ConocoPhillips (COP) Stock in December 2025: Dividend Hike, Layoffs and 2026 Outlook After Q3 Earnings Beat

ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) heads into the final month of 2025 as one of the most hotly debated energy stocks on Wall Street. On Tuesday, December 2, 2025, COP closed at $89.29, down 1.07% on the day, even as the S&P 500 and Dow Jones notched modest gains. That leaves the stock about 17% below its 52‑week high of $107.67, reached on December 3 last year, and still in the lower half of its trading range between $79.88 and $108.74. ^[1]

Yet analysts broadly agree the stock may be trading at a discount: consensus 12‑month price targets cluster around $113–$116, implying roughly 25–30% upside from current levels. ^[2]

This article pulls together the latest news, forecasts and expert commentary as of December 2, 2025, to help you understand what’s really going on with ConocoPhillips stock.

Quick snapshot: COP stock on 2 December 2025

• Closing price: $89.29 (‑1.07% on the day). ^[3]
• Day’s range: $88.58–$90.40, with about 5.1 million shares traded – below the 50‑day average of roughly 6.5 million, according to MarketWatch. ^[4]
• 52‑week range: $79.88–$108.74. ^[5]
• Market cap: Around $110 billion. ^[6]
• Trailing P/E: ~12.6x, with trailing‑12‑month revenue of $61.3 billion and net income of $8.8 billion. ^[7]
• Dividend: Annualized $3.36 per share, a yield of about 3.7–3.8% at the current price. ^[8]

On December 2, COP underperformed the broader market: the S&P 500 rose 0.25% and the Dow gained 0.39%, while ConocoPhillips slipped, ending a three‑day winning streak. ^[9]

Over the last year, a combination of weaker oil prices and cyclical energy-sector pessimism has pushed COP down by roughly mid‑teens to low‑20% in percentage terms, even as the S&P 500 has gained double digits. ^[10] Several analyses from The Motley Fool and Nasdaq have highlighted this underperformance versus both the broader market and the energy sector, noting that Brent crude has fallen more than 15% over the same period and recently hovered near $60 a barrel. ^[11]

Q3 2025 earnings: a beat, a bigger dividend and early 2026 guidance

The latest major catalyst for COP is its third‑quarter 2025 earnings report, released on November 6.

Headline numbers

According to the company’s press release and third‑party summaries: ^[12]

• Q3 2025 earnings:
  • Net income: $1.7 billion, or $1.38 per share, versus $2.1 billion ($1.76 per share) a year earlier.
  • Adjusted EPS:$1.61, slightly below last year’s $1.78 but above Wall Street’s consensus estimate of $1.43 compiled by LSEG. ^[13]
• Cash generation:
  • Cash provided by operating activities: $5.9 billion.
  • Cash from operations (CFO), excluding working capital: $5.4 billion. ^[14]
• Production:
  • Q3 production averaged 2.399 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (MBOED), up 482 MBOED versus a year ago.
  • Lower 48 production alone was 1.528 MBOED, with strong contributions from the Delaware and Eagle Ford basins. ^[15]
• Realized prices:
  • Average realized price was $46.44 per BOE, about 14% lower than the $54.18 per BOE realized in Q3 2024, highlighting the drag from softer oil and gas pricing. ^[16]

Despite weaker commodity prices, higher volumes – boosted by the Marathon Oil acquisition and organic growth – plus cost cuts allowed COP to beat profit expectations. RBC Capital Markets called it a “strong quarter,” while J.P. Morgan flagged concerns about rising costs at the company’s flagship Willow project in Alaska. ^[17]

Dividend hike and shareholder returns

The company continues to lean heavily into shareholder payouts:

• ConocoPhillips raised its ordinary quarterly dividend by 8% to $0.84 per share, payable December 1, 2025 to shareholders of record on November 17. ^[18]
• That implies annualized dividends of $3.36 per share, translating to a yield of roughly 3.7–3.8% at the current share price. ^[19]
• In Q3 alone, the company returned more than $2.2 billion to shareholders: about $1.3 billion via buybacks and $1.0 billion through the ordinary dividend. ^[20]

Management reiterated its ambition to deliver “top‑quartile dividend growth in the S&P 500”, supported by a growing base of low‑cost barrels and a strong balance sheet. ^[21]

2025–2026 guidance

Alongside earnings, ConocoPhillips updated guidance: ^[22]

• 2025 production guidance raised to 2.375 MBOED (from 2.35–2.37 MBOED).
• 2025 adjusted operating cost guidance cut to $10.6 billion (from $10.7–$10.9 billion).
• Preliminary 2026 guidance:
  • Capital expenditures: ~$12 billion (about $0.5 billion lower than 2025’s midpoint guidance).
  • Adjusted operating costs: $10.2 billion, down from 2025.
  • Underlying production growth: 0–2%.

