a hyper‑growth stock.
Valuation: how expensive is HCA now?
Putting it all together, HCA currently trades at roughly: [31]
- ~19–20x trailing earnings
- ~18x 2025 EPS guidance (midpoint)
- ~1.6x trailing sales
- PEG ratio around 1.4x based on consensus growth
TickerNerd’s snapshot pegs market cap around $118 billion, trailing revenue near $74.4 billion, and a net margin around 8.5%, with year‑over‑year revenue growth of about 9.6% and EPS growth of roughly 29% — numbers broadly consistent with HCA’s Q3 release. [32]
A Trefis analysis earlier in December argued that much of HCA’s mid‑2025 share price surge reflected multiple expansion rather than explosive fundamental change: price gains since June significantly outpaced revenue growth, with a rising P/E doing part of the heavy lifting. [33]
Bottom line on valuation:
- For a company with high returns on capital, strong cash generation and a visible growth runway, a high‑teens forward P/E is not extreme.
- However, relative to past years and to some peers, the margin of safety has narrowed. Many sell‑side targets now sit below the current price, even though top‑tier banks like Goldman and UBS see room for modest further upside. [34]
Macro and sector context: why HCA is still standing out
The broader U.S. hospital sector has been wrestling with inflation, elevated labor costs, staffing shortages and tighter payer behaviour, including more aggressive denials and the lingering impact of the No Surprises Act on out‑of‑network billing. [35]
Within that challenging backdrop:
- HCA operates in markets with above‑average population and job growth, often with relatively high rates of employer‑sponsored insurance. [36]
- Its network strategy — surrounding hospital hubs with surgery centers, freestanding ERs, urgent care, and clinics — has helped capture share and shift more care to higher‑margin outpatient settings. [37]
- Its scale allows for shared services and centralized purchasing, mitigating wage and supply pressures more effectively than smaller systems. [38]
It’s also worth noting that HCA continues to invest in ethics and compliance programs and has been repeatedly recognized among the World’s Most Ethical Companies, which enhances its brand with regulators, payers and local communities. [39]
Key risks investors should watch
Even with strong momentum, HCA stock is not a one‑way trade. Based on the company’s filings and recent commentary, major risks include: [40]
- Policy and reimbursement risk
- The future of ACA premium subsidies / enhanced tax credits and related marketplace dynamics
- Potential Medicaid reforms and supplemental payment changes at the state level
- Broader federal budget pressures that could intensify Medicare sequestration or other cuts
- Labor and staffing
- Wage inflation for nurses, physicians and anesthesia/radiology groups
- Possible union activity, burnout and retention challenges despite HCA’s investment in training
- Debt and interest‑rate sensitivity
- Total debt above $44 billion as of September 30, 2025
- Need to refinance at acceptable rates if borrowing costs remain elevated [41]
- Operational and event risks
- Exposure to hurricanes and other natural disasters, as seen in prior years
- Cybersecurity threats to hospital systems and patient data
- Potential for local competitive responses or new entrants in key markets
- Valuation and sentiment risk
- After a near‑parabolic run to all‑time highs, any earnings miss, policy disappointment or macro wobble could trigger a sharper pullback than fundamentals alone would suggest.
- Some short‑term models (like StockScan’s 30‑day forecast) already flag the stock as vulnerable to a near‑term correction even while longer‑term projections remain constructive. [42]
Is HCA Healthcare stock a buy now?
Recent coverage from outlets like Forbes and Zacks has framed HCA as a high‑quality compounder whose profit growth and cash flow still justify further upside over the long term, even after a stellar 2025. [43]
At the same time:
- Most fundamental analysts see more limited upside over the next 12 months, with average targets slightly below today’s price. [44]
- Technical and quantitative models increasingly argue the stock is over‑extended in the short run, with elevated risk of a pullback. [45]
So the setup looks something like this:
- For long‑term investors who believe in HCA’s strategy of outpatient expansion, workforce development and disciplined capital allocation, the stock still offers solid growth, strong cash returns and a dominant competitive position — but today’s price builds in a lot of that story already.
- For short‑term traders, the risk/reward is less attractive. After a huge move and with policy headlines looming into 2026, volatility around earnings, Washington news or macro data could be significant.
As always, this overview is informational only and not investment advice. Anyone considering HCA Healthcare stock should evaluate their own risk tolerance, time horizon, and portfolio needs — and, ideally, consult a qualified financial adviser — before making trading or investment decisions.
References
1. www.marketbeat.com, 2. www.beckershospitalreview.com, 3. www.marketbeat.com, 4. investor.hcahealthcare.com, 5. investor.hcahealthcare.com, 6. investor.hcahealthcare.com, 7. investor.hcahealthcare.com, 8. www.marketbeat.com, 9. investor.hcahealthcare.com, 10. investor.hcahealthcare.com, 11. investor.hcahealthcare.com, 12. investor.hcahealthcare.com, 13. www.marketbeat.com, 14. www.beckershospitalreview.com, 15. www.investing.com, 16. www.investing.com, 17. www.beckershospitalreview.com, 18. investor.hcahealthcare.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.investing.com, 21. www.marketbeat.com, 22. www.marketbeat.com, 23. www.marketbeat.com, 24. www.marketbeat.com, 25. investor.hcahealthcare.com, 26. www.marketbeat.com, 27. stockanalysis.com, 28. www.marketbeat.com, 29. stockscan.io, 30. stockanalysis.com, 31. www.marketbeat.com, 32. tickernerd.com, 33. www.trefis.com, 34. stockanalysis.com, 35. www.stout.com, 36. www.investing.com, 37. www.investing.com, 38. www.investing.com, 39. investor.hcahealthcare.com, 40. investor.hcahealthcare.com, 41. investor.hcahealthcare.com, 42. stockscan.io, 43. www.forbes.com, 44. www.marketbeat.com, 45. stockscan.io