The company also reaffirmed a long‑term goal of generating about $7 billion in incremental annual free cash flow by 2029, including roughly $1 billion per year from 2026 through 2028, as Willow, LNG and other projects ramp up. ^[23]

Strategy in 2025: job cuts, mega‑projects and asset sales

The sunny dividend story sits alongside a surprisingly aggressive cost‑cutting and portfolio reshaping drive.

Deep workforce reductions

In early September 2025, Reuters reported that ConocoPhillips plans to cut 20–25% of its global workforce – between 2,600 and 3,250 employees out of roughly 13,000 – as part of a restructuring program internally dubbed “Competitive Edge.” ^[24]

Key points from that report: ^[25]

• The move follows several quarters of rising controllable costs, from around $11 per barrel in 2021 to about $13 in 2024.
• Management is targeting over $1 billion in new cost savings, on top of more than $1 billion of synergies from the $22.5 billion Marathon Oil acquisition, completed in 2024.
• The announcement initially spooked the market: COP shares fell about 4.5% on the day, outpacing a decline in the broader energy index.

Subsequent reports indicate the company has begun implementing layoffs, including in its Canadian operations, with the restructuring expected to run through 2026. ^[26]

Willow and LNG: capital‑intensive but central to the story

ConocoPhillips’ long‑term thesis now revolves around a handful of mega‑projects:

• Willow (Alaska):
  • Project capital has been revised up by $1.5 billion to a range of $8.5–$9 billion, largely due to inflation and cost escalation on Alaska’s North Slope. ^[27]
  • The project is nearing 50% completion, with first oil now expected in early 2029. ^[28]
• Global LNG portfolio:
  • ConocoPhillips is advancing equity LNG projects in Qatar (North Field East and South) and at Port Arthur LNG (PALNG) on the U.S. Gulf Coast.
  • Total LNG project capital guidance has been reduced to $3.4 billion after securing a $0.6 billion credit; management says around 80% of that capital has already been spent and projects remain on schedule, with first LNG from NFE expected in 2026. ^[29]

These projects, while expensive, are central to Conoco’s plan to grow free cash flow for the rest of the decade. Several independent analyses – including reports on Seeking Alpha and The Motley Fool – emphasize that Willow plus LNG could add around $7 billion of incremental annual free cash flow by 2029 if executed on time and on budget. ^[30]

Asset sales and portfolio sharpening

To help fund its growth and shareholder returns, ConocoPhillips is actively recycling capital:

• The company has completed more than $3 billion of asset dispositions in 2025, including a $1.3 billion sale of Anadarko Basin assets, and expects to reach roughly $5 billion in dispositions by the end of 2026. ^[31]
• Recent Reuters coverage also highlights gas discoveries offshore southeastern Australia and a memorandum of understanding with Syria’s energy ministry and Novaterra to expand cooperation in the natural gas sector. ^[32]

Taken together, 2025 has been a year of simultaneous expansion and retrenchment: COP is building for long‑term growth while aggressively slimming down its cost base and exiting lower‑return assets.

Fresh analyst views and price targets as of early December 2025

Consensus remains bullish, with 25–30% implied upside

Across major data providers, Wall Street’s view is remarkably consistent:

• StockAnalysis.com:
  • 17 analysts, average rating “Buy”.
  • Average 12‑month price target $115.53, implying about 29% upside from $89.29.
  • Target range: $100–$139. ^[33]
• MarketBeat:
  • 25 analysts, consensus rating “Moderate Buy” with 19 Buy and 6 Hold ratings and no Sells. ^[34]
  • Average price target around $115.16, also implying close to 29% upside. ^[35]
• TickerNerd (updated December 2, 2025):
  • 35 Wall Street analysts, consensus bullish.
  • 23 Buy, 6 Hold, 0 Sell.
  • Median price target: $113.50, with a range from $98 to $131.
  • Based on a prevailing price of $90.26, the median target implies about 25.7% upside over the next 12 months. ^[36]

Put simply: no major research house currently has COP rated “Sell,” and most see double‑digit percentage upside from today’s levels.

Recent rating and target changes

Since the Q3 report and subsequent market volatility, several banks have updated their views:

• RBC Capital: Lifted its target from $113 to $118 and reiterated an “outperform” / “Buy” rating, citing strong production growth and cost reductions offsetting weaker prices. ^[37]
• UBS: Trimmed its target from $122 to $117 but maintained a Strong Buy rating. ^[38]
• Susquehanna: Cut its target slightly (e.g., $113 → $110) while keeping a Buy rating. ^[39]
• Wells Fargo: Initiated coverage with a Hold rating and a $100 target, effectively treating COP as fairly valued near the bottom of its trading range. ^[40]
• Morgan Stanley: Nudged its target down from $123 to $122 but stayed Overweight. ^[41]

A recent DefenseWorld round‑up of rating changes for COP confirms this mixed pattern: small downward adjustments to targets, but ratings largely intact in the Buy / Outperform / Overweight camp. ^[42]

Technical and trading calls

Short‑term traders are also weighing in:

• In a December 2 report on “Best Oil & Gas Stocks in December 2025,” DailyForex highlighted ConocoPhillips as one of seven attractive names and described COP as “inexpensive” with a P/E of 12.53 versus 30.61 for the S&P 500. ^[43]
• The same analysis notes COP’s cost‑of‑supply inventory below $40 per barrel, which should allow it to generate free cash flow even at depressed oil prices, and points to long‑cycle LNG and Alaska investments – including a recent gas MOU in Syria – as under‑appreciated catalysts. ^[44]
• The author outlines a trading plan:
  • Entry: $86.88–$89.39
  • Take profit: $107.22–$112.86
  • Stop loss: $77.23–$81.29
  • Implied risk/reward: about 2.1:1. ^[45]

Meanwhile, a number of Seeking Alpha contributors describe COP as a “cash cow” trading near the bottom of its range, emphasizing its 3.6–3.8% dividend yield, strong free‑cash‑flow generation and long‑term LNG growth, though some caution that near‑term returns may be muted given high capex and soft oil prices. ^[46]

Institutional interest and dividend appeal

A fresh December 2 article from MarketBeat highlights that Lido Advisors LLC increased its COP holdings by 41.5% in Q2, buying nearly 80,000 additional shares to hold about 272,000 shares worth roughly $24.4 million. It also notes that institutional investors and hedge funds collectively own over 82% of ConocoPhillips’ shares, underscoring strong participation from “smart money.” ^[47]

The same piece reiterates: ^[48]

• The new $0.84 quarterly dividend equates to $3.36 annually and about a 3.8% yield.
• COP’s payout ratio stands around 47–48% of earnings, leaving room for continued buybacks and reinvestment.
• The company maintains a solid balance sheet with a debt‑to‑equity ratio in the mid‑30% range and current ratio above 1.2. ^[49]

For income‑oriented investors, COP is also showing up on “best dividend stocks” and “stable income” lists from CNBC and other outlets, often grouped with blue‑chip names like IBM and high‑yield pipeline operators. ^[50]

Valuation check: is COP really cheap?

On most standard metrics, ConocoPhillips trades at a discount to the broader market and many large‑cap peers:

• Trailing P/E: ~12.6x; forward P/E around the mid‑teens, depending on the forecast used. ^[51]
• Price‑to‑sales: ~1.8x; price‑to‑book: ~1.7x, levels that GuruFocus and other value‑oriented sites describe as close to historical lows. ^[52]
• Net margin: ~14–15%, with operating margin nearing 20% and return on equity about 15%. ^[53]
• Dividend yield: Around 3.7–3.8% with a commitment to grow the base dividend over time. ^[54]

DailyForex explicitly calls COP “an inexpensive stock” relative to the S&P 500, emphasizing that its cost‑of‑supply inventory under $40 per barrel offers a margin of safety in a world where Fitch and other forecasters are using base‑case WTI assumptions around $60–$65 in the mid‑2020s. ^[55]

Independent fair‑value models from platforms like Simply Wall St and GuruFocus (summarized in TS2’s November 29 COP update) generally put intrinsic value estimates in the low‑$110s, suggesting COP could be 20–25% undervalued if those assumptions prove correct. TS2 Tech+1

Key risks and what to watch into 2026

Despite the bullish long‑term case, recent commentary stresses several non‑trivial risks:

1. Oil and gas price volatility
   • COP’s earnings and cash flows remain highly sensitive to WTI crude and Henry Hub gas prices. Fitch’s base case assumes WTI around $65 in 2025 and $60 in 2026–27, but some strategists warn about a potential 2026 oil glut if OPEC+ supply, U.S. shale growth and weaker demand collide – a scenario Reuters has highlighted as a key overhang on energy equities. TS2 Tech+1
2. Execution risk at mega‑projects
   • Willow’s cost increase to $8.5–$9 billion has already triggered market concern, and any further cost inflation or delays could erode returns. ^[56]
   • LNG projects in Qatar and on the U.S. Gulf Coast are large, complex and politically sensitive; missteps could hurt the 2026–2030 free cash flow story. ^[57]
3. Workforce restructuring and morale
   • Cutting 20–25% of the workforce may significantly lower costs but also risks operational disruption, loss of key talent and cultural strain if not carefully managed. ^[58]
4. Geopolitical and regulatory exposure
   • ConocoPhillips operates in regions such as Alaska, Norway, Syria, Australia and Qatar, each with its own regulatory, environmental and geopolitical challenges – from Arctic permitting to sanctions and shifting European climate policy. ^[59]
5. Near‑term sentiment headwinds
   • Articles with titles like “What’s Wrong With ConocoPhillips Stock Right Now?” and “ConocoPhillips Well‑Placed Long Term, But Arguably Not As Well For The Near Term” capture the current mood: investors worry that elevated capex and a weak oil tape may cap returns in 2025–26, even if the 2029 free‑cash‑flow story is compelling. ^[60]

2026 outlook: what the latest forecasts are really saying

Putting all the recent analysis together, a picture emerges:

• Earnings profile
  • Consensus forecasts compiled by StockAnalysis anticipate EPS of about $6.45 in 2025, down from $7.81 in 2024, before edging slightly higher to $6.52 in 2026 – a modest 1% growth. ^[61]
  • Revenue is expected to grow about 8% in 2025 to roughly $61 billion, then dip by ~4% in 2026 as commodity prices normalize. ^[62]
• Free cash flow and capital allocation
  • Management’s guidance and recent commentary from The Motley Fool and Seeking Alpha point to steady free‑cash‑flow growth from 2026 onward, driven by Marathon Oil synergies, Willow, and LNG contributions – with the company targeting that $7 billion incremental FCF by 2029. ^[63]
  • Given the current dividend, buyback activity and capital budget, COP appears committed to returning a significant portion of cash to shareholders while keeping leverage moderate. ^[64]
• Analyst targets imply a “mid‑cycle” world
  • Consensus price targets in the low‑ to mid‑$110s implicitly assume mid‑cycle oil prices, successful execution on Willow and LNG, and no severe recession. ^[65]
  • If oil prices stay depressed for an extended period or capital costs blow out, those numbers would likely be revised down.

In other words, Wall Street’s base case is cautiously optimistic: COP is expected to churn out solid – but not explosive – EPS growth in 2026, with the real fireworks coming later in the decade if its mega‑projects and portfolio reshuffle deliver as promised.

Is ConocoPhillips stock a buy after its 2025 pullback?

From the latest December 2025 data, three broad narratives emerge:

1. The bear case (near‑term pessimists):
   • Oil and gas prices remain under pressure, weighing on earnings.
   • Willow costs are rising; capex is high and production growth in 2026 is modest at 0–2%. ^[66]
   • Massive layoffs highlight how much internal belt‑tightening is still needed. ^[67]
2. The base case (consensus view):
   • COP continues generating strong free cash flow at mid‑cycle oil prices around $60–$65. TS2 Tech+2Reuters+2
   • The dividend grows steadily and buybacks remain robust.
   • 2026 is a “transition year” with disciplined capex and modest growth, setting the stage for a FCF inflection toward 2028–2029. ^[68]
3. The bull case (long‑term optimists):
   • Energy markets tighten again later in the decade, lifting oil and LNG prices above mid‑cycle assumptions.
   • Willow, LNG and new gas discoveries (Australia, Syria) hit timelines and budgets, adding billions in incremental FCF. ^[69]
   • COP’s valuation rerates closer to intrinsic estimates in the low‑$110s or above, allowing total returns boosted by both price appreciation and a near‑4% yield. Ticker Nerd+3TS2 Tech+3StockAnalysis+3

Whether COP fits your portfolio depends on:

• Your view on long‑term oil & gas demand and prices.
• Your tolerance for commodity and project‑execution risk.
• How much value you place on a growing dividend with significant buybacks.

What the December 2, 2025 snapshot makes clear is that ConocoPhillips is not being priced as if everything will go right. The market is discounting cyclical and project‑specific risks, even as analysts and management map out a path to meaningfully higher free cash flow by 2029.

For investors willing to ride out volatility, COP is widely seen – by brokers, independent analysts and institutional buyers – as a high‑quality, cash‑generative energy play trading at a mid‑cycle discount. ^[70]

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security. Always do your own research or consult a qualified financial adviser before making investment decisions.

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